Goldman Cuts NFP Forecast To 100,000 - Sheer Panic On Wall Street As The Heroin Addicts Demand QE3 NOW

Tyler Durden's picture

Not even 5 mintues ago we predicted that Goldman would lower its 150,000 NFP forecast to 125,000. Well, even we were off. Hatzius just cut his Friday NFP forecast to 100,000.  Just like last August when the horrendous NFP number set off QE2, so Wall Street is in full panic mode, as it tries to find a way to crush stocks enough to give Bernanke validation for QE3, but without getting retail to throw in the towel for the last time. Still to come: the firm trimming H2 GDP to under 3%. We give it a few days. Elsewhere, Joe Lavorgna is dry heaving in a corner somewhere, trying to find a way not to look like a complete idiot for having to cut his NFP forecast two days in a row, from 300,000 to under 150,000.

Another Weak Report; Lowering Payroll Forecast to 100k

BOTTOM LINE: ISM report weakens substantially, confirming significant slowing in growth in manufacturing sector. We are lowering our forecast for May nonfarm payroll employment to +100,000 from +150,000 previously.


1. The ISM manufacturing index weakened sharply in May, falling to 53.5 from 60.4 in April. The new orders and production components both fell by roughly 10 points-very large declines by historical standards. The employment index held up better, but also fell to 58.2 from 62.7. We continue to believe that supply chain disruptions in the auto sector resulting from the events in Japan are one factor behind the abrupt weakening in the manufacturing surveys. However, it cannot explain all of the weakness in the recent data, including that seen in measures of employment growth.

2. We are lowering our forecast for May nonfarm payroll employment to +100,000 from +150,000 previously. While the ADP report has a mixed tracked record in forecasting payroll growth, our research indicates it should receive some weight. Moreover, the weakness in the ADP report follows a streak of weaker-than-expected news on both the labor market and activity as whole. We are holding our forecast for the unemployment rate at 8.9% and for average hourly earnings growth at 0.2% mom.

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Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Elsewhere, Joe Lavorgna is dry heaving in a corner somewhere.......

Images Tyler. We demand images.

oogs66's picture

I think you are giving Lavorgnia too much credit.  I'm sure he doesn't believe he was 'wrong' just that other people are at fault for not creating data that lives up to his expectations.  He will be on CNBS later this week chortling about how great it would be if we bull dozed some homes.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Found him. Joe's in the executive bathroom. My operative snapped this and sent it to me.

LRC Fan's picture

Haha that guy looks like Brett Favre.  After being rejected by Jenn Sturger, who laughed at his penus pics. 

Cdad's picture

He looks  like Duncan Niederauer.  I wonder if he is hacking out a Chinese hairball?

Quinvarius's picture

He looks like Jim Rogers to me.  Which means someone dropped a gold coin in that toilet and he wants it bad enough to fish through the poo.

Fiat2Zero's picture

Jim Rogers - "Damn clip on bowtie...popped off"

Iriestx's picture

Green shoots have turned to puke chutes?

Don Birnam's picture

LaVorgna cutting from 300,000 to 150,000 -- that's some turbulent rethinking of "The Thesis." Perhaps this precipitous decline in bullish altitude is stirring a bit of motion discomfort. Here you go, Joe -- the proper accoutrement ( this one, "borrowed" from the First Class cabin on the return flight from Davos ):


ADirtyChapCalledWanker's picture

This is not an executive in the Goldman bathroom. The toilet is not gold plated, and there is not an intern holding a warm cloth to wipe his ass.

hedgeless_horseman's picture

Joe told me he loved me

so i don't understand

why promises are snapped in two

and words are made to bend

(the bigger, the better)

some stolen from Japan

collected from around the world,

front run you if they can


lies lies lies yeah

lies lies lies yeah

lies lies lies yeah

do i have to catch you out

to know what's on your mind

well, Obama loaned to egypt,

what a waste of time

white ones and red ones

and some you can't disguise

twisted truth and half the news

can't hide it in your eyes


you say you'll try harder

but i think it's just too late

well, the Russell is in a dive,

and i'm not the sort to wait

the bigger, the better

some nicked from Hatzius

collected from around the Street

Lavorgnia lies on and an and on and on and on and

lies lies lies yeah (they're gonna get you)

lies lies lies yeah (they won't forget you)

lies lies lies yeah (they're gonna get you)

lies lies lies yeah

oh you know i know


oh you know i know



Don Birnam's picture

### For Immediate Release ###

Deutsche Bank announces new U.S. Macroeconomic Research Team, who will be reporting directly to the Global Markets research chief, Joe LaVorgna.

Frankie Carbone's picture

The exploding scrap materials business might be a real job creator if you think about it. 

Temporalist's picture

That used douche Lavorgna should try to cut the size of his head in's friggin huge!

oogs66's picture

QE3!  Greek Bailout!  Long live capitalism.  BTFD.

oh_bama's picture


FINALLY people on the zerohedge site start to understand the GAME

  • SO BTFD!!


LongBalls's picture

It's QE to infinity or dollar collapse. I wonder which will come first? 

SWRichmond's picture

They are one and the same.

Fiat2Zero's picture

The dollar is Easing in a Quantitative way. Not popping (at least Ben hopes not).

Rodent Freikorps's picture

Bailing out the insolvent is not capitalism, bitch.

Shell Game's picture

It's almost funny (almost), how often the C word is brought up and bashed.  There's an entire generation who has never seen capitalism and yet they think they know it and hate it.

Temporalist's picture

What's worse is that those same brainwashed Izombies will say things like "The government is the people" and other nonsense that they were taught in them hier lernin institooshuns.

Shell Game's picture

They're paying an arm and leg and a future child for that there edjukashun, so it must be true...

SoNH80's picture

Hangin' in a chow line!  E-Z credit ripoffs!  Ain't we lucky we got 'em?  Hoo-hah, GOOOOD TIIIIMES!!!!

LRC Fan's picture

Meh, the Dow can't fall more than 108 it seems.  Goldman vs the PPT.  Fight!


oogs66's picture

I'm pretty sure Tyler has mentioned it already, but we are unlikely to hear a single person talk about the 'first derivative' and the 'rate of change' now that it has turned decidedly negative.  Just funny how much they liked to use that when it indicated things were getting less bad.

unununium's picture

I saw CNBC once report that "Amazon's loss worsened less than expected"

In other words,

 - Book value was negative

 - 1st derivative (earnings) was negative

 - 2nd derivative was negative (earnings worsening)

 - Second derivative beat the street's sandbagged estimate thereof.

 - 3rd derivative was also negative since YOY loss worsening worsened.


Temporalist's picture

Go long pig lipstick...and shit polish.

Jayda1850's picture
Called it. by Jayda1850
on Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:27


waiting for the ISM report to bomb, NFP estimates will all drop to 100,000. These forecasters have been so wildly off these past couple week, they have to try to cover their asses just to be able to show a modicum of relevance.

oogs66's picture

Bloomberg had 83 estimates.  Only 1 underestimated the number.  Someone from NordLB picked 53.0   though maybe he was letting the size of their Greek position cloud his otherwise rosy judgement

BlackholeDivestment's picture

''These forcasters'', lol! I flashed Less Nessman's '' Monster Lizard ravages East Coast''

Iriestx's picture

BTFD.  This baby is going to close green.

LRC Fan's picture

+150 (the # of Dow points we will bounce off our lowz to close green)

Iriestx's picture

PPT wakes up from last evening's coke bender @ 10:45a, plugs in the churn bots and runs this bitch green.

Rodent Freikorps's picture

Ummm...if it was a coke bender, they probably haven't slept yet. They just haven't rolled off the hooker yet.

Iriestx's picture

Bah, just snort and fuck until you can't get your dick hard anymore, then pop a couple of benzos.  You'll get the night of beauty sleep that you need to do "God's work," keeping Uncle Gorilla's ponzi casino in the green.

wesa's picture

If everyone cuts their forecast enough then the real number will likely be larger than the estimates and thus be declared a positive indication.

LRC Fan's picture

Lmao.  So true. 

Cue CNBC-"we are still positive for the week!!!!!!"

Funny part about today is the Dollar is still getting pounded in the ass and yet the Dow can't seem to catch a bid.  Don't worry-it will bounce way off these levels by 3pm. 

Jayda1850's picture

sounds like a huge rally tomorrow

Josh Randall's picture

The hilarity starts with the premise that QE-anything stimulates job growth in the US

Dr. No's picture

Agree.  But QE is not to stimulate job growth. It is sold as such, but is not its function.  The FED was mitigating big bank risk with QE.  If there is addtional risk identified by the banks, expect more QE.  If everthing is packaged up nice and tidy, no more QE.