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Goldman Causes Selloff In Commodities: Closes Top 5 Trade Of 2011: Long Crude, Copper, Cotton And Platinum (CCCP)

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Wondering what just took the carpet from under the commodity complex? Heeeeeere's Goldman.

We are closing our CCCP basket trade, first recommended on December 1, 2010, for a gain of roughly 25% against our 28% target. This recommendation was premised on our belief that Crude Oil, Copper, Cotton/Soybeans and Platinum remain the key structurally supply-constrained markets. On a 12-month horizon we believe the CCCP basket still has upside potential, but the unrest in the Middle-East and North Africa region, and the potential for further supply shocks pushed the basket up significantly in a short period and our Commodity Research team believes that in the near term the risk/reward no longer favours being long the basket and consequently, we are closing the recommendation with good potential gains. While crude oil, cotton and copper prices have substantially exceeded our targets, platinum and soybean prices have lagged.

In the near-term we see crude oil price risk as becoming more symmetric. While the potential for further contagion risk in the Middle east remains elevated, there are now nascent signs of oil demand destruction in the United States (see April 5 Energy Weekly), but also record speculative length in the oil market, elections in Nigeria and a potential cease-fire in Libya that has begun to offset some of the upside risk, leaving us more neutral at current levels. As the accompanying note from our Commodity team points out Copper and Platinum face headwinds too in the near-term while we see upside in Soybeans (See “Target in sight, closing CCCP trade”, April 11, 2011).

And some more:

Risk-reward no longer favours being long CCCP

Although we believe that on a 12-month horizon the CCCP basket still has upside potential, in the near term risk-reward no longer favours being long the basket and we are recommending closing the position for a 25% return versus a 28% target. While crude oil, cotton and copper prices have substantially exceeded our targets, platinum and soybean prices  have lagged.

Near-term crude oil price risk is becoming more symmetric

Although potential contagion risk in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) remains elevated and has pushed prices above $125/bbl, at these price levels the risks are becoming more symmetric, which shifts the risk/reward of being long oil. Not only are there now nascent signs of oil demand destruction in the United States (see April 5 Energy Weekly), but also record speculative length in the oil market, elections in Nigeria and a potential cease-fire in Libya that has begun to offset some of the upside risk owing to contagion, leaving price risk more neutral at current levels.

N-T upside in soybeans, but copper and platinum face headwinds

We still see significant upside in soybean prices, but believe that copper and platinum will face near-term headwinds as higher oil prices potentially translate into a negative demand shock for the metals and as these commodities are exposed to supply chain problems resulting from the earthquakes in Japan. This is particularly the case for platinum given its large exposure to global automobile production. Copper also remains vulnerable to slowing observed demand as high prices and tight credit motivate tight inventory management from key consumer China, which tempers the inventory draw we had expected and the risk of price spikes. As result, we are also closing our long copper and platinum trades, but even in these commodities the structural supply-side story remains intact, and we would look for new entry points to establish new longs.

 

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Mon, 04/11/2011 - 11:30 | 1157870 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Commodities are efficiently priced based on supply/demand equilbrium.

 

/snark

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 11:34 | 1157887 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

BLANKFEIN is GOD

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 11:42 | 1157900 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Paul Krugman, I had the privilege of reading your analysis that essentially stated that The Bernank could print and drop more money to offset ridiculously high and speculative-fever level commodity prices.

It was in the same piece where you wrote that the U.S. could print the amount of money necessary to pay its national debt off.

Thanks for your Keynesiastic brilliance, Paul. You make economics fun and exciting.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:10 | 1157981 SRSrocco
SRSrocco's picture

The day after Zero Hedge posts that Bill Gross of PIMCO is short US DEBT and has $73 billion in cash, the Goldman Sack announces they are going to end the CCCP commodity Trade.

Makes perfect sense if you think about it.  Bill Gross thinks inflation is getting ready to head towards the moon, so Blankfind believes its time to UNLOAD real wealth.

You can't make this stuff up...it's hollywood material right out of Universal Studios.

 

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:14 | 1158014 Weisbrot
Weisbrot's picture

information, gamesmanship, disinformation, and headfakes. looks like the real fun ia about to begin. get the barf bags ready.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:48 | 1158123 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

**snicker - nudge nudge **

 

like fundamentals matter....

 

BTFDYFI

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:59 | 1158160 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

The whole charade continues on ambiguity...

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:18 | 1158018 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

GoldmanSachs is a bank, dammit. They are not a hedge fund. They are not a chinese insurance company or a chinese car company. They make loans to small businesses. They have tellers and atm machines. They don't trade for their own account.

http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2011/04/11/193951.htm

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:44 | 1158110 pgarner
pgarner's picture

+10

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 14:47 | 1158500 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

That in a nutshell is the whole problem. Banks need to return to being ONLY banks and deal with the risk they create or take on.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:41 | 1158087 Thomas
Thomas's picture

nascent signs of oil demand destruction in the US? Sounds like tankage to me.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:33 | 1159415 55mph
55mph's picture

 

 

Blankfein is the buyer.  proprietary trading is not dead.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 11:48 | 1157933 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Doing Gods work inflating prices of things we need

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:52 | 1158143 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Then how come "God" sounds just like Morey Amsterdam??

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 13:16 | 1158234 avonaltendorf
avonaltendorf's picture

+10 laughed out loud

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 14:04 | 1158390 Jan Modaal
Jan Modaal's picture

And just like God he can create value out of nothing

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:27 | 1159787 rocker
rocker's picture

GS created the financial crisis, didn't they?  Look at all the value they got for that. Downside $$$ Upside $$$

                                                                                                                   Moral Hazard  $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 11:59 | 1157967 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Supply demand? Lol.... Speculation and cheap money. Watch them try and short these only to get squeezed out and drive it to nosebleed levels

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 11:34 | 1157880 Pepe
Pepe's picture

The great puppeteer

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 11:35 | 1157881 The Count
The Count's picture

Since about 5 years I am using all 'recommendations' by the big investment banks as asswipe. 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:21 | 1158035 Weisbrot
Weisbrot's picture

be careful, some time soon they may be accurate.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 13:26 | 1158280 The Count
The Count's picture

Sure, its like Hitler did some things right too.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 11:35 | 1157889 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

right. and they announced it publicly. who believes GS - anyone

obama is also interested in cutting the deficit

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:22 | 1158040 Weisbrot
Weisbrot's picture

if GS publishes BS then how long until they follow the BS of 2008 in to the history books?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 11:44 | 1157924 dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

How the hell do you close out "potential gains". Wouldn't they be actual?

our Commodity Research team believes that in the near term the risk/reward no longer favours being long the basket

In other words, "Our algos are at a level that they are throwing numeric exceptions(Infinity) due to all the money we made on this carry trade and we must now sell at the peak to all the suckers in mismanaged 401(k)s to book our profits. Once the numbers get back to better levels and our algos can handle it, we will return. All Your Base Are Belong To Us" -- Leroy Jenkins

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 11:45 | 1157926 LibertyIn2010
LibertyIn2010's picture

Maybe just a coincidence, but after viewing this article I went over to The Burning Platform and found this quote just posted -

“Not a word from their mouth can be trusted; their heart is filled with destruction. Their throat is an open grave, and with their tongue they speak deceit. Show their guilt, O Lord. Let their scheming be their downfall. Banish them for their crimes and transgressions, for they have rebelled against you. But let all who take refuge in you be glad.”

Psalm 5:9-11

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 11:51 | 1157941 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So in reality GS wanted a dip to buy.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 13:17 | 1158246 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

Wow!  Did the author of that piece know these guys?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 13:48 | 1158342 r101958
r101958's picture

They did it because they are more concerned, at this point, with control of the masses than with excessive profits.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 13:54 | 1158352 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

opened a Gideon to a random page after a tryst in a hotel once and it said "She openeth her mouth with wisdom and in her tongue is the law of kindness"

I love that damn book

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 11:46 | 1157929 defn8Dog
defn8Dog's picture

How do they do it at GS? Poetry in motion!  Check out today's GS sellside "conviction buy" on KKR.  Someone got a good price.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 11:49 | 1157942 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

In other words.  We think the dollar will sink further and these items will go higher.  So we want to buy them as cheap as possible so we are telling everybody to sell.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 11:53 | 1157950 unky
unky's picture

but copper is supposely be owned by jp morgan up to 90%

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:01 | 1157969 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

DING DING DING DING DING

We have a winner.  You prize is a 30 year US Treasury Bond!  Congrats.

The base metals, particularly copper and nickel, have a long way to go in this bull run.

Just wait until most folks get "priced out" of silver and start eyeing copper and nickel as stores of wealth and eventually, once again, money.

I am Chumbawamba.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:20 | 1158016 Mark McGoldrick
Mark McGoldrick's picture

Financial advice from a deadbeat who can't pay his own bills. 

Priceless. 

Chumbawamba = The Lenny Dykstra of ZeroHedge.  

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:22 | 1158031 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Rotflmfao!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:29 | 1158057 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Guess what I bought with all that credit that the bankers were all too happy to throw at me when they thought the ponzi scheme would go on forever?  Silver.

Guess what I'm going to buy when the dollar dies?  You.

I will stuff your gaping vagina hole with bars of silver to disinfect it.

I am Chumbawamba.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:58 | 1158144 Mark McGoldrick
Mark McGoldrick's picture

*LOL*

Maxed out the credit cards with silver a few years ago? Yeah, right.  How convenient! 

The mathematical symbol relating liars to deadbeats is an "=" sign.

Your lack of financial acumen is more than replenished with a penchant for gross vulgarity, which I find common among the wing-nut libertarian goons around here.  

 

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 13:03 | 1158197 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Isn't a deadbeat someone who is a drag on society?

What do you call someone who's only function is to harangue productive members of society?  And to think you get compensation for that.  Where can I sign up?  Does Cass need any recruits for his loser brigades?

Don't call me a deadbeat, please call me a beatdead, because that's what I'm going to be doing to guys like you when you come looking for a handout from guys like me who have silver.

I am Chumbawamba.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 13:43 | 1158325 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

When was your start date for the Center for American Progress?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:49 | 1158120 Another Texan
Another Texan's picture

Lenny Dykstra - awesome!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 13:08 | 1158213 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

I admit I had to Google that one because I'm not a baseball fag.  After reading a little bit, I still don't get the reference, because I'm not a baseball fag.

Who the fuck likes baseball?  Fags.

I do, however, like maxing out my credit cards by buying silver with them.

I am Chumbawamba.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 20:06 | 1159729 SamuelMaverick
SamuelMaverick's picture

Yeah, banks, insurance companies, and auto manufacturers union thugs can fucking default on everything, get billions in bailouts, wipe out the shareholders and bondholders life savings. Whoever has a problem with Chumba can bend over and kiss their own ass.  Jerks.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:56 | 1158150 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Strategic default bitch ... what's good for the corporation is good for the citizen.   After all, legally they are the same.

Chumba's a dick but he's no fool.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 11:50 | 1157946 augie
augie's picture

So Gross and Goldman both have inside info that QE3 isn't going to happen. Great. I just got long silver at 39.80 and now am going to get smoked like i did trying to short the /es

My frustration is not with the situation, its more with my own nievety that I could be "ahead" of the market. Hah boy was i wrong.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:09 | 1157999 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

The end of qe2 without an immediate qe3 has been well telegraphed in advance.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:21 | 1158034 Muir
Muir's picture

Shhhh.... no one want's to listen to this.

"Ahhh, just explain to me how this is bullish for silver"

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 13:42 | 1158313 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

I went all cash from commodities with this scenario in mind. I think the odds of a pause between QE2 and QE3 are pretty high. I think everything gets hammered in that scenario to form a lower base for the next round of QE.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:11 | 1158000 The Profit Prophet
The Profit Prophet's picture

Nice try Shill.....PMs are golden (pardon the pun).

No worries.....Hedgers will survive the upcoming JP/Goldman bear raid on PMs......there's milllions of us just waiting to BTFD!!!!

T.E.I.N. everyone!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 11:52 | 1157951 TexDenim
TexDenim's picture

It must be nice to be able to decide over breakfast which way the markets are going to go. But is it legal?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:09 | 1158002 SRV - ES339
SRV - ES339's picture

But is it legal?

rotflmfao...

rotflmfao...

rotflmfao...

rotflmfao...

rotflmfao...

rotflmfao...

rotflmfao...

rotflmfao...

rotflmfao...

rotflmfao...

rotflmfao...

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 11:54 | 1157953 unky
unky's picture

so how about platinum, is it an alternative to silver? because  silver has risen so much recently it might be wise to acquire some platinum now?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 13:19 | 1158253 avonaltendorf
avonaltendorf's picture

Expecting a big upswing in catalytic converter demand?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 13:46 | 1158335 augie
augie's picture

Not catalytic converters, he's front running the platinum grillz' market.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 14:05 | 1158379 Smu the Wonderhorse
Smu the Wonderhorse's picture

IMO, silver and palladium have the strongest fundamentals.  I trade SIVR, AGQ and PALL and own physical.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:24 | 1158941 savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

check a chart going back to end of 2008, plat  has had a great run already,  you; and I, missed it.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 11:56 | 1157961 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

Don't forget, the the banksters work for the fed, no scratch that, they are both symbiotic. Right now the banksters have made large profits on commodity plays but risk losses on T-Bills and perhaps equities. The Fed needs commodities to take a break desperately. So you pick up the phone..hello Lloyd it's Ben, I didn't see you at the club this weekend. Listen, lets do a deal.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 14:20 | 1158427 r101958
r101958's picture

Yep, exactly! Just like I stated above.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:01 | 1157971 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

"After further review, we do not want to draw attention to ourselves or the commodoties markets any longer; so instead please select from one of our Muni bond, US Dollar, or NASDAQ offerings."  Thank You  - Squid Managment

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:03 | 1157976 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Yep, no follow through on gold after its breakout.

So typical.

Any and all breakouts are snuffed out by the Cartel.

If gold were a "retail name" like Tractor Supply, it would have taken off and never looked back, since these stocks are Fed-sponsored and TPTB-supported.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:12 | 1158007 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

How do I post images like RoboTrader?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:26 | 1158055 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

i told you guys that i shorted TZOO last week at 80. i rang the cash register today and covered at 72.55; it might go lower but i don't care. AAPL has still been weak and that's not good for the bulls.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 13:30 | 1158284 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

Have to be a contributor of content to the site.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 17:39 | 1159185 akak
akak's picture

Apparently, however, contributing valuable content is purely optional --- an option which in Robot's case is rarely exercised.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 13:40 | 1158309 Sedaeng
Sedaeng's picture
Source code is this, but thread is not 'accepting' the format :/
<img src="http://www.kitco.com/images/live/silver.gif" width="579" height="335" />
Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:04 | 1157978 FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

Goldman is causing nothing. If curde was ready to go up today it would, regardless of what Goldman says.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:06 | 1157985 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

How will this affect silver?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:25 | 1158051 Muir
Muir's picture

-

All news, everywhere, of whatever type, in whatever solar system in whichever inter-dimensional Universe you reside in, is excellent news for silver and you should immediately add to your long position.

-

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:04 | 1157987 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Heh.

CCCP   transliteration of Cyrillic USSR, equivalent to Union of Soviet Socialist Republics in English

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 13:22 | 1158262 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

Yes!  When I saw "Goldman is closing down the CCCP" I thought -- "Dang!  I didn't know they still owned that!"

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:12 | 1158004 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

There has been a lot of media buzz trying to get retail short commodities and PMs this weekend.  Now Goldman pretty much confirms it for me.  The dollar is about to get toasted.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:31 | 1158066 Muir
Muir's picture

and the logic being... don't keep us in suspense.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:13 | 1158009 supernickel
supernickel's picture

Well, I predicted all that yesterday.

Thanks to my Cramer Indicator and because I was listening to Sandeep Shah of Sampriti Capital, as everyone should.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/premarket-summary-inflationary-hysteria...

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:54 | 1158152 supernickel
supernickel's picture

Mine move just like yours.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 13:27 | 1158268 GoingLoonie
GoingLoonie's picture

No they do not!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 21:23 | 1159959 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Prove it.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:15 | 1158015 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Darn.

I was afraid we had seen the peak in oil. I was playing it safe in vde unleveraged. 118 may have been the peak. Im getting out ar 116 plus change and going to wait for deflation hysteria before i go long again on the inflation-reflation trade

I believe we are going to cycle thru at least one inflation hysteria and one deflation hysteria before this is over.

I think we may be close to the end of the first inflation hysteria.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:48 | 1158116 samsara
samsara's picture

I was afraid we had seen the peak in oil

You not seen the 'Peak in Oil'

But you have seen 'Peak Oil'

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 14:23 | 1158449 r101958
r101958's picture

Agreed. The boys are quite worried about treasuries and their own behinds. Hence the constant talk early this morning about the European debt crisis (talk about the pot calling the kettle) and how Spain might be the next to go. This all to shore up treasuries. Now with this to try to take down the commodities a bit. I've noticed that whenever the treasuries get a little weak the MSM starts talking about the debt crisis in Europe. Notice how hardly anybody talks about Greece anymore? What a facade.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:16 | 1158019 Cone of Uncertainty
Cone of Uncertainty's picture

I would skull fuck a bar of gold.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:19 | 1158023 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

so the fait accompli, in Obama's reelection campaign. Goldman has played their hand, they are going to work with the campaign to reelect the President, by forcing commodity prices lower, and inflation, or at least the perception of inflation in food and energy, which is so determental to the status quo presidency.

remember they rejiggered their commodity index, the one traders follow, in 2006, when the Democrats were threatening to take back both houses and turn the GOP tide. Gas prices went plummeting, and the people elected Democrats (that time). Goldman doesn't  care, because there is only one political party as far as they are concerned. And they are certainly worried about populist rumblings, the eternal backstop, that the messenger of change gave them, change? How about we give you FDIC protection? Even though you don't have any retail customers.

first salvo of the campaign season, short gasoline bitchez. once the Chicago gangsters are given four more years to do Goldman's work, without accountability, they can rest easy that every season will be bonus season. And if those nasty populists make too much noise, send out a few of your billionaire friends to buy the message. It's going to be a long tough sled from here on, ducklings.

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:32 | 1158071 supernickel
supernickel's picture

Looks like you are over-cerebralizing. But hey, why not create your own blog. www.blogger.com, it's free.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:43 | 1158100 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

you have to wonder where the power is, (it sure ain't with the people), thanks for the link

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:52 | 1158140 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

I'd start with where top wealth is concentrated. Even above the CXO levels.

In our capitalistic society, money will buy almost everything including power.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 14:19 | 1158431 bothsidesnow
bothsidesnow's picture

Who cares what Goldman says. China has 2+ trillion in FRN's they would like to use before they are useless. China will continue to buy commoditiies - they have to they have too many people. Why would China buy Treasury debt with there trade imbalance FRN's.

Obama can't control China no one can.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 19:38 | 1159630 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

someone said that they thought China would go the way of Libya, although the governments have no similarity. China is a number of different ethnic groups, held together by a central (authoritarian) government. its not possible for them to handle regional powersharing, without dissolving into chaos. China can't control China. They will be lucky to achieve a Soviet style downsizing in the event their central government collapses. At some point in time the US will issue a new currency, with time limits and conversion rates determined by our central bank. Chaos, or the appearance of such in China, would be a excellent opportunity to shaft the holders of those FRN's.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:17 | 1158024 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

Goldman Sach-of-shite would like to thank America for hosting the bankers feast 1900-2000.

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:31 | 1158063 Watts_D_Matter
Watts_D_Matter's picture

Goldman Sacks the market...

Blankenfeld = The Dingleberry of Truth!

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Dingleberry%20of%20Truth

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:48 | 1158125 gianakt
gianakt's picture

Gold just broke its hourly trend line and it is an agressive sell know, GS has been tipped off by the fed that they are going to tighten.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 14:22 | 1158446 bothsidesnow
bothsidesnow's picture

I sold my paper spot silver and gold contracts Friday before the close. Waiting to buy them back after the dust settles and the reality of 7 billion people competing for resources returns.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:52 | 1158132 gianakt
gianakt's picture

Sell, Sell, Sell!!!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 13:10 | 1158215 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Is that picture from Cabo San Lucas?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 14:05 | 1158391 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

no, it's Lloyd's island lair

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:41 | 1159013 velobabe
velobabe's picture

i believe so, right at the tip, above that popular beach.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:58 | 1158159 dogismyth
dogismyth's picture

I hate Goldman Sachs.  More than you can imagine.

Well, I sold out of my DTO trade on Friday at the close not knowing what would happen today.  Of course, every fucking decision I make is turned on me, and of course, I should have known better.

I would love to be stuck on a desert island with Blankfiend.  I'd hunt his ass down like a wild boar, and have a good roast waiting for may naked native island girl.

I hope someone goes ballistic crazy on your ass Goldman.  I for one am sick of this crap, and how it is sanctioned by everyone from the SEC to traders day after day.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 13:37 | 1158302 VisualCSharp
VisualCSharp's picture

Stop playing the game and enjoy your time on Earth. Wealth accumulation is not the only way to happiness.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 13:59 | 1158365 cxl9
cxl9's picture

But some accumulation of wealth is necessary in order to enjoy life and provide a decent quality of life for a family. Unless you prefer to see your children hungry, poorly-clothed, educated in bad schools, and without decent medical care. Jackoff.

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 14:08 | 1158397 dogismyth
dogismyth's picture

thank you for reminding me of that.  You are so right.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 18:07 | 1159308 PrDtR
PrDtR's picture

for some REAL TRUTH.. check out  www.youtube.com/amgineco  ..subscribe! THAT site will really wake you up!!

Get saved today!

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 12:59 | 1158174 The Fonz
The Fonz's picture

Meh, those companies make money by fooling people with complexity. Their GOAL is to decieve and they make a lot of money at it. If you try to guess at what is good info vs. bad info they'll beat you at the game. I can't sort out their lies, so I consider them all to be lies, as they are not a required source for sucessful investing.  

The most noteworthy actions of these entities is where their money is, and why it is there.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 13:03 | 1158183 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

i wrote here that oil will drop by mid april from various machinations i outlined before. glad i got into my double-short oil position on Friday ;)

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 13:21 | 1158260 dogismyth
dogismyth's picture

always nice to hear after-the-fact.  Keep us informed...OK?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 14:48 | 1158504 greased up deaf guy
greased up deaf guy's picture

i tend to agree and usually call bullsh*t unless someone posts their trades in real-time, like maybe within an hour. that's just me though.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 13:15 | 1158223 ivars
ivars's picture

It seems silver is crashing right now, so 41,98 USD was perhaps its highest point (during coming year): if FED/US government is bailing out JPM by buying (closing)  its shorts, its the endgame for this cornering.

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&start=100#p31692

42 was lowest crash value i expected. But it could be the one. Timing is as predicted, early April.

The graph here draws generic behaviour of silver into and after this crash, but the value 45 just lies within the 42-50 range I expected.

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/download/file.php?id=2673

There is  still time to sell if one is long as margins will increase dramatically ( low point 20-28 usd).

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 13:27 | 1158283 ak_khanna
ak_khanna's picture

The market operators ie banksters are driving the USD index down and pumping up everything else. This process will continue till there are no long positions left in the USD index and no short positions in any of the commodities, stock or currencies other than the USD.

The operators are then likely to take the long position on the dollar and short position on everything else. They would then use their money power to move the markets in the direction which would get them the maximum profit while screwing all other traders / hedge funds / investors.


The stock, commodity and currency exchanges have been reduced to gambling dens whereby the more powerful traders with deep pockets move the markets to maximize their own profits at the expense of the remaining not so powerful players. The big boys have enormous money power to move the markets in the direction which results in maximum profits for themselves. They effectively use the media to lure the other players in the market to a position where they would incur maximum loss.

The markets will fall only when the banksters have eliminated all the short positions and only they themselves have positioned themselves to profit when the market falls

OR

When an unexpected world event catches the banksters with their pants down and the softwares they use to rig the markets go berserk beyond their control.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24581.html


Mon, 04/11/2011 - 13:47 | 1158339 ivars
ivars's picture

Oil is moving down from its second peak, at early april , as predicted at this February 6th chart:

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a#p30486

The level it will reach (Brent) should be around 105-110USD.

That will happen in early May. After that, another increase and peak , reaching Brent 140-150 USD  in early July. By that moment , it should become clear to stock market that the USA is heading for another recession in q1 2012, hence DJIA will correct sharply as oil will continue to grow in a seesaw pattern, bringing DJIA and the USA growth down with it.

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/download/file.php?id=2608

 

 

 

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 13:50 | 1158351 hoyasrule
hoyasrule's picture

commodity bulls and inflationists should be very wary of the implications of this video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPILhiTJv7E

 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 14:10 | 1158405 gkm
gkm's picture

You may or may not be aware that this, while an interesting video, is pretty old news.  Also, inflation and hyperinflation are not at all the same thing.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 14:18 | 1158423 Simple Simon
Simple Simon's picture

Nice to see Goldman got one right here - the pain now is those who jumped in on Thursday night - where to from here - crude $3.50 off the high is a decent move - we need  some more selling to sway out the momentum specs - any thoughts?

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 15:01 | 1158542 dogismyth
dogismyth's picture

well its pretty evident...don't ya think.  Beginning of earning season, and they want to channel some moneys into the weaker sectors (think financials) and the broader markets... so they bring down commodities.  Its obviously a supply/demand algo that works by turning markets on a dime and key predetermined dates. 

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 14:23 | 1158436 ivars
ivars's picture

Japan may rise nuke accident severity level to higest 7 from 5!

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=66&t=2657&p=31718#p31718

Took them some time to count the radioactive releases.

Mon, 04/11/2011 - 16:10 | 1158882 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Even if QE is to be ended, it will only be a short hiatus.  Feel free to trade it.  I'm taking the longer view.  QE will continue after the carnage.

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