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Golden Flash Crash

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Gold just plunged by $20 for no reason whatsoever. So let's take a guess at what happened here: some ETF caused the NYSE to hit LRP thresholds, causing numerous stocks to "break", and the result is an immediate algorithmic margin call satisfied by gold selling? Or not, at his point does anyone really care. Point is obvious: scare all holders into submission. Can the royal "they" just confiscate everything not in paper form (and thus out of Fed control) already and end this charade?

Update: and gold is now back to pre crash levels. Thank you Johnny 5.

 

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Mon, 05/02/2011 - 20:00 | 1232282 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

Gold flash crash not surprising after yesterday's silver flash crash.

Hard to say what's going on, but the action is likely in the 'paper gold/silver' markets, rather than ebay sales of dimes and quarters.

Paper holders are faced w/ a dilemma. On one hand the longs are on the parabolic part of the supply/demand curve as the only way to meet demand is by exchanges issuing more and more paper. The price goes higher and physical is hoarded. The dynamic feeds on itself. Right now there are few sellers outside the exchanges and their (giant) banks. Can the longs 'break the banks'? It's tempting to try since the opportunity to 'have at it' doesn't appear very often.

At some point the exchanges will halt trading and cancel trades. Settlements will be made in cash only. The markets are 'renting' margin now, what rises is not so much access to goods but access to margin. Are you 'creditable'? Do you want to risk a fortune -- or rent money -- to find out?

Personally, I don't think the markets work when longs overwhelm shorts or hedgers. What's the point, there is no real 'price discovery' just trying to find 'infinity' which becomes meaningless. I mean, an ounce of silver won't actually trade for $4 trillion because nobody has that kind of money or would actually make the trade.

"Hyper- inflation!!!" someone screams! Hmmm, I just bought a six- pack @ 7-Eleven for a bit over $6. How does that relate to $4t oz of silver? The answer is it doesn't, it's strictly a market phenomenon.

The flash crashes are warnings. People -- buyers -- are leaving the market, for whatever reason. The smart money crowd has sold out already, the fools are holding the bag. Which side are U going to be on?

Well ... ?

I think metal markets are leading commodities in general. Crude is lagging b/c economic consensus on effects of very high nominal prices  -- total collapse and massive deleveraging. Short selling and 'paper oil' are used to push prices and refinery products down. $150 oil is poison along with $5 US gasoline. How about $5000 gold?

Meaningless and so is a decline in gold price so keep your eyes open ... or be prepared to lose of fortune ... or the rent money.

 

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 20:29 | 1232344 Kina
Kina's picture

The US economy is broken, there is no way out. It is now simply waiting for the method of breakdown they want to choose.

 

Their only hope was for the economy to kick start again and growth recommence with the prospect of an expanding economy taking care of business in the longer term. But that didn't happen, and the US is in a far worse position than when they begun their 'solution'.

To make it worse Japan has just been kicked in the nuts and some PIIGS not far from knocking over a few dominos.

 

I mean, what on earth can the US do now without first letting something crash? There is no way out and who knows the manner of the chaos to come and the picture at the end.

Gold and silver are a universal historic store of wealth, something that you know will always be worth something. It is the best last insurance when things are looking pretty bad.

 

The risk is that the environment gradually sorts itself out without a crash of things in the middle and your insurance goes down in value - but so what. The purchase wasn't a trade, it was to ensure you could preserve some wealth given a totally opaque future.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 20:38 | 1232371 AgShaman
AgShaman's picture

What's going on is what will be going on for the foreseeable future...fiat currencies will continue to trip up like drunks running a 3 card Monty...and the serfs will be stalked by the "Mad Trapper" (aka: Bullion Banks and the Central Banking Syndicate). It's ok if they hoard gold in their private and govt. vaults...but they really would rather that you didn't....because then you cannot be manipulated like the "Debt Slave" you were intended to become for your life term within their "construct". The shakeout to remove physical from weak hands will play out like the "Death March of Bataan"....should you become a willing participant in their Fiat Night Gallery dream of a self imposed trip to the Gulag. Become smarter...or enjoy your slavery

 

From Death Hunt: "Gold is at 35 dollars an ounce...and there's alot of gold in them teeth, Clarence"   *The Mad Trapper

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 20:37 | 1232376 penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture

Anyone else wonder what would happen to PM's, USD, equities if there were some sort of coordinated retaliation over the OBL slaying? Probably be good for the Dow, since most everything is, but makes one wonder.......................

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 20:41 | 1232385 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

Hi All, here's my take on what's happening.

If Banks and Financial entities realise that the USD is now doomed, who cares how much debt you have in USD, true???

So, if they buy huge short positions first, dropping the price of Gold and Silver, they can buy the artificial dip and take delivery of physical. Do a series of these events and you have dealt yourself back in the game.

Of course, there's no reason to come good on your short positions in USDs because they're worthless anyway.

You just need to con the CME into increasing the Margin Call, that's all.

Scam, scam, scam...BUT it really does confirm that physical is going to explode soon, very soon.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 21:40 | 1232522 Jasper M
Jasper M's picture

". .. for no reason whatsoever"

= no reason that fits into Tyler's mythology.

To paraphrase John Cleese, "Reason don't en'er into it!" The herd is at, or very, very near, exhaustion on this. Those seeing the validation of belief systems in market behavior are likely to be disappointed.  

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 21:35 | 1232526 samsara
samsara's picture

$5+ a day swings for Ag

and $50+  a day swings for Au.

 

Means nothing.   We are in VOLITILE TIMES. 

What would you expect?

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 22:23 | 1232616 nathan1234
nathan1234's picture

Best way would be to start a new Spot silver exchange to determine silver price. Either the paper prices move accordingly or those exchanges like Comex close down because they are being run for the few manipulators .

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 03:47 | 1233093 uranian
uranian's picture

agreed with that. you can watch ebay premiums for silver at (currently about 10% over spot, which really means the stuff is selling at spot after all the fees):

http://goldprice.org/ebay-gold-prices/

and a worthy alternative to fleabay is spotmex, created by stellaconcepts (youtube silver fan):

http://www.spotmex.com/

i've not used, it's only a few weeks old i think, but looks promising.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 22:45 | 1232671 Gunther
Gunther's picture

Neither Kitco nor Bullionvault data are showing the flash crash.

Bullionvault shows a low of 1536 for spot gold.

The crash seems to be paper-only.

Mon, 05/02/2011 - 23:36 | 1232787 sellstop
sellstop's picture

O'kay,

If you are into conspiracy theories how about this:

The central banks get together. They realize that if they keep fighting to make their own currencies weak in order to stimulate exports in their own respective economies they only end up making all of their currencies worthless. So, China is convinced that THEY must be the one to start the ball rolling in the other direction by starting to raise interest rates and letting the yuan start to appreciate against the US dollar, their largest trading partner. As they demostrate their willingness to do this, (as the Euro countries have already started), the US will move to tighten and move to a stance of austerity. All of the worlds currencies will then start to appreciate, as the three largest begin a co-ordinated effort to regain value. The Yen, and Japan, raising cash to pay for the reconstruction of the country, is already on the path of Yen appreciation and will be assisted in their efforts by the other central banks. By acting in a co-ordinated fashion they will begin to reverse the worldwide race to the bottom.

And... get this. It will all be done to break the grip of the precious metals on the psyche of the world.

Indeed, the most perfect conspiracy.

gh

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 01:18 | 1232978 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Ridiculous: the Fed tightens it tightens the noose on its own neck--the Treasury can't cover its debt service now, how will it do so as its revenues crash and interest expense goes up? 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 00:16 | 1232873 Keri at Bankste...
Keri at Bankster Report's picture

double

 

 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 00:24 | 1232874 Keri at Bankste...
Keri at Bankster Report's picture

my bad

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 00:30 | 1232903 SwingersRuS
SwingersRuS's picture

Our house was paid for.. Took out a new morgage last summer and bought PM's with it.. Never been more happy to pay that bill in my Life !

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 02:13 | 1233032 acrabbe
acrabbe's picture

 

this guy was up 30% in feb, 40% in march, 60% in april and already up 12% in MAY. You can autotrade these signals in your brokerage account. These returns COMPOUND. great way to turn paper profits into physical silver EH?

http://slv.collective2.com

 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 04:00 | 1233101 ivars
ivars's picture

Here we go again. Silver is crashing to 30, during May: (the chart is so old (March 13th) and bit off in timing,  its already boring, but its still valid):

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&sta...

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 07:07 | 1233200 ivana
ivana's picture

do not want to be a evil but sheep shearing may start soon.
This could be a testing phase

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 09:00 | 1233420 GlenD
GlenD's picture

That blip is just jp morgan testing their new high frequency trading algorithm in real world system. Nothing to worry about, please move on.

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 05:50 | 1458633 hama
hama's picture

The Yen, and Japan, raising cash to pay for the reconstruction of the country, is already on the path of Yen appreciation and will be assisted in their efforts by the other central banks. By acting in a co-ordinated fashion they will begin to reverse the worldwide race to the bottom.
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Fri, 07/15/2011 - 07:41 | 1458764 hama
hama's picture

compound annual inflation rate, the appropriate term to measure this year over year inflation measurement? This level of inflation will make it difficult for people to properly value the products they buy relative to the products value in silver.. A value buying guide might be a useful tool going forward.
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Sat, 07/16/2011 - 08:59 | 1461906 hama
hama's picture

This level of inflation will make it difficult for people to properly value the products they buy relative to the products value in silver.. A value buying guide might be a useful tool going forward.
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Sat, 07/16/2011 - 18:46 | 1462716 hama
hama's picture

The first thing in the morning ZH read makes me wonder? Is the confidence and faith in the Government and Media so destroyed that it can not be rebuilt? Not to say that I believe any one of the sons of bitches. Just sayin that some how some way, trust has to be re-invented.
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Tue, 07/26/2011 - 07:26 | 1493818 pama
pama's picture

As stated above, my ears were bleeding. If you read it backwards your ass will bleed.
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Wed, 08/17/2011 - 08:38 | 1568400 pama
pama's picture

A value buying guide might be a useful tool going forward.
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