Goldman Capitulates (Again): Downgrades Q1 GDP To 2.5%, Sees Outlook For H2 As "Messy"

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Sun, 04/03/2011 - 20:46 | 1130868 vas deferens
vas deferens's picture

Another very bullish sign for the market.

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 20:55 | 1130888 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

GLOBEX opens and silver shoots past $38.


Sun, 04/03/2011 - 21:23 | 1130952 CPL
CPL's picture

Until May.


Sell in May then go away.

Mon, 04/04/2011 - 12:26 | 1132849 tamboo
tamboo's picture

maybe theyll beat you to the punch
and pull the plug on black friday part 2 april 29.

"The world is within a 20 trading day window of the greatest asset valuation collapse in history. Intuitive is the premise that without the multitrillion exnihilo ('out of nothing' - G) dollar bailout by the world's central banks, world equity/commodity valuations would be less than their current bubble value. This money printing is beyond any historical provided easy credit. The results will likewise be historical."

(page down to lammert's latest outlook)

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 20:47 | 1130870 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Just watched Fight Club again. Us space monkeys are proud. Tyler, we thank you.

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 20:48 | 1130877 bankrupt JPM bu...
bankrupt JPM buy silver's picture

I am in a fight club...and some guy in it asked me if I read ZH....fuck, if he only knew. (and yes I already violated rule 1 of FC)

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 21:01 | 1130908 Selah
Selah's picture

Dude, could you get some control over the morons that post on your blog?


Sun, 04/03/2011 - 22:30 | 1131107 slow_roast
slow_roast's picture

He is the moron that posts on his blog. 

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 20:53 | 1130881 random shots
random shots's picture

and the futures yawn...there most be some hidden message in the report that reads "sell on x date" <tin foil hat\off>

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 20:53 | 1130882 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Silver is above $38 an ounce. Silver is an antiviral substance for Banksters after all.

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 21:13 | 1130929 Selah
Selah's picture


Yes, Silver has anti-bankterial properties...


Sun, 04/03/2011 - 20:53 | 1130884 Astute Investor
Astute Investor's picture

I guess "messy" = 1500 target for SPX...

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 20:52 | 1130885 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Funny how Goldman flip flops on its economic outlook, currency targets, etc.

They keep vibrating the traders like a huge sheet of sheet metal, constantly bucking them off, causing them to lose their grip on their positions.

Typcial PigMen shakedowns.

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 21:06 | 1130919 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

they got a vibrator alright.  "it's all the buzz" from what i hear.

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 23:53 | 1131326 rocker
rocker's picture

My wife said the Hitachi Magic Wand I got here was the best gift ever. I get all the good stuff I need now. Trust me guys, buy your lady one. 

Hitachi knows how to Melt my little lady and they know how to Melt a City. Unlike GE, they really do it all.


Sun, 04/03/2011 - 21:45 | 1130993 nmewn
nmewn's picture

What traders?

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 22:00 | 1131032 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

reading you calling goldman flip flop artists is comical. you are the king of flip flops: fight the fed. don't fight the fed. jpm has a silver short position. the jpm short position is a myth. i'm itching to get short. i'll stay long until the summation index cracks. i'm an uber bull. i'm only long 30% of my investable money. gold is for dullards. i have gold stocks and gold coins. pigmen always win. leh and bear collapse. i could go on. but most zh veterans already know your low ways.

btw: who are the pigmen shaking down given market low volumes, and 1% of the population owning half the market?

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 22:01 | 1131043 JR
JR's picture

Hatzius (Goldman Sachs) can say whatever he wants, of course; and it’s good for Zero Hedge to put it on.  It shows what’s going on - the king’s ministers are telling us what the king’s going to do. 

Is it the truth?  Probably not, since they keep changing it. And since when does the “nimble” Goldman hem and haw over what “Fed officials” say or worry over a split on the FOMC when Goldman is the NYFed, i.e., the Fed, i.e., the don of dons…

The interesting thing is, these are revisions of the projections that have yet to be realized, and the next message we get will be more projections that haven’t been realized yet.  It’s like telling you a year in advance who’s going to win the World Series,  the next month telling you, “We’ve changed our mind,” and as the series is being completed: “We kinda thought it might not work out the way it looked earlier.”

It’s best to remember Goldman is in position to make money; not to provide information for its competitors.

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 22:06 | 1131055 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

Robo - the king of all flipfloppers. Makes me miss HarryWanger.. ok. maybe not..

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 23:02 | 1131196 reading
reading's picture

Did Harry finally hit the junk quota?

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 22:37 | 1131126 Hulk
Hulk's picture

They keep vibrating the traders like a huge sheet of sheet metal, constantly bucking them off, causing them to lose their grip on their positions

Excellent description....

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 20:55 | 1130886 SparkyvonBellagio
SparkyvonBellagio's picture


Sun, 04/03/2011 - 20:57 | 1130896 knukles
knukles's picture

"With the first quarter now behind us, we have downgraded our Q1 GDP estimate to 2.5% from 3.5"

If one of my analysts or portfolio managers had ever made a statement like that, they'd have been ridiculed by their peers before they got reamed out by me or my boss, etc.

It says;
Now that the news and events have passed, we can pass on our new and revised forecast of those past events.

Moreover, having sat through thousands of meetings, phone conversations, luncheons and whatnots listening to Zero Value Added tripe such as this, what really takes the cake is that somewhere down the line, absolutely no matter what transpires, they will look at you with a straight face and say that they did indeed correctly forecast the outcome.
Because they've forecasted, redacted, retracted, modified, review and reissued so many prognostications that every base has indeed been covered.

Hence, no value added.

But, needs realize that one must indeed make it look as if one has worked hard for the rewards.

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 21:04 | 1130912 random shots
random shots's picture

Sell side people are just glorified sales reps. Like used car salespeople or those pushy tards who sell cell phones in mall kiosks.

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 21:28 | 1130955 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"If one of my analysts or portfolio managers had ever made a statement like that, they'd have been ridiculed..."

LOL...we live in an age where important data points are revised downward 25-50% habitually, by those schooled in the statist art of Keynes slight of hand theory, in an "economy" where government transfer payments make up 30% of GDP, with a MSM that had their tattered pom poms replaced with funds from O-Care & "shovel ready" sumpin or other.

It's a brave new world where nothing is real except the debt.

Another list of those slurping at the trough;


Sun, 04/03/2011 - 21:01 | 1130897 max2205
max2205's picture

Now back to your regular programming schedule: BTFD!! Although I do thing this next new high could be the perfect bull trap suck in so be on your toes

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 21:09 | 1130923 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

they say "never catch a falling knife."  i say "ride that greasy balloon, bitchez!"

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 21:16 | 1130934 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Lets see....

QE3 is going to happen-Check.

Gasoline to $5-Check.

Food inflation-Check.

Democrats and Republicans continue the Spending Spree unabated-Check.


No pull back in Silver and Gold at all!

Todays Spike is Tomorrows Dip. Just buy and don't worry about how many FRN's you trade for it.

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 21:02 | 1130909 The Axe
The Axe's picture

But no revisions to major SP companies, like a much lower GNP doesn't effect MMM or GE or UTX   wtf

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 21:06 | 1130913 Hedge Jobs
Hedge Jobs's picture

here they go again, just softening the market up for QE3. It really is just getting too easy now. Just forget everything fundamental and trade the FED's reflation, deflation swings...until it all inevitably turns to shit . For anyone still grappling with these concepts i cant recomend the book "Dying of Money" by Jens O. Carsson enough. No link sorry

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 21:08 | 1130914 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

GDP is a joke

GDP is gay

I want to know the definative answer to QE

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 21:18 | 1130940 duncecap rack
duncecap rack's picture

Don't we all. I'm betting temporary pause. Then buy that chasm.

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 21:07 | 1130916 TemporalFlashback
TemporalFlashback's picture

"...the risks are skewed toward a somewhat earlier date for the first rate hike than our current forecast of 2013Q1."

That should read '2012Q1', right?

Mon, 04/04/2011 - 09:25 | 1131984 earnulf
earnulf's picture

Wells Fargo is predicting rates will start rising in 2012Q1.

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 21:06 | 1130918 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

I'm just gonna sit back and watch USD/JPY run up through 85 overnight.....the squeeze is coming on all the dollar shorts. Bill Gross will be trapped in his hedge.

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 21:08 | 1130921 B9K9
B9K9's picture

Well, I'm still in the "no more QE camp". Take a look around - see how light the traffic is? More than anything else, rising gas prices are having a direct life-style effect. How much higher can they go before people really begin to wake up & learn/realize that their lives are being fucked over by a small group of chosen, oops, 'preferred' constituents?

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 21:20 | 1130943 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

Traffic has been light, but then again, it has been spring break for various schools around me.

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 21:32 | 1130967 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"Take a look around - see how light the traffic is?"

Noted the same...been like that for a couple months around here.

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 22:06 | 1131051 captain_menace
captain_menace's picture

rising gas prices are having a direct life-style effect

You've completely missed the upside psychological effect!

I no longer feel so lame for being a homebody.  Surely I'm not the only one soaking up this intangible?

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 21:14 | 1130927 bania
bania's picture

just watching silver go through $38 late sunday night.  sweet dreams.

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 21:15 | 1130930 Misean
Misean's picture

It's gonna be entertaining, for at least a few minutes, when "Project 401K Bubble" implodes.

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 21:22 | 1130947 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

I remember everyone telling me that cashing out my 401k's and IRA's and paying the tax penalties was a big mistake. That was when Silver was $12 and Gold was $700. Now tell me who made the mistake?

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 21:48 | 1131004 Misean
Misean's picture

Yeah. I did similar. In 1999.

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 22:00 | 1131042 Jreb
Jreb's picture

Did the same with my CDN RRSP's. A close relative told me I was insane. That was back at $17.00 spot.


My only regret is that I didn't sell my house and use the equity to do the same.... my wife woulda taken half anyways...

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 21:17 | 1130935 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

They are just buying time to rebalance their bond portfolio. Inflation!

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 21:22 | 1130945 booboo
booboo's picture

"But it’s all a little messier than we would like"

"Jeeves, is that a family of four embedded in the grill of the Bentley? wash that mess off before the guest arrive"

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 21:28 | 1130960 philgramm
philgramm's picture

Thanks a lot.  Glenlivet all over keyboard

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 21:23 | 1130950 tickhound
tickhound's picture

Now that the plane has landed, we are obligated to inform you of an increased chance for a mid-air collision.  Thank you for flying Goldman air... And should you choose to fly with us again, it is important to note that we disagree with this story, and so do most experts.

Note: The subject matter discussed does not necessarily reflect our own opinion, unless proven true, in which case we warned you that flying can be messy.

Sun, 04/03/2011 - 22:04 | 1131052 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

That was a good one! (Goldman/Boeing) merger on the squawk!

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