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Gold Vertical As Market Realizes That After QE 2 Comes....
So finally, after much delay, the market lemmings realize that after QE2 comes QE3.
Just ~$20 more till the all time nominal highs.
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I would say, at this point both industrial as well as monetary use is secondary to what is done via SLV.
The biggest price mover is price discovery, not a reduced/increased industrial/monetary change in demand.
ITT people lie about what other people said (by leaving off the all important qualifier "at this rate", which shows exasperation at the fast rising price, which ran counter to their theory of a COMEX collapse), and put their utter and complete ignorance (industrial demand IS growing, and it IS mined primarily as a by-product, but that doesn't mean that people don't buy and hold it as money, which they do and have for, well, ever) and arrogance on display.
Oh, wait, you're already doing that. Carry on.
Tell us some more about your plans to sterilize between 50 and 97% of the human race while you're at it. Maybe you can tell us about the IQ of the quadroon while you're at it.
whatsamatter, Claven, you don't like YOUR OWN pumper arguments being shoved back into your face?
You can't have it both ways, Cliff...you can't have OVER HALF of demand being industrial and almost ALL of production growth being byproduct of industrial metals (zinc/lead/nickel/etc) and not acknowledge that your precious silver is itself ALSO an industrial metal.
Look at the facts: http://www.silverinstitute.org/supply_demand.php
only in the past 2 years have bagholders bought into the get rich fairy tales of shameless pumpers like you; for most of the run, industrial use is what drove price. And the falloff of industrial use is what drove the declines.
You don't tell the entire story either.
Since a substantial part of silver is a by-product of industrial metals mining, the silver supply would shrink if industrial metals mines were mothballed, which would work to increase its price.
I'm 10:1 in gold:silver; silver does have a significant spot as monetary metal throughout history. It's not an entirely industrial metal.
agree...you can look at demand and you see major categories of investment, coins, silverware, jewelry. There is a PM component to silver, but this is more of a historical relic than a true "purpose" any longer. That's all I'm saying.
Silver has both a PM component and an industrial component, but the reality of today is that it has become an industrial metal. If industrial use falls off, both supply and demand will. Price will cannibalize the PM purpose. Less jewelry and coins will be bought in such an eventuality.
Oh, now it has a PM component?
You just said otherwise right above this. You're brutal.
I think I was patently clear on that.
And your precious industrial metal is getting blowtorched again, along with another huge significant share of tmosely-claven's life savings.
It's amazing how quiet you guys are on days like this
Silver is an industrial metal; but, it has also served as a monetary metal for the majority of human history. I'm gonna trade my silver for gold when the GSR gets around 15 or 10.
Gold is still king. But silver is money... and its dynamic use as an industrial metal won't hurt its price until it gets so expensive substitutes must be found... I can't imagine people stressing over the new iPhone in a few years.
People will be ripping their electronics apart to get the silver inside to buy some rice and beans.
sure is!
Silver is now following gold up.... one strange thing however, is that the rise up was directly preceded by a lot of sell orders.... did someone preemptively push silver down, to get more headroom when it would go up? Also notice that silver is still regularily manipulated down in the afterhours.... regular minicrashes between 6-9pm.
silver is an industrial metal, gold is not.
The ISM and other prints are telling us that industrial activity is falling...perhaps even collapsing depending on your perspective. Silver's price action should be expected to be weak in this climate.
I don't fucking care about fundamentals, when non-fundamentals located at the Comex, CME and JPM have much more significant effect on price.
The current "ballpark" of silverprice, depends on manipulators, not on industrial/monetary demand.
yes, whenever things don't go your way, blame massive, sinister, unseen conspiracies.
Fuckin traffic this morning was obviously HAAAARP related.
The Golden Monkey wears a Fez for a reason, it's market fashion when in Chairsatan's casino. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJBV59Sl9Ac
GDX/GLD ratio crashing back to the 2011 lows. Man, those sorry gold stocks cannot seem to get any bids.
robottrader: when you need an unemployed, contract, part time, 1099 processor for stock market commentary.
Every time the SPY bottoms, XRT is always the first one to charge up off the lows.
from his 4 monitor work station in a corner office where he processes 1099's on contract for a prestigious commercial bank the sage speaketh.
Too bad everything you own is down RainbowBlower.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6zpM3sisNU&feature=player_detailpage
hard to argue QE3 is coming when banks are leading the markets down.
Silver will follow, silver always follows.
2nd derivative green shoots turning into 1st derivative brown shoots = BUY GOLD (bitchez)
Remember that d2/dx2 f(x) = f''(x) and that ∫∫f''(x) dx = f(x)
Therefore d2/dx2 f(x) = ∫∫f''(x) dx dx
So that Green Shoots => Brown shoots <=> Bernanke’s Underwear
Your calculus is right on.
Throw a dart at any commodity....silver, oil, food....all will rise as fiat currency floods the markets and people want hard assets Kotlikoff says in his book, The Coming Generational Storm.
Gold is money.
There is no index of the "disconnect" from paper-metal to physical, is there?
My seat of pants indicator is that the price tracks the paper index but that actual in-hand transaction availability shrinks on a dip in price. Dealers and thinking herd animals don't want to sell on dips. There is some pressure to sell on dips, like utility payments and rent/lease payment, but no one makes money selling at or below what they paid.
Just pondering a chart....
Cheers.
I have a website dedicated to exactly this issue: www.truesilverprice.com.
It basically scrapes websites to determine realtime premium information on generic silver products. I'm only scraping 15 sites so far, but the scraper/matcher lets me easily add more (I'll be adding lots as time permits).
On the front page is the "True Silver Price" which is essentially the average price for generic silver products.
There is also a premium graph. It's a great way to see what dealers think the prices are going to do near term.
Also I'll be adding more graphs that are useful for investors (rather than the 3 day, look at how much silver dropped, kitco style graph).
That is great. You might want to take a look at www.goldshark.com too - they scrape prices allowing comparison shopping. I tend to check the nucleo exchange at www.bulliondirect.com to understand what prices are doing in real time.
Thanks for the links. They were in my TODO list, but having others recommend links gives me an idea of what is being used by ZHers (which is very useful).
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
great job and thanks for sharing your hard work and info with the Family!
Thanks man. ZH has been a true inspiration to me. I only hope to be of some use to my fellow ZHers.
You are. Excellent charts.
great work Fiat2Zero, nice to have the information to hand - bookmarked, & linking, as things continue to unravel - thankyou!
been buying PM for the past year and a half. Any guideline on the ratio of buying gold versus silver?
there's no guideline.
you want to be safe? --> for every 40 ounces of silver : 1 ounce of gold
you don't care about volatility? --> for every 200 ounces of silver : 1 ounce of gold
only pick up silver if you can get a good deal. Once you have a couple hundred ounces, no more silver...ever.
Unless you are looking to speculate. If "TSHTF," then you have day-to-day purchasing power and can make change and whatnot.
But silver is too heavy to run with enough of it to make a difference. Compare the relative worth of 150oz Ag to 150oz Au or even 150oz Pt. If the S really HTF, you'll want your wealth to be portable.
Yep. You don't want to be heading for the hills with your pickup truck filled with bags of silver.
lol, says the guy who jerks off to Mad Max movies.
Guess what? "The Road Warrior" was NOT a documentary.
you are the "SHTF" bugout madmaxer, you dipshit.
I have said stay in the cities, the "collapse" won't be like you stupid fucking silver stacking canned ham burying misanthropes hope.
Let's be realistic here. Americans are a resilient people. If the old way of doing things stops working and we can't kick the can down the road anymore, America will reluctantly make the needed changes. You won't need to flee the country. It's much more likely that we will undergo some kind of sudden currency revaluation where we go back to gold backing. I actually think Government will bid up the price of gold to lure it out of private hands so it can be used to back a new currency.
That being said, I actually agree with you. Silver will be good for purchasing and making change, and gold will be used to recapitalize the system.
My goal is to reach 2000 ounces of silver and 100 ounces of gold. Let's hope there's enough time.
Trav, there's a huge flaw in your plan.
As long as things stay in this slow slide, then yeah, maybe you could rationalize hanging in and squeezing some more goody out of the system.
But what if it all falls apart tomorrow? Riots, martial law? You really think you'll be able to load up the SUV with all you think you need and get to wherever you're going? Do you even know more than one way there? Do you have even a half tank of fuel? You've got plenty of gold - how much lead do you have and delivery systems for same?
Never, EVER be a refugee!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Yai8fxLok8 "Refugee - Tom Petty"
why the hell would things "all fall apart tomorrow"? Are white people going to stop acting like it or something?
This country ain't all Katrina, dude
something I also struggle with...
On the one hand, I don't want to have to 'ask for change' when swapping a round for something I need, so 1oz silver makes it easy (for how long though... $50 round for a few .00 shells?)
On the other hand, lugging around a boatload of 1oz silver is kinda tough... :)
KA-CHING
I love the smell of gold in the morning
I guess Bloomberg needs to change GOLDS Comdty to GOLDS Curncy
online currency converters always knew; they always had XAG and XAU listed as currencies.
Wait for the Comex smackdown people...it's coming. Or maybe the Comex default is coming earlier...
There will never be a COMEX default because they can require cash settlement of trades instead of physical delivery.
The Chinese are already buying Silver directly from the miners. That's the reason physical Silver is not being delivered to Comex vaults. The Comex is simply a trading platform for paper Silver just like SLV and every other ETF that will not allow physical transfer of the underlying asset. If you can't see this has happened your not looking hard enough.
That's actually a good point and one I had pondered.
I guess this is the situation that would point to divergence of paper versus physical price, no?
Comex will become the "official price control" orifice, but you won't be able to get silver from them.
You'll have to go to the black market.
At some point I'd think paper will wake up and crash.
Theft begets more theft.
Graft more graft.
Easing to continue.
The banksters could not possibly tolerate gold/silver at their recent highs with these recent pieces of bad news coming out.
We would be seeing silver accelerate 10% per month if not for the 'drive by shooting' on May 1st.
Of course now we will see silver accelerate 15% per month.
HaHaHaHaHaHa
Gold is graduallly regaining its historical role as global reserve currency.
It is as simple as that.
In our world of competitive devaluation, where every developed nation is getting to the point where it must print to spend, gold will be the only currency trusted internationally. Governments will be forced to obtain the gold held in private hands to back their money. I personally think that confiscation will fail and they will be forced to offer value in exchange for it (tax breaks? shares in a new central bank?).
There are really only 2 choices. Start QE3 (or some other name concoction) in July or wait a few weeks until everything starts turning south and then congress will act 'swiftly and decisively' (to use our clown prez. words) and pump even more non existing money into the system. We are now like a heroin addict thanks to the Benster. And going cold turkey is not an option or the patient will die.
both parties have no choice. They have to extend and pretend. The 2012 presidential race is gathering steam, they only have a short amount of time to do one more 'market dip', then they will inflate to infinity and beyond so by nov 2012 they can say "we got the economy going".
They actually are in a huge conundrum. There's no ammo left. the $3 trillion in QE1 and QE2 has amounted to nothing in real terms. They could print $6 trillion tomorrow and the unemployment number / housing number won't move at all.
Yup. They will kick the can. If nothing else to save their bankster overlords.
But GOP is trying to play the game of 'create' a crisis and of course blame the incumbent. They feel more vulnerable in this election than they have in a while. Reaganomics is being openly discredited by it's own architects and others. And they have no other solutions on the table. So the safest election year ploy is stoke up rage, anger and fear and try and ride the wave. Of course it's all in the tell, it can turn on themselves if they don't play it right. That's happened
Here's how this will play out. The States cannot kick the can by printing money, so they will be forced to accept austerity first. Once each of the states undergoes austerity, it will set the stage for austerity and budget/entitlement reform on the national level. The people will no longer be afraid of the unknown because they will already be familiar with austerity on the state level.
it makes me think of a 'parent' who's teenage child refuses to wear a seatbelt when they drive. So to 'teach them a lesson' the parent cuts the brake lines. Either the 'child' dies in a car accident ('oops') or you cause enough fear and the 'child' will submit (his 401k/IRA to 'safe' treasuries; his 'safety' to the TSA; his decision making to the GOP/Dems).
You've been watching too much CNBS if you think everything is on the right track. Three years in a row of $1.5 trillion deificts under the incumbent is already a crisis. They don't need to create one.
If somebody in one party or the other wanted to be rational and do something dramatic to restore confidence, why couldn't they? You know, get out of Iraq tonight, for example. Cut the military budget proposal for next year by 1/3. Close our bases in Italy, Iceland, and whereever else they are obviously not needed (Arkansas, for example, is not about to be overrun by the Taliban - no real need for a base there). Say that will lead to increased unemployment? Well, that employment wasn't productive to begin with, but you could keep paying the S&B without spending it in Italy or buying more fuel to maintain that circus.
Also, if there's going to be QE3+, can't we spend it on infrastructure that employs people to build? I think we've proven that giving it to banks doesn't do squat. I'm ready for a try at CCC2. I really don't care if it's high speed rail or a new monoline between Wall Street and DC (to facilitate / illustrate the revolving door) or fiber optic for rural communities or solar panels across the desert or whatever employs lots of people.
I thought the $800 billion stimulus was for infrastrucutre that employs people to build?
Why should we waste taxpayer money on fiber optics to the Ozarks or Appalachians? We don't need to spend $100K to run a fiber optics line out to a farmhouse in Nebraska. We don't need potemkin villages or projects that will go unused or cost the taxpayers billions of dollars per year into infinity (Amtrak). If a monorail from DC to WS was profitable, somebody in the world would have funded it already. Instead, it will become yet another moneypit.
How about we just cut the budget back to year 2000 levels across the board adjusted for BLS inflation numbers?
Price of silver ($38.60) is leaving the station.
Next stop the moon.
HOLD ON TIGHT.
Not yet please, still stacking over here.
I like how everything is attributed to some event when in reality, it's just pure speculation as to cause and effect. When gold goes down by $50 in a few days, what then - because QE3 isn't happening?
Markets are manipulated to such an extreme that it's just plain foolish to attribute a spike in any direction to anything that actually exists in reality. Just a computer program pushing the price around, and that's it.
The bernanke: "due to unforeseen, transitory equilibriums and hanging nails, we, here at the federal reserve will be reserving and perhaps reversing all the while implementing a series of acommodadating issuances......ah, well u guys know the rest.....!
It's so beautiful.
The higher the Euro goes against the dollah, the tighter the noose gets around Greece. I believe we are about to experience some real turbulence in the next week or so.
At what point would the ECB start selling Gold???
Never. Gold is their hedge. As the paper assets on their balance sheet decline, the gold on their balance sheets becomes more valuable. It's like a see-saw:
Source: http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/08/credibility-inflation.html
They've actually slightly increased their holdings lately. They only have 350,000 ounces, so it really doesn't matter, it would only be a blip on the markets if they dumped it all at once.
the last 6 years holdings in troy ounces from:
http://www.ecb.int/stats/external/reserves/html/index.en.html
1.1.4. Gold (including gold deposits and gold swapped) 358,546 351,458 353,909 336,293 366,190 369,335To put this in context, it's less than the University of Texas has.
Today is very significant in rejecting the notion that gold is a "bubble".
That's the rumor and mindset that's keeping it from hitting $5,000
But we're seeing the mindset crumbling away. Gold is the flight to safety in this environment. Nothing else is truly safe, least of all holding dollars. Even other currencies around the world have risk. And other commodities as well. And without a Fed bid and a Bernanke put stocks are doomed
The move today confirms that gold is the real money for the new world.
+1
And silver will follow gold as she always does. History says so, not the "pumpers" Trav.
Sorry, Obama is definite my hero. I will vote for him in 2012. Because another
five years or so of his presidence, the POG could well be above 4 thousand dollars.
America's first bi-racial dictator. His commie mentors must be so proud.
yeah, because the guy makes a single real decision about squat.
Exactly why he makes such a sharp tool to gut the nation.
As an added plus, he likes it.
Re. silver (and everything else), people jump to conclusions on the basis of a half-hour observation period ... e.g., silver now following gold up this morning briefly. Jesus Christ, stop and think. If that happened for a week or more and there were some clear reasons why that might be happening, you might want to respond.
The trend for gold prices has been steadily upward for the last five years, though. It also follows tradition that as people lose confidence in fiat, gold becomes the reserve therefore the price rises. The big currencies that ought to be viewed as reserves are being mis-managed horribly. Gold is where people go under those conditions.
There may be an attack on gold prices in the near future, but all indications would seem to suggest that gold prices will continue to rise unless confidence returns to the fiat currencies.
When the big financial crash comes, no doubt a bunch of people/governments will dump gold in order to raise some revenue, but if that happens then wouldn't it just be a temporary dip in an overall upward trend?
Up up and away ZedHeds...
Friedrich Nietzsche - "How did gold get to be the highest value? Because it is uncommon and useless and gleaming and gentle in its brilliance; it always gives itself."
(Friedrich was a Au fan)
Paper is made out of wood...
Fried(e)
Double post
(OG kush)
Fried(e)
blythe, today: DJ Comex Gold Delivery Intentions Breakdown - Jun 1
blythe, yest: DJ Comex Gold Delivery Intentions Breakdown - May 31
blythe/jpmorgue = + 1421 contracts in 2 daze.
Yet my gold mining stocks are failing. FML
Mines are subject to control of the nation they are located in. Unlike a factory where the workers and be fired and the machinery moved, you can't move a mine. When the leaders of a country determines that they want your mine there is nothing you can do about it but be screwed in the process.
Well, for the US to get back on the gold standard gold will need to hit around $7000 an oz. So we still have a little ways to go.
mmm...mmm love my maples...
Tyler, can you post an update to the ES vs Risk Basket compression for today's PA?
I have a sneaking suspicioun that the compression trade worked after all, went short the RUT yesterday and oh do they hurt so good
IMO, POG/S (physical) is irrelevant. For the people that read read ZH and are still trying to
make a quick FRN is beyond me. I don't post much, but when I do, I prefer to remind
the greedy traders/brokers you'll never see the dollar crash coming. Those that are unprepared
and have not stored their wealth are blind. The game is rigged, so why play?
Tyler, thank you for this site and thanks to all the contributors and certain commenters each
of you have made me sleep better. I don't have a degree in economics, but I do have the
ability to read and understand what real wealth is.
The lemmings might wake up to the fact that the Gold inventories of Greece and Libya could end up in a comex vault. There are a few levers positioned to affect the Au/Ag ratio that is for sure.
on Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:45
#1328544
I doubt the market selloff is going to last very long, especially with WYNN rocketing up to new highs today.
Certainly looks like a retraction is in order there, Bubba.