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Goldman EURUSD Update: "Reasonable Target Is 2006 Cycle Low Of 1.1640"
One day after Goldman revised its EURUSD target lower to 1.18-1.19, a level which was promptly met overnight before the no-volume futures crank job resumed, Jon Pierce is out with a fresh beatdown of the European currency, and America's exporters.
Amid a spate of negative headlines the euro eventually broke out of its frustrating 1.21-1.25 range and subsequently printed a low of 1.1876 in Asia. No doubt sentiment is now very negative and short positions which had been aggressively pared back will have started to rebuild with various downside strategies being implemented. Whilst it is a little concerning that sentiment has swung so uniformly negative again it is hard to argue with the underlying logic and the apparent official European comfort with the level of the euro adds to the reasons to play from the short side; they may become uneasy should the FX move become disorderly or accelerate but a weak euro offers more benefits than problems for them at the moment. So whilst the uniformity of view is concerning, the risks for now still feel weighted to the downside. We are holding a core short position and hoping short squeezes provide the opportunity to sell more close to 1.2000 and above. A stop needs to be left above the 1.2110/50 area which offered multiple lows before breaking. First support emerges at the Asian low of 1.1876 , with 1.1800 likely to attract interest, while a reasonable target is the 2006 cycle low of 1.1640.
Good luck
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Watch EUR go to 1.2110 within 48 hours ( just enough time for the "clients" to establish their short positions with stops at 1.2110). Then as the "clients" cover at 1.2110 - guess who will be selling them Euros to cover their positions?
This is assuming GS has any clients left. At this point, aren't they just a hedge fund, with the backing and funding from the Fed?
Just chortlesnorted coffee out my nose all over the funny pages.
Bastards.
Gold off like a bat out of hell. Not to be hyperbolic or anything.
What's up with that?
If EUR/DOL hits 1.164 then gold has to go to 1060 in EUR. Which is what I calculated would happen saturday. Unless the PM fix in dollar rises another 20. Then it will go to 1076ish eur. Sorry I'm half asleep and floating in the future.
Unless the gold/dollar goes through several more rises. Then the POG in eur will skyrocket. Just flat out pulling a number out of my butt for how much it will rise in dollar to get eur dump to 1.164 could be looking at 1320 gold in dollar and 1134 euro cause whatever is happening is not taking the rickshaw. It's on the bullet train.
Fuck you GS, fuck you and your evil ilk. Go suck on yourselves after you have left humanity dead and buried under the carcass of your overblown weight. Be damned!! 600 Trillion dollar derivatives margin call coming your way when we reach Apocalypse DOW as a result of the fraud and malice your ilk perpetrate.
Could Goldman be right this time?
Beginning in 2004 there was a shift by Asian exporters to shift away from USD pricing to EUR pricing. That tide has now turned and we're back to USD pricing, which will lead to a precipitous fall in EUR demand worldwide.
We all saw what happened to the dollar when they switched away to the EUR. Now we're really going to see what happens to the EUR when they switch back.
We're headed below 1....
Euro to rally, stocks to rise next. Check back again in a week's time.
I still want to know when some Wet Suits hired by GS "clients" including foreign nations will "visit" them...
Don't worry Europe is far from the last, Japan will be getting into this game later after Europe falls. Japan has been fighting the inevitable for 20 years, they will lose the fight just like the fight is always lost. This game was over before it even began.
"that is the sound of inevitability"
Just don't expect a straight line, life generally moves in cycles. Long and medium term the system is toast.
How exactly do these crackheads hatch these predictions?
i know computers in the USA markets can be programmed to follow the EUR/JPY pair......but i cant figure it out ...why the does the INDIAN market follow this pair......
tick by tick...exactly
well ...you see the computers in the "USA markets" are programmed by the kind folks in Bangalore - who can easily do the same for computers in the "India markets". Heheheh - jus kiddin yaar!
i dont think the software professionals are not that good.....funny anyway....but pleas e...someone tell me ...i m new to this whole financial world...how can this happen in a normal auction environment....
OK listen up yaar:
This aint no "normal auction environment". Perhaps you read some finance books? have an MBA? My sympathies - please erase all that nonsense from your brain.
There is only one global "Risk" market . Everything - USA equities, India equities, oil, copper, Indonesian palm oil, malabar curry market - EVERYTHING is on one end of the see-saw called"Risk". There is only one thing that makes the Risk end of the see-saw rise - Dollar liquidity. Look at it this way - say some paisano in San Francisco is running a India Equities Hedge Fund. When he gets scared he sells his India Equities and all the currency exposure to get to Dollars - because he keeps score in Dollars.
Also - i suspect when a certain Mr Bubble Ben gets scared he buys Euros and sells some freshly printed dollars into the market - which raises Dollar liquidity making India Equities etc go up up. On the other side of the Pacific Mr Yen does similar shenanigans.
becoz U C - there be only one purpose for the equity markets - as far as govt bureaucrats are concerned - to manipulate public mood.
Funny as shit, it is just that having worked with these folks, they would not get it right:) But I'll tell you they try hard and one day they will.
Tickerguy Drinks Two Beers -- Apparently he does not drink his own Kool-Aid
My Dear Friends,
Before its all over, and the paper is worthless, there will be one last valiant stand to defend it at the 108 print.
Warmest Regards,
H.
"Whilst?"
1.1640?
How can this crap be taken seriously?
Whilst?
Predicting the Euro with 3 decimal point accuracy.
Impressive.
Hey Goldman how about you do the same for gold?
On second thought, +/- $1000 will do.
They're going to get smoked again.