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SPY = Command and Control.
"They" will never let the market crash ever again.
Thx, Tyler. Can anyone provide the link to Tyler's article where he proposes much of the recent market move occured due to futures buying in the afterhours? I searched but couldn't find it.
Thx, AR. I found that one, but I was looking for one that showed a line graph depicting the amount the market moved in regular session vs afterhours session. Does that ring a bell?
Yes that graph was memorable. It was several months ago. Think this might be the link:
Excellent work, Anon! Thanks!
I wonder if the same thing has happened in ES. This is the after hours SPY (i.e Prop Platform)
Bear, refer to my example at comment: http://tinyurl.com/yhzc4n2From today's regular session.
Great ... thanks for the images ... I trade ES all the time but have no access to bid/ask profiles (Optionsxpress). Where do get the info?
I trade with a friend; he trades futures, I trade cash markets. Both of us can see the depth of the market we trade & know what each market is doing, so we work in tandem. The links are to his screenshots from his trade platform. We call the PPT, Mr. 2k. When Mr. 2k shows up, you know the "fix" is in. He adds or fades as required. I always have a slight edge when "Mr. Stick" (rally) shows up or when the 2:30 ramp begins.
If anybody is trying to keep the markets propped up I dont quite see what they are achieving by doing that. CON sumer CON fidence is still slipping mightily - in fact things will get worse as people see the farce behind the market !!
Tyler....excellent investigative journalism.
DH / To your opinion, we believe the only thing that stops this insanity, is a "market implosion" to some large degree. In fact, none of us yet knows, what event will cause or precipitate it. Greece, Italy, Spain? Dubai, Iran? Maybe Japan? Hell, it could even be China for all we know. Internally, we are forced particpants, but probably like you and those above, we are very nervous, defensive, and staying nimble. This all is historic. Very little makes much sense. Which prompts the saying: "When in doubt, stay out." Sometimes one makes more money by doing nothing at all. Hang in there our friend, and try to stay positive...
Click here (and re-read my post): #240616
I re-read and do remember those good words.
2 thoughts: as to "when in doubt...." could not agree more. People often forget that cash is a position and preservation of principal is critical.
I do think we are in a secular bear and there is at least a few years (if not more) ahead before the potential onset of a new secular bull. As to: "we believe the only thing that stops this insanity, is a "market implosion" to some large degree." I am definitely inclined to think that an event of magnitude (and one or more is guaranteed to occur in this world, such is human nature.) will arise to slap the markets up side the head to stop the insanity,as you say i.e. bring the notion of risk back into the picture which transfers to pricing. After that, I see a great likelihood of a long, slow, painful grind down in the equity markets not only due to the structural financial and economic conditions but perhaps even moreso to what I foresee as a significant rise in social and political unrest.
Very well summarized DH. Structurally, we firmly are of the opinion that these markets MUST, repeat -- must, purge themselves of the excesses, and imbalances, that have created and led up to the current environment today. We are very concerned about the increasing governmental controls, dominance, and policies markets now face. Internally, we are struggling on how to hedge this specific risk of gevernment influence (it's very difficult to do). Finally, we agree with you that this will be a long, slow, very painful grind. We do not think markets expect this to the degree we do on this point. Stay FOCUSED. We'll talk later...
WTF? JP Morgan and Goldman aren't banks. they aren't hedge funds. they aren't casinos. what are they? how do they contribute to society?
Their contribution is negative, as in a parasite. The greed of these parasites is such that they don't even care if they kill the host.
Ever heard the story about the scorpion and the frog?
tyler - i'm confused about one thing: you analyzed JPM's asset management biz and private banking biz - which I'm sure you know are distinct from the B/D. why? said differently - that JPM data is client money - right?
How are you drawing the conclusion "At this point it is relatively clear that while JPM may be transacting on a flow basis, it is certainly accumulating a substantial amount as a prop trader" from the fact that their CLIENT ASSETS are owning more SPY?
The Credit Suisse side is interesting. It could be anything.My guess is it is connected to the blow up last year between UBS/DOJ. The end result was that the American accounts were closed by the likes of CS and the other banks. They did not want to get hit like UBS did. Ejecto customers. Nice.
How much might have been at CS based on this number? In my experience only 10% of swiss money went to equities. More of it went to CHF and bonds. Based on this you come up with an estimate of US accounts with CS at $25b, about half what UBS had.
Of course that is just a guess...
" We hope this answers some questions about JPM and whether or not the firm eliminates and recycles its SPY holdings at the end of any given trading day."
know what that means......THEY'RE HOLDING THE BAG!
THEY'RE HOLDING THE BAG!
More likely than not, if one accepts the ponzi nature of today's market and the distribution to the greater fool theory, they can distribute these shares over the course of several days, particularly in the market that we have had i.e. plenty of volatility.
The other consideration for those of us who believe the Fed is actively involved in the equity market is the Fed can simply buy the shares back at anytime. For those who might say that JPM is still exposed if they are holding SPY at 110 and 2 weeks later it's at 95, I would suggest that a Fed purchase at par of some really shit paper from JPM worth 40 cents on the dollar might do the trick at making up any differences.
Go back to Tuesday the 16th of February and look at XLF and IWM. GS bought 17 million shares in the a.m. all in large blocks. JPM bought a ton of IWM in their usual fashion (5000 share at once). So anyone who is saying that GS is buying for their clients is misinformed as $250 million is a big trade to put through all at once in something like XLF. It was a short trigger just like everything else they do. JPM has the strategy to squeeze using small trades for 30-40 min. Those trades equal millions of shares and have caused the Russell to spike continuously. Until this game ends or they decide there are no more shorts left the market will continue on its path to DOW 50,000,000. Good luck.
Of course they've increased their holdings. They're the primary dealers of the FED I.e plunge protection team
Trainer "knocked out" at California's Sea World !! Did Blackstone not buy out Sea World recently ? Did they (BX) introduce any new austerity measures ???
I tell ya, what sucks real bad is holdin SDS's tightly betwixt my butt cheeks waiting for reality to hit JPM right in their f**cking Sachs - God I hope they blink..
You know what Jamie Dimon calls SDS?
Lube. Enjoy your time in the box
I can laugh at that... although Jamie must like pumice in his lube, cuz that's what it feels like.
Sadly, or fortunately if you are one of the Fed/Master of the Universe minions, the huge markets and millions of players affords the players of the Ponzi sufficient cover and plausible deniability that any article such as this can be safely shouted down, even if it is also plausible.
No one is going to see or recognize that which they don't wish to see or recognize. Since so many people are in up to their ears and making boat loads of money to boot, who in their right mind would stop this dance until the music stops?
Making boatloads of money from whom? If the volume situation is as claimed what we got seems to be ten banksters all jamming each other. Am I missing something here?
BTW Cog, where is the second half of your piece?
"Making boatloads of money from whom?"
From simply providing "liquidity", remember? They get paid by the exchanges just to play in the sand box. Even if they make little or nothing on the trade, they get paid to trade, which more than covers their expenses and then some.
"BTW Cog, where is the second half of your piece?"
Still mucking around in the brain cells my dear man. When I decided to break it into two pieces, I rewrote the whole thing into the first piece and have yet to write the second piece. Unlike the professionals that can push out stuff day and night, I'm a rank amateur and actually do struggle to write this stuff.
Most of it is finished up stairs, just below the rapidly depleting hair follicles. Now I just need to sit down and hash it out, which is the hard part. I really do wish it would write itself but it doesn't. I do have the title pretty well worked out.
"End of Empire - Waking Zombie Nations / Chaos, Control and Conspiracy." Needless to say, some people are going to get their shorts all bunched up but in reality it will focus on concepts. But that won't stop the myth keepers and thought police.
oh man this has the beginnings of a good hollywood movie. i cant wait to read the next chapter.
Today in Greece angry crowds march in the streets of Athens
>> Chanting >> " Burn the Banks " we should be doing that here
in front of J P Morgan / Chase and Goldman Sachs in NY City..
Are people all sleeping... ? Did everybody give up...?
I hope not... maybe this June people will wake up..and march..
tremendous analysis, some of the very best of ZH thus far this year. thanks for it, TD, sir !
a few thoughts in the dark:
1) CS, JPM, GS are lead mkt makers of SPY and each have taken turns playing 'lead' machine-gun(ner) into MOC (mkt on close ~ 338 - 400, for equities / cash)
2) think TD hit the nail on the head of the barbell, ie. pairing SPY longs against individual issue puts
3) only sizeable thing to add would be that long SPY (to sit for clearing, settlement, T + 3, acceptably collateralized & markably visible leverage) alongside short ES hedge also makes sense. SPY is best to use a swing-trading instrument since it 'needs' to clear, settle etc etc ... while ES may be employed over n over again without book-entry attribution ($ posted) so long as position is closed intra-session and is the simplest instrument to trade around almost any core holding with.
If these Big Banks had real " Mark to Market Accounting "
they would be shut down by the FDIC this week...
RBC Bank President Gordon Nixon - Salary $11.73 Million
$100,000 - MISTAKE (FISHERMEN'S LOAN)
I'm a commercial fisherman fighting the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC Bank) over a $100,000 loan mistake. I lost my home, fishing vessel and equipment. Help me fight this corporate bully by closing your RBC Bank account.
There was no monthly interest payment date or amount of interest payable per month on my loan agreement. Date of first installment payment (Principal + interest) is approximately 1 year from the signing of my contract.
Demand loan agreements signed by other fishermen around the same time disclosed monthly interest payment dates and interest amounts payable per month.The lending policy for fishermen did change at RBC from one payment (principal + interest) per year for fishing loans to principal paid yearly with interest paid monthly. This lending practice was in place when I approached RBC.
Only problem is the loans officer was a replacement who wasn't familiar with these type of loans. She never informed me verbally or in writing about this new criteria.
Phone or e-mail:
RBC President, Gordon Nixon, Toronto (416)974-6415
RBC Vice President, Sales, Anne Lockie, Toronto (416)974-6821
RBC President, Atlantic Provinces, Greg Grice (902)421-8112 mail to:email@example.com
RBC Manager, Cape Breton/Eastern Nova Scotia, Jerry Rankin (902)567-8600
RBC Vice President, Atlantic Provinces, Brian Conway (902)491-4302 mail to:firstname.lastname@example.org
RBC Vice President, Halifax Region, Tammy Holland (902)421-8112 mail to:email@example.com
RBC Senior Manager, Media & Public Relations, Beja Rodeck (416)974-5506 mail to:firstname.lastname@example.org
RBC Ombudsman, Wendy Knight, Toronto, Ontario 1-800-769-2542 mail to:email@example.com
Ombudsman for Banking Services & Investments, JoAnne Olafson, Toronto, 1-888-451-4519 mail to:firstname.lastname@example.org
"Fighting the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC Bank) one customer at a time"
another solid article... very nice work.
These holdings shouldn't come as a big surprise to anyone. Borrowing at zero percent to drive up the value of your existing investments isn't rocket science. You just gotta be ready to head for the exit when you smell smoke.
May be worth to look at the IRS (OOCC) as well few banks have been jockeying for position.
HSBC used to be the fourth contributor to the interest pervasion and is now discreetly fading out when MSDW is the proud owner of the fourth position.
Guys big holdings means they can sell call, buy puts, and sell to make the market go where they want to. Note they had had accumulation at all time high at market peaks. this is how you keep shorting aggressively without naked shorting. Because of dollar coast averaging you are still selling at a profit and making money all the way down also.
This is a very bearish sign to me.
It also tells us who has been rampig up the market when consumers aren't buying.
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