Goldman Cuts European GDP Forecast

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Thu, 10/07/2010 - 16:09 | 633525 Canucklehead
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I'm wondering if there is any merit to dusting off the old "United European Investors" concept that worked so well back in 1922.

New York Times Article dated December 15, 1922

Here is a little background information:


Thu, 10/07/2010 - 16:11 | 633536 HarryWanger
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AA just put up strong numbers and increase guidance saying world demand is strong. I guess we don't need that QE2 after all.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 16:14 | 633548 RobotTrader
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Not only that, JCP just rocketed, now up $2.75.

That stock is now up 11 days in a row.

Teen retailing?  Who knows?  The U.S. consumer cannot be underestimated.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 16:24 | 633581 HarryWanger
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Some pretty decent retail numbers across the board this morning. Yes, the economy is far from firing on all cylinders but it's also far from being dead. Somehow these folks are getting money to spend and they're not afraid to do so.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 17:15 | 633712 homersimpson
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Decent retail numbers? For who? For those analysts who had razor-thin expectations? Decent can mean many things in this Bernanke-inspired economy.. like having an "expected" unemployment rate of 9.9% tomorrow would be "decent"..

Gee - clothing stores sold more than usual during a month that would be considered a "back-to-school".. wow. "Decent" retail numbers for something that was expected.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 18:28 | 633856 HarryWanger
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Yes, pretty decent retail numbers today. Not great but far from being bad. Look, things are from great but nowhere near bad. 

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 16:18 | 633558 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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Hold on loosely, but don't let go!

If you cling to tight, you're gonna lose control!

A spot up from this year?  Hey next year is always better now! Sarc/


Thu, 10/07/2010 - 16:20 | 633566 Sudden Debt
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AAHH!! Just what I needed! A lower euro :)


Thu, 10/07/2010 - 16:27 | 633569 Miles Kendig
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The man-u-brick still can't reach the surface standing on those shouders.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 16:24 | 633583 SDRII
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AA meets lowered expectations on a $49M tax benefit - pathetic

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 16:27 | 633592 HarryWanger
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But they also said worldwide demand is up substantially.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 16:41 | 633624 Gubbmint Cheese
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all sorts of people say things - doesn't mean its going to turn out to be true.


Thu, 10/07/2010 - 16:41 | 633628 slaughterer
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Just hope the dollar stays depressed for Alcoa to reep the benefit of that 1% increased worldwide demand next quarter ...

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 17:15 | 633709 SDRII
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Klaus has been talking about chinese demand since he walked in the door. This after talking up the weight ocntent in autos - but that is a 2020 story. As for talking uop demand must be the incremental increases in GDP around the world, right. Of course of course there is a mix shift into jumbo jets to offset the roll off of auto programs.

Listening to what management says is a good way to go bankrupt.

"On a global basis, we see 2008 being another growth year. In our view, aluminum consumption will increase by approximately 8% and given the supply interruptions in China, South Africa and the U.S. to name a few, we see the global demand/supply picture to be generally in balance. The picture varies, however, substantially by industry and region. Let's go through that. " Q2:08, Klaus


Thu, 10/07/2010 - 16:39 | 633623 FunkyMonkeyBoy
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Looking at the 2010 column of data.

All the figures 'old and new' are the same apart from Italy and France which have been revised downwards...

... and yet the overall Euro-zone %yoy new stays at 1.7%. Obviously France and Italy don't have much contribution to the Euro-zone GDP.

It's like a magic.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 17:10 | 633693 TraderTimm
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There is another scenario, which others have mentioned before. People may be spending because that is the only way they know how to feel better. So they go a bit further into debt, "What the hell, not like I'm going to make a dent in that huge balance, and that is what credit is for!!", and buy up things for short term comfort.

Clothes, shoes, electronics. Stuff that is easily had and best bought in quantity with a bunch of friends so you can all have a "shopping high" together. Retail therapy is not a myth, and I'm not surprised it is reflected in JCP or anyone else's numbers.

Just one question though, when does the piper get paid? Cause' this tune has been going on for a while....


Wed, 10/27/2010 - 08:45 | 680142 daniel
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