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Then it's time to go long China.
"China has been a key dynamo for world growth"
er, no...China has been a key dynamo for the growth of CHINA and various quisling multinationals (easy to pull off when you don't give two flying fucks about the environment, human rights or the life expectancy of your citizenry.
Too many young 'uns here (multiculturalists?) think Globalization is a GOOD thing...
It aint. Globalization is simply modern feudalism on a "global" scale...a "race to the bottom" for humanity's labor force.
ahh, Goldman...guiding the flock toward the sheering barn.
No way I'm closing out long china. Take some profits, sure, but not closing..
The BDI, which had a lower high last month, has been falling since. Today it broke a lower support level that has held since September. Next stop 2000...
Looks like it is dead in the middle of its recent trading range to me. That's 2000-4500. It would have to go significantly below 2000 to really be notable, at least to me.
goldman high frequency trading program that can "manipulate markets in unfair ways" deserves protection under the economic espionage act.
Chinese President Hu Jintao assured Obama during talks Thursday (G20) that China has an unswerving commitment to pressing ahead with currency reform, said Ma Zhaoxu, spokesman for the Chinese delegation.
BITCH SLAPPED AGAIN!!
No resolution at G20 - status quo & the dollar will weaken further...EU melt down not withstanding.
The G20 is a Cartel. And the US is the Saudi Arabia of money. Ben's job is to keep the cartel members from pumping outside of approved guidelines.
Goldman wants to buy China cheaper. So please get out, NOW...
HA! More like: Take your hot monopory money and get the F out youse sons of bitchez!
Is this why BIDU is up like 40% today, pushing it's P/E to what 900:1?
Chinese Subs are up too
Because they're going to have to break the peg due to QE pressure on inflation and US asset devaluation?
Goldman needs some 4th Quarter profit taking and is arranging the set-up?
It's the trade gap stupid ...
"It's China that's the problem ..." -- John Taylor
"I'd sell the EUR ... but not because of currency wars, because of internal things going on" -- John Taylor
How long does China levitate and EM markets along with it?
Could Goldman be right this time?
China is such a gigantic ponzi now that they cannot just "put on the brakes." Much of what's happened there in the past 10 years is uneconomical. It only "makes" money because the government makes edict that it has.
I mean, how profitable are idle factories or empty cities or toxic lakes and rivers?
That said, I'd be longer S. America than China. The consumption/production/resource ponzi globally has a LOT of addicts. If it comes between accepting a cheaper dollar and outright deflationary USD and JPY carry trade unwind and concomitant collapse, they'll take the former.
Maybe they know there's not much future in a China financially bombed back into the Stone Age.
Riiight. What's the record on Goldman's public guidance this year?
Buy low sell high, Looking at the FX rates for the BRICs they have all shot up against the US $ Except China so all China needs to do to reduce inflation would be do what the US Govenment wants, Allow the Yuan to raise, It is now doing just that hence Today my position in China I have added too, I accept China carrys risk but still looks like a no brainer to me.
I think its too risky to go all in but a few toes in China is a must.
yep, what I said in the comment above. QE is pressure on the peg.
So, best trade/proxy for a strengthening Renminbi?
Interesting comments on China last night by Diana Choyleva, who is bearish. In a nutshell, her take was that real Chinese inflation is at least double the official rate, continued investment will fuel inflation further, and slowing growth and investment will result in lower growth on down the road, ceteris paribus.
Hugh Hendry - bearish on China and gold, Jul 5 2009 (4m 48sec) http://video.ft.com/v/63002635001/Jul-5-Hugh-Hendry-bearish-on-China-and-gold
Hugh Hendry Sees Opportunities to `Short' Credit in Asia http://bizvid.tv/view/fz270b36u/hugh-hendry-sees-opportunities-to-short-credit-in-asia/
Hedge Fund Manager Hugh Hendry Brief Report on the state of the Chinese Economy in Early 2009 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ektMQGbW3wk
Goldman selling big chunk of its Industrial & Commercial Bank of China stake http://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-sachs-eyes-2-bln-icbc-stake-sale-wsj-2010-09-29
OK so does that mean we short Australia.
i don't buy what goldman is selling. as for inflation in China, i'll fill you in based on Shanghai prices which if things were to change anywhere, it'd be here:
mandarin oranges are cheaper now than 6 months ago, bottled water still 1.50RMB per bottle same as 6 months ago, bananas are up slightly, getting clothes hemmed/sewed is still the same, cab fares remain the same, tsingtao at the local bars is still 15RMB, keg is still 100RMB wholesale, KTV room rentals are unchanged, steamed buns from family mart are still 1RMB, guo tie or yang's famous fried dumplings are still 4 for 5RMB, metro and bus fares remain the same.
my point is everything I mentioned above are all things used and bought by the locals. the one thing locals complain about is real estate, but that's being driven by the fact that parents and grandparents on both sides are contributing towards the purchase of a home for newly married couples in China. The one child law has effectively allowed all adults to spoil the one child/grandchild. It's true some commercial real estate properties remain vacant/partially vacant and some areas of retail i don't see performing very well. I'd be long a company like GAP right now who just opened their first Shanghai store yesterday and already saw 2 local girls this morning wearing GAP denim bags. I suspect they'll be very successful here. I'm going to check out the store this weekend to see for myself but was definitely surprised. I still think the China story has some very serious legs.
Goldman Tells Investors to Exit China Stock Bet With 11.3% Gain http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-11/goldman-tells-investors-to-exit-china-stock-bet-with-11-3-gain.html
There will be no decoupling!
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