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Goldman: Case-Shiller Index Boosted From Now Expired Homebuyer Tax Credit

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Even as Yale's Shiller says he still has no idea where prices are headed, and that he is still worried about the possibility of a double dip recession (no disclosure on how he feels about the ongoing depression), here is Goldman to continue the cold water spillage process, saying that "Case-Shiller home price index rises more than expected in May, due to continued boost from homebuyer tax credit." Don't tell that to the headline reading algos which are now programmed to not only ignore all bad news, but to not read between any lines.

From Goldman:

Still Boosted by Tax Credit

BOTTOM LINE: Case-Shiller home price index rises more than expected in May, due to continued boost from homebuyer tax credit.

KEY NUMBERS:

Case-Shiller home price index +0.5% in May (mom, +4.6% yoy) vs. median forecast +0.2%.

MAIN POINTS:

1. The Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 metro areas beats expectations and rises by 0.47% on a seasonally adjusted basis in May. (The index rose by 1.27% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis) As the Case-Shiller index is based on three-month averages this boost is likely still driven by the now-expired homebuyer tax credit. On a year-to-year basis, the Case-Shiller index is now up 4.6%. (The seasonally-adjusted April number was revised up slightly from 0.44% to 0.61%.)

2. The regional distribution of the May rise shows the biggest month-to-month increases in Minneapolis, Atlanta and Los Angeles and the biggest declines in Charlotte, Detroit and Las Vegas. During the last 12 months house prices rose most strongly in San Francisco (+18.3%), San Diego (+12.4%) and Minneapolis (+11.6%).

 

 


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Tue, 07/27/2010 - 09:52 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

Boosted, bitchez

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 11:34 | Link to Comment Eternal Student
Eternal Student's picture

If it hadn't, that would be news. It would mean that the Tax Credit was no longer drawing in people (who appear to be suckers, since interest rates have gone down, wiping out the gains from the $8,000 tax credit). The key thing to watch is what happens after the Credit has played out. I.e. can Housing stand on its own? More recent indicators cast doubt on that.

I also note that the rate of acceleration in some of the best performing areas did not increase as much as it did from March-April. SF and Portland, most notably. But LA is through the roof.

I wish Reggie would update his chart which shows that best. The current one is looking a little dated.

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 09:57 | Link to Comment huggy_in_london
huggy_in_london's picture

well yesterdays numbers were "strong" remember .... george orwell must be turning in his grave.....

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 10:02 | Link to Comment VK
VK's picture

He might well be turning in his grave but plenty of us bears are squirming in our seats as well at the sham known as the eCONomy.

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 10:00 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

*double post*

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 10:00 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

So it is a good thing that Americans are not owning and instead are renting at high rates?  Glad to know the only equity the middle class has will be based on the amount of Apple products they own.

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 10:00 | Link to Comment Chemba
Chemba's picture

but, but, but I thought Goldman Sachs was "part of the conspiratorial fraud"?  Why would Goldman Sachs point out that home prices are artificially boosted by incremental government debt proceeds given to dumb-ass home buyers?  I'm so confused.  Could it be that Goldman Sachs is not part of the fraud?  That it is merely a participant in the Federal Reserve / Congress' ponzi economy, along with everyone else (albeit a larger than average player)?

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 12:12 | Link to Comment traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

They need to make an occasional correct comment to keep the charade going. And better when on arcanely constructed statistical series that are considered 2nd or 3rd tier. 

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 10:06 | Link to Comment crzyhun
crzyhun's picture

Lies, damn lies and statistics....

And you still have to knotch the trees or you will get lost!

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 10:07 | Link to Comment jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

It's about time for the 2 weeks straight of DOW/S&P losses to resume.  Market looking very weak up at 1120.

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 10:15 | Link to Comment old_turk
old_turk's picture

TPTB needs more air in the market so that when the dive occurs ... the Dow drops to 10,000.  Remember that they fight to hold 10,000 until it exhaustion then the real fun begins.

Come to think of it, 25 bps to the positive is beginning to look damn good.

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 10:24 | Link to Comment Mercury
Mercury's picture

Headline-reading algos.  What a joke.  No chance of that being gamed is there?

First Operation Mayhem should be for ZH to get into the press-releases space.

Oohh-heh-heh.

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 10:59 | Link to Comment AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

I saw these scum bags (The Squid) launching Derivatives Clearing Services.. I'm sure they can be trusted to have their tentacle on the pulse of a good share of order flow and won't use the data they collect from this business in any way shape or form for their own benefit....

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 12:22 | Link to Comment MrTrader
MrTrader's picture

Headline-reading algos ? Hum, lately I was contacted by this company. I think they provide this sort of service ( hehehehe ):

 

http://www.ntkn.com/

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 13:29 | Link to Comment spartan117
spartan117's picture

Up 1.4% from last May, the bottom of the markets, and the MSM are celebrating?  Wake me up when we are up 15% YoY.

Tue, 07/27/2010 - 16:04 | Link to Comment ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

I just swapped emails with a newspaper writer and they said that the number of home sales that are associated with the price change are not released.

So total sales volume could be down drastically while the average sales price rices.  What would that indicate to you?

And how could you get there?  Fannie and Freddie decide that loans for homes $75k are delayed for awhile, for starters.

Total dollars spent on real estate would be a much better indicator.

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