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Goldman Cuts NFP Forecast To 100,000 - Sheer Panic On Wall Street As The Heroin Addicts Demand QE3 NOW

Tyler Durden's picture


Not even 5 mintues ago we predicted that Goldman would lower its 150,000 NFP forecast to 125,000. Well, even we were off. Hatzius just cut his Friday NFP forecast to 100,000.  Just like last August when the horrendous NFP number set off QE2, so Wall Street is in full panic mode, as it tries to find a way to crush stocks enough to give Bernanke validation for QE3, but without getting retail to throw in the towel for the last time. Still to come: the firm trimming H2 GDP to under 3%. We give it a few days. Elsewhere, Joe Lavorgna is dry heaving in a corner somewhere, trying to find a way not to look like a complete idiot for having to cut his NFP forecast two days in a row, from 300,000 to under 150,000.

Another Weak Report; Lowering Payroll Forecast to 100k

BOTTOM LINE: ISM report weakens substantially, confirming significant slowing in growth in manufacturing sector. We are lowering our forecast for May nonfarm payroll employment to +100,000 from +150,000 previously.


1. The ISM manufacturing index weakened sharply in May, falling to 53.5 from 60.4 in April. The new orders and production components both fell by roughly 10 points-very large declines by historical standards. The employment index held up better, but also fell to 58.2 from 62.7. We continue to believe that supply chain disruptions in the auto sector resulting from the events in Japan are one factor behind the abrupt weakening in the manufacturing surveys. However, it cannot explain all of the weakness in the recent data, including that seen in measures of employment growth.

2. We are lowering our forecast for May nonfarm payroll employment to +100,000 from +150,000 previously. While the ADP report has a mixed tracked record in forecasting payroll growth, our research indicates it should receive some weight. Moreover, the weakness in the ADP report follows a streak of weaker-than-expected news on both the labor market and activity as whole. We are holding our forecast for the unemployment rate at 8.9% and for average hourly earnings growth at 0.2% mom.


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Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:19 | 1328415 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Elsewhere, Joe Lavorgna is dry heaving in a corner somewhere.......

Images Tyler. We demand images.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:25 | 1328429 oogs66
oogs66's picture

I think you are giving Lavorgnia too much credit.  I'm sure he doesn't believe he was 'wrong' just that other people are at fault for not creating data that lives up to his expectations.  He will be on CNBS later this week chortling about how great it would be if we bull dozed some homes.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:28 | 1328441 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Found him. Joe's in the executive bathroom. My operative snapped this and sent it to me.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:28 | 1328447 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

Haha that guy looks like Brett Favre.  After being rejected by Jenn Sturger, who laughed at his penus pics. 

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:37 | 1328486 Cdad
Cdad's picture

He looks  like Duncan Niederauer.  I wonder if he is hacking out a Chinese hairball?

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:45 | 1328528 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

He looks like Jim Rogers to me.  Which means someone dropped a gold coin in that toilet and he wants it bad enough to fish through the poo.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:50 | 1328593 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I would too.

"It's no big deal."

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:56 | 1328629 Fiat2Zero
Fiat2Zero's picture

Jim Rogers - "Damn clip on bowtie...popped off"

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:26 | 1328455 Iriestx
Iriestx's picture

Green shoots have turned to puke chutes?

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:31 | 1328461 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture


Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:38 | 1328492 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

What a clean toilet.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:44 | 1328532 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

LaVorgna cutting from 300,000 to 150,000 -- that's some turbulent rethinking of "The Thesis." Perhaps this precipitous decline in bullish altitude is stirring a bit of motion discomfort. Here you go, Joe -- the proper accoutrement ( this one, "borrowed" from the First Class cabin on the return flight from Davos ):


Wed, 06/01/2011 - 11:32 | 1328861 ADirtyChapCalle...
ADirtyChapCalledWanker's picture

This is not an executive in the Goldman bathroom. The toilet is not gold plated, and there is not an intern holding a warm cloth to wipe his ass.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:36 | 1328474 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Joe told me he loved me

so i don't understand

why promises are snapped in two

and words are made to bend

(the bigger, the better)

some stolen from Japan

collected from around the world,

front run you if they can


lies lies lies yeah

lies lies lies yeah

lies lies lies yeah

do i have to catch you out

to know what's on your mind

well, Obama loaned to egypt,

what a waste of time

white ones and red ones

and some you can't disguise

twisted truth and half the news

can't hide it in your eyes


you say you'll try harder

but i think it's just too late

well, the Russell is in a dive,

and i'm not the sort to wait

the bigger, the better

some nicked from Hatzius

collected from around the Street

Lavorgnia lies on and an and on and on and on and

lies lies lies yeah (they're gonna get you)

lies lies lies yeah (they won't forget you)

lies lies lies yeah (they're gonna get you)

lies lies lies yeah

oh you know i know


oh you know i know



Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:50 | 1328586 andybev01
andybev01's picture

fucking hilarious! :-)

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:53 | 1328609 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

### For Immediate Release ###

Deutsche Bank announces new U.S. Macroeconomic Research Team, who will be reporting directly to the Global Markets research chief, Joe LaVorgna.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 11:25 | 1328836 Frankie Carbone
Frankie Carbone's picture

The exploding scrap materials business might be a real job creator if you think about it. 

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:23 | 1328437 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:55 | 1328601 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

That used douche Lavorgna should try to cut the size of his head in's friggin huge!

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:20 | 1328423 oogs66
oogs66's picture

QE3!  Greek Bailout!  Long live capitalism.  BTFD.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:25 | 1328430 oh_bama
oh_bama's picture


FINALLY people on the zerohedge site start to understand the GAME

  • SO BTFD!!


Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:40 | 1328499 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

It's QE to infinity or dollar collapse. I wonder which will come first? 

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:49 | 1328549 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

They are one and the same.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 11:00 | 1328636 Fiat2Zero
Fiat2Zero's picture

The dollar is Easing in a Quantitative way. Not popping (at least Ben hopes not).

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:37 | 1328488 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Bailing out the insolvent is not capitalism, bitch.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:42 | 1328525 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

It's almost funny (almost), how often the C word is brought up and bashed.  There's an entire generation who has never seen capitalism and yet they think they know it and hate it.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:58 | 1328627 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

What's worse is that those same brainwashed Izombies will say things like "The government is the people" and other nonsense that they were taught in them hier lernin institooshuns.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 11:11 | 1328712 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

They're paying an arm and leg and a future child for that there edjukashun, so it must be true...

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 11:14 | 1328736 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture


Wed, 06/01/2011 - 19:45 | 1330834 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

but in those towers, lies are spun..

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:28 | 1328465 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

Hangin' in a chow line!  E-Z credit ripoffs!  Ain't we lucky we got 'em?  Hoo-hah, GOOOOD TIIIIMES!!!!

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:23 | 1328435 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

Meh, the Dow can't fall more than 108 it seems.  Goldman vs the PPT.  Fight!


Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:27 | 1328438 oogs66
oogs66's picture

I'm pretty sure Tyler has mentioned it already, but we are unlikely to hear a single person talk about the 'first derivative' and the 'rate of change' now that it has turned decidedly negative.  Just funny how much they liked to use that when it indicated things were getting less bad.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:46 | 1328548 unununium
unununium's picture

I saw CNBC once report that "Amazon's loss worsened less than expected"

In other words,

 - Book value was negative

 - 1st derivative (earnings) was negative

 - 2nd derivative was negative (earnings worsening)

 - Second derivative beat the street's sandbagged estimate thereof.

 - 3rd derivative was also negative since YOY loss worsening worsened.


Wed, 06/01/2011 - 11:00 | 1328633 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Go long pig lipstick...and shit polish.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:27 | 1328440 Jayda1850
Jayda1850's picture
Called it. by Jayda1850
on Wed, 06/01/2011 - 09:27


waiting for the ISM report to bomb, NFP estimates will all drop to 100,000. These forecasters have been so wildly off these past couple week, they have to try to cover their asses just to be able to show a modicum of relevance.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:29 | 1328453 oogs66
oogs66's picture

Bloomberg had 83 estimates.  Only 1 underestimated the number.  Someone from NordLB picked 53.0   though maybe he was letting the size of their Greek position cloud his otherwise rosy judgement

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:33 | 1328483 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

''These forcasters'', lol! I flashed Less Nessman's '' Monster Lizard ravages East Coast''

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 11:07 | 1328678 Jayda1850
Jayda1850's picture

too funny lol!

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:27 | 1328444 Iriestx
Iriestx's picture

BTFD.  This baby is going to close green.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:26 | 1328451 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

+150 (the # of Dow points we will bounce off our lowz to close green)

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:33 | 1328484 Iriestx
Iriestx's picture

PPT wakes up from last evening's coke bender @ 10:45a, plugs in the churn bots and runs this bitch green.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:42 | 1328511 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Ummm...if it was a coke bender, they probably haven't slept yet. They just haven't rolled off the hooker yet.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 11:45 | 1328945 Iriestx
Iriestx's picture

Bah, just snort and fuck until you can't get your dick hard anymore, then pop a couple of benzos.  You'll get the night of beauty sleep that you need to do "God's work," keeping Uncle Gorilla's ponzi casino in the green.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:25 | 1328449 wesa
wesa's picture

If everyone cuts their forecast enough then the real number will likely be larger than the estimates and thus be declared a positive indication.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:33 | 1328462 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

Lmao.  So true. 

Cue CNBC-"we are still positive for the week!!!!!!"

Funny part about today is the Dollar is still getting pounded in the ass and yet the Dow can't seem to catch a bid.  Don't worry-it will bounce way off these levels by 3pm. 

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:33 | 1328469 Jayda1850
Jayda1850's picture

sounds like a huge rally tomorrow

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:26 | 1328452 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

The hilarity starts with the premise that QE-anything stimulates job growth in the US

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:30 | 1328473 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Agree.  But QE is not to stimulate job growth. It is sold as such, but is not its function.  The FED was mitigating big bank risk with QE.  If there is addtional risk identified by the banks, expect more QE.  If everthing is packaged up nice and tidy, no more QE.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 11:02 | 1328649 Fiat2Zero
Fiat2Zero's picture

Right, job growth, one of the Fed's "mandates," meaning "smokescreens," is basically there to give them cover to destroy the currency, courtesy of the man in the street.

You do want jobs don't you? QEn => Jobs.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:31 | 1328459 unununium
unununium's picture

The retail crop has to be reaped sometime.  Right before QE3 would seem logical.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:29 | 1328466 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

What Goldman wants.  Goldman gets.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:29 | 1328467 Number 156
Number 156's picture

Hey, anyone notice what the currency crosses look like this morning?

(Evil grin)

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:38 | 1328472 Atlantis Consigliore
Atlantis Consigliore's picture

Wheres Paul Giamatti eating his mush?


Wheres the little monkee dealing the heroin

in Double Dip Hangover II?


I want my bailout, and if you dont give it to me Ill sue,  wheres my foodstamps, wheres my unemployment, wheres my free gas, its my right, tax the f.....n internet and give me my money from your MILKSHAKE SUCKER.

oh, and GM send another 500 Limos to Wash the bankster and crooksters for the printing.

Let them eat Limos!

Fuel:   use the ANAL ysts and lobbyists.

Hello to all you down here in US of Greece.

nothing to see here, just take your drugs

and watch "Dancing with the Printers, and

American Lobbyists",    Life with the Banksters,

that movie with the Crack smoking Monkey .....very much a Medaphor, 

(oh, wait, Nikki, dont burn down the real estate

it'l  bounce,  it has too.   1/3 the country is

under water.  LOL.   Wait, Lets have a foreclosure No Doc crises to slow it down.

Medaphor;  the Hungover toothless Dummy gets it in the rear from the "Girl"  like the Pols give it to the Sheeple;  Baaaaaaa, baaaaaaaa.

from Bullworth, someone post the

Video Bullworth rap: "its the tax payer, the worker, the entrepreneur getting it in the rear, but its the ones paying my tv spots,

I only listen to, they're very,very dear!"


Let me hear ya say it:  Socialism,

(tax that d. internet Collifornia, tax it dead)  

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:35 | 1328477 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

Liesman said this does not hurt the recovery.

I guess you can't hurt something that does not exist.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:39 | 1328493 Central Wanker
Central Wanker's picture

No, it does not hurt recovery. It kills it.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:45 | 1328507 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

Vimpire (Economics) Mirror above, so below ...the spiraling Black Hole leads to Golden Horde. Muuuh ha haa haaa!

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:38 | 1328490 partimer1
partimer1's picture

I think most of these BS forecasts are to serve a purpose, to make the market go up and down, so than their banks and traders can rip off those retail traders or dumb funds.  Otherwise, how can they be so stupid that come up with those forecasts so far off?  Maybe they are sitting in front of a dumb terminal everyday, and forget what they eat and drink need someone else to grow and brew (total detachment from reality).  If you have someone in your office, making those kinds of numbers so far off, would you fire his dumbass after a couple times?  How can these people still come up numbers after that many failures, if their only existence is not to move the market? 

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:35 | 1328494 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Can't wait for Robot to spin all this crap as positive and telling us to "buy the dip". What a crock of shit this country is turning into. Let us pay the price, get the depression over with and start over. Not the end of the world, just the end of a lot of idiotic politicians. And that is why it will not happen.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:37 | 1328501 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Small predictions: We'll see urban blight return to many large Metros that had it before (East coast mid-Atlantic, North Midwest) but also in ones that never experienced it (West coast, SouthWest, FL).

But the new shocker will be the burbs are gonna be blighted. The burbs close into NYC are hangin on for dear life. People who can get out are long gone or trying to. THe same story will play out over and over in older suburbs that don't have a high concentration of super wealthy. 

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:42 | 1328524 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

That is right on the money.  Manchester, NH, Worcester MA, Boston itself are all circling the drain.  1970's here we come, dangerous public transportation, dangerous parks, crazy kids out of control.  State Police scared.... of kids!  Bad, bad moon rising.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:47 | 1328537 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Agree. Was hoping it hadn't come to Boston burbs so quick. Guess it has. Once it hits it never ends soon or easily

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:48 | 1328577 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

3 words:  taser machine guns


(I think I'll invent it and make a buzillion dollars!!!)

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 11:09 | 1328698 Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

Too late.  It has been invented already.


Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:48 | 1328545 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

If you have not already done so, read The Long Emergency.

Kunstler, a long-time critic of suburban design, advises communities to change to accommodate walking and bicycling as the primary modes of transport. Populations should be moved out of big cities into smaller communities that have nearby arable land with adequate water and favourable climate for agriculture. People should begin learning to grow food.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 11:29 | 1328840 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

have to agree with Kunstlers points, although gas prices have moderated, probably due to weaker demand, which may have been the clue that the NFP was going to miss. in CA the first retrenchment was from the exurbs, gated communities built even farther beyond the aging burbs (built mostly in the 60s and 70s). as the economy moves to mostly service the jobs are where the people are, and mostly that is new inner city redevelopment.

for some reason planners keep stacking folks up in these apartment buildings where they have no chance to create any autonomy for themselves. the way they are building it we are heading for Soylent 3, (the social outcome of QE3).hopefully the Governor of CA will be able to stop redevelopment, (recall the case in Conn led to SCOTUS approving Emminent Domain laws), and stop the warehousing of people in urban centers, (which does solve the transportation problem, but little else)

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:38 | 1328508 pepperspray
pepperspray's picture

So does today's busy news make LNKD a buy here?

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:42 | 1328516 razorthin
razorthin's picture

I say this as I shake my head in disgust, but an inverse head and shoulders might be setting up to test 1370 on the SPX.  Do you really doubt that after the past 2 years?

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:50 | 1328558 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

Inverse head and shoulders are bottoming patterns. May be a bullish cup forming however..

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:42 | 1328530 Hondo
Hondo's picture

I hope the FED doesn't make the biggest mistake of all time and proceed to Q3.  I hope they let the market clear itself.......and it will do so.  Leading to more stability and solid foundation (non speculative).  It is the solution but I'm not sure the FED is smart enough to see it.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:44 | 1328536 razorthin
razorthin's picture

I would say, "but what's in it for them?", but the answer is obvious.  Short the pig all the way down and buy everything up on the cheap.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:49 | 1328554 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

And throw the banks and WS under the bus? 

Dream on

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 17:05 | 1330335 Fiat Money
Fiat Money's picture

rog dat. 

   dey'll throw EVERYONE else under de bus.. late u.s. const-ti-tu-tion, entire companies,  amerika's ENTIRE in-dustrial base, pensions, ENTIRE ed-u-cation system, u.s.d.$$, heck our EN-TIRE  food supply (gulf oil-soaked herring, or Fukushima salted shrimp, anyone?)  but GOTTA KEEP dem Wall st.  STOCK PRICES up,  so black-heart ben can snicker at the peons, and smile and glad-hand  fer his mega-rich sponsors!

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:45 | 1328540 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

Has this news been factored in? another million jobs cuts at state local level?

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:47 | 1328565 RubberMartyr
RubberMartyr's picture

The fed never decided on interest rates or QE or whatever. The market made that decision for them, Greenspan admitted that.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 10:57 | 1328605 marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

so, when coupled with all this other crappy economic data if NFP takes a dump and 1st time claims continue to beat expectations,  that assures us of 2 things.  all resistance to a debt ceiling increase will be swept away in a 2008 style doomsday campaign headed up by Timmy, and QE3 will be a lock right? but won't this also assure us that the economy will never again function on it's own, that it's not even on life support anymore but is now in hospice being fed pain meds to ease it's passing? I'm seriously wondering if this is one of those moments that history will look back upon and point to as the defining moment in a chain of events that destroyed yet another great society from the inside. we see the bread and circus all around, wasn't the UBL raid to Obama as the fiddle was to's amazing to watch Washington get louder and louder, the sound and the fury signifying nothing while the propaganda corps MSM are desperately trying to detach the population from reality. It makes me wonder have we already passed the PSR and what comes next?

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 11:01 | 1328639 Rynak
Rynak's picture

I'm confused. Everything is down, except of gold which is rapidly up. Almost as if people are fleeing from stocks and currencies into metals, on the expectation of QE3. Since when do markets behave rationaly? Surely this must be a mistake?

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 11:03 | 1328661 Fiat2Zero
Fiat2Zero's picture

Glitch in the Matrix?

Did you see a black cat cross your path twice?  The exact same cat?

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 11:10 | 1328727 Rynak
Rynak's picture

ROBOTRADER! Uncle gorilla must do something urgently! The market is showing signs of SANITY!

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 11:00 | 1328654 Gimp
Gimp's picture

Propaganda people are not listening to what we are telling you...there is no unemployment, all is well..

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 11:01 | 1328663 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

Dow is already about 25 pts off its lowz.  Going green in about 4 hours. 

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 11:08 | 1328688 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

The algorithms are now attuned 100% to corporate earnings.  The GDP smack underway cannot affect earnings of companies getting so very much revenue from overseas sales.  

Only oil affects all these things.  Tack another $20 onto oil and you get sales declines both domestic and international.  When we see that, then and only then will you see a protracted decline in equities.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 11:22 | 1328788 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

But we have some many f-16's that we can trade / barter for oil to offset the price!

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 11:18 | 1328760 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

So this is bad news? It will be spun as not as bad as it could have been and the market will go up. It's just like we would have lost even more jobs without the many government stimuli.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 11:50 | 1328978 TheGameIsRigged
TheGameIsRigged's picture

Ha!  That is OBVIOUSLY Jamie Dimon....

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 12:01 | 1329025 nah
nah's picture

at least congress lets the republic view the hard financial choices before us... while the banks run the nation

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 16:52 | 1330302 Fiat Money
Fiat Money's picture

nice headline!   The bernank bubble boyz

sure feel entitled to their  "free money for me... 30% usurous interest for the peons!"

 opium  er,  QE  fix, don't they?!

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 18:46 | 1330657 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

I bet the NFP doesn't even come in at +50k

All of these jobs that were previously being reported were temporary government jobs that are going away faster and faster...The jobs Obama claims to have created were all 9 month positions that are now gone, and companies are still not hiring....I think Bernanke thought his little QE game would get companies hiring within 9 months, and he was wrong yet again. 

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