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Gold Surges, Prepares To Make Run For All Time Highs

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The market is starting to appreciate the "controlled demolition" of the fiat system. The concern: the thin line between controlled and uncontrolled is one brief freakout away. In which case, gold will certainly be below lead on the valuation chain.

 

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Tue, 05/04/2010 - 10:35 | 330718 J.Caesar
J.Caesar's picture
Gold Surges

wierd choice of verbs, does nothing is more apt. 

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 10:41 | 330731 yipcarl
yipcarl's picture

yea 'surges'  The US and world on the verge of default and gold is at 1200?  Whoop T Facking doo.  Gold is a joke. I heard someone say diamonds instead of gold.  I had to laugh at that one too but when he said, 'think of having a half mil in gold, how do you transport it'? I had to laugh. 

 

Oh and Gold down now for the day, I guess the surge turned out to not even be a trickle.....

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 10:55 | 330767 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Wrong forum pal. 

Try you-tube.

Troglodytes like you have been saying this since gold $250.00.

You will continue to be embarassed by your comments.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 10:59 | 330777 yipcarl
yipcarl's picture

I bought gold at 400 and sold it just over 1000 you are retard.  Go back to your porn scumbag.  Just because your a porn watching roach do you have to subject the rest of us to it?  You Russian too like IGOR?  Boy you bloaks are in good company.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:28 | 330989 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

HOMOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 16:26 | 331412 i.knoknot
i.knoknot's picture

yipcarl ... "I bought gold at 400 and sold it just over 1000 you are retard."

i'm happy for your claimed gains, but that sentence is just asking for ...

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 10:59 | 330780 Pladizow
Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:09 | 330808 yipcarl
yipcarl's picture

Your joking right?  You gold bugs are so backwards.  I know all about the fiat currency and fractional reserve joke of a system we have thanks for that though.  What's funny to me is that you guys understand that but somehow you think Gold is immune to the joke that has become our currency system.  Wake the F up dude.  If you think we are controlled in regard to our whole money system that is based on a sham(which is true) but you think gold is the answer is laughable.  You and Rocky Racoon need to get together porn guy.  Time to grab the lube and take a break eh? Your a pig.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:29 | 330862 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

I just farted in your general direction.

I am Chumbawamba.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:19 | 330968 David449420
David449420's picture

"Now Go Away, or I shall taunt you a second time"

Couldn't resist.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:26 | 330981 OpenEyes
OpenEyes's picture

+1000 my first actual laugh of the day!

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:26 | 330984 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

I appoligize for offending you with a picture of a woman.

Perhaps you would prefer a big old cock avitar?

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 14:53 | 331226 tmosley
tmosley's picture

If you don't like it, propose a reasonable alternative.  From where I am sitting, gold and silver are the ONLY alternatives.  I asked you about this before, and you just said "Sell your gold for starters", but you offered no better place, even though you have admitted to knowing that fiat currencies are in bad shape.  This stinks of defeatism.

As for today's plunge, sure, it might be choppy, wet, and cold sitting in a life boat, but I would much rather be there than be on the Titanic as it upends, laughing at all the suckers in the lifeboats.

Wheeeeeee!  Look how high I am!  You lifeboatbugs are IDIOTS!  Hey what the--

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 16:36 | 331449 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Don't mess with the Coon, pal!  I'll rip your eyes out.  Then I shall follow Chumba's lead and fart in your general direction.  Of course, raccoons don't have great bowel control, so you might duck.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 19:37 | 331754 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

That was very funny Rocky.

You too are now hereby invited to the Drinks Jamboree when gold gets to $50k.  Assuming we still have a functioning of course.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 19:37 | 331755 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

That was very funny Rocky.

You too are now hereby invited to the Drinks Jamboree when gold gets to $50k.  Assuming we still have a functioning society of course.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 20:53 | 331826 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Hey!  I think I'm already seeing double.

I'll attend, of course, but it'll be club soda for me.

"You like me, you really like me!"

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 22:05 | 331895 Hulk
Hulk's picture

l attend, of course, but it'll be club soda for me.

Good idea, never know when the blue ticks will be on your ass...

"You like me, you really like me!"

LOL, now thats funny!

 

 

 

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 10:41 | 330730 Jesse
Jesse's picture

 

For now I would be content to see gold hold up in a general sell off.

Silver is still at least half an industrial metal, so it will get hit hard.

But gold and the dollar higher in a flight to safety would be a real trend change if it holds up.

Love the phrase, 'controlled demolition of fiat currencies.'

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 10:43 | 330735 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Silver is a commodity and trades as one. Sorry silver bugs, it's not poor mans gold, never was.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 10:48 | 330753 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Sorry, but Silver is Money..................and also, has an indusrial side.

The founders gave specific valuations, and wts, to both Gold & Silver.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 10:57 | 330773 nathan1234
nathan1234's picture

Silver is a precious metal . Govts want it to be a commodity and will fail. The CFTC Chairman & his goons should be behind bars for being in cahoots with the manipluation by JPM, Goldman et al.

My aplogies but you need to read the entire history of silver. Do not be taken in by fiat currency. No fiat currency has ever lasted more than 250 years in history.

Currencies come and go but Gold & Silver have always retained value.

 

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 14:35 | 331203 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I couldn't decide if I should junk this comment, or waste my time responding....

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 10:44 | 330736 Instant Karma
Instant Karma's picture

When the shit hits the fan everything goes down the drain for a while. Question is, what do you want to hold onto for a while?

Paper curency?

A bond?

A stock certificate?

A silver or gold coin?

(I take a little currency and the coins).

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 10:45 | 330746 JiangxiDad
JiangxiDad's picture

Fascinating to watch gold price turn south in straight line after run up before. What to make of it is the question.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:50 | 330923 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I just checked at kitco.com which has a handy breakdown of gold's price movement:

1) price due to change in US$

2) price change due to predominant buying/selling

US$ is up so much, that is why gold is down, even though there is predominant buying now (11:50).

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 10:46 | 330747 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Gold will rise and rise. The stage is set. With each nerve jarring report from Europe gold will hit new levels and gather momentum. Once we hit the old record high watch out. Then the stampede will begin.

Weak hands and daytraders have been wrung out of gold positions over the last 4 months. What you're seeing now are defensive moves, not gold price speculation or increased demand for jewelry. Wealthy individuals, fund and asset managers are getting defensive in light of disturbing news from Europe and Asia with implications for the US. After months of chasing yield and betting on equities it's an academic move. 

The fervor for defensive investments wil drive gold higher in the immediate future. As the sovereign wealth crisis unfolds gold will be a premium investment and the price will rise. In the back of large investor's minds is the big fear is that we are witnessing the start of Financial Crisis Part Deux. Banks (big banks), insurance companies and big investors are once again in the center of a growing storm. A credit crisis is possible like in 2008-9. Worse, this crisis may involve BOTH private and sovereign debt simultaneously. The ramifications of that are really spooky. Gold.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 16:41 | 331464 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

No argument from me.   Gold is "down" because it is serving its ultimate purpose:  The store of value is being tapped to gain liquidity -- margin calls, get cash for other buys, etc.  Nothing strange about this development.  The silver market on the other hand is so small that the boyz can manipulate it easily in order to make a few quick-move bucks.  Again, no mystery.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 10:46 | 330748 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

Barrick was above water for some time, but has now submerged too.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 10:48 | 330752 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

You would think metals, commodities and agriculture would be UP in a flight to safety borne out of currency fears, wouldn't you?

But doesn't seem to work in "investor" never-never land...

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 10:53 | 330760 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh,Baaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhh

It's the sheeples.These goonie birds, are so far off the deck, it's amazing.

Two years ago, ( I live in N Texas area), our economy (still good,and moving up slowly) was really smoking...as I drove the freeway, I thought this country is great, and I do not think anything man made(short of nuclear war), can stop this MACHINE.

Boy, did I get a wake up call.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:09 | 330805 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

poker is more about the players at the table, than the hands the have been dealt

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 10:56 | 330771 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

This selloff is all being orchestrated as a threat to the Senators. They want to be sure they are aware of how quickly the can crash the markets if either the Audit the Fed, Volcker Rule and bank size cap amendments are passed. Further proof of why we need to just call their bluff.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:01 | 330791 Racer
Racer's picture

Yes, they are telling them to watch out or look what we will do!

Do you remember that 700 point drop when they were dithering about TARP?

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:12 | 330817 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

My favorite aspect is GS being flat to green two huge down days in a week meanwhile they are the ones under criminal investigation. This basically tells you how controlled the markets are by their trading desk since they are unloading large amounts of stock and likely turned off the computers in order to buoy their own PPS. How about this threat from a bank lobbyist this morning:

 

Out just minutes ago from the WSJ. Bernie Sanders will push the Audit the Fed amendment today. Here was the response from a Lobbyist who happens to be a former Fed official.

WSJ:
"This is a major step in the direction of putting Fed monetary policy, who it lends to, who it extends credit to ... under political scrutiny and subject to political questioning," said John Dearie, a former Fed official who is now executive vice president of policy for the Financial Services Forum.

"That's a very, very, very dangerous thing, the implications of which would be shouldered by the American people," he said

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:58 | 330947 ayanni
ayanni's picture

+1

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 10:58 | 330774 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

With any significant move whether its gold or silver, there is instantaneous look of panic selling so the big money can buy in cheaper.  The crooks of the world can't get in at higher prices than the little guys now can they?  They have to make it look like there is a disconnect somehow from everything.  Realization is that gold and silver will be much much higher as things get desperate on the horizon.

Can we put together a CDS regarding whether CNBC will shut down off the air by a certain time?  With derivitave bets on who ends up where?  LOL

 

GOLD AND SILVER will be king shortly.....Today is just another buying opportunity for each, especially silver

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 10:59 | 330775 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Bernanke, you are NO artist.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:00 | 330786 maneco
maneco's picture

You spoke too early! The Crimex boys have just gone into action! Spot gold is now down $8.5!!!

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:01 | 330790 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

THEE MUST SEE VIDEO FOR EVERYONE POSTING:

http://montanasoundmoney.org/parksvideo.html

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:04 | 330796 mchandler@ameri...
mchandler@ameritech.net's picture

Now look what you did. Posted this and Gold is down 1.5% and Silver 5%.

All we need is for Obama to break into regualarly schedualed TV and tell us how good everything is and stocks will drop too.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 16:44 | 331479 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Correlation does not presuppose causation.

Wed, 05/05/2010 - 02:20 | 332070 i.knoknot
i.knoknot's picture

i dunno, the politicians seems to think the dow->up = everything is fine...

(we're friggin doomed)

Wed, 05/05/2010 - 17:30 | 333317 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Good follow up...  You like the Mogambo as well I see.

Thu, 05/06/2010 - 06:19 | 334067 i.knoknot
i.knoknot's picture

DR in general... rox.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:06 | 330802 godfader
godfader's picture

TBT down, Silver down, Gold down. DX up, Bonds up. What a beautiful day.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:10 | 330811 Gordon Freeman
Gordon Freeman's picture

Why is it that so many at ZH always imagine that severe currency fluctuations will return us straight to the Stone Age, with survival level living and mass anarchy?  Do not pass Go, do not collect $200. 

This is all hyper-ventilating BS--almost any scenario falls well short of the Apocalypse, and offers ample opportunities for profitable investing.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 14:13 | 331172 Acrylicist
Acrylicist's picture

Without a supply of affordable and reliable oil, we are not stone age, but definitely pre-green revolution age without the easy access to fertilizers, pesticides, and automation for planting, harvesting and transportation.  If currency fluctuations get wild and last more than a year, Big Agriculture is going to have some problems keeping the corn and wheat flowing into the maws of the world.

A few million First Worlder's who have never known what hunger truly is will certainly be the closest we'll get to a real Zombie Apocalypse. 

 

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:12 | 330816 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

trav - while I acknowledge you have a point, especially early on in such a senario, later on where would the fuel come from to run the Apache?

 

I also think it is possible for food delivery systems in the US to break down, maybe resuming as a government monopoly.  Food has to get hauled a long way in America.

For a lot of reasons, it's empowering to be self-sufficient.

"A man is rich in proportion to the number of things which he can afford to let alone."

http://classiclit.about.com/od/waldenhdthoreau/a/aa_waldenquote.htm

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:57 | 331044 Hulk
Hulk's picture

fuel for the apache's will come from coal...

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:14 | 330819 What_Me_Worry
What_Me_Worry's picture

PAPER gold and PAPER silver are down today.

At least the paper USD might actually be backed by a little gold.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:19 | 330826 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Would you pls extrapolate those decimal points?.

LOL

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:16 | 330824 LarryKudlow
LarryKudlow's picture

 Fools !

Gold may rise for a time, but once the realization sets in that there is deflation, gold will pull back violently !

Then BUY Gold Stocks or Gold Bars

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:38 | 331001 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

We've been in a 30yr secular deflation.

What have interest rates done since the Volker highs in the '80's? - Gone only down.

The media has pointed out "less inflation" over this time - isnt that just the manipulated media beind told not to mention the "D" word?

What has gold done since then?

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:19 | 330828 yipcarl
yipcarl's picture

What's happening goldbugs?  Should gold be at like 1500 by now?  Why is it down so much today in light of what's happening? scratching my ass over here trying to figure it out.  LOL.  Fiat currency=joke

 

Gold is the answer=joke.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:24 | 330841 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Right, I'm sure it has nothing to do with the huge treasury auction tomorrow: http://www.ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/auctions...

It'll be back up by Friday.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:46 | 330908 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

How big are the two auctions tomorrow?

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:41 | 330891 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

IGNORE THIS TROLL!!  He expresses not an ounce of logic.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 14:13 | 331173 tmosley
tmosley's picture

This is true.  In the last thread he trolled, he expressly stated that his only purpose was to troll.

And I quote:


I don't think anything nor am I on here to make a grade.  I'm on here simply to get a rise of idiots that put all their faith in another manipulated medium.  It's really funny to me that's what you think I'm doing.  It's funny I'm 16 and have no job. Actually I'm 36 and I've made 300k this year so far.  BFD.  If I'm telling the truth do you think I care what you people say about me or my intelligence or? 

 

I'm on here to poke fun at people I think are misguided.  That's all.

 

This is from this thread: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gold-takes-one-german-fin-min-comments

This is the definition of trolling.  This joker needs to be banned. 

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 17:26 | 331566 akak
akak's picture

Please report him to "abuse@zerohedge.com".

I agree, he should be banned, as he is by his own admisstion only here to antagonize and disrupt this forum, which is despicable and nothing but contemptible.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:43 | 330900 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

It is totally anticipated that it will sell-off when there is market bloodbath. That's how you get it on sale. People sell it off in a panic to cover losses on paper. Seriously, you should consider adding a bit of physical PM to your portfolio when there is blood on the streets such as this.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:40 | 331008 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Your comments = JOKE!

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 14:09 | 331164 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

There is manipulation in the gold markets.  Cui bono?  Fiat???

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 16:47 | 331485 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

...scratching my ass over here trying to figure it out

That must be where your brains are.  I usually just scratch my head.

Fleas, you know.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:27 | 330851 AllSingingAllDa...
AllSingingAllDancingCrapof theworld's picture

Unless you plan to form a militia like the Taliban and basically ruthlessly murder people, your guns and ammo aren't going to be that useful.

And if we do...?

Took me a while to get the lead difference.  Most of my 1,300 are copper, JHP's 7.62 short Russians. Line up around a Red Jacket Firearms AK. Parkerized. Poly furniture. Red dot. -74 muzzle brake. droooOoOoOOlll....

Where was I?

Oh, I also have some gold and silver.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:36 | 330875 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

Hard to say if this sell-off today is marking the beginning of the much anticipated grand correction. If so, the sell off in physical gold and gold miners is very reminiscent of the 2008 crash when people threw out the baby with the bathwater. If so folks, this will be the LAST TIME to acquire physical gold, silver and platinum on the CHEAP. If this is the beginning of a larger correction, does anyone have suggestions on how low gold will likely get (levels of support)?  A level of support for the physical may give a good buy in point for gold miners?

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:58 | 330945 Jeanbon
Jeanbon's picture

do not buy miners at these levels.

 

If Gold breaks below 1160, the rally is over

 

If the USD continues to rally, better sell everything, also 

GOLD, it is the most crowded trade right now.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 14:17 | 331176 tmosley
tmosley's picture

If gold goes below where it was last week the rally is over?

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 17:06 | 331524 potatomafia
potatomafia's picture

Exactly T...  Where was gold the last time the DXY was at 83?  about $900... 

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 17:39 | 331594 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Yeah, it also bought about 30% more stuff (esp food and fuel) than it does now.

The currencies are in a race to the bottom. As such, the dollar index is WORTHLESS, except as an indicator of who is winning that race.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:42 | 330896 Young
Young's picture

The only thing that's gonna survive this blast is the dollar. /PL, /PA and /HG will get hit in the coming days, and CNBC will likely blame it on something random in China. Not sure yet about Gold and Silver though... Why dump those two? Are the big dogs overleveraged?

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:55 | 330934 godfader
godfader's picture

The guy in your avatar never wasted his time asking "WHY". If something went down below his comfort level he got the heck out of his position without asking any questions.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:01 | 330953 Young
Young's picture

That's why I already got my skinny behind out of everything yesterday - but agreed, no one ever knows exactly why anyways. So the question was moronic.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:39 | 331003 theworldisnotenough
theworldisnotenough's picture

If this is not manipulation I do not know what is...

Europe throws gold higher and in seeming coordination silver and gold sell off. it usually is not pushed down this much. They are making it too obvious.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:31 | 331115 GFORCE
GFORCE's picture

Garbage. This is just a big day for risk aversion. Gold has too much speculative positions.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:52 | 331144 theworldisnotenough
theworldisnotenough's picture

Speculative positions caused a $15 selloff in 30 minutes? Alot of shorts had to be covered? W(ho)TF is shorting gold as Europe is throwing it higher everyday?

 

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 12:47 | 331019 Jeanbon
Jeanbon's picture

IT IS THE PAULSON & SOROS PUMP AND DUMP MARKET

 

AND THEY WILL DUMP IT!

 

of course, they pumped the market well up, from December

until today...

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:01 | 331057 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

 

The impending USD rally I've warned about since 2009 has arrived.  It may last for some time too ...

MARKET UPDATES:
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-0

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:11 | 331065 Jeanbon
Jeanbon's picture

have a look at USDCHF, bottom building since may09

break out today. Could rally to CHF 1.19, if USD rallies,

sell everything else...

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:08 | 331073 Young
Young's picture

If this is a bust. The dollar will be the safe haven yet again. Not like it's gonna be the euro.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:16 | 331083 Jeanbon
Jeanbon's picture

please don't call it safe haven. It is just the withdrawal

of USD from risky assets globally and the heavy selling

of equities of US Funds in Europe. In USD,

European equity indices are heavily down.

Do you remember how smart everybody called Buffet

when he started to buy European equities because ot

the week USD.... enjoy the ride.

 

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:18 | 331086 Young
Young's picture

Just a figure of speech. Of course it's not "safe".

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:31 | 331112 Jeanbon
Jeanbon's picture

:-)

 

1164 is an interesting support in Gold. If we break below 

1160 today I guess we could have a heavy sell-off.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 16:45 | 331436 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

everyone knows when the stores are all closed, dollars won't buy a Stairway to Haven

 http://www.straightdope.com/columns/read/2448/whats-the-story-behind-led-zeppelins-stairway-to-heaven

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:40 | 331123 augmister
augmister's picture

Hit an air pocket and the passengers think the plane is going to crash... LOLOLOL

Everything will be in the toilet once deflation bites.  GS is going to want to convert those dollars they have been collecting from weak hands into PM bars and coins....the big value swap!  So just relax and watch it all go into the black hole.  But yes, the gold coins and silver will rise like the Phoenix. Hold yer powder (dollars) and keep it dry. Plenty of time to be buying the shiny shiny.  I want to buy it when the folks at GS do!

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:46 | 331138 yipcarl
yipcarl's picture

Is this post a joke?  Everything will be in the toliet but gold?  Can I have what your smoking?  Again with the goldbugs, the logic is so retarded.  everything is going to die and gold is going to die with it.  It's wholly manipulated and taking advice on gold from gold dealers is like thinking a honda salesman is going to tell you to go buy a ford.  How can you people be so right about the economy and our fiat money system etc but think gold is immune?  I guess Peter Schiff and the like have you all confused.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 14:39 | 331210 macroeconomist
macroeconomist's picture

If you wonder why and how that PMs are the safest of all investments and much more immune than anything else, I recommend you read a little bit of economic history..Particularly around 1980s for recent past. Or try to find an answer to this very simple question: When firms go bust, currencies are smashed in a race of devaluation with the hope of exporting more and monetizing debt and sovereign defaults follow one another, what do you do with your savings? And your answer is???

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 16:56 | 331506 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

The Yipster doesn't want an education.  He just wants to watch you try to be reasonable.  Don't waste your time on him (or whatever that thing under the bridge is).  Spend your time with those who are important to you and get them to understand.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 17:29 | 331573 Jeanbon
Jeanbon's picture

:-)

have a look at the daily macd, 3,10,16, traders settings....

daily chart show substantial negative divergence, the hourly

got crashed. The inverted H&S target for the XAU is 1205, we 

hit 1192 this morning with europeans running for the exit doors,

Spain Market down 6 %, Gold up 1 % to 1192 and then the 

sell-off.... :-( Paulson & Soros try to pump up this gold market

now for several month, if the USD continues to rally, Gold will

get crushed. Have a look at USDCHF, looks great.

 

 

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 20:57 | 331829 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

The Yipster is not here.  He has moved on to irritate somebody else.

Good info, thanks.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 13:49 | 331141 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

Gold, silver, brass, lead... FRNs  blah, blah, blah

When TSHTF, you're gonna wish you had invested in cheap vodka, Jack Daniels and top shelf gin, scotch. etc.

Booze.  The ultimate safe haven.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 16:59 | 331515 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Who said it has to be one or the other?   Stockpile whatever is good for trades.  Tobacco products are good too.  A lot of those folks who gave up the habit will find reason to start again.  I have boxes of generic nicotine polacrilex 4mg put aside as well as plenty of .223 in 20 round mags.  Oh, yeah, and some pre-65 silver coinage, gold Eagles in all 4 denominations, etc.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 22:11 | 331902 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Don't forget beauty items. Strange as it sounds, bobby pins were big selling items in the last depression...

Wed, 05/05/2010 - 17:39 | 333328 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Oooh, yeah!  I'll add those to the list.  And "nylons" and chocolate bars.

I have several lists which I keep current:

1. Things to grab immediately that are so common that we'll overlook them when in a hurry (like dumping out the bath vanity drawer into a carry bag).

2. A quick-shop list which makes for a fast run-thru at Sam's Wholesale (stuff like canned tuna, granola bars, bottled water, etc)

3. Large crap like the camping gear, generator, electric heater, shoes, etc.  I keep a duffle bag crammed with clothing and stuff that can just be grabbed in a hurry.

4. Notes on hardware of assorted caliber and ammo by each piece, so that none get left behind. 

These are kept up to date with current data as needed.  Gasoline is kept in various sizes up to 5 gal. and the larger containers have stabilizer added.

...just in case.  Even a natural disaster can benefit from bugging out. 

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 14:32 | 331197 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Gold support seems to be hitting around $1168.  If that breaks it could be hell for equities et al; this if my thesis that it is PMs leading the markets is a correct presumption.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 14:33 | 331200 Marmaduke Chuffnell
Marmaduke Chuffnell's picture

Do not exchange honest money for dishonest.

Do not convert your true gold for fool's gold.

There are no more markets, only manipulations.

Equity values have no bearing in fundamentals--casino fool's tokens

Bonds are propped by their issuing gov'ts--how long can you drink your own piss?

All the paper IOUs are just wealth traps which will default.

When again the confidence of the system slips, no IOUs will retain value.

Hold honest money (gold) until the dishonesty is driven from the corrupt system.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 15:30 | 331287 Arm
Arm's picture

Therein lies the mistake.  Assets are denominated in currency.  Very much like chips represent money on a poker table.  Adding more chips without increasing the money paid to the house does not increase the wealth; you just increase the lower the value of each chip.  In  a financial meltdown 95% of the poker chips are taken off the table.  Every poker chip then represents 20x more money.

Gold is a bit like bypassing the chips altogether.  You directly take a couple of dollars from the poker pot.  That is fine as a wealth preservation technique.  Just be conscious that you will not actually increase the number of dollars you have.  It seems rather odd how goldbugs believe that fiat will collapse, but somehow believe that they will still be able to sell the gold for 5x more poker chips than they paid and then be able to buy products with those poker chip... a bit of a paradox. 

Because there is no underlying in fiat.  A collapse simply eliminates the poker chips.  They cease to count.  Gold has no reference anymore to poker chips. 

Now comes the question of whether gold will indeed be the best store of value.  I think the deep implications are not understood.

1) It will likely get confiscated by the government.  Because it is rare, and most is kept in public vaults expropriation is very straight-forward.  This happened in the 1930's.  Some goldbugs recognize this but assume that they can just store the money in their gold vault and that people will readily accept it even though it will not be redeemable.  In this form gold is very hard to use in everyday commerce.  Essentially it requires constant verification of weight and quality in every transaction which cannot be done clandestinely.  In the past gold was used as a clearing currency only to be used for very large transactions.  Everyday use was reserved for copper and silver coins

2) You still assume that gold is money.  Even at its best, it is a monetized metal.  This means that gold provides no benefit on its own.  You must still exchange it for goods which hold real value use.  Thus you may find in the future that a chicken suddenly is worth an ounce of gold.  You may not be as rich as you think. 

3) Gold is very easy to steal because it is a low volume easily melted commodity.  Even if you have gold at home you may soon find that your neighbors rob you.  It is unrealistic to belief that you will be able to enjoy high prosperity while your neighbors endure a deep economic crisis.

 

If we must go to apocalyptic scenarios I think the best investment is arable land in a politicaly stable nation.

In a more reasonable note, I think that in the mid-term we will just see the demise of current currencies for a new fiat based currency, something very similar to what happened in Argentina

 

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 16:29 | 331431 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

In the 1970's 1oz of gold bought a really nice suit. It still buys a really nice suit today. You can buy a hell of a lot a chickens....

PS: my landlord accepts gold as payment for rent

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 16:49 | 331483 i.knoknot
i.knoknot's picture

Arm, you're clearly not trolling here, and elements of your critique have merit, but it's much simpler than most of those short-term failings of the metal (or any asset) would indicate.

over the long-term, people will store their 'extra' effort in some form of asset. it seems like that 'extra' effort has an inherent half-life, regardless of where you put it... it kind of goes stale for most of us non-squid-types. we try to perseve it anyway - a TV, APPL, gold, a house, etc.

TVs break, Steve Jobs will die, gold might buy a chicken in hard times. houses break - trust me! (oddly, my house doesn't seem worth any less now than when i got it. i still like my house as much as when i bought it... apparently others don't - but so what)

over the course of time, shiny jewels/metals have seemed special (emotionally - see the nesting crow - and industrially).

everything breaks when TSHTF. nothing can be counted on. it's when the dust settles again that i expect my bet to pay off.

historically, shiny things have been pretty reliable, and an oz of gold has bought an average menial man-week of labor for a long time. few other investments can make that claim (liquor, cigars, good wine?)

again, everything is broken right now, and will probably be so for a while. even though it all looks good on the outside.

you are not entirely wrong in your critique, but in a different context, you are not entirely right. and FWIW, i feel the same way about the insanity of jewels... pretty pieces of glass to me. but jewels work for some...

buy some coins, 'bury them' for your kids. does that seem so insane for the long-term? certainly not optimal, but hardly insane.

(pretty funny the headline and the resulting market...)

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 17:17 | 331528 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Kudos to this thread!  Good discussion and good points, all valid in their own scenarios.  Problem is, we are all guessing as to how the situation will turn out.  The one attribute of gold that makes it have a value of any kind is that it is also a luxury.  (As is illustrated by the assorted trolls in pointing out that one cannot eat gold.) Throwing this attribute into the mix gives gold (and silver) a much more powerful role in surviving as money.  This luxury factor is often overlooked.  The additional fact that it cannot be created out of thin air, and it cannot be acquired without great expense and labor is important.  Oh, yes, it is also a scarce element on the periodic table.   Booze, bullets, gardens, tobacco, and all the rest are consumables -- gold is not.  Real estate and arable land deteriorate and must be refurbished -- gold does not require any maintenance.

Wed, 05/05/2010 - 02:29 | 332073 i.knoknot
i.knoknot's picture

then there's liquidity... obviously pretty important to the economists.

i bring that up because even when things are pretty sketchy, gold may buy you a chicken... or a seat on the "train outta here" for you and your family. i'm sure there was a nazi guard or two who took the gold for a "look the other way" when it mattered.

gems, jewelry, metal still serve as a universal store of value (albeit context driven), and if the trader has nothing else, and i have some protein... i might take an oz of gold under the assumption it might be worth *something* more down the line.

i concede that the Kurds that froze to death (while escaping Iran over the mountains) with briefcases of gold probably would rather have had a loaf of bread or north-face jacket instead...

Wed, 05/05/2010 - 17:43 | 333333 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Balance in all things.  I don't think anyone would advocate all assets being in gold or silver.  Just enough to get by.   My bug-out bags have small ziplocks with silver coins in them.  If all you can carry is gold or silver you have too much!  Find a handy place to bury/stash the overage and make up the difference with essentials -- food, water, fuel, ammo, etc.

Thu, 05/06/2010 - 06:21 | 334072 i.knoknot
i.knoknot's picture

+1000 - nothing to add - well maybe some of those mini bottles of whiskey.

Tue, 05/04/2010 - 17:10 | 331534 potatomafia
potatomafia's picture

What was gold at the last time the DXY was 83.3??  It was about $900/ounce, today its $1170.  The time before that $800, and the time before that, $700...

Seems to me its going in the right direction.

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