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Goldman: "The Dollar Needs To Fall A Lot Further From Here"
In today's note by Goldman's Robin Brook, the analyst takes an inverse approach of looking at what a dollar drop implies for CPI and general prices, in an attempt to settle a debate whether the expected drop in the USD as a result of QE2 will have a meaningful impact on both inflation, currency wars, and other derivatives of monetary policy. As Goldman concludes: "the ‘pass-through’ from Dollar declines to US consumer price inflation
is small. This in turn means that – if indeed the Fed sees the Dollar as
one of its key policy levers for preventing inflation from staying
below its mandate for a prolonged period – the Dollar needs to fall a lot further from here." The quantification of "lot" is not provided but is sufficiently indicative from a qualitative standpoint. Of course, the biggest issue here is with the construction of CPI itself, which is driven far more by a collapse in leveraged input prices specifically as pertains to shelter, then spiking prices in items most see as critical in day to day use. Nonetheless, as Goldman is one of the Primary Dealers whose opinion is now a part of the "reverse inquiry" methodology in determining monetary policy, the fact that the hedge fund is comfortable with a substantial drop in the USD implies that the Fed should be just as comfortable with a shock and awe approach to QE2, as a pronounced effect on the dollar would likely have to come from a stepwise drop as opposed to a gradual wear down which would be intercepted by other central banks. The key question remains: what level on the DXY is Goldman, and thus the Fed comfortable with as ""modestly inflation stimulating, and what will the price of jeans be, gold, and other commodities be, not to mention what the final level of excess reserves and margins for Chinese exporters, once that level is finally attained.
From Goldman Sachs:
Historically, only a relatively small fraction of a Dollar fall is ‘passed through’ into consumer prices. For example, a paper by researchers at the Fed concludes based on data from 1981 to 2000 that a 10 percent decline in the trade-weighted Dollar boosts inflation by only around 30 bps, a very small effect. The small magnitude of this effect reflects a variety of factors, among which perhaps the most important is the desire of foreign exporters to preserve market share in the US, which means that they tend to react to Dollar falls by accepting smaller profit margins rather than hiking prices.
We update this analysis, by estimating a simple but popular Phillips curve specification that relates year-over-year core CPI inflation to the concurrent unemployment gap (measured by the distance of actual unemployment from the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate of the “natural” rate, currently at 5%), inflation expectations (measured by the 50th percentile of the Reuters/University of Michigan survey of longer term inflation), and the current and lagged year-over-year percent changes in the GS broad Dollar trade-weighted index.
We estimate a similar magnitude for the pass-through as the Fed for data through 2000, but when we update the analysis for more recent data we find that the exchange rate pass-through into core CPI has fallen to essentially zero. This decline in pass-through is put down to the changing composition of imports in the academic literature, with the composition of imports changing over time towards goods with low pass-through.
Of course, it is possible that this “partial” effect underestimates the full effect from Dollar weakness on inflation, because it does not account for the fact that a lower Dollar has the potential to boost employment and raise inflation expectations. However, when we try to control for these indirect channels, we still find that the pass-through from the Dollar to inflation is negligible.
At a more fundamental level, it is possible that our estimates – and those in the academic literature – are biased down because – over the sample period – most of the variation in the trade-weighted Dollar has been against other majors, rather than against key emerging markets from which the bulk of traded consumables that go into the CPI are imported. If going forward there is meaningful appreciation of NJA FX against USD – and this is indeed our base case, in which we expect CNY to strengthen 7% against USD over the next 12 months – our estimates could understate the impact of a Dollar fall on CPI.
We thus perform a robustness check, wherein we assume that all apparel and recreation items in the CPI are imported from China, which together accounts for roughly 10 percentage points in the CPI. Allowing for the fact that around 40% of apparel imported into the US are from China and assuming a 100% pass-through (an extreme assumption we make for the purpose of illustration), a 7% appreciation of CNY against USD in this setting would boost CPI by around 30 bps in one year. Making more realistic assumptions on pass-through, the impact on the US CPI is likely to be much smaller than that, in line with our empirical estimates. Therefore, even with significant CNY appreciation, the impact on US inflation is likely to be small.
What all this points to is that – in line with the academic literature – the ‘pass-through’ from Dollar declines to US consumer price inflation is small. This in turn means that – if indeed the Fed sees the Dollar as one of its key policy levers for preventing inflation from staying below its mandate for a prolonged period – the Dollar needs to fall a lot further from here.
Ultimately, core CPI inflation remains hostage to the slowdown in rental (shelter) price and services (less shelter) price inflation – a point we have made repeatedly in our research and one of the main reasons why our bond forecasts have been below the forwards over the past 18-months. These components represent a significant component of the core inflation rate at approximately 31.9% and 28.3% respectively and are typically determined largely by domestic as opposed to external factors. And so as domestic conditions remain depressed, core inflation is likely to remain below levels the Fed would consider consistent with its mandate for some time.
And, indicatively, Goldman does provide a framework for expected dollar depreciation:
We recently updated our estimate of the potential impact of QE2 on GDP growth in yesterday’s US Daily. Taking into account historical linkages and the possibility that a number of the usual transmission channels from financial conditions to growth are likely impaired at present—particularly housing investment—we estimate that $1 trn in asset purchases could be worth about ½ a percentage point of growth. Again, this estimate is subject to a large degree of uncertainty, but if this order of magnitude is right, then the impact of QE2 on growth is hardly earth shattering.
QE2 will of course also have important effects on inflation, not least via Dollar depreciation which should raise import and ultimately consumer prices. It is this external channel on inflation that we now want to focus on, in part because recent interest – as part of the “currency war” debate – has focused on the fall-out of QE2 on the Dollar.
Here, we reverse the question. Instead of asking how much the Dollar might fall because of QE2, we ask how much of a Dollar decline is needed to meaningfully boost inflation in the US. We think that this will help benchmark the Dollar decline we have seen to-date, and also help put in perspective our forecast for a further 5% decline in the Dollar on a broad, trade-weighted basis from here over the next 12 months.
Of course, this particular approach is just one of many ways to benchmark Dollar weakness. As we have previously argued in a Global Viewpoint, the core of our long-standing bearish Dollar view is the need for a rebalancing of the US economy to improve external balances and lower relative real wages.
In other words, look for hard commodities to more than make up for the 5% anticipated drop in absolute purchasing power, and for a far more dire margin warning from the like of Jones Apparel at the next earnings go around.
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i want out of this country. are banana republics accepting citizenship applications?
what planet do these guys live on? not kidding. this entire paper is a fantasy.....
Tyler Durden wrote:
Erm, you really need to read the paper you are commenting on. It says:
I.e. your "purchasing power" in the US is not affected much. The Fed is really acting in the US national interest in this case.
The reason for the muted coupling of DXY to consumer prices (which make up much of your purchasing power):
But by all means don't let facts get in the way of a good rant against the Fed!
Really?
Predicting an outcome upon "historical" data... maybe not entirely relevant in the times in which we live?
Well, if Tyler thinks that the paper is wrong he should not have based his point on their analysis ;-)
Tyler said: "[...] 5% anticipated drop in absolute purchasing power,"
While the anticipated 5% drop in the Goldman piece was not about purchasing power, it was about the dollar FX rate. (which, as the Goldman piece noted, does not couple back to US prices overly strongly, i.e. it does not strongly weaken US purchasing power.)
He mixed up 'purchasing power' and the 'dollar FX rate'. (a common mistake)
Yeah, I know what you mean, if Goldman said it then IT MUST BE TRUE.
LOL
Your scepticism is justified. (albeit the GS macro guys are pretty sharp).
The point is that Tyler used the Goldman conclusions to make his point, but the very paper he cites says the opposite.
Yeah, no doubt logic is hard ;-)
.
.
It's amazing that they think they can control this stuff like a video game. They don't seem to realize that once the manipulation gets extreme that people are going to lose faith in all things dollar.
Actually, yes you CAN buy citizenship to various countries... or buy a small island if you are so inclined. Search the Internet and you will find plenty of information.
With BennieBux?
Andorra is a good choice. Tax free, $50,000 for a full-time resident permit. 5 ski resorts, Spanish chicas and the Barcelona coast and airport just 1.5hrs away
:)
This whole article was a pretty solid tell that the dollar is going to strengthen further over the next few months. Goldman does this with every damn FX trade, I think TD forgot to check his confirmation bias at the door.
If the $ falls "a lot further from here" you can stick your head between your legs and kiss your ass goodbye.........
WeimArgentina here we come!
It turned out great for every other country that obliterated its currency!
.
On:
How about lowering the relative real wages of the Goldman executives and traders?
DROP EVERY DOLLAR ON THE FLOOR!!!
THIS IS A ROBERY BITCHEZ!!!
So if the dollar goes a lot lower that means:
-inflation will go a lot higher
-gas/oil will go a lot higher
-10/30 yr rates will go a lot higher
-multinationals will have higher intl profits that they won't bring home because they don't like the tax rate
Sounds like a winner to me.
Everyone at GS needs to be a lot more unemployed from here.
I wonder how many of these idiots actually go shopping and try to feed their kids. Or how many of them actually write the checks to pay their utility bills. No pass through my ass.
Trust me...If these monsters have kids, they surely don't give a crap about them.
So true. But because they fuck almost everybody, I do think these guys have a lot of kids. Hey! Maybe "your" kids might be some of them. And do you get a paycheck in you mail for them?
Painfully true.
.
they do twitter their orders to their Mexican houseslaves. Does that count for anything?
YOU NEED TO BE BANNED.
I love you to.
And if you keep up the asskissing, I'll let you suck my dick ;)
If GS is successful and scaring the dollar lower, they make money as the equity markets rally higher....
The jaw boning will be over in a few days. Time to show your cards ben ....
5 ACES!! HE WINS!!!
+2 jokers
Aces and Eights?
They 'make money' in what, crashing dollars?
" in line with the academic literature – the ‘pass-through’ from Dollar declines to US consumer price inflation is small"
Hey don't worry all the ivey league PhDs say inflation will be mild. So it must be true, after all they are the experts.
Wages are stagnant to falling (if you're lucky enough to have a job).
Real estate prices may be falling but my mortgage payment isn't going down.
Meanwhile, food, gas, health insurance, tuition, etc. are surging.
And any money left over for savings is being devalued daily.
This is the Fed's quadfecta fuck job on every working stiff in America and about to get much worse if banana Ben gets his way.
Welcome to the casino gulag
Madness. Total unmitigated lunacy. Insanity institutionalized and homogenized to make it palatable and digestible.
Bottom's up boys and girls.
Your first "shear madness" version was better. So much meaning packed into an (intentional?) pun.
LOL
I changed it when I realized too many people would "correct" my spelling rather than look for the hidden pun/meaning. I've done similar before only to be hounded by the grammar Nazi's around here. :>)
I've found it interesting that so many here on ZH can blast out comments with no punctuation, no caps, misspellings, whatever and no one says a word. But I seem to be under greater scrutiny around here, probably because I do take care with my comments so "errors" (real or not) stand out. Lately I've been toeing the line rather than get beat up.
I think part of the problem are the newbies who haven't been around here long enough to know who is who and what their writing styles are. So humor and sarcasm is sometimes lost or falls on deaf ears.
my opinion is that you don't have to be an english major to be good at math
Fall in soldier or step out of line. I like it better when you step out of line CD. Keep up the good work.
NT
the only thing that needs to fall is goldman
c*nts
how can they call for the fall of the nations own currency
pure scum
There is a reason al-Quaeda attacked the WTC and not 200 West Street.....
al-CIAda?
I guess the squid didn't like that............Hehehehehehehehe
Because in volatility comes opportunity. You are assuming some sort of patriotism on the part of bankers? There nation is wealth and it is the only territory they defend.
i think what they're saying is you can print a shit-load of currency without it falling much on a relative basis
Brilliant plan! Soon Americans will be reduced to the level of Chinese peasants, and will be able to successfully compete in garment factories.
Oh sure, there'll be a little pain. But from a sustainability standpoint, it's a winner!
[ / Sarcasm ]
This whole long scenario is really just about the US global corporatist’s lust for the wealth createe by the 500 million Chinese slaves. And in the process if they can create another 200 million slaves here then that is just icing on the cake.
This whole long scenario is really just about the US global corporatist’s lust for the wealth created by the 500 million Chinese slaves. And in the process if they can create another 200 million slaves here then that is just icing on the cake.
It's typical encoded-speak. Apply the cipher and you get: Buy the Dollar.
Odd, I got "Be sure to drink your Ovaltine."
Odd, I got "Be sure to drink your Ovaltine."
That was my reaction on the basis of previous ZH guidance on GS guidance!
Have I missed a game changing event? Is there a new missive from the planet ZHoGS?
Bill Gross, China (biggest Dollar denominated treasury longs) and Goldman (biggest reverse book talker) are short Dollar per ZH in the past 3 days. Hands off there is gonna be a BOJ sponsored bloodbath.
time to buy the dollar?
if anyone has any doubts left that this a controlled demolition of the economy look no further than this
the economy is 70 percent consumer based
so only a strong dollar can help that when wages and tangible assets like equity in housing are going down. How are people going to consume anything in this environment?
price of ink and paper is going up, thats for sure.
The dollar needs to "go a lot lower" gracie??? ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME???!!!????
These "economic wizards" at Goldman Sucks are just total idiots. The fucking idiots think that nuking the economy, debasing the dollar, and general lawlessness in order to bolster the 'stock prices" justifies the fucking means???
These idiots need to be "resigned" in one way or the other. Talk about "short term" horizon! Is this quarter all these idiots think about??? What a bout a "future" and the 'earnings" in said future when idiots like GS and banker criminals will be shot at from every roof for the crimes against the country they commit. Hope these guys start buying bullet proof vests ande body armor, they are gonna need it if they continue down thiw road with this line of thinking.
THEY are the dangerous ones.
What a bunch of fucking idiots!!!!
did you actually think the dollar would strenghten with all this shit happening?
I just checked the future and....there isn't one.
There will be a future.
Question is will it look more like:
the industrial past (1800-2010)?
the pre-industrial past (1300-1800)?
the "kill & eat it or starve / don't get sick cause you'll die for sure" past (prior to 1300)?
OR will it look like The Walking Dead (premieres Halloween on AMC)?
I choose zombies. At least they're consistent and a headshot will stop them.
From the makers or "Fighting for Peace" and "Fucking for Virginity" comes the brand new: "Printing money to fight inflation". On sale now at a WalMart near you, batteries not included.
Poor Ben. He really does believe in Animal Spirits. He thinks that at a 5% cheaper dollar, US laborers will be competitive.
Here's a clue Benny: At a 50% cheaper dollar, US labor still wouldn't be competitive with Chinese labor. You want to go there? Try it.
Gee I sure hope the Fed finds the maximum level of suffering that the little people can tolerate.
From the makers or "Fighting for Peace" and "Fucking for Virginity" comes the brand new: "Printing money to fight inflation". On sale now at a WalMart near you, batteries not included.
"We recently updated our estimate of the potential impact of QE2 on GDP growth in yesterday’s US Daily. Taking into account historical linkages and the possibility that a number of the usual transmission channels from financial conditions to growth are likely impaired at present—particularly housing investment—we estimate that $1 trn in asset purchases could be worth about ½ a percentage point of growth"
This is the meat, the nub and the hub around which this mad wheel, soon to crash is spinning.
In automotive terms, once you've hit the power band, pushing the accelerator the floor only wastes fuel.
Talk about throwing good money after bad. Worse when you realize wehre that good money is coming from.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
Goldman Sachs Kuntz
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9duSZL_-mM
Duplicate.
Few suggestions to the president: -
- The averge american is stupid and foolish. I request the president to save money on elections and conduct a poll with some 10-20 PDs for the upcoming elections. That should be cheap and safe and you can name it as a austerity measure too saving the taxpayer's money.
- People who are not buying AAPL and AMZN are acting against the nation. It should be made mandatory for every citizen to trade compulsively. Those in need of money can borrow it from banks under new trading loan scheme. This country needs new bubble now.
More later....
These people, and their Government-affiliated cohorts, are playing with fire. We are at a juncture, or tipping point if you will, where decisions will be made by people who simply cannot take into account or control all variables. In other words, the decisions will be based more on speculation and faith (not to mention hope) than a clear notion of where the decisions will lead. Sadly, once made and implemented, there will be no return to "square one" or the possibility of an easy fix; forces and consequences will be irretrievably unleashed.
Triplicate. Can we not just delete these?
Duplicate.
just to let the scum know that in Zimbabwe they had a roaring stock market but i do not think the people thought the economy was doing great. If you think stocks going up are the only way to stop people rioting think again
even sheeple have some brains
Agreed. The price of rice skyrocketed during the 2008 meltdown after the bailouts began. If Lehman had been monetized instead of letting it fail, who knows what would have happened to commodities prices. It was truly a case of debt collapse vs hyperinflation. The short term probelm was solved by suspending OTC derivative writedowns with the FED buying confidence through TARP.
High cost of food or shortages = riots. Hard to understand this until you try going without food and water for a few days.
What an utterly myopic analysis. Sometimes, you just want to take a 2x4 and whack some of these guys in the noggin.
Depending on the size of the QE in question, the big risk is that other countries lose faith in the U.S. currency... and just sell dollars indescriminately. Most developed countries don't like our trade policies at all, and really won't like further dollar devaluation. At the end of the day, you can target the dollar and inflation all you want-- but you are much more likely to miss your target than not. And with monetary policy in extreme makeover ease mode, the risk is that they could miss these so-called targets badly.
And while in the academic world, the link between dollar declines and US inflation pass-through are small-- what is more relevant is the real world effects, because it's those real hits to the pocketbooks of Americans that ultimately affect political outcomes. The reality is that global commodities are already feeling the effects of dollar devaluated inflation-- and it's in the early stages of hitting consumers. Yet wages and incomes are going nowhere.
When people end up paying $5 for a gallon of milk-- or $6 for a gallon of gasoline-- it won't matter one iota whether the manipulated U.S. CPI is higher by 2%-- or higher by 12%. The end results will be a further retrenched consumer, and cries from the masses for our government leaders to "do something". Only this time, it will be much more intense than what we witnessed in 2008 due to the fact underemployment is now at 17%, not 8%.
If you think the Federal Reserve is terribly unpopular now, just wait another 6 months under another massive QE program.
Goldman said the dollar has to fall?
Looks like it's time to go long the USD!
So I take it Goldman did a write in on their ballot for $4T in QE?
no everyone says he wrote in $4T but they wrote in sub $1T and went long
Yeah, and we bail these fucking idiots out and the still want to devaluate our money further.
How many ways can these criminal banking/financial cabal toell Americans to "Go fuck themselves".
These son of a bitches. I am furious! "Everyman" furious and are at about the point of all out violence visited upon these bankester criminals and so called "economic experts".
The "2 x 4" should not be applied up side the head, it should be shoved up their asses!
I am so tired of the idiots and their short term view of the world.
isnt devaluing kindof like austerity without passing laws.
Maybe a bit of austerity from the US consumer is a good thing.
Not really, nufio.
Devaluation is certainly "austerity" for those paying taxes into the system-- but it does absolutely nothing the change the behaviors of: (a)those who have taken irresponsible risks with capital (banks), or (b) those that continue to allow more spending to occur in excess of tax revenues (Congress).
If you want effective austerity (something that actually achieves something), ALL parties-- and especially the ones taking the most egregious risks-- must be participant in the sacrifice.
What you are seeing in the U.S. is not austerity-- what you are seeing is massive wealth transference.
OE to infinity! Or the housing bomb goes off and we are so fucked. They will take the DXY to mid 60's and gold to 2000 that's a given
The monkeys are running the Zoo. Glad I speak Spanish so I can live on the beach with my hottie with all the money I make turning paper money into gold. What a shame the banksters and the NWO have the sheeple by the balls.
everyday i pray that bernanke gets assassinated
with all the guns in the USA why are they not used in a productive manner?
Instead of hunting deer y'all should be hunting criminal banksters
I'd like to see Blankfeins head and Bernankes head on a wall soon
Be patient my friend. All good things come to those who wait. Ok FEDS, its a joke. relax....
These SOBS that have literally "stolen" balue from the assets of 330,000,000 American citizens need to undrstand that in that population there will be a large population of those that are flat out crazy, and those that have lost so much the feel they have nothing to lose, and another group that feels the need to tak any action to protect the future for their children.
THOSE GROUPS will start taking out these criminals if the courts and the regulatory peopel do not start doing their fucking jobs. We are not far from Bernake, Geitner and ZSummers and the talking head pundit economists at universities being assaulted or out right hunted down and eliminated.
They are not going to stop until they push the people so far that they have no other choicde but violence. If voting does not work, I guess it goes to use of brutal force. They use financial terrorism, we the people will use "whatever means necessary and at our disposal" to eliminate this threat to our livelihoods and to stop the asset stealing of our families.
Ok that does it. Old square head Denniger is not getting any of my door stops.
I don't believe they would telegraph their intentions. I'm still going with a sub 1T annoucement with a "wait and see" trailer. But I know I'm in the minority.
I don't know if you are in the minority.
Most of that is baked in right now so equities should drift higher, gold will vacillate up here for a bit and correct against the green shoot reports from the success of QE2 which will come quick.
I was actually thinking equities lower with a disappointing QE2 - definetely not in the success from QE2 camp in any way, shape, or form....
So, maybe we'll see a new request for comments by the Fed, in the next few days, as to what level the big boys think the US$ should be targeted to by the FED??
At least we now know with certainty that Goldman owns the FED.
I like the way GS has looked at a study done by the Fed! What a joke. These guys seem to have lost all link to the real world of human action and only seem to focus on formulas based on bogus government statistics.
in a true democracy why don't they ask the public if they want QE or not
sorry being naive there but thats what everyone should demand
will someone please unplug me
I can't standf the matrix any more
incidentally talking of the matrix do people know that the expiry date on neros passport was 9/11 2001?
No, I didn't know. Spooky "coincidence"! ... and there is a similar "coincidence" in an X-files episode aired in March, 2001.
(Both "coincidences" are highlighted in this YouTube clip)
The Matrix was released in 1999. I've also seen evidence that 9/11 was planned at least as early as 1999.
Now that the latest 5 terabytes of video and audio evidence extracted from NIST by court order irrefutably confirm that 9/11 was an inside job, these movie hints dating back to 1999 or earlier also seem to confirm how far back it was planned.
The full truth will come out soon. Instead of us being called "9/11 Truthers", the apologists for the government will soon be branded "9/11 Deniers" (like Holocaust Deniers).
Both PIMCO's Gross and GS 'dollar lower' report are part of the Fed-Treasury psyops campaign. Their targets are:
1) US equity shorts (i.e. 'drive stake thru the heart, again, and again until the beast dies')
2) Chinese holders of USD denominated bonds (i.e. 'let the yuan appreciate 10% or we'll deflate your dollar-denominated bonds by 50% -- your call').
3) US pension fund managers (i.e. 'make money while we artificially inflate the equity market, because your massive underfunding can never be solved by market fundamentals in the next 10 years').
They are acting crazy intentionally in the same way that Mel Gibson used to in those 'Lethal Weapon' cop movies. QE2 is the Lethal Weapon.
They are not crazy, or stupid, or traitors.
They are conniving, manipulative, fascist bastards.
There are some interesting parallels with the economic collapse in Argentina in the late 1990s! From Wikipedia:
As Billy Ray Valentine would say, "now that you've cleaned all the suckers out, it's time to buy dollars". The USD is going straight UP. We're in a traingle, the move to 70 doesn't happen until next year. Frickin' Morons.
They are effed and they know it, this is desperation. I'm sure Greenspan is either laughing his ass off or vomiting his guts out over the horror of it all...
Since they openly dictate Fed policy now, then all hail the dictate of our new masters. The Fed will make it so.
If the dollar depreciates what happens to the cost of the imported fuel? Is that included in this analysis?
Isn't Goldman special!!? The past couple of days they have had all their midgets like Abby Jo and there private equity fund manager out talking up the U.S. market out of one side of their face and now they are talking down the dollar hard on the other side. Just what do you smart morons honestly think will happen to the real value of funds place in U.S. stocks if the dollar tanks hard? Sorry, not a fair question because I included honest.........
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