Goldman Boosts Q4 GDP Estimate From 4% to 5.8%; Economic Status Quo Expected To Continue

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Sat, 01/16/2010 - 14:39 | 195957 E pluribus unum
E pluribus unum's picture

".... a competition as to who can fabricate, manipulate, inflate, stimulate and other "-ates", the fastest. "

 

Don't forget masturbate. They seem to be doing that one particularly well.

Sat, 01/16/2010 - 16:36 | 196043 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

An rather disgusting visual in terms of 8-armed cephalopods.

Dexterity, a trait essential for tool use and manipulation is also found in cephalopods. The highly sensitive suction cups and prehensile arms of octopuses, squid, and cuttlefish are just as effective at holding and manipulating objects as the human hand. (Wikipedia)

Sun, 01/17/2010 - 12:57 | 196592 seventree
seventree's picture

Confabulate: that says it all

Sat, 01/16/2010 - 14:52 | 195968 Hansel
Hansel's picture

Squid propaganda

Sat, 01/16/2010 - 15:08 | 195976 Cursive
Cursive's picture

+1

Sat, 01/16/2010 - 21:56 | 196235 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

Whoever invests or trades based on GoldmanShams press releases is an idiot, in my opinion.

7 months and still no indictment on that July 4 arrest of Sergey for stealing software "that can manipulate markets in unfair ways".

FREE SERGEY

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1514408020100116?type=marketsNews

 

Sat, 01/16/2010 - 16:35 | 196042 Anonymous
Sat, 01/16/2010 - 14:55 | 195969 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The elite are extracting as much blood from the rabble's suffering as they possibly can. JP Morgan running food stamp program, bankruptcies enriching the elite thugs.
Eventually this shill will collapse, who knows when?

Sat, 01/16/2010 - 16:54 | 196061 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

"JP Morgan running food stamp program, bankruptcies enriching the elite thugs."

You got it, anony. JPM issues food stamp debit cards for several states...

And then charges the poor saps a transaction fee every time they use the card. It is a fat fee like an ATM charge.

The excuse is that it stops the poor from selling food stamps for cash, less than face value or getting change back (coins) from dollar denominated food purchases... oh the fraud of collecting change from your food stamp purchases to buy a beer...

Let's replace it by allowing JPM to skim millions off of the broke ass sheeple. Disgusting bloodsuckers. I see no change.

Obama is George Bush in black face... ask Harry Reid.

Sun, 01/17/2010 - 14:16 | 196659 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Ya you have to make your giving the most controlling possible or people will take advantage of you.

Oh wait. JP Morgan doesn't MAKE anythig those people consume. I wonder why they are involved at ALL. Get your farmer slave access. We've got the farmers convinced about supply and demand and keep things priced to keep them share cropping for us.

Sat, 01/16/2010 - 15:15 | 195980 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

If China's currency devalues, then the Dollar would gain. If it's all deflationary, then gold marches back down and the dollar gains.

Seems impossible to believe, but there it is.

Sat, 01/16/2010 - 15:16 | 195981 DavidC
DavidC's picture

The Fed will not raise interest rates until it has to - it will use QE or MBS (etc) purchases/sales to move money into (or out of) the system.

Krugman displays an amazing naivete and lack of common sense for a Nobel prize winner.

What can the GSEs do given their current parlous situation and continued support by taxpayers' money? If they try and do more to keep the system where it is, the more of a message they will be sending out to say how dire the housing or economic situation is.

Jim Cramer? Hmm, all I can say there is bring back Dennis Kneale, I had at least a bit more sympathy for him!

Your final paragraph sums up the GS side of things very well.

DavidC

Sat, 01/16/2010 - 15:26 | 195994 HumbleServant
HumbleServant's picture
My guess is that the Fed knows that the US will never pay off the debt it has accumulated and is now continuing to accumulate at an exponential rate.  They don't even have the goal (or mindset) of trying to pay it off.  All they want to do is "manage" it.   Well, now it has become "unmanageable".  Why do I say that?  Because if you really look at all the different types of "programs" and new accounting rules that have come into play recently and call a spade a spade, they are all forms of monetization.  When a country has a fiat money system that has become so inefficient that they have to monetize to keep the game going, that tells me that they have run out of options.   The Fed knows if interest rates go up that the housing market is history, unemployment will skyrocket, the stock market will crater and that leads to more mortgage defaults and another big loss in 401K values.  This will lead to big problems for the govt. and the Fed.   Therefore, I think they will do everything in their power to continue their "backdoor monetization" plans to keep interest rates down.  When natural market forces actually overcome this monetization and force interest rates up, look out.  Remember, we're really only a little over a year into these monetization programs.   Has any country that has resorted to monetization ever fixed its problems by doing that and then returned to a normal, healthy economic system?
Sat, 01/16/2010 - 17:13 | 196075 jesus
jesus's picture

It is far too early for such thinking. Our debt:GDP is really not that bad (yet).

Sun, 01/17/2010 - 03:40 | 196389 Nout Wellink
Nout Wellink's picture

Add unfunded liabilities and the ratio IS bad. Very bad.

Sat, 01/16/2010 - 17:59 | 196106 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Amen

Sun, 01/17/2010 - 10:38 | 196477 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

What we are watching is an exact replay of preworld
War II financial issues. Just at that time it was
Germany that tried what the US is doing. I call it an
"all in" approach by the Governement. It may fail (I
think it will fail) but if you put yourslef in their
shoes you would probably do some of the same things.

From my perspective I thnk the key things are to stop
senseless progams like the Helath Care tax increase
legislation along with the "pork" spending.

We must breakup or tax the monoploies of land labor
and capital that we have permitted. If we dont we will
never create jobs; capital will flow to these monsters
and starve the start ups; labor will stop imagination;
and we will live in a worldwide glut of structural over capacity.

Sat, 01/16/2010 - 15:16 | 195982 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Does Goldman own Litton or did they sell it?

Obama mortgage relief program fails to deliver
Obama mortgage plan doesn't deliver 11 months later; only 66,500 homeowners helped so far

That's a problem for homeowners like Cindy Rose, 52, of Murietta, Calif. She and her husband have seen their painting business drained by the recession.

So they went to their mortgage company, Litton Loan Servicing Inc., for help. In August, they were approved on a trial basis for the Obama plan. The couple's new payment was about $1,700 a month, down from about $2,650.

But a few weeks later, they got a confusing letter in the mail explaining several potential reasons for their rejection.

A Litton spokeswoman declined to comment on the Rose family's case, but said that the company "is following the program's guidelines."

They have since filed for bankruptcy and staved off foreclosure so far. But Rose fears she and her husband, who was recently diagnosed with lung cancer, will soon lose their home of 13 years.

"All these horrible things have happened in the economy," she said. "And there's nobody there for you."

http://tinyurl.com/yl3d44w

Sat, 01/16/2010 - 15:23 | 195991 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

Is 6% even believable?  <start sarcasm> I find 10% even more credible because 10 is bigger than 6 <end sarcasm>

Sat, 01/16/2010 - 17:07 | 196069 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

I got the 6% Q4 GDP blues.

Sat, 01/16/2010 - 15:33 | 195998 john_connor
john_connor's picture

As a follow up to what TD said, who cares what the 4th quarter GDP number is?  It is whatever bs number the gov feels like reporting.  Equities are forward looking anyway, and good luck comparing against the current "good" (ahh yes, better than expected) numbers when earnings are reported next quarter and beyond.

Also, as an extension to the above, who gives a phuck as to what the headline employment number will be?  Everyone knows the number is bs and that real unemployment is somewhere north of 20%.  And most of the jobs lost are never coming back, at least not for a long while.

In the end, this economy is the mother of all Madoffs, Lehmans, and Enrons combined to the 10th power; reporting "solid" numbers while everything rots underneath or with nothing underneath to begin with.  Cash flows do matter, and the cash crunch of the millenium is just getting started.

SELL ALL RIPS AND MELTUPS.

Sat, 01/16/2010 - 15:32 | 195999 pak
pak's picture

"A large, inventory-driven, fourth-quarter surge"? Care to show the data proving the inventory rebuild was THAT large?

Is this a reversal of the now-famous Q3 downward revision deception?

Sat, 01/16/2010 - 15:40 | 196002 rawsienna
rawsienna's picture

Political winds are changing.  Additional stimulus will be difficult in that most voters are against it.  Most economist think that congress will pass stimulus if needed in a election year - I doubt Congress can pass any meaningful stimulus.  Budget hawks will be rewarded. Spenders will be sent home.  Fed will have to do QE2 when economy slips in Q2 and they will buy long term treasuries this time -not mortgages.  GOldman will be right about rates Morgan Stanley will be wrong. Plus, where would stock be if mtg rates are 7%.  If retail investors can buy govt guaranteed MBS at a 6.5% yield in a 1-2% inflation environment -stocks get destroyed.

Sat, 01/16/2010 - 15:49 | 196012 lawton
lawton's picture

These GDP numbers are a joke but even with their manipulation I think by Q3 or Q4 the number will go negative again and it will be called a double dip recession but we will be going into a depression for quite a few years imo.

Sat, 01/16/2010 - 16:12 | 196029 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

...a depression with inflation where everyones home is worth $0, stocks are worth even less, and gold is golden!

Sun, 01/17/2010 - 23:11 | 196952 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

And how are $0 value homes and stocks (somehow less than zero, apparently bought on margin) inflation? Just asking...Not that I think we won't approach something that FEELS like that, but please clarify. Sounds like Deflation.

Sat, 01/16/2010 - 16:03 | 196019 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

Making those rosy GDP numbers is going to require some help from the GDP deflator. We've already had a long and fruitful discussion about how government intervention in the commodity exchanges has prevented large speculators from pushing up the price of oil, and certainly they can do the same thing in the grains.

In the final outcome you may want to own Fannie and Freddie, as their current pile of debt is zero interest denominated, (when rates go up buyers will scramble for their paper) -which is something I don't understand, just ahead of the 2008 crisis I thought the Fed would raise rates, because they would provide the -re-inflation kick start? instead they took them to zero, which put the economy in an induced coma -

to the benefit of the GSE's rising rates would cause a scamble for the paper that is already out there, and bring their balance sheets up to snuff in a Wall Street minute. Since the Treasury is backing the asset value of these homes, the only matter of interest to the lender is the cost of servicing their loan portfolio. Buying the GSE's is like buying a coupon, the asset price of the bond doesn't matter.

In a value neutral world, the cost of a home is a formula based on the value of the land, the labor and materials, and the cost of borrowing, so any one of those changes the other changes. Raise rates and the selling price has to be adjusted lower, and labor and commodity costs deflate as well. Lowering rates had the opposite effect, however the supply demand ratio in construction labor was offset by lax immigration policy, and commodity prices spiked because interest rates were too low, and the supply demand equation, driven by the 'wealth effect', stock appreciation in a hyperinflated equities market, coupled with low rates, which fueled the housing bubble. If you raise rates in this environment, housing prices will appreciate because commodity prices will fall, and labor and construction wages will rise, which is a desirable thing.

Rising rates also inflate away a mountain of Treasury debt, and put a floor under housing prices. The fed must have known they could solve the problem by pursuing a more normal market yield, but they clearly had another agenda, (saving the investment banks). Bernanke came onto office on a mantra of targeted inflation!!! Where the hell do these guys go once they are elected, or appointed??

The financial crisis was engineered to poison the ground for the incoming administration. When Obama failed to realize this you had to know it was going to be a bumpy ride.



 

Sat, 01/16/2010 - 16:07 | 196024 deadhead
deadhead's picture

I find it interesting that as of the last approx 3 weeks or so, an increasing number of bullish sell side pumpers are adopting the shitty 2nd half 2010 mantra.  Just an observation of a trend that I've read developing.

 

Sat, 01/16/2010 - 20:09 | 196171 Rainman
Rainman's picture

I've noted likewise, DH. It appears to be an effort to haze the Fed on discontinuance of agency MBS purchases......like a " don't stop now or else" deal on impeding growth.

A bunch of crack addicts running out of supply at midnight.

Sat, 01/16/2010 - 20:24 | 196181 deadhead
deadhead's picture

yep, i believe you are right.  it's also a setup for yet another couple of different stimulus programs to fund Rahm's mid term campaign committee.

naturally, the street wants more liquidity to pump her higher and higher and really make a killing when the rug gets pulled again.

 

Sat, 01/16/2010 - 16:50 | 196057 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

OF COURSE

Current monthly budget deficit is running at $120 billion (i.e. stimulus). That is equal to
- all monthly sales at WalMart, Target, Costco, Lowes, Home Depot, and McDonalds PLUS
- all monthly new car sales PLUS
- all monthly new home sales
with $20 billion left over.

No wonder the economy is growing - all on the nation's credit card. Yeah, that worked real well last time too.

Sat, 01/16/2010 - 17:41 | 196095 SDRII
SDRII's picture

Inventory build? Where? Business inventories have been rising as a function of petroleum/coal and to lesser extent food stuffs.  Durable inventories continue to shrink while nondurable scontinue to rise. Retail wholesale inventories dropped -0.4% last month while sales climbed 2%. The inventory mirage is almost exclusively driven by oil - wihthe glut well covered. Industrial production showed a slowedown in manufacturing - with vehicles build rates declining. What a complete joke

Sat, 01/16/2010 - 17:50 | 196102 D.M. Ryan
D.M. Ryan's picture

"Goldman just threw out the last trump card in its current sell-side arsenal by increasing Q4 GDP estimates from 4% to a paroxysmal attack inducing 5.8%."

And the number just might hit their target...

...before the first revision.

Sat, 01/16/2010 - 18:15 | 196111 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The economy is growing much faster than 6%.

The key metric (from God's Man Sachs) is the cost of purchasing a key congressman (Barney Franks*, while not very tasty, would be an example). This is an updated version of the PPP McDonald's Hamburger index for assessing the relative worth of various currencies.

The Key Congressman Index (KCI) has been on a tear. KCI is up 50% in just the last two years. Adjusting for increased effectiveness (M. Boskin, thank you) of about 20% over the same time period, we see a "blowing adjusted" increase in value of about 25% over two years. YOY this is a little under 12% (remembering to adjust for compounding).

There you have it, God's Man Sachs taking the long view as owner of these United States is seeing costs rising at ~12% per annum. As God's Man never gets a bad deal, this must mean that the productive value of the country is rising at at least the same rate. Bingo God's Man sandbags the estimate at 6% (always need to leave room for the upside surprise).

I do miss the days of Abby Joe.

* Note that the Franks' example is not necessarily representative. While Franks' appearance continues to degrade, the pleasure derived from his services has been continually improving. (Apparently somethings get better with practice.)

Sat, 01/16/2010 - 20:34 | 196186 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

My 2 year old old nephew can throw out numbers too. Who cares anymore. They are just GDP numbers. Who is checking them anyway? What ever the market wants to hear. Lets just say 9,000% GDP and call it a day. Who the fuck cares anymore? This whole administration is one big lie anyway. While they are at it, say unemployment is now 1%. WHO CARES? ITS ONE BIG LIE!!!

Sat, 01/16/2010 - 21:34 | 196221 Molon Labe
Molon Labe's picture

I see GDP right now as the flaccid washed-up porn star who can only get a hard-on by taking a bottle of purple pills with a vodka chaser and snorting coke off a hooker's behind.

Not exactly the picture of health, no matter what type of stimulus is the inflationary vehicle.

4%, 6%, hell, make it 25%.  Call your primary dealer and let the powder flow.

Sat, 01/16/2010 - 21:57 | 196237 deadhead
deadhead's picture

Tyler:

Is this a triple or a quadruple reverse psychology play?

Thank you in advance.

Sat, 01/16/2010 - 23:52 | 196297 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The GDP number is like, Corporate earnings, do whatever it takes to make the number the street is looking for.

Sun, 01/17/2010 - 01:05 | 196340 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

This is nothing. The 1st Q 2010 lie will be EVEN BIGGER.

Sun, 01/17/2010 - 08:57 | 196432 emsolý
emsolý's picture

is this estimate on the advance or the final number? you know, there's a difference. sometimes a big one.

Sun, 01/17/2010 - 12:10 | 196551 Gimp
Gimp's picture

Total BS on the GDP predictions. Looks like the old pump and dump by the wall street gangstas...they are probably singing "it's my birthday, by fiddy in the office.

Where I live businesses are struggling, sales are down, businesses are not hiring and keeping inventories low. I would be surprised if the real GDP is 2%.

Sun, 01/17/2010 - 14:20 | 196660 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

No people bought a TON of computers last quarter. REALLY. They all had to set up new workstations for their new employees. And everyones computer was old so they bought a new one. And ok you caught us. The government bought it all cause they got tired of the World Bank getting it's dark mysterious financial transactions tracked.

Sun, 01/17/2010 - 12:27 | 196566 docj
docj's picture

Simply. Incredible.

Rocket the market up, short the hell out of it the day before the first estimate is announced, buy at the bottom - again.

Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

Sun, 01/17/2010 - 12:47 | 196579 mcarthur
mcarthur's picture

I think Goldman nailed it myself.  There is way too much slack out there for inflation and interest rates to track upwards.  If everyone is so concerned about debt loads then explain the 10 year Japan bond yield to me.  An orderly decrease in the $USD is perfectly fine since it should have never been where it was in the first place.  And I would not worry too much about Fannie and Freddie.  The trick is to get these guys off everyones radar screen like the CMHC is up here in Canada.  Their balance sheet has tripled in the past two years and in consequence house prices have rebounded 19% in the past year.  So Obama is taking a page from this playbook. 

Sun, 01/17/2010 - 12:47 | 196580 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Uh, oh...so as some of you don't miss the point,
(noting that reading comprehension is not a strong
suit for some ZH readers) the vampire squid is now bearish. GS regards its own 4th quarter GDP estimate as all stimulus and inventory adjustment followed by a slippery slope downhill for the balance of the year. Good luck with that dip buying, bulls.

Sun, 01/17/2010 - 14:53 | 196682 swordfish
swordfish's picture

Buying more MBS, even by GSE, will not prop up the equity makrets. Its the PD accounts (balance sheets) that matters. If PD gets money, then BANG, here goes the pump. If they will not get new money (will not sell more MBS ) then market would fall.

 

BTW, read a lot more in FED liquidity report from wallstreetexaminer.com

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/category/money-and-the-fed/

 

really good reports

Mon, 01/18/2010 - 01:54 | 197010 Cyan Lite
Cyan Lite's picture

American Idol is back on.  While the public is in a dazed trance, expect non-sense economic stimulus that benefits a few select states (namely Virginia, California, Ohio, Florida) for their blue-leaning tendencies.  Crony Stimulus FTW!

Everybody expects a recovery to happen because it's "always happened", as if it's some natural right of the Universe. 

 

 

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sun1's picture

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sun's picture

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