Goldman Back To Economy Bashing Mode

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Fri, 11/20/2009 - 13:19 | 137437 Daedal
Daedal's picture

Meanwhile, house prices and credit quality look set continue to weigh on the US financial system, the availability of bank credit, and ultimately the pace of the economic recovery.

Jan, you got that backwards -- can I have an MD position at GS now? A stronger economy would lead to an emergence in credit and a subsequent rise in housing prices. Somewhere along the way Bernanke managed to confuse you into thinking that increasing the price of an asset creates value.

Fri, 11/20/2009 - 13:21 | 137442 digalert
digalert's picture

It's a bummer Gilded Slacks has had a record year.

Fri, 11/20/2009 - 13:24 | 137450 JohnKing
JohnKing's picture

Predation has been a very good business model for them, especially with an assist from US taxpayer and FED.

Fri, 11/20/2009 - 13:37 | 137471 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

I don't care what GoldSach says.

Does anyone take their opinions seriously?

You are wasting valuable website real estate by using it to post their reports. 

Fri, 11/20/2009 - 13:43 | 137481 jm
jm's picture

HY is getting the shit kicked out of it @ 12:40.

Anybody know what's going on? 

Fri, 11/20/2009 - 13:46 | 137488 Cursive
Cursive's picture

I'd rather not read GS propaganda.  Back to chart watching....

Fri, 11/20/2009 - 14:52 | 137606 Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

I find these posts valuable.  A lot of good information here, even if some of it is propaganda and much of it is quadruple-reverse-psychology.

If y'all don't like them, don't read them.

Fri, 11/20/2009 - 15:06 | 137630 spekulatn
spekulatn's picture

+1 M_L

 

Hope you find what you are lookin for.

Fri, 11/20/2009 - 15:04 | 137619 spekulatn
spekulatn's picture

First the Oracle of Delphi's bank debt short-selling enabling trading desk (i.e., Hatzius of Goldman Sachs for the slower readers)

 

Well  excuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuse me ;>]

 

 

 

 


Fri, 11/20/2009 - 15:48 | 137694 max2205
max2205's picture

Double dog fake out... this from the Fed:

 

  • 12:53 PM The Fed is reportedly scrutinizing the biggest banks to ensure they have enough capital to withstand a sudden reversal in asset prices. Supervisors want to know what banks know about the strength of their counterparties, and whether risk managers have any say in bank policies. 6 Comments
  • PS thanks fopr the easiest CAPTCHA math quiz today!!
Fri, 11/20/2009 - 17:17 | 137816 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Wow "quadruple reverse psychology"...so if "reverse psychology" is a 180 then QRS is a 720 which leaves us right back where we started...but dizzier for the ride???

Im confused

First the captchas, now this, maybe Ill have to stick to a less brain intensive site like Fustercluck from here on in.

heh

AndyC

Sat, 11/21/2009 - 01:31 | 138087 heatbarrier
heatbarrier's picture

"quadruple reverse psychology"...Spin 1/2 for physicists.

It can be puzzling as to why a rotation of 720 degrees or two turns is necessary to return to the original state,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spin-1/2

Fri, 11/20/2009 - 18:43 | 137913 deadhead
deadhead's picture

I find it remarkable that a housing report/forecast makes no mention of shadow inventories and the gaming going on amongst the banks in regards to their housing inventory.

I find it remarkable that a housing report/forecast makes no mention of the country's current largest mortgage conduit, the FHA.

Talk about putting your head in the sand.   

Fri, 11/20/2009 - 20:24 | 137993 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

We're currently only about halfway through the 2nd phase of this 3 phase housing meltdown, characterized by the increase in prime mortgage foreclosures as a function of rising unemployment.

The 3d phase will commence in earnest the middle of next year when resets on exotic mortgage products ramp up in a major way. Unfortunately this phase will likely be preceded by an imploding FHA and the next leg down in housing prices, with the Fed holding the bag on 1.3 trillion in junky agency MBS.

Fri, 11/20/2009 - 20:28 | 137996 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

We're currently only about halfway through the 2nd phase of this 3 phase housing meltdown, characterized by the increase in prime mortgage foreclosures as a function of rising unemployment.

The 3d phase will commence in earnest the middle of next year when resets on exotic mortgage products ramp up in a major way. Unfortunately this phase will likely be preceded by an imploding FHA and the next leg down in housing prices, with the Fed holding the bag on 1.3 trillion in junky agency MBS.

Sat, 11/21/2009 - 02:44 | 138117 Dr Hackenbush
Dr Hackenbush's picture

The rocketship needs refueling.  play coy, bide time, build a possible bearish head and shoulders pattern for CNBC to announce and Cramer to cringe at, do it the the week of the 10.9% unemployment anouncement, then slam this puppy to 1400.

collect bonuses and refer to yourself in saintly terms

Sat, 11/21/2009 - 09:36 | 138156 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Your Housing report, served up fresh: first, always keep in mind that the foreclosure problem starts with subprimes (and generally confined to very narrow geographic niches - think Inland empire and Florida) and is now moving into the ALT-As and primes, due to unemployment, which is broadly based geographically speaking. The tax credits will pull this engine for a while, so the first half of 2010 will continue at a more or less flat pace, with some volatility in the numbers. 

Right now, another issue looms. HUD has announced new condo financing rules that will, in my opinion, essentially kill or mute the ability to get a mortgage if you want to buy a townhome or a flat in a "planned community" regime (affects not only the empty condo towers in cities and Florida, but also those large townhouse developments you see - also technically "multifamily" but not apartments, which is what most people think when they think of multifamily) and it seems fairly certain the new rules will go into effect early in 2010. There was a recent reprieve from a planned effective date of December, due to howls rising from those developers who own projects that are not sold, or are still controlled by the developer (and with the grim sales pace, that is a whole lotta dirt).  Think of it this way: you'll only be able to get a condo/flat mortgage if it is a sale of an existing unit in a mature, essentially sold out development.  With the stroke of a regulatory pen, a lot of developer A&D mortgages are now in even deeper doo-doo than they were before.  It is somewhat startling that they haven't thought to grandfather the existing, approved, in-progress developments.  Classic government clusterfuck in progress.

The situation is still fluid in some sense and a reprieve may come, but it looks bad.  So look for 2 things: a complete collapse in multifamily dwelling building permits both for sale (due to the above - you can't sell it if your buyer can't get a mortgage) and for rent (lots of reasons, but let's point to poor financing availability, the depressed market for rentals - which foreclosures don't help - and the fundamentals, that the deals simply do not pencil out, land + construction costs after rents do not yield a profit except in very limited geographic areas where premium rents can be obtained.)   

Single family detached will chug along at a very muted pace. 

Sat, 11/21/2009 - 11:02 | 138169 jedwards
jedwards's picture

This guy must not have gotten the memo... Men with Sacks of Gold are supposed to be supporting everything the government wants the people of the US to believe, they're not supposed to be saying anything negative.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!