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Goldman On Claims: Surge In People Receiving Extended Or Emergency Benefits Offsets Positive News
From Goldman's Jan Hatzius, who suddenly sees the nuclear bomb in every silver lining
Better News on Initial Claims, But Still Lots of People Collecting Benefits
BOTTOM LINE: Initial claims fall, adding support to claims that distortions could have been a factor in the preceding increases. Although continuing claims also decline, the number of recipients of extended/emergency benefits posts another large increase, pushing total claimants closer to the highs reached earlier this year.
US-MAP
Initial claims +2 (2, +1)
Continuing claims 0 (1, 0), including a -1 judgmental adjustment for ongoing increases in extended/emergency beneficiaries.
KEY NUMBERS:
Initial claims -31k to 473k in week ended Aug 21 vs. median forecast 490k.
Continuing claims -62k to 4.456 million in week ended Aug 14 vs. median forecast 4.495 million.
MAIN POINTS:
1. Initial claims fell more than expected last week, back to the upper end of the range that had prevailed during most of the year before the latest run-up. Although we had discounted assertions that special factors such the termination of temporary Census workers and the renewal of emergency benefits caused this increase, last week's decline adds some support to that case.
2. Continuing claims also fell - by 62k - to level below what most forecasters expected. However, the number of people receiving extended or emergency benefits rose another 301k. In our view, this offsets the positive surprise from this part of the report, leading to the judgmental adjustment on the US-MAP reading for this part of the report.
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id dont what the hell is going on at the moment but GS seem to be making some decent observations lately.
No problem! Louis XVI and Marie Antoinette are on another vacation eating lobster.
Excerpt: So how much lobster are you having during these precarious economic times? What? You’ve had to cut back? No longer ordering it stuffed with crab meat, at least?
Well, if you happen to be the President of the United States or the First Lady, your lobster consumption is continuing at a robust pace.
Yes, the economy is still getting battered. And last night, so was President Obama’s lobster.
Uhhh, but lobster is cheap up there. It's like crawfish in Louisiana or Poi in Hawaii.
Lobster is expensive elsewhere because it has to be flown there, or raised in a tank. This is not the case in MV.
If you are going to criticize the President's behavior, target the things that he is doing wrong, like interrupting business whereever he goes, and spending trillions with nothing to show for it. Eating a local specialty while on vacation is not a big deal (though the fact this is his 9284529384th vacation since taking office is also a problem).
I was under the impression that temporary (part-time) workers cannot apply for weekly benefits..this guy claims otherwise..does anyone know anything about this?
whats going on with GS they must have stopped drinking the Kool aid
The prop desk wants a bigger bonus, so try to make it more negative to lure in shorties to squeeze them til their heads pop.
Maybe its an orchestrated "good cop/bad cop" routine. Like in third grade? "I'll pretend to be mad at you, and we can get the sheeple to take sides."
But the inital claims number was better than expected, so rally on.
This kind of gobbledygook analysis is what you get when the thing your analyzing has become so confused and abstracted to make it completely worthless.
BLS data (July):
2005 work force 149 573 (thousands) employed 142 076
2010 work force 153 560 employed 138 960
If you take population growth of 1% from 2005 to 2010 real data for 2010 should be something like
work force 157 202 employed 138 860
so real unemployment is 11.6%, now we have 26 686 of part timers (in both categories: for economic and non-economic reasons).
All that means that we have 18 242 unemployed and 26 686 under employed, all together gives us 44 928 people in trouble, only 40 800 people get food stamps so we have some up side in this number.
looks like another no volume melt-up in the mail.
you need to remember that lobsters are bottom feeders. also appears that continuing claims-collectors are beginning to top out. truth is that the bond market is about 5-6X the size of the stock market and as those assets are sold in favor of growth, that's the upside you're going to see in Mr. Market. thats a lot of buying power.
Its a burning building and most of the people are trying to exit out the "Bond" door, not anxiously waiting to buy stocks. Historical explanations don't work when the building is on fire.
numbers are cooked. they are moving claims between euc and ic, really the number for this week is well above 500k
just take a look:
07/29 - 3,253,636 euc
08/05 - 3,314,629 euc
08/12 - 4,493,351 euc
08/19 - 4,753,456 euc
08/26 - 4,899,646 euc
What is euc and ic?
emergency and initials
just take a look at what is going on with initials -> emergency -> extended
headline # is just (sort of a) lipstick
And how many folks are on SNAP, again?
Yeah, welcome to the recovery alright. This is lack of real economic activity is going result in one vicious smackdown ... it's just a question of when.
And no, I don't know. I suspect that the FRB will be able to pull the financial system's cajones out of the fire come October but they will be hamstrung going into 2Q of 2011.
Maybe the Mayans were right.
40.8 Million as of May (most recent data). June's numbers will be released in Sept. Though I wonder where the money will come from since money has been taken away to pay for the 'jobs' bill.
...Offsets "positive news"....
What "positive news"???
Don't forget that today is option expiry in gold and silver.
And not a dip in sight. If there isn't a spike down today, things are going to get a bit wild in those markets over the next few months.
Is it me or is the DJIA bouncing up and down like a super ball?
It's going to go up today and you'll god damned like it. The optimism feeding tube is going to be ramrodded down everyone's neck.
Judging by UST stocks should be down now. I know, I know, we are talking about US "market".
It requires the dramamine/coffee/xanax cocktail to trade these days.
Yeah, it's pretty funny watching Yahoo Finance try to keep their headline up to date with where the market is at. Fifteen minutes ago the Dow was down and their headline said "Markets Up on Unemployment Numbers". Now the Dow is back up and their headline says "Stocks Wobble After Drop in Jobless Claims".
Yahoo Finance's story should read:
Markets Manipulated Higher After Release of Fudged Statistics
New York (AP) - Government backed investment banks gamed financial markets higher Thursday morning after the release of a fresh batch of manipulated unemployment statistics by the US Dept of Labor. The latest figure of 473K initial unemployment claims for the week is really totally meaningless, compared to last week's number which was revised upward so that this week's number would look better in comparison.
It's like a new welfare program for people who used to have jobs. I think it's important and necessary to help people out, but when does receiving an unemployment check morph from a life saver to a life style?
I don't think most unemployed are unemployed by their own doing and I highly doubt they are living any kind of 'lifestyle' on the pittance they are provided. It's barely enough to even feed yourself hardtack and milk.
The ongoing debate over whether people are 'juicing' the system is ridiculous. There are no jobs to be had.
There might be 5% of the total roll that is comfortable living the life of a dog, but I highly doubt it's something people are willfully opting for.
I agree that most people on UE are scraping by, if that. However, here's an example of someone sucking off the system...
My in-laws spend everything they get(thankfully my wife is not like her family in any way) and my brother-in-law(23 yrs. old) is also a spender. He decided not to re-up and take his military bonus, so he's now on Week 36 of funemployment after coming out of the military without any money. He lives at home with mommy and daddy and is receiving $1350 a month on UE.
When UE benefits were held up, everyone went into a panic because that meant the household had to get by on the 'pittance' of $3400 a month from the father's disability check. The son heard about a part-time job at Menard's, but never went to apply because he had faith UE would kick back into gear. After a few weeks, he got a back UE check of $1800.
After it was made easier in mid-July to apply for PTSD benefits, my BIL and his parents decided to try out for those bennies too. This is in process. He's been out of the military for eight months and is 5'9", 270 lbs and woefully out of shape.
This is an example of someone sucking off the system...I have a feeling there are a lot of other people behaving similarly. We need to be honest with ourselves that we have people of all classes sucking off the system and work to minimize it.
I'm sure there are some shining examples. No doubt about that.
But, my employer has laid off 300+ workers (blue and white collar) during the automotive meltdown. We've been able to call back some due to the mild 'rebound'. To my knowledge, everyone of them has immediately returned. I know that many of them call weekly for updates as to if and when they *might* have a hope to come back.
I guess it just depends, but my personal opinion is that the vast majority would opt for wages and benefits if given the opportunity to work. I do agree, however, that even with jobs falling from the sky that there is a certain percentage that is either totally unemployable or unwilling to be employed. But, that will always be in every society and every economic circumstance.
I, personally speaking, have some empathy on the vast majority of UE recipients.
Judging by EUR/USD action, this report is horrible. But Tim & Ben Ponzi Capital is on the buying spree.
Goldman is obviously short equity options and needs a damn lesson in phucking around ! Here comes one of your 100+ million losing days, Liberty occupants..
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-26/business-spending-drop-in-u-s-m...
So it looks like JPM is expecting ugly UE numbers for the month of August.
they act like this number is good because it's less than the prior week when in reality it's horrible that we're still seeing this quantity of initial jobless figures.
don't u get it...gs trying to get everyone to SELL to them, they need inventory. so they will spin everything negative as they accumulate
Santelli just pointed this out... a bad omen. Folks listen to him so this will be news worth reporting widely.
14.599 million total unemployed (July '10 BLS stats)
4.456 million on regular benefits (up to 26 wks) -62 thousand from previous (US D.O.L. today)
5.84 million on extended benefits (27-99 wks) +302 thousand from previous (US D.O.L. today).
6.572 million total unemployed over 27 weeks (July '10 BLS stats)
So there are at least 732 thousand officially unemployed over 27 weeks and no longer getting benefits. These are people still taking the time to register as unemployed each week, even though they are no longer getting benefits. This doesn't include people no longer registering each week since it is of no benefit to them. These people no longer are counted either as unemployed and are not included in the total labor pool, so as they drop out this LOWERS the unemployment rate.
The 14.599 million official total unemployed apparently DOES include a total of about 3.571 million people unemployed less than 27 weeks who are registered as unemployed but not receiving benefits, apparently because they quit their job, were fired for misconduct, involved in a labor dispute, etc... so are not eligible for benefits. These are also included in the total ONLY if they take the time to register, even though they get no benefits.
How many millions don't register because they won't get benefits anyway?
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