Goldman: Case-Shiller Index Boosted From Now Expired Homebuyer Tax Credit

Tyler Durden's picture

Even as Yale's Shiller says he still has no idea where prices are headed, and that he is still worried about the possibility of a double dip recession (no disclosure on how he feels about the ongoing depression), here is Goldman to continue the cold water spillage process, saying that "Case-Shiller home price index rises more than expected in May, due to continued boost from homebuyer tax credit." Don't tell that to the headline reading algos which are now programmed to not only ignore all bad news, but to not read between any lines.

From Goldman:

Still Boosted by Tax Credit

BOTTOM LINE: Case-Shiller home price index rises more than expected in May, due to continued boost from homebuyer tax credit.

KEY NUMBERS:

Case-Shiller home price index +0.5% in May (mom, +4.6% yoy) vs. median forecast +0.2%.

MAIN POINTS:

1. The Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 metro areas beats expectations and rises by 0.47% on a seasonally adjusted basis in May. (The index rose by 1.27% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis) As the Case-Shiller index is based on three-month averages this boost is likely still driven by the now-expired homebuyer tax credit. On a year-to-year basis, the Case-Shiller index is now up 4.6%. (The seasonally-adjusted April number was revised up slightly from 0.44% to 0.61%.)

2. The regional distribution of the May rise shows the biggest month-to-month increases in Minneapolis, Atlanta and Los Angeles and the biggest declines in Charlotte, Detroit and Las Vegas. During the last 12 months house prices rose most strongly in San Francisco (+18.3%), San Diego (+12.4%) and Minneapolis (+11.6%).