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Goldman Downgrades The USD

Tyler Durden's picture





 

And just as everyone was starting to bet on the great USD renaissance, here comes Thomas Stolper to spoil the party, by not only refusing to close out his EURUSD trade reco after losing 800 pips in two weeks (and still being profitable), but by actually doubling down: "We have changed our forecasts to project more Dollar weakness." The reason is that the US apparently has a thing called a massive trade deficit that has to be normalized: "Since the last revisions to our forecasts, the Dollar decline has roughly tracked the expected path. Large structural imbalances in the US are highlighted by weakness in the tradable goods sector.The outlook for monetary policy differentials and BBoP trends remains USD-negative. Dollar weakness is common during periods with slowing GLI momentum." The bottom line: "We now see EUR/$ at 1.45, 1.50 and 1.55 in 3, 6 and 12 months, and $/JPY at 82, 82 and 86." Oddly enough, there is no mention of the real reason to position for a USD plunge. (Hint: Hewlett Packard). On the other hand, this may be the time to go balls to the wall long the USD, as it appears that Goldman is doing another USD fundraising campaign courtesy of its clients. Oh, and speaking of Goldman's clients, it's best to baffle them with bullshit. Here is Goldman's Jim O'Neill with a blurb from his Sunday note on why China is going down (among other things): "it seems to me that a bigger risk premia is still necessary for the Euro. I can’t see how it can remain at about 1.40." Yes. From Sunday. If your head didn't go boom yet, that's ok. It will soon enough. And way to cover your bases there Goldman...

From Goldman:

  • We have changed our forecasts to project more Dollar weakness.
  • Since the last revisions to our forecasts, the Dollar decline has roughly tracked the expected path.
  • Large structural imbalances in the US are highlighted by weakness in the tradable goods sector.
  • The outlook for monetary policy differentials and BBoP trends remains USD-negative.
  • Dollar weakness is common during periods with slowing GLI momentum.
  • We now see EUR/$ at 1.45, 1.50 and 1.55 in 3, 6 and 12 months, and $/JPY at 82, 82 and 86.

Since we moved to a more
explicit Dollar weakening path last autumn, FX markets have broadly
followed the expected trajectory. In many cases, the Dollar has now
weakened well beyond our near-term forecasts and the driving forces of
continued gradual depreciation are intact. We review the key arguments
behind our view and focus specifically on Dollar performance in the
context of the global business cycle and the latest
BBoP trends. Our major FX forecasts are revised to reflect continued further USD weakness. 

Dollar Decline To Continue

In a nutshell, the main reason for
broad-based Dollar weakness is the persistence of economic imbalances in
the US. US economic output remains geared towards non-tradable sectors,
while the large current account deficit and the structural decline in
manufacturing employment suggests weakness in tradable goods. This
situation has several Dollar-negative implications:

  • The
    structural current account deficit causes constant external funding
    pressures. For the Dollar to stabilise or even to rally, investors need
    to be convinced of the case for additional long-term investments in the
    US.
  • With unemployment still high, fiscal
    consolidation looming and continued weakness in the real estate sector,
    the growth outlook remains less compelling in the US than in many other
    regions or countries. This makes it even more difficult to fund the
    current account deficit with investment inflows.
  • The cyclical factors discussed in
    the previous point suggest this it is also highly likely that Fed policy
    will remain more accommodative than in most other countries. Interest
    rate differentials will likely remain USD-negative.
  • The case for Dollar depreciation
    will strengthen as fiscal policy becomes increasingly tight in the US.
    The likelihood of early monetary policy tightening would also decline
    with tighter fiscal policy, as highlighted by our US economists.
  • Structural and EM-related upward
    pressures on crude prices add to the imbalances. All else equal, real
    disposable income in the US would decline and, hence, so would domestic
    demand, adding to cyclical headwinds. Moreover, the rising fuel bill
    would increase the nominal trade gap and therefore the external funding
    needs.

None of the above five factors
seems to be changing towards a more Dollar-supportive direction. On the
contrary, there are increasing depreciation risks linked to structural
forces in commodity markets, as well as fiscal consolidation.

Manufacturing, Manufacturing, Manufacturing

Ultimately, it is difficult to
envisage a Dollar-bullish scenario without a notably stronger US
tradable goods sector. This does include to some extent services and
also the primary sector, but the most important by far is manufacturing.

Employment in the US manufacturing
sector has fallen substantially in the last 10 years (see chart) and
this development was likely the result of two forces:

  • First,
    the competition from interest rate sensitive domestic sectors during
    the credit boom in the US, in particular real estate related sectors.
  • Second, aggressive offshoring and
    the relocation of factories to the rest of the world, in particular
    Asia, has led to the disappearance of whole manufacturing industries in
    the US.

There have recently been some
signs of strength in the manufacturing sector, in particular strong ISM
surveys and some persistent hiring in the manufacturing sector. But the
rate of job growth in this sector remains very low compared with the
losses over the last 10 years. From 2001 to the trough of the credit
crisis, US employment in the manufacturing sector has fallen by about
5mn to 11mn, at a rate of about 52,000 per month on average. Since then,
we have seen renewed hiring of about 13,000 per month on average. In
other words, job growth in the US manufacturing sector currently runs at
only 25% of the pace of job destruction seen over the last decade.

This weakness in the manufacturing
sector is also still clearly reflected in the external balance. The real
trade deficit currently runs at about $50bn per month (in 2005
Dollars). Broken down by sectors, auto related and consumer goods
sectors account for about $40bn, again highlighting the weakness in
tradable goods.

In terms of outlook, our US
economists expect a gradual further widening of the real US trade
deficit in terms of GDP, which will likely keep the downside pressures
for the Dollar firmly in place.

Lastly, it is also important not to
mix level and change effects. The Dollar downside pressures will likely
subside only after the external deficits have narrowed substantially. In
practical terms, this means a substantial amount of manufacturing
capacity has to be shifted back to the US, and this is a very slow
process that is typically measured in years rather than quarters.

We are confident this adjustment will
ultimately happen, but in the meantime it may be necessary for the
Dollar to drift lower until relocation to the US becomes a very clear
case. The undervaluation of about 12% relative to our trade-weighted
GSDEER model may therefore become more pronounced in the foreseeable
future.

New Forecasts and Risks

Taken together, the points above
suggest there is still considerable downside potential in the USD. We
therefore are revising our forecasts to reflect this ongoing trend. In
particular, we are now projecting EUR/$ at 1.45, 1.50 and 1.55 in 3, 6
and 12 months. We now see $/JPY at 82, 82 and 86, which, compared with
our previous forecasts, also reflects more broad USD weakness—albeit
within the recent range.

Our views, as outlined across our
macro and market research, remain constructive on Europe. Markets have
long expected some form of liability management for Greece, and so a lot
of bad news is already priced in. That said, reform progress in
systemically important Spain continues at a steady pace. With contagion
effects from the Greek debt debate limited, we think the recent
correction likely represents an opportunity to position for Dollar
weakness versus the Euro.

A number of other forecasts have been
revised accordingly, as highlighted in the table. For specific comments
on individual currencies, please refer to the country pages in this
publication.

As a general feature of this forecast
revision, it is important to highlight once again the difference
between the expected moves relative to the USD versus the much more
muted appreciation on a trade-weighted basis. For example, the Euro is
expected to rally about 9% versus the Dollar over the next 12 months,
but it will only appreciate by 2.4% on a trade-weighted basis. To a
varying degree, this pattern holds for most currencies.

In terms of ‘fair value’, we are
calling for a move deeper into USD undervaluation territory. The new
12-month forecasts imply a Dollar undervaluation on a TWI basis of about
16%-17%, whereas the trade-weighted Euro overvaluation will likely
remain below 10%.

The risks to our USD bearish view are threefold:

  • First,
    a much faster structural rebalancing of the US economy than we
    currently expect would fundamentally change the picture, although the
    hurdle seems very high for this to happen in the near term.
  • Second, a period of broad-based
    asset weakness would likely still translate into Dollar strength given
    the prevailing correlations.
  • Finally, there are still concerns
    about the European sovereign situation. Although not directly a factor
    for the US economy, a substantial deterioration of the sovereign debt
    situation in Europe would support the Dollar, mainly because it would
    weigh on the Euro.

 Anaemic Portfolio Investment in the US

As we stated above, one of the core
reasons behind our Dollar view rests on a Fed that is more dovish than
other central banks. Our official forecast for the first Fed hike is not
until 2013, which is significantly below what the market is currently
pricing. The second important factor behind our Dollar views is the
growing current account deficit and the possible deterioration in
funding inflows. Foreign flows into US assets other than US Treasuries
have remained very weak, possibly affected by the negative returns
following the ‘tech bubble’ until 2000 and the subsequent housing bubble
in 2004/07. To provide a snapshot of this, Table 1 shows Treasury
International Capital (TIC) data on long-term portfolio flows into and
out of the US. It shows average monthly net foreign flows into US
Treasuries (column A), into US agency debt (B), into US corporate debt
(C), and into US equities (D).

During the pre-crisis period, for
which we use 1H2007 as an example, monthly net inflows into US
Treasuries averaged $19bn, inflows into agencies were just shy of $30bn,
into corporate bonds they were an impressive $48bn, and into US
equities they amounted to $24bn, making a total around $117bn on average
per month. That picture has shifted dramatically. On average in 2010,
net foreign flows into Treasuries rose to just shy of $60bn per month,
while net foreign flows into US agency debt were on average only $9bn
per month. Net foreign flows into US corporate debt were down to -$1.1bn
on average in 2010, i.e., an outflow, while flows into US equities were
just $9bn. Net foreign inflows across assets had therefore shrunk to
$76bn on average per month in 2010, from $117bn in 1H2007, and the
composition of inflows has shifted dramatically away from agencies,
corporate debt and equities, towards US Treasuries. Looking at the most
recently released data for March 2011, this shift remains firmly in
place, with foreigners continuing to shy away from US assets other than
Treasuries. Moreover, US investors have recently accelerated purchases
of foreign assets again, with the latest March number hinting at a
sizable outflow of more than $30bn from that source. Net portfolio
inflows therefore remain very weak in general.

There are two additional issues worth
mentioning. First, given the low interest rate environment, we think
that hedge ratios for foreign inflows into US Treasuries are now
relatively high. This means that these inflows are not as
Dollar-positive as a similar inflow into US equities. Second, foreign
official buying (largely by central banks in emerging markets)
constitutes, on our estimates, the bulk of net foreign purchases of US
Treasuries. The official breakout by the TIC data here suggests that—of
the $60bn in foreign net purchases of Treasuries per month in 2010—about
$44bn reflect foreign official buying. This number is likely a lower
bound estimate, since foreign central banks may also be purchasing US
Treasuries through intermediaries. We highlight the importance of
official buying because these purchases are in some sense ‘passive’,
i.e., they reflect the decision by some emerging markets to peg their
currencies to the Dollar. As a result, they mechanically have to buy US
Treasuries to neutralise appreciation pressure on their currencies.
These inflows to the US are therefore not driven necessarily by the same
motives as foreign flows into US equities (such as growth expectations
and/or the profit motive). For both of these reasons, we see the shift
to Treasury purchases by foreigners as a development highlighting the
difficulty in funding the US trade deficit, and in line with our view
for further Dollar weakness.

To highlight the important role that
Treasuries play in funding the US trade deficit, we have compiled the
table above to compare non-Treasuries foreign private (non-official)
inflows (column K, net also of US residents’ flows into foreign assets,
columns F and G) to the monthly pace of the trade deficit (column J).
This comparison shows that while private inflows into non-Treasury
instruments were used to fully fund the US trade deficit in 1H2007, this
is no longer the case currently, as indicated by our ‘private’ basic
balance measure (column L). Indeed, that private basic balance for 2011
year-to-date has been on a deteriorating trend, which is one fundamental
reason why we see the current Dollar rally as temporary, reflecting
risk appetite. On the fundamental flow picture, the outlook remains—in
line with our Fed call—for more Dollar weakness.

Currency Performance During Slowing GLI Momentum

Global industrial activity continues
to expand, but the pace of growth is declining. As we have discussed in
recent research, our Global Leading Indicator (GLI) has exhibited signs
of a slowdown over the last few months. In the last print, our metric of
GLI momentum (3mth rolling % changes on the GLI) fell to 0.43% from
0.47%, with most of the components in the indicator deteriorating on a
monthly basis. This has occurred even though on a yoy basis the GLI
continues to accelerate at a solid pace of 4.5%.

What does this slowdown in GLI momentum mean for FX?

To answer this question, we first
assess how different currencies behave during times of GLI momentum
deceleration. We calculate monthly returns for the most liquid
currencies against the Dollar since January 1999; a sample of about 150
observations overall. We then split our sample into months when the GLI
is losing momentum and months when it is gaining momentum. Finally, for
each currency, we average out the monthly returns for the months that
the GLI momentum is declining relative to the month before. This
subsample consists of 88 observations corresponding to 59% of the full
sample. Comparing average returns across currencies, three key
observations emerge:

  • Overall,
    G3 currencies tend to strengthen during times of declining GLI
    momentum. The USD, EUR and the JPY—as well as the CHF—outperform most
    other currencies. Interestingly, the JPY, CHF and EUR outperform the USD
    on average during times of loss of GLI momentum.
  • Pro-cyclical EM currencies tend to
    underperform as the GLI loses momentum. The BRL, CLP and MXN in Latin
    America, the TRY and ZAR in EMEA, and the IDR and INR in NJA tend to be
    among the worst performers.
  • Interestingly, managed Asian
    currencies such as the MYR, TWD, CNY and SGD tend to remain largely
    unaffected by a slowdown in GLI momentum. Indeed, they have strengthened
    on average vs the USD during those periods. This may well be a spurious
    result given that the most important determinant of these exchange
    rates is policy decisions related to local inflation trends.

Overall, there appears to be a
strong cyclical split between FX out- and underperformers during times
of GLI momentum deceleration. However, it is important to bear in mind
that these results may well be distorted by the fact that periods when
GLI momentum decelerates include contractions in global output. We are
not currently in such a contractionary stage, nor do we expect to be
within our forecast horizon.

Therefore, we refine our sampling
exercise even further to exclude observations during times of recession.
We focus only on times when GLI is losing momentum but global output is
still expanding, much like the phase we are in at the moment. This
limits our sample to a still large set of 75 observations.

Our results are practically the same
but for one key difference: on average, the USD tends to depreciate
against most currencies as the GLI loses momentum but global growth is
still positive.

What does this mean for our FX views?
First, our broad bullish NJA FX bias, which we have expressed through
long CNY, MYR and PHP recommendations, still appears to be justified
despite the slowdown in GLI momentum. Historical data do not suggest
that a deceleration in the pace of global activity growth has a
significant effect on managed NJA currencies.

Second, one needs to be cautious with
respect to pro-cyclical EM currencies and high yielders during periods
of slowing GLI momentum. The Turkish Lira is among these currencies and
exposed to a large current account deficit in addition. Slowing momentum
therefore would support our tactical long EUR/TRY recommendation.

Finally, and most importantly, our
findings reassure us that our overall bearish Dollar stance is not
negatively affected by this slowdown in global activity momentum. On the
contrary, as long as markets do not start to reflect concerns about an
outright decline in global output, historical data of Dollar performance
during similar phases of the global cycle support further our forecast
for USD depreciation.

 


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Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:20 | Link to Comment equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

Well , as loathe as i am to go all in on US toilet paper , this is the time.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:49 | Link to Comment Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Sorry to jump the line but this post is very important. If you follow my blog, you need to take the time to read this:

http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/05/its-finally-over-now-what.html

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:53 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

" Turd's Bottom #2..."

So many ways THAT could go...

We will all be watching, even a gold guy like me!

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:10 | Link to Comment Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Yes, DoChen. Turd's Bottom and #2 go together quite well.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:18 | Link to Comment narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

Looks like we need to switch to bitcoin. I just heard about it, but it sounds promising. Also, it looks like I don't have to "geek out" to use it.

See http://launch.is/blog/l019-bitcoin-p2p-currency-the-most-dangerous-project-weve-ev.html

 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 18:32 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

Weirdly the idea came from World of Warcraft gold farmers, chatted with one of the guys at a Linux Symposium a couple of years ago.  It's a neat concept, they are having problems with getting people to commit to it and the "exchange" hasn't been determined as of yet. How to measure the exchange against something without that "value" behind it.

That a side the security risks behind it are the same as any synthetic currency (fiat):

  • forced inflation,
  • general hacks that would mimic counterfeiting.

 

The idea is sound though but it would run completely contrary to what the Central banks are doing.  First guy that puts up a server would probably be dead the same hour.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 19:57 | Link to Comment narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

Is it digital silver, or digital gold? In that it is a medium of exchange outside the control of the mommy state?

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 21:37 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

It is and it's not.  In 98 the big thing was eGold.  As in the currency in the "bank" was actually backed by gold.  It had a couple of years on it, I remember something scam worthy happening around it and the eGold bank collapsed after buddy got nailed for fucking with his own system and laundering.

http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2009/06/e-gold/

So far when synthetic private, anything fiat wise, is developed it just gets ugly and ends up in the experiment burn pile.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 20:40 | Link to Comment Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

So to make money you need to play Warcraft and Mine gold? From there you can exchange for euros, dollars right?

Thu, 05/19/2011 - 01:02 | Link to Comment Fedophile
Fedophile's picture

 

general hacks that would mimic counterfeiting.


A nearly impossible concerted effort of massive GPU farms effort would be needed to "hack" Bitcoin(BTC), at least with enough competition and there needn't be any material forced inflation either.

For instance, BTC uses cryptographic hashes to record transactions which are gathered into "blocks" and distributed through the BTC P2P network. Peers then add to the block a transaction to pay themselves (this is the incentive for participating and the only source of inflation) an agreed amount of BTC and then signing the transaction block with a SHA256 hash. To prevent cheating the hash must have a predetermined (by the network, on the fly) number of leading zeroes by fiddling with a small fudge factor in the block. This problem is made so hard to solve that even supercomputers couldn't overwhelm the network and pass off fake blocks as real but overall new blocks are made at the rate of every 10min. Transactions are made by signing your BTC over to the counter parties public key with your own and broadcasting the transaction to the network to be signed. 10min later your transaction is written in stone. For more read: http://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf & http://www.bitcoin.org

In it's current form it's just a curious experiment, but there is massive potential as a BTC money system has the following properties:

 

 

There are cons to BTC though it's not because it's fiat, or that you can't print it out of thin air, without colossal P2P CPU effort that is, it's that you sure as hell can fractionally reserve it!

 


Thu, 05/19/2011 - 07:43 | Link to Comment DrunkenMonkey
DrunkenMonkey's picture

You first.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:58 | Link to Comment equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

No apology neeeded , your blog is fantastic.  thanks for the link.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:19 | Link to Comment Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

More Snake oil ... 

Turd 


WEDNESDAY, APRIL 27, 2011
Your Fearless Leader No, not The Bernank. The Turd!

Let's go back over the last four weeks chronologically.

1) In early April, the Turd gives you $45 as a price target by May silver option expiry.
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/04/others-to-watch.html
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/04/greed-vs-fear.html

2) Then, last week, I began to warn you to be careful and to watch for the brief, sharp correction that was coming.
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/04/something-to-consider.html
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/04/easter-sunday-evening.html
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/04/be-cautious.html
The Wicked Witch even chimed in and tried to warn you.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhcFI-vzNXk

3) Then, yesterday, when almost everyone in the media was trying to convince you to sell, The Turd stood alone and tried to reassure you.
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/04/not-for-faint-hearted.html
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/04/fastest-10-ever.html
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/04/tricky-tuesday.html

So now here we are. Back to 1527 and 47.60. Feels good, doesn't it?
If you read all the posts above, then you know by now that we should expect this rally to carry us through next week. Silver will test, and likely best, $50. It may even see $52. Gold, now that it is through 1520, will accelerate toward $1550.
Beginning the week of the 9th, pattern suggests that we should see about a two-week downward consolidation. After that is completed, the table will be set for the wonderful and record-setting opportunity that will be presented to us in June.

 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:57 | Link to Comment XenoFrog
XenoFrog's picture

silver, a girl's best friend.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 18:07 | Link to Comment NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

yes, because everyone can predict what the CME will do, right?

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 18:50 | Link to Comment Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

I hope you don't fail as a JP Morgue troller Smailes.

 

I hear demoted trolls are tasked with the daily cleaning of Blythe's anal glands.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 18:48 | Link to Comment Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

Nah man, go all in on the Iraqi Dinar.... it's going to revalue soon!

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:22 | Link to Comment BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

Race you to the bottom!

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:25 | Link to Comment Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

that's what DSK said...

 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:30 | Link to Comment Drag Racer
Drag Racer's picture

more like the blind leading the blind

http://www.rttnews.com/Content/Policy.aspx?Id=1626759

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 18:38 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

How can the world's biggest debtor help the second biggest debtor?

Easy.

Make more debt.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:25 | Link to Comment Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

this is bullish for stocks....

*puke*

 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:25 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

...in nominal terms.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:46 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Bullish for EVERYTHING!!!

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:22 | Link to Comment bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

I'll take the other end of that trade, thank you very much.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:22 | Link to Comment Ancona
Ancona's picture

Really? No shit Sherlock. When you massively overprint the dollar it can only devalue.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:23 | Link to Comment 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

so, do you take the contrarian trade or the reverse contrarian trade? 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:32 | Link to Comment hambone
hambone's picture

triple dog dare contrarian...

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:23 | Link to Comment doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

Goldman's days are numbered...cant they see what happened to DSK?

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:27 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Long term this is correct.  Short term, I don't even attempt to play "guess the intervention" in the FOREX markets on 10 to 1 leverage.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:34 | Link to Comment bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Try 50:1; 100:1, and 200:1 depending on what your broker approves.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:34 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

No thank you.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:37 | Link to Comment bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

lol 

That's pretty standard trading fx.

It's so easy even a Bernanke can do it.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:25 | Link to Comment cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

The problem with this is it is measured against equally shitty EUR an JYP. Humm which one stinks the worst. I just can't pick em

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:29 | Link to Comment agent default
agent default's picture

With the EU clusterfuck getting worse, I would expect a USD rally in the near term.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:44 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

It's a race to disgrace. I say USD up too....but only because it's criminal network is so much more advanced than the EU. 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:30 | Link to Comment Forgiven
Forgiven's picture

This is actually BEARISH for the Euro - Whatever the squid pukes pump, you sell - that's what they're doing.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:49 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Usually that is true.  The squid selling its part of Molycorp is what kept me from buying MCP at $13 - $14.

That would have been a (the only?) good time to buy squid product.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:31 | Link to Comment FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

Stop wiping your ass with it, buy the USD!

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:34 | Link to Comment hambone
hambone's picture

Sell dollar - sell euro - sell yen -

buy silver...

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:48 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Gold = safety

Silver = nice speculation, bigger gains vs. bigger risks.

Gold for me.

...

O/T, nasty little audio ad...

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:11 | Link to Comment hambone
hambone's picture

Agreed silver v. gold although silver seems the bargain at the moment?

BTW - funny that Silver falls by 30%, falls and holds 50% fib at $34'ish, holds rising channel...and seemingly the love is gone?  It seems now is an excellent time to make my monthly purchase.

Glad to know why I shouldn't push the buy button now and should wait til ?

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 18:01 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

I bought Monday and Tuesday.. not today.. I only buy on down days! lol

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:30 | Link to Comment Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

GS got Dell's earning's correct also, lol.

Not...........

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:29 | Link to Comment Ricardo Pobre
Ricardo Pobre's picture

Somebody care to offer a hint to Tyler's hint about HPQ? 

 

 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:33 | Link to Comment bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

HPQ shit the bed. 

Check price action over the last month.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:44 | Link to Comment 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

HPQ makes printers.  all cb's are feverishly printing money.  means more sales for HPQ. 

ITS A JOKE!

 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:57 | Link to Comment Ricardo Pobre
Ricardo Pobre's picture

It's obvious now.  Thanks. 

 

I thought it had something to do with HPQ getting DSK-ed for -25% the last couple earnings announcements... 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:31 | Link to Comment Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

POMO, POMO, TOGA, TOGA, TOGA

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:39 | Link to Comment razorthin
razorthin's picture

Uh Oh.  Not what a contrarian likes to hear if he's long the equity/commodity market!

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:42 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

It seems as if GS is ignoring the whole Greece and sovereign situation all together. Interestingly, they were quite spot-on with their eur/$ calls the past 6 months from that 1.20s bump last year, but i don't think the sovereigns can be kept under the rug much longer.

Would be interesting to see if their FX teams have the same calls as their Econ research desk. My guess is, its not.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:39 | Link to Comment MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

The very people and organizations who point to "structural imbalances" in the US economy are the ones who caused them in the first place.

Actually fixing our economy would mean the end to the ponzi-fed empire, and they would rather see the rest of us crash and burn first.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:40 | Link to Comment fastishplastic
fastishplastic's picture

so . . . parity? 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:43 | Link to Comment JuicyTheAnimal
JuicyTheAnimal's picture

So I short GLD and SLV.  Tomorrow is deflation day.  Friday is Inflation day.  Monday is Inflation day.  Tuesday is deflation day and so is next Wednesday.  Beyond that I can not predict with certainty. 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:59 | Link to Comment slow_roast
slow_roast's picture

Sadly I believe you and I have no idea why.  :(

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:43 | Link to Comment tickhound
tickhound's picture

Tween the Fed lovers and $ whores, the troll rejuvenation, the mainstream pundits, and the $ bears who have suddenly lost faith in the fundamentals that brought us here... This buy the $ / market collapse trade has not only become crowded, but has got to be as easy, if not easier, than the short the $ trade of qe2.  To boot, this "tightening" pre-announcement / prepare for June 30th trade is just that... WAAAYYYY too obvious and WAAAAYYY too pre-supposed.

Tooo retail investor-ish now.  I look for the big boys to start positioning themselves into this weakness.  I'm going sacrilege... I'm going with Goldman.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:44 | Link to Comment JuicyTheAnimal
JuicyTheAnimal's picture

You think too much.  Just do as I say because I have the wizdom. 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:00 | Link to Comment tickhound
tickhound's picture

Yeah I know... I've been told repeatedly to get back in formation like a good little bitch.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 20:24 | Link to Comment zen0
zen0's picture

Remember that guy in Apocalypse Now that was told to not get off the boat? Not only did he get terrified when he did so, I think he eventually got decapitated.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:53 | Link to Comment Hondo
Hondo's picture

The only way to normalize the trade deficit is to slow imports (and or accelerate exports...but do to the base difference it would take a magnificent effort to make any real headway by exports alone).  The economic impact of slowing imports is slowing demand......but the slower demand of imports would in fact increase the reported GDP even though people would be buying less.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:53 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

This could just be the Goldman front run on QE3. And a psy-ops to make sure that it happens. 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 16:57 | Link to Comment Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

Associated Press: Iran president to chair next OPEC meeting = WTF http://stk.ly/j1ZWpj

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:03 | Link to Comment icm63
icm63's picture

Any analyst that ignores the cycles will have the red pen soved up them ..

 

http://www.readtheticker.com/Pages/Blog1.aspx?65tf=205_cycles-say-the-bears-are-about-to-roar-2011-05

 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:04 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Classic "whop"saw announcement by the PigMen.

Now surely all their biggest hedge funds are totally bewildered and confused.

In fact, many of the commodity-based fund clients got so hammered, many are going to close their doors because it is too hard to catch up.

Just think of the poor fund that was up big, then got slaughtered by a 40% haircut in some silver stocks.

Likely that Goldman will now scrape the carcasses clean of its failed clients, and engage in profiteering and racketerring operations to knock the most people off balance at the most inopportune time.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:20 | Link to Comment Fiat2Zero
Fiat2Zero's picture

Was wondering when you'd get done cleaning your mom's basement.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:04 | Link to Comment Beanie Baby Bubble
Beanie Baby Bubble's picture

Isn't that a bearish yen forecast?

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:06 | Link to Comment GNandGL
GNandGL's picture

Umm, so this is a downgrade of the dollar but they are forecasting USD to rise against JPY.  Huh?

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:08 | Link to Comment buzlightening
buzlightening's picture

Raise the debt limit, finance it with QEIII, and the USDinker dollar is in trouble. Who doesn't know this with 15 states and now mexico looking to legal tender gold/silver. Looks like a race out of the USDinker dollar and into gold/silver currency.  Where else can the USDinker dollar go backed by thin air promises of lying politicians. Dollars been dead most just don't know it.    http://www.constitutionaltender.com/

..............................................

SILVER TO BE MONETIZED THIS YEAR IN MEXICO - Hugo Salinas Price:    http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/King_World_News.html

If you didn't know the USDinker dollar was dead? QEIII should seal the deal.   

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:14 | Link to Comment Luke 21
Luke 21's picture

Possible dollar weakness for a week or so but I certainly would not short the dollar at this stage of the game. There is a good chance the dollar is going to rally huge when the bear market resumes.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:13 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

things weren't bad enuf already, now the GLI has dipped!

the global leading indicator!

why this is baaaad for the dollar?  i have no idea.  especially after reading this.  not to mention the disabilities involved in what i'm smoking, here...

fiat gone wild?  the japanese are now embarassed by the strength of the yen and are trying to talk it down, non-stop. 

i think goldman has received legal advice not to give the impression they even have a book or would know one if they tripped over it. 

now, to reflate the BiChFlation, we must sacrifice the dollar on the altar of truth.  BiCheZ.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:18 | Link to Comment WakeyWakey
WakeyWakey's picture

If everyone should do the opposite to whatever the squid says does this mean they expect the dollar to rise?. Are they lulling everyone into buying more Gold & Silver so they can short it when the Comex ram more margin hikes through to bring down the price of JPM's shorts at the end of the month?

These margin hikes in May have left me confused now.

 

 

 

 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:30 | Link to Comment ivana
ivana's picture

On the other hand, this may be the time to go balls to the wall long the USD, as it appears that Goldman is doing another USD fundraising campaign courtesy of its clients .... bet you're right here Tyler.

IMHO USD will continously go higher whole this year with strong volatility along the way. Deficits doesn't matter cause we'll see trade wars popping up everywhere - which will later prove to be good for local manufacturing

GS are bunch of unbelievable liars. These people are realy scum of human kind

 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:35 | Link to Comment silberblick
silberblick's picture

First Dominique-Strauss Kahn, now Hugo Salinas Price fearful something will happen to him next: http://thesilvergoldhedge.blogspot.com/2011/05/billionaire-hugo-salinas-...

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:43 | Link to Comment SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Whatever GS says, think and do the opposite.  This latest rally in the USD was more than likely the banksters loading up on USD long positions ahead of the real rally yet to come.  Now we see a slight reversal beginning late yesterday and into today and GS drops this report in order to get the sheep to go short the USD.  We'll probably see some more USD weakness to lure more sheep into the slaughter but with the banksters very long the USD (recent run up) and now GS putting out this garbage report, expect a major dollar rally to commence soon although I still think there may be some time before the DXY rally begins in earnest.

Stay nimble my friends.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:50 | Link to Comment Eric Cartman
Eric Cartman's picture

"The case for Dollar depreciation will strengthen as fiscal policy becomes increasingly tight in the US. The likelihood of early monetary policy tightening would also decline with tighter fiscal policy, as highlighted by our US economists."

That makes NO FUCKING SENSE!!!!!! How is this bad for the dollar? Seriously, wtf?

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 17:53 | Link to Comment AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

It's probably best not to take Goldman's recent viewpoint too seriously-- it's better to average the number of risk on vs risk offs they've recommended in the last market cycle to get a guage on what their consensus actually is-- then do the exact opposite as that's what they're doing.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 18:17 | Link to Comment scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

How many dollars have central banks got left to dump? Shitloads, they are already back in with eurusd bids, so they must be in a hurry to get rid. Considering they're timing(i.e they could easily wait for the market to serve up better prices), 1.5 seems conservative. They could also be caught out, unlikely though, and I dont think they do bargain hunting either. For a punt, eurusd is cheap for the upside test of recent highs, worth a risk. Tomorrow should tell, i opened up a small long at 1.425 with stop below 1.419, it will give me something to get up for in the morning.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 19:15 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

It would be so nice if GS would just shut down and disappear. They do not make or manufacture anything, they have not done good for mankind, they have never created anything except pain, all they do is move money and make the rich richer. I mean, 10 million, 30 million is not enough. Gotta have 100 million,when does it stop. Totally useless, deceitful company, and they only care about themselves. Yes some good people will lose jobs, but the world would do just fine if they just go Poof!!

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 19:33 | Link to Comment Lady Heather...UNCLE
Lady Heather...UNCLE's picture

Juicy : "So I short GLD and SLV.  Tomorrow is deflation day.  Friday is Inflation day.  Monday is Inflation day.  Tuesday is deflation day and so is next Wednesday.  Beyond that I can not predict with certainty"

Wash, rinse, repeat???

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 19:57 | Link to Comment silberblick
silberblick's picture

 

Belarus currency crisis and crackdown. Is this what awaits us? Read here:

http://thesilvergoldhedge.blogspot.com/2011/05/belarus-currency-crisis-a...

 

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 20:17 | Link to Comment zen0
zen0's picture

Pardon my ignorance, but who exactly are these GS clients? They are obviously not the Uber smart Joos who run the world, right?

 

 

 

Who are these people being fleeced?

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 20:50 | Link to Comment Peter_Griffin
Peter_Griffin's picture

One nice thing about being poor is I don't have to worry about where to invest my money I don't have.

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 20:58 | Link to Comment PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Yes, Goldman "downgrades USD"..is long euro and hsort dollars..that what it means to me.

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