Goldman Apologizes For Its Horrendous December "US Economic Renaissance" Call, Begins QE3 Discussion

Tyler Durden's picture

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
IdioTsincracY's picture

Geniuses!! That's why they make the big bucks!!

"What accounts for this weakness? The Japanese supply chain.... The oil price shock  ... we are looking at either a weaker underlying growth pace or a greater vulnerability to shocks than we had been assuming."

 

I think they forgot the weather, didn't they?!

Dolemite's picture

Precious metals to present good buying oppurtunity after a near term correction?

Gold and silver showing signs of weakness, and oil is confirming.

http://deadcatbouncing.blogspot.com/

SumSUN's picture

I'm "betting" 500 oz. on the Fed unleashing more digidollars.

samseau's picture

Hear that sound?  It's the CHA-CHING noise going off in my portfolio!

 

Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh Yeahh!~!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

QE3 BABY!  Time to make some SERIOUS money!  Just buy a 6-month call on silver/oil/gold and quadrouple your investment!  And then take half to buy physical.

 

$$CHA-CHING$$

Subprime JD's picture

Hatzius is the leader of the wall street groupthink cabal. He is also a shill for the industry as he always pumps up the markets and the economy. For example, he still thinks that the employment issue is "cyclical" as opposed to structural. What a douche.

Hedge Jobs's picture

Hatzius is most certainly a "shill", its a prerequisite if you work for GS. There was no sound reasoning for his "bulllish" about face 6 months ago and now his credibility is in tatters but im sure he's been well compensated for that. What a pathetic sellout he is sacrificing his reputation to keep his masters happy.

Anyway, the question now is what is the markets reaction to the inevitbale QE3? Im not sure this will be met with the same enthusiasm as QE2 was. I reckon equity markets need to get a lot worse (go alot lower) before another round of QE will be tolerated.

Careless Whisper's picture

How many subpoenas did Bernie Blankfein get served with last week? anyone?

 

Hansel's picture

There is no correlation between QE and an increase in employment.  Fucking fucktarded eCONo-fucktards.

Cursive's picture

@Hansel

Word.  I made the same observation.

Problem Is's picture

"Fucking fucktarded eCONo-fucktards."

Fucking-verb, fucktarded-adjective, fucktards-noun...

Nice work..

Double down's picture

Is the first one a gerund?

navy62802's picture

I do believe you're correct, good sir.

Missiondweller's picture

"unemployment—which still looks cyclical rather than structural"

 

Based on what? its beginning to look pretty structural to me, especially as the number of people unemployed/underployed for over two years continues to grow.

holdbuysell's picture

Bernanke, in a speech just preceding QE2, mentioned that he didn't think the employment issue was structural. It was a simple sentence that seemed out of place, such that I can still recall it.

Cursive's picture

So what is the hurdle for QE3? It probably requires either a meaningful rise in the unemployment rate or flat unemployment coupled with a sharp fall in core inflation and inflation expectations.

Yeah, right.  Really cute how Hatzius left out any drop in asset prices.  Quantitative easing is all about asset prices, not the economy.  This report is disingenious or idiotic or a combination of both.

Superslam's picture

"Third time's the charm!" - The Bernank.

Id fight Gandhi's picture

But I don't want qe3. It doesnt work, didn't work, won't work. What fool does the same failed program over and over?

Problem Is's picture

Wow... I don't even have a PhD in economics from the "right" school and I made a better prediction on 12-1-2010 than Hatzius and his Goldman team... I believe "recovery morons" was my phrase...

Of course so did masturbating chimps and a dart board...

Reese Bobby's picture

"So what is the hurdle for QE3?"  I know this one!  The end of June! 

Hedgetard55's picture

+55!

 

Thanks for the chuckle.

slaughterer's picture

Tyler, thanks for posting this.  It iprovides guidelines for mid-term strategy.  The only thing that could set the stage for QE3 is a temporary commodity sell-off, to create the illusion of a deflationary spiral.  The unemployment numbers will remain steady as the unemployment is structural, not cyclical, as Hatzius pretends, picking up on the "ingrained loss of skills" of the long-term un-employed, Hatzius"s master (BB) trots out from time to time to gain sympathy from the working class.  We saw the beginning of a commodity sell-off last week.  It needs to continue in order for the stage to be set up for any talk of QE3 in the FOMC.  I would expect every PD to make a concerted and sustained effort to knock commodity prices down this summer--as the price of admission to QE3 this fall. 

holdbuysell's picture

I wonder if the bar becomes one sub-par UST auction, when the Fed is out of the way.

Superslam's picture

The inflationary benchmark for the Fed is real estate prices and nothing else. Maybe iPads too. As far as the Fed's concerned, as long as the prices of those two things remain static, there is no threat of inflation because the spikes in gold, oil, corn, etc. are merely "transitory." So I'd say the bar for QE3 is actually continued slumping real estate prices, which is a guarantee. Hence QE3 is a foregone conclusion.

slaughterer's picture

"So what is the hurdle for QE3? ...  a sharp fall in core inflation and inflation expectations."

 

Get ready for just that.

Reese Bobby's picture

ZH has pointed out that the Bank Cartel can't really drive commodity prices down without killing the carry trade and financial asset prices, especially credit.  After spending trillions to buy credit the Bank Cartel is between the proverbial rock and a hard place.

 

So I disagree with your view, even though I couldn't find the ZH article that made so much sense to me on this topic within the last 3-6 months.

 

I would entertain the idea TPTB want to admit to the economic mess temporarily so they don't have to be bothered with stealth QE3, to the extent they even care about having to hide it at this point.

 

scratch_and_sniff's picture

I bet it kills them.

BlackholeDivestment's picture

...they don't call em GOLDman for nothing.

FoieGras's picture

The guys who got it über-terribly wrong here are not only the macro guys but the company specifiy analysts. Consensus S&P 500 aggregate corporate earings for 2011 are being revised *UPWARDS* in recent weeks.

These guys are likely massively wrong and once the earnings forecasts revisions keep rolling  in weekly say hello to a sweet bear market.

That's what's (IMO) coming up next.

alfred b.'s picture

 

  QE3 needs to happen and needs to be large, cuz where else will the bankster bonuses come from??

...and oh yeah its trichle-down feature/benfit wil be the talk of the town all over Washington plus, how the horror of doing nothing would have thrown us over the proverbial cliff!!!

 

 

css1971's picture

QE 3 is already in place. All the Fed has to do is elimintate the interest rate it is paying on reserves.

 .

Downtoolong's picture

Commission and trading income dropping. Life support from the Fed starting to fade. Quick, someone stir things up so we can bring this market back to life.

Jalaluddin's picture

With English one can verb a noun, noun a verb, and adjective a verb.

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

One item starting to show in MSM is summer layoffs of state and local government "workers"..

if the rest of USA is like my local area..major cuts to schools and county budgets are now planned for yr end July..

.summer of QE 3 just got it's second wind IMO as this unfolds.".unexpected" gov layoffs will shake the MSM like nothing else has.

PM's will move up very quickly if the MSM beats this drum of UE going thru the roof.

jkruffin's picture

So what is the hurdle for QE3?  

Well, lets see............ 

 

$100 oil - first problem

$1500 gold - second problem

US Markets are a ponzi scheme- third problem

$3 Trillion FED Reserve toxic toilet paper - fourth problem

The list goes on and on...........QE3 is a myth!

 

Scorpio69er's picture

When have these guys ever been right?

 

Fri Dec 21, 2007:

 

Goldman's Cohen tells paper U.S. recession unlikely

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL216563920071221

 

Abby Joseph Cohen: Economy to Rebound in 2008

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/22101808

 

 

 

 

jkruffin's picture

The negative stories just keep hitting the wires this morning.....

 

Economic Stimulus Runs Dry.....from CNN Money

 

Congress will not be riding to the rescue.

Economic indicators are pointing to slower growth. More Americans are looking for jobs, and the housing market is in a confirmed double dip.

In another time and place, lawmakers have might responded with economic stimulus measures to get the country back on track.

This time around, it's not in the cards.

Having spent the majority of the current legislative session operating at a truly glacial pace, Congress is sitting on the sidelines, waiting to see how the debate over the debt ceiling pans out.

"I am not sure you could even get the votes [for a stimulus package] if it was clear we were headed for a depression," said Norman Ornstein, a resident scholar at the conservative American Enterprise Institute.

To be fair, lawmakers have tried quite a few tactics to help the economy since 2008. Banks were bailed out, the auto industry was rescued and unemployment benefits were extended. Congress passed a gigantic stimulus package that included tax breaks and money for infrastructure projects.

But now that money has all dried up.