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Goldman Blames German Industrial Production Miss On Snow

Tyler Durden's picture





 

A key European economic indicator printed earlier today, with Industrial Production coming in at -1.5% on expectations of 0.2%, and a second consecutive negative print, after the former number was revised to -0.6%. This is a confirmation of ongoing European weakness following recent deteriorating data from the export-complex which after all are to be expected considering the EURUSD is held up artificially high courtesy of hopes that various can kicking contraptions by the ECB will buy Europe a few more months of pretend stability. Thus, the trade off is simple: a decline in export activity in exchange for a strong euro giving the impression that things are ok (note the second consecutive week of no sovereign bond monetizations in Europe), and a rising market driven higher in sympathy with what US stocks are doing (even as the US is now supposed to be the growth dynamo of the entire world, which is odd considering that the benefits from the payroll tax cut will start expiring in Q2). And if none of the above makes sense, you always have Goldman, which just blamed it all on, you guessed it, snow.

From Goldman Sachs

As expected, the large negative IP print in December was due almost entirely to the deep weather-related contraction in construction activity (-24%mom). From what we can tell, consensus expectations of a +0.2%mom gain either did not price in the adverse weather impact on the construction sector, or grossly underestimated it.

That said, the remaining major components of industrial production were not particularly robust in December -- manufacturing edged down slightly (-0.1%mom), and we did not see the boost to energy output (it was up a modest 0.3%mom) that one would have expected given the cold weather conditions. In any case, over Q4 as a whole, IP was still up 1.9%qoq, which is slightly higher than the 1.7% gain posted in Q3, when the corresponding growth in GDP was +0.7%qoq. In this sense, the Q4 industrial production figures are broadly in line with the +0.5%qoq German GDP growth we have pencilled in for Q4.

Going forward, we would expect a strong rebound in construction activity in January, as temperatures were milder this past month and, more importantly, snowfall was nowhere near the record levels seen in December. Indeed, the buoyancy of the German business surveys (both the PMIs and Ifo) in January suggest that the sequential momentum of industrial activity remained strong at the start of the year.

 


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Tue, 02/08/2011 - 08:59 | Link to Comment misterc
misterc's picture

Ahh, there he comes again... General Snow !

(German governments by the way always blame the winter).

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 09:49 | Link to Comment blackbox
blackbox's picture

These are seasonally adjusted numbers i.e. adjusted for poor weather and downtime through xmas / new year ... and they couldn't even fabricate them positive. Ooooops.

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 09:59 | Link to Comment More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

And if none of the above makes sense, you always have Goldman, which just blamed it all on, you guessed it, snow.

Why this mockery?

If you do a minimal effort of news searching you'll see that it's a fact that Germany got hit by unusually extreme weather patterns this winter.

But I guess global warming deniars deny that extreme weather patterns are occuring.

They are denying that the US is experiencing far more record highs than record low temperatures:

http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2009/images/temps_2.jpg

they deny that 2010 was the hottest year on record either:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

and they deny that after a solar minimum, a maximum is in the works for 2011/2012/2013, causing even more weather volatility than we had in 2010:

http://www.climate4you.com/images/TSI%20LASP%20Since2003.gif

"Move on, nothing to see here, it's just a regular earthquake!". (The Eruption Denial Faction of Pompeii, 24th of August, 79 AD)

 

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 10:01 | Link to Comment Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

AGW = State sponsored Nature worship.

Just Sacrifice enough and we promise to control the weather.

Longest running scam in human history.

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 10:08 | Link to Comment More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

"The Mount Vesuvius eruption theory is the longest running scam of Rome!"

"Eruption scientists falsified the data to support this illegal tax on the wealthy!"

"This is just a regular earthquake, last summer has proven it beyond doubt that Mount Vesuvius is about to enter a protracted period of inactivity!"

(EDF of Pompeii news conference exerpts, dated 24th of August, 79 AD)

 

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 10:16 | Link to Comment Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

See what happens when you trust the government?

"Never trust a woman, or a government."

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 10:57 | Link to Comment More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

See what happens when you trust the government?

Unfortunately no survivals of the libertarian, anti-government Eruption Denial Faction of Pompeii were found, so sadly we have no first-hand reports of what happens to those who do not "trust" volcano eruption warnings.

 

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 10:56 | Link to Comment Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

And yet, the world is still moving on.

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 10:59 | Link to Comment More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

I'd actively encourage you to go as near to government predicted volcano eruptions as possible!

And yes, the world will indeed be moving on.

 

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 12:34 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Why not compare AGW to gravity? We all know how easy it is to take the Earth's temperature and isolate two variables out of 1 mil. Just like measuring the time a ball takes to fall a certain distance. AGW is settled science. Sure...

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 18:40 | Link to Comment More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

Face it, AGW itself is settled science.

For example look at these numbers, the numbers of extreme high and extreme low temperature readings in the US:

http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2009/images/temps_2.jpg

Can you see a pattern? If yes, which way are the numbers going, up or down?

Where there's still a lot of uncertainty in predictions (due to the complexity of the atmosphere, due to the hard to predict nature of the solar magnetic cycle) is not that humans caused global warming (that's undisputed scientifically), but the precise shape of how global warming will play out in the decades to come. (as a function of how much CO2 we release into the atmosphere)

Most of the models have been depressingly accurate so far though, and with every new satellite in space and with every doubling in supercomputer capacity they are getting more and more accurate.

 

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 10:09 | Link to Comment UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

I thought the longest running scam was give to the church and you won't go to hell?

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 10:19 | Link to Comment Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Actually, No.

Most ancient religions got started as a means to explain weather. Then some smart scam artist claimed if only the proles would sacrifice to the gods, they would bring back spring. Or rain for the crops. Or end the drought...

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 10:22 | Link to Comment snowball777
snowball777's picture

Trickle down!

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 10:33 | Link to Comment More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

Winter of 2010-2011 facts:

https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Winter_of_2010%E2%80%9320...

Germany

Germany experienced its coldest December since 1969.[22][23] The month was slightly milder in the south, due to two notable periods of thawing and maximum temperatures of up to +15 °C around 8 December and shortly before Christmas.[24] The average temperature was -3.7 °C which was 4.5 °C below the long term mean. This made December 2010 the fourth coldest of the last 120 years. Only 1890, 1969 and 1933 were colder. The cold was strongest in the northern half of Germany with deviations from the long term mean between -5 °C and -6 °C.

Additionally to the cold, about 60% of the German Weather Service's weather stations below 200 m elevation saw record snow falls for December.[25] Notably, Aachen, in Germany's west, had 36 cm of snow, breaking the old record of 25 cm. The heavy snowfalls between 22 and 25 December provided for a white Christmas for all of Germany - the first time since 1981.[24] On 26 December, Gera had a snow cover of 70 cm, also a new record. However, these snowfalls and freezing rain caused chaotic conditions for those travelling home for Christmas.[26] Similar conditions had already occurred at the beginning of the month. At Germany's busiest airport in Frankfurt, many flights were cancelled for the second day running on 2 December due to the severe weather conditions. Munich Airport and rail transport were also affected.[27]

Poland

18 people have died from exposure in Poland, where temperatures have dropped as low as −26 °C (−15 °F).[27]

 

Belgium

On December 18, Belgium had recorded 17 days with snow for this season, an absolute record.[28] A church in Diepenbeek collapsed on December 24 under the weight of the snow.[29]

 

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 10:39 | Link to Comment Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Global Cooling, Baby!

Why do you think the scammers changed the narrative to Climate Change?

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 10:45 | Link to Comment More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

Global Cooling, Baby!

Not really, 2010 was the hottest climate year on record:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

Why do you think the scammers changed the narrative to Climate Change?

You mean the anti-AGW scammers/idiots? I don't know, they are not particularly consistent in their arguments :-)

As far as AGW predictions go, more extreme weather (last year's extreme heat waves in eastern Europe, then the following extreme winter) and more precipitation (more snow, more rain) is what was predicted by various AGW models for the geographical region of continental Europe, years ago.

That trend is predicted to continue in the next decades. White Christmas in Germany used to occur every 20 years in the past - it's predicted to be much more frequent in the future.

This year there was a white Christmas in Germany.

 

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 10:48 | Link to Comment Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

We can't control the weather. We adapt to it, or we die.

No amount of sacrifice will change that.

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 11:07 | Link to Comment More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

Of course humanity has impact on the weather - why do you think that a race that shaped the planet in ways that are visible from space to the naked eye has no impact on the weather?

And just like we can stop industries polluting rivers, just like we can build sanitation so that human waste does not pollute rivers with feces, can we stop humanity polluting the air with CO2 and warming up the planet.

If there is a God in the sky he'll be rolling his (or her?) eyes at your stupid ignorance and belief in helpless inaction. If you are a believer then you sure must have heard of the concept of:

"God helps those who help themselves"

http://www.soulprogress.com/html/ArticlesFolder/Articles/GodHelpsThose.s...

 

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 11:22 | Link to Comment Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

God protects children and fools. Algore will be fine.

The two most populous nations on earth get a pass, and we are gonna change the entire earth?

Talk about Faith Based...

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 11:44 | Link to Comment More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

You need to concentrate harder to stay on topic in a discussion!

I realize that your acute phase CBD [*] medical condition keeps you from writing anything even remotely relevant and factual, but you have to try and try, and never give up, as one day you may succeed ...

So please try again and try to make a point. Thanks!

[*] CBD: Compulsive Babbling Disorder

 

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 11:50 | Link to Comment Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Whatever. Your religion has been proved false. Deal with it.

Even with massive majorities in House and Senate the Commie Libs did not pass Cap N Trade.

It is over.

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 10:07 | Link to Comment blackbox
blackbox's picture

You seem to be going down some climate change conspiracy bandwagon thing that the thread was not about?

GS deserves to be mocked IMO because EVERY SINGLE miss has been blamed by them on the snow. That may work for selected non-SA data, but not to justify every miss being reported.

During the winter in the northern hemisphere it can get cold and it even snows - why should it not have snowed this year?

Having been over to see several businesses in Germany only a fortnight ago, not a single person mentioned the snow or 'extreme weather patterns' as causing any unusual problem for them in the major economic areas i.e. greater than what can normally be expected over an average winter.

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 10:24 | Link to Comment More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

Having been over to see several businesses in Germany only a fortnight ago, not a single person mentioned the snow or 'extreme weather patterns' as causing any unusual problem for them in the major economic areas i.e. greater than what can normally be expected over an average winter.

You must have visited a different Germany or you must have visited Germany in another year, not the winter of 2010-2011:

https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Winter_of_2010%E2%80%9320...

Germany

 


Germany experienced its coldest December since 1969.[22][23] The month was slightly milder in the south, due to two notable periods of thawing and maximum temperatures of up to +15 °C around 8 December and shortly before Christmas.[24] The average temperature was -3.7 °C which was 4.5 °C below the long term mean. This made December 2010 the fourth coldest of the last 120 years. Only 1890, 1969 and 1933 were colder. The cold was strongest in the northern half of Germany with deviations from the long term mean between -5 °C and -6 °C.

Additionally to the cold, about 60% of the German Weather Service's weather stations below 200 m elevation saw record snow falls for December.[25] Notably, Aachen, in Germany's west, had 36 cm of snow, breaking the old record of 25 cm. The heavy snowfalls between 22 and 25 December provided for a white Christmas for all of Germany - the first time since 1981.[24] On 26 December, Gera had a snow cover of 70 cm, also a new record. However, these snowfalls and freezing rain caused chaotic conditions for those travelling home for Christmas.[26] Similar conditions had already occurred at the beginning of the month. At Germany's busiest airport in Frankfurt, many flights were cancelled for the second day running on 2 December due to the severe weather conditions. Munich Airport and rail transport were also affected.[27]

 

Poland

18 people have died from exposure in Poland, where temperatures have dropped as low as −26 °C (−15 °F).[27]

 

Belgium

On December 18, Belgium had recorded 17 days with snow for this season, an absolute record.[28] A church in Diepenbeek collapsed on December 24 under the weight of the snow.[29]

So yes, construction in Germany was affected big time not just by record cold (which can be handled to a certain degree via technology) but by record levels of snow (which cannot be handled nearly as easily).

So the usually winter-robust german construction industry came to a standstill - not only were working conditions bad but there were regular transport interruptions as well.

It's really amazing how out of touch ZH reporting and readership can be with basic facts. How are you able to make money in the markets consistently if you know this planet so little and if you delude yourself so frequently?

 

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 10:31 | Link to Comment blackbox
blackbox's picture

I'm not sure how more in touch I could possibly be than physically being in Cologne and Munich and speaking directly with managers operating in the construction and manufacturing industries about how their businesses are doing.

The weather was not responsible for very much deviation from the standard.

I would rather believe them than GS.

I also make money whether the markets go up or down. I don't care from a trading perspective. I do care for my business perspective however.

Don't tar everyone with the same brush please. Were I to do that, I could have you down as a lonely geek typing away in your mother's basement.

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 10:37 | Link to Comment More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

I did not cite Goldman Sachs in the excerpts I quoted, I cited public reports and records of the extreme winter in Germany.

I'm sorry, maybe it's just me, but without you providing more data to support your position I rather believe my own damn lying eyes than some anonymous person on the Internet, calling himself "black box" :-)

This is a perpetual weakness of mine, I know.

 

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 10:54 | Link to Comment blackbox
blackbox's picture

You can produce all the weather reports you like, I am not disputing them, it is your erroneous conclusion that I dispute on the basis of actually living and working in the area and speaking to the people apparently affected.

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 11:45 | Link to Comment More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

You need to talk to those active in the German construction industry.

Hard numbers from the field show that the German construction industry came almost to a standstill in December, due to the cold and snow:

http://redaktion.boerse-go.de/cms/gallery/0000025560.jpg

The yellow line (Bauhauptgewerbe) is construction activities, not seasonally adjusted.

If you look at the graph you will see that the winter of 2009-2010 was already pretty hard (it has broken several snow and temperature records as well) - but the current 2010-2011 winter was an absolute killer.

And if you trust sporadic information from your "business contacts" more than you trust aggregated data from all participants of the German construction industry then you need to re-evaluate whether the opinion you have solicited is representative enough, statistically.

In case you doubt the data and your own lying eyes, you only need to check last winter's data: there was a dip there too, and it did not matter to the actual 2010 German growth results. Construction work generally gets delayed but not cancelled by a hard winter.

 

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 14:39 | Link to Comment blackbox
blackbox's picture

Not sure whether it is arrogance or ignorance, but you make a lot of assumptions about me. That appears to cloud your ability to reason and understand what I am saying. Lose the attitude son and open your eyes to the possibility that someone else in the world knows more than you about something.

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 18:26 | Link to Comment More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

I'm only making reasonable assumptions about you: that you are from Europe, possibly from the UK, that you generally trade short and thus you are biased to see world events in a more negative light than they really are.

I'm not convinced you have any significant non-public information from the field in Germany though. I'm making an educated guess that you are short DAX, perhaps at the double top that it reached today. If you went DAX short sooner than today you are probably disappointed by it reaching new highs today, despite the string of numerically disappointing macro news.

You are certainly free to prove any of the statements I made in this thread wrong via verifiable information.

 

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 12:36 | Link to Comment jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

There's extreme weather EVERY YEAR.....SOMEWHERE.

At any given time it's snowing somewhere in the World.

Did Germany have more snow than previously? Sure.  I can assure you it's not a record though, because to actually set a record, you need millions of years of data, not 30 years of weather data (and a couple hundered more using ever older techniques)

The premise ZH makes is right, because overall, snow effects things somewhere every year, and every year we get by just fine.  Every year, while there is an effect somewhere, these are baked into the cake, or are an EXPECTED deviation...due to WINTER.

People are acting like this snow storm is really different.  It's only different because YOU ARE PRECEIVING IT DIFFERENT.

It's so sad.  Snow happens every year, just because Germany and some other places were hit a little harder, other places were indeed not hit.  Some places last year that got heavy snow, this year didn't.   You see these areas help offset Germany being worse this year.  Next year, maybe france has a cold winter, and germany more mild.  You see in AGGREGATE, winter's effects have ALWAYS been in extreme in one location (where the storms occur).  Either way, it doesn't significantly affect things.  Even if they lost 1 month due to construction, well then, don't they work overtime the next month and CATCH UP?  So what was really lost...due to weather?

It's not that these things don't happen, or can't change things, it's just that this sort of cyclicality has always been built into the markets.  Because weather related stuff happens.  It usually doesn't bring down countries, and if it was the final straw that broke the camel's back, then it wasn't that piece of straw's fault.

People just can't understand that you can't blame snow for everything.  Indeed ZH calling out the snow excuse is valid. If the markets can't accept a little snow on their parade, then that is an example of a deeper, more systemic problem.  

People need to understand how to USE data, not just rely on it.

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 18:29 | Link to Comment More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

There's extreme weather EVERY YEAR.....SOMEWHERE.

That's not the point. The point is that we are seeing patterns, such as getting more extreme events. For example see the number of extreme highs and extreme lows temperatures in the US:

http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2009/images/temps_2.jpg

Can you see the trend in those numbers? If yes, which direction is the trend going, up or down?

 

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 12:19 | Link to Comment jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

I guess Queen of England Green Fascists like you are so stupid they don't realize that big storms happened before.  Weather by it's nature is 'extreme'.  Idiot.

Oh it's getting more extreme.  No, you're just buying a line of bullshit.

Oh and when it comes to global warming, you have to first forget that we're in a inter-glacial period. 

Which is why the Queen FIRST called it...get this...global cooling...then in the 70's....she switched it to global warming...now it's 'more extreme' weather.

Besides, nothing she wants, will 'help' the planet, it will destroy US, and on top of that, no one ever stated why we must be the first to keep a planet at the same temperature from this point forward.  Not react to it.  Not build bigger sea walls.  (to stop it...above all else).

Green Fascists are just as looney as Big Ben, all of who make Forrest Gump look like Einstein. 

Next time you post info, make sure it isn't BUNK.

Faulty models

Cherry Picking

Being oblivious to 'heat island effect' and using that as data in FAVOR of 'global warming'.

You see because Atlanta is 15 degrees hotter, we must be having global warming.

ROFL Global Warming, isn't Pompeii.  Nice try, but you can't latch onto that because the two are completely different.  Just because Pompeii was a volcano people were living on (and how could they of mitigated the threat...MOVE AWAY).  How can people mitigate the ALWAYS (and before humans) changing Earth? Well if we decide to waster our limited resources on a really stupid plan like that, we could build in higher areas, abandon low lying areas, and you know move.  Last I check the sea didn't rise like a storm surge.  A snail can outrun the so called effects of 'global warming'.

Pyroclastic flows? That's another story.

What fucking dumbasses people are.  Keep believing the next wall street scam with carbon credits, they are just as fraudulent as the TBTF's derivatives portfolio.

(and here's another thing, if weather happens every year, then the effect of SNOW would be there last year and all other previous metrics.  Thus a drop of because of snow, since snow happens most years around that time (or something to that effect), the numbers shouldn't be significantly off, because previous years had to deal with the same circumstances.

That's why ZH is calling them out (among other reasons)

So here in Phx, if it gets to 115, does that mean the same thing? But it was 115 last year, so if we compare the two days with similar heat (AS OPPOSED TO SNOW), the effects are similar, and thus don't influence the comparison (very much) between the two year's numbers. 

Some people are fucking idiots.  Some people are idiots being fucked.  You sir, sound like both.

You want real green instead of FASCIST GREEN? Talk to LaRouche.  He's anti-fascist green, which is what you are.  You aren't really 'green', you're a fascist, and I'm calling your side out. 

If you want to prove you're more interested in the good side of green as oppposed to the fascist side, you should support NAWAPA. If you don't, then you're a fucking joke.

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 09:53 | Link to Comment More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

...

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 10:11 | Link to Comment El Hosel
Tue, 02/08/2011 - 09:00 | Link to Comment the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

..Because Germany never gets snow!!!! haaaaa Ponzi mind twist masters

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 09:04 | Link to Comment hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

 What an excuse...

 Pathetical attitude

 GS please go home and recognise the vast majority of economies are in default-....

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 09:07 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Oh yeah? Which kind of snow?

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 09:18 | Link to Comment Sathington Willougby
Sathington Willougby's picture

Yellow snow aka Olympia Snowe.

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 09:24 | Link to Comment Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Is yellow the color of turncoats?

 

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 09:29 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Yellow snow. Reminds me of a ski trip in Big Sky after too much to drink and way too far up the mountain

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 09:25 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

The snow we call blow.

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 09:10 | Link to Comment lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

Maybe the Rothschilds are catching on to this. There's no business like snow business you know.

http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/press/stake-weather-central-lp,163574...

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 09:11 | Link to Comment 4xaddict
4xaddict's picture

+ snow

The new GS mantra or maybe "Snow Bitchez".

It would be more acceptable if they just completely took the piss.

 

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 09:14 | Link to Comment Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

With Global Cooling and broke PIIGS, who is Germany going to sell all that Green Tech to?

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 09:15 | Link to Comment Hollywood
Hollywood's picture

What is the opposite of snow?  Is it rain or no snow or clear skies? 

The ways things are going right now, EVERY day in a month will have to be clear, 72 degrees, sunny, no wind in order to meet expectations.  I'm sure I left an excuse out.

Wait a minute...the machines run most effeciently at 71 degrees...nevermind.

"Expectations missed because the temperature was not the optimal for production."

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 09:36 | Link to Comment Wynn
Wynn's picture

And Spring is very rainy, Summer is too hot to work, and Autumn has all the pretty colors. I don't see how anything can possibly get done this year. lol

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 09:16 | Link to Comment The Limerick King
The Limerick King's picture

So Europe is now in a hole

And Goldman thinks snow played a role

So let me be clear

If the end is now near

It's because the Elites have no soul.

 

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 09:19 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

Krugman and the rest of the whole world need to get over the fucking weather already and start getting down to business.

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 09:20 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Yeah. Notice the need to keep advancing weak arguments and stretching the truth. That's a mark of low confidence. 

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 09:26 | Link to Comment viator
viator's picture

What are they going to do when there is no longer any snow?

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 09:27 | Link to Comment blind squirrel
blind squirrel's picture

The Germans don't need any industrial porduction.  Now they only export capital to the peripherals.

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 09:29 | Link to Comment oh_bama
oh_bama's picture

This guy is too pessimistic and unamerican

Remember: Recession has been over for more than a year! Now US is in normal time and is growing at 4% a year.

More americans retired early due to increased wealth and confidence, and low inflation expectations

More Americans pursuing graduate degrees including MBAs due to increased future outlook and higher pay!!

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 09:31 | Link to Comment akatako13
akatako13's picture

f**k, snows in moscow all the time )))

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 09:41 | Link to Comment scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

Yeah, factory orders are only up 19.7% y/y, thats a bearish number indeed. More can kicking needed, blood and guts everywhere.

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 10:07 | Link to Comment UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

LOL soon snow will be declared a menace to society

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 10:22 | Link to Comment Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Government should just make a law making snow illegal.

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 10:42 | Link to Comment snowball777
snowball777's picture

Public Enemy #1, !zehctiB

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 11:54 | Link to Comment HTZMR
HTZMR's picture

As a big fan of Zero Hedge, i would disagree with the overly pessimistic view and would point out that based on figures from both the Econ Ministry and the Federal Statistics Office, this was the single biggest monthly drop in construction activity they have on record. Since I am unaware of any major bankruptcies, it would appear weather-related since adjustments only smooth out historical seasonal effects. The output data is backward looking anyway since we already have an initial estimate for Q4 GDP growth of 0.5 pct q-on-q. Readers should be paying more attention to the Ifo/PMI surveys and industry orders figures that are at least forward-looking. Here business confidence is at a 20 year high and SA unemployment at a low not seen since March 1992 and employment is recorded at a post-reunification high. Re weather: don't forget growth in Germany was weak in Q1 2010 before picking up to 2.2 percent q-on-q (equivalent on an annualized basis to nearly 9 percent, i.e. China-level growth) partly because of postponed construction activity. The German economy never went through the same credit-fuelled bubble that the U.S. or U.K. saw, nor does it actively weaken its currency. It remains competitive as an exporter despite being a high-wage country thanks to unions that recognised maximising jobs at the cost of higher wage growth is needed to compete with Korea, China, etc. As bearish as i am about the U.S., I am far more optimistic that Germany can continue to grow thanks to its exports to emerging markets - as long as they stay healthy it shouldn't trigger a renewed recession for now. The big question is its still large exposure to the U.S. and euro zone economies and the heavily undercapitalised banking sector. Germans at least have high personal savings rates (above 10 pct) that serve as a nest egg for when the shit hits the fan.

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 12:31 | Link to Comment glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

While the miss in expectations was a point worth noting, it's the fact that we continue to have people blaming things on weather. It's the fall guy for indicators that don't conform to expectations. Pundits / economists / TV idiots are using it right now as a crutch to explain everything....because it's the easy excuse.

Let's see, I could blame lots of things on the weather, but I'd be called on the carpet for not living up to expectations....

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 13:20 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

And here I lay my head to weep. Golden locks and all.

Tue, 02/08/2011 - 13:48 | Link to Comment djsmps
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