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Goldman Explains The Imminent Launch Of $1 Trillion In QE 2; Muses On The Dreaded "Double D"
- Ben Bernanke
- Bond
- Core CPI
- CPI
- Discount Window
- Double Dip
- Excess Reserves
- Federal Reserve
- Federal Reserve Bank
- Gross Domestic Product
- Housing Market
- Hyperinflation
- keynesianism
- Main Street
- Monetary Aggregates
- Monetization
- Output Gap
- Personal Consumption
- Personal Saving Rate
- Recession
- recovery
- San Francisco Fed
- Testimony
- Unemployment
Following up on Friday's economic forecast reduction, Goldman's economic team provides an extended analysis validating its dramatic cut to 2011 GDP from 2.5% to 1.9%, and its increase to the unemployment rate from 9.7% to 10.0%. It does so not without a decent bit of gloating: "Our forecast for a significant slowing in the second half of 2010, widely seen as implausible three months ago, is now increasingly accepted." Of course, those reading this blog are fully aware that the fake economic sugar high achieved over the entire past 2 year period is what accountants would consider a non-recurring, one-time item achieved in the face of a deflationary tide, interspersed with ever more desperate attempts by the Fed to stimulate (hyper)inflation. And the closer we get to the imminent realization that as tens of trillions of debt need to be eliminated (and guess what that means for a like amount in underwater equity value) before any form of self-sustaining growth can be achieved, the more likely it becomes that the Fed will commit to the nuclear launch codes which will eventually destroy the US currency, in what many have pegged as hyperinflation for the items we need, and hyperdeflation for the items that nobody really cares about: an outcome which will make the Schrodinger Cat nature of our economy apparent in its final wave function collapse, with the only difference that the US economy is dead in both worlds.
Back to Goldman. The firm is now even more pessimistic on the future than before:
- Lower growth in 2011. We continue to expect real GDP growth to average 1½% (annual rate) in the second half of 2010. However, we have scaled back the anticipated reacceleration in 2011, largely due to heightened congressional resistance to extending fiscal stimulus. Thus, whereas we previously forecasted growth to rise from 2½% in the first quarter to 3½% by the second half, we now look for a more gradual pickup?from 1½% in the first quarter to 3% in the fourth quarter.
- Continued disinflation, but at a slower pace than before. We now expect both the price index for personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy (core PCE index) and the core CPI to slow to a year-to-year rate of ½% by year end 2011; our previous forecasts were ¼% and zero, respectively. Although the growth revision implies a larger output gap over the next 18 months, two other considerations dominate: (a) upward revisions to core PCE inflation announced in the latest annual GDP revisions and (b) signs that disinflation in rents may have ended.
- A return to unconventional monetary easing by late 2010/early 2011. We expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to respond to renewed upward pressure on the unemployment rate with another round of unconventional monetary easing. These measures could involve more asset purchases?probably Treasury securities?and/or a more ironclad commitment to keep the federal funds rate low. If the committee decides on more asset purchases, the amount would be at least $1 trillion (trn).
- A ?baby step? to unconventional easing next week. Although it is a fairly close call, we now expect the FOMC to announce that it will reinvest pay-downs of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the bond market at next Tuesday?s meeting. While this would be a ?baby step? in the direction of renewed unconventional easing, it would probably be packaged as a decision to prevent gradual tightening of the overall policy stance.
The reason for the pessimism is that Goldman continues to see no let-up in the three main headwinds to private sector growth:
- The overhang of unoccupied housing remains near its record high. Until this supply is worked off, it will siphon off a disproportionate share of the net increase in demand for housing, leaving builders with little reason to start new homes. Thus, housing is not providing the cyclical power that it has in past cycles, as shown in Exhibit 3.
- Employers remain cautious in hiring. Throughout this recovery, we have argued that US firms did not reduce payrolls disproportionately relative to real GDP during the recession, and that they would more likely follow the path of the last two ?jobless? recoveries than the more vigorous patterns of earlier cycles. The deeper downturn now reported for real GDP reinforces the first point; Exhibit 4 illustrates the second.
- Consumers appear unlikely to reduce saving materially. One of the most striking elements of the annual GDP revision was the upward revision to the personal saving rate, shown in Exhibit 5. The household financial balance (not shown) was also revised up by a comparable amount. Although this suggests that US households have made more progress in adjusting to lower net worth positions, they are probably still wary of reversing course. If that is correct, then the constraints on income implied by cautious hiring, coupled with the likelihood of more price weakness in a housing market saddled with excess supply, suggest that real consumer spending will remain on a sluggish growth path.
So with all this negativity a "Double D" is inevitable right? Well, no. Goldman will not go that far yet, for these two reasons, the primary one being the much anticipated QE2, which Goldman expects will be announced next week and amount to at least $1 trillion in Treasury purchases:
The FOMC Will Combat with QE2… A key factor in this judgment is this: when push comes to shove the FOMC is likely to act and to do so aggressively. This may sound surprising at first blush, as the minutes to the June FOMC meeting revealed only a small downgrade to the committee?s growth forecast and provided only a fleeting and highly qualified reference to the possibility that renewed easing might be needed. Moreover, Chairman Bernanke largely stuck to the party line at the policy hearings in July, at least in his prepared testimony.
However, in the question-and-answer sessions the chairman did indicate that more Fed easing would be forthcoming if the slowdown persisted to the point of pushing the jobless rate back up. This makes sense given how reliable small increases in the jobless rate have been in signaling recessions. As we have noted many times over the years, since World War II the US economy has never escaped recession once the jobless rate has posted a cumulative increase of more than 0.3 percentage points on a 3-month moving average basis from a fresh low, as shown in Exhibit 6. Although the applicability of this rule in early recovery is unclear, the FOMC can hardly afford to stand by if the jobless rate rises 0.3 points from the current low of 9.57%.
Chairman Bernanke also outlined three possible tools for further easing: (1) to strengthen the commitment to keep short-term rates ?exceptionally low for an extended period;? (2) to cut the interest rate on excess reserves (IOER) from its current 25-basis-point level; and (3) to resume asset purchases. He also said that the FOMC would review all of its options, including the possibility of reinvesting MBS prepayments and redemptions. Currently, these proceeds are not being reinvested, with the result that the Fed?s balance sheet is set to shrink slowly over time. This amounts to a slight tightening bias in the current policy stance, albeit one that may not have much effect given the enormous volume of excess reserves in the system. With the IOER already close to zero, we see little to be gained from cutting it further, other than to signal a switch in policy orientation. The incentive for banks to make new loans would increase only marginally, while money market funds would have a tougher time eking out positive returns as yields on other short-term assets moved even closer to zero. Besides, the FOMC could send the same signal by taking up the MBS reinvestment option. Although it is a close call, we now expect this to occur at next week?s meeting.
Implementation of the "?bigger?" options? - a stronger commitment to keep the federal funds rate near zero and/or more asset purchases? - will require both more discussion and more evidence of economic weakness. Recall in this regard that most FOMC members are starting from a more robust economic outlook than ours; as recently as late June, the committee?s ?central tendency? range for growth in 2010 was 3% to 3½%. These figures would undoubtedly be lower now, but probably not to the point where most members see a double-dip as sufficiently likely to warrant more than a shot across the bow.
The one member who has publicly spoken on these alternatives is James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. In a recent paper, he argued that additional stimulus? -if needed- ?should take the form of purchasing Treasury securities rather than beefing up the rate commitment language, which he sees as potentially counterproductive. Elsewhere we have shown that both have had similar effects in reducing long-term interest rates. However, we think that the FOMC is likely to opt for asset purchases as the more effective way to provide additional stimulus.
This is because most members appear uncomfortable with the type of policy rate commitment needed to push real long-term rates down materially? -for example, one that promises to hold rates low until inflation rises to a certain level. That said, one possibility would be for Chairman Bernanke, after consultation with the FOMC, to speak out publicly about research that shows how the FOMC?s past rate-setting behavior would currently imply a federal funds rate well below zero. By suggesting, even indirectly, how long it would take for this desired funds rate to get back to zero, he could have a meaningful impact on market expectations.
Some of this research is ours, but notably it also includes contributions from the San Francisco Fed.
In the end, the FOMC is more likely to embrace a new asset purchase program?climbing aboard QE2 to help avert a double dip, so to speak?though both are certainly possible. The most likely timing of these larger steps would be late 2010 or early 2011, as the jobless rate approaches 10%. The asset purchases would likely be for Treasury securities, and to have a meaningful effect, total at least $1trn.
As we have long anticipated, QE2 is a certainty as the Fed is now out of all bullets, and can only proceed with the nuclear tactical option. This will once again achieve nothing, and no incremental borrowing will occur by Main Street, but will only double excess reserves held at banks, in the process shooting all risk assets into the stratosphere (merely courtesy of the fact that those who now trade the markets, the primary dealiers, have endless access to zero-cost money via the Fed), making the inflation/deflation debate moot: for everyone who has access to the Fed's discount window and zero-cost capital, assets will explode resulting in inflation for commodities of all types (when the downside is zero, the upside-downside analysis is irrelevant), and likely spilling into all risk assets (stocks), now that the 10 Year is approaching a laughable 2.5%. With the permanent guaranteed bid on the curve courtesy of the madmen at the Fed, look for Treasuries to surge even more, making the inflation-deflation disconnect reach ridiculous levels (but will at least allow the US to monetize its own debt indefinitely and fund its isane budget). The outcome will simply be another round of middle class destruction, as prices for critical items surge (especially those not counted in the core CPI), while all other goods that depend on access to bank credit (housing and other big ticket items) will see their price fall, leading to an acceleration in the inflation-deflation disconnect, as it spills into the real world. We have no doubt now that the end result of this continued monetary insanity will not be the avoidance of a double dip, as Goldman hopes, but a social upheaval which finally overturns the corrupt and criminal status quo.
The other factor that Goldman believes will prevent a double dip is an increase in private-sector spending on durable
goods:
While the prospect of more monetary stimulus certainly helps the case against a double dip, two private-sector considerations also factor into our thinking on this issue. First, purchases of durable goods have already taken a beating as households and businesses have deferred acquisitions of these largely discretionary items. In many cases, activity has fallen close to or below replacement rates. The most obvious example is home building, where starts have fallen to a 600,000 annual rate. While the case for a near-term increase is not good, this starts rate appears to be a frictional low, and it is only about half the trend rate of household formation. Meanwhile, business spending on capital equipment has fallen to the level needed to replace worn-out equipment, as shown in Exhibit 7. The same is likely true for household purchases of motor vehicles.
Second, at some point the headwinds to growth will peter out. The excess supply of empty housing will eventually disappear, businesses will eventually hire more workers as they run out of ways to squeeze more out of the existing work force, and consumers will eventually tire of efforts to boost saving. These points are obviously hard to predict, and not all of them will be reached in 2011. But as the headwinds diminish, real GDP growth can strengthen, aided by policy stimulus. It is on this basis that we forecast a gradual resumption of trend growth in 2011, though with lingering concern that risks still tilt to the downside.
The problem with uniform deleveraging is that as it reverts to the mean, all recent support levels are irrelevant. Simply consider our thought experiment from last week which demonstrated that an inverse reversion to the mean analysis should put the unemployment rate (U-3) not at 9.5% but at 13%, courtesy of the growing population and a trendlining labor force. But of course economists ignore that which is inconvenient in their attempts to goal seek a preferred outcome.
All in all, we are happy with Goldman's capitulation, but of course it is nowhere near enough. With time, Hatzius' team will realize that not only is the double dip not inevitable, but the sugar high has merely been a blip in a continued Double D, as defined by Zero Hedge - Deflationary Depression, which in the process will be accompanied by episodes of massive inflation as the population loses faith in the form of all fiat currency exchange, post continued attempts by the Fed to subvert it, and forcing real price discovery to occur not in traditional monetary aggregates but in new form (or, as the case may be, very old), forms of wealth exchange. The real reasons for the debt monetization, by the way, is that the world is rapidly running out of money to purchase the $10 trillion or so in debt coming up for issuance by the US Treasury over the next 5-10 years: it simply means the Fed is once again starting to monetize the nation's debt, nothing more, nothing less. Luckily, in the painful but now inevitable end, the population will rid itself of the Federal Reserve and of the false economic religion of Keynesianism, but not before the current wealth for 99% of the population, both rich and poor, is wiped out, as it is discovered to have been nothing more than an endlessly diluted subordinate claim on existing hard assets. As for the timing, we will use cite Dmitry Orlov, in saying that it will likely occur in the next 5 years, with a +/- 5 year buffer (more on this later).
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just watched the following from Oct 2009 about the USD future
Robert Fisk on the Gulf 'ditching the dollar' in oil tradehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CBDPGkW6SCU
Good for Goldman but pitiful and shameful behavior on the part of the Fed. To undercut the deleveraging process by individual households is to drive a stake in the heart f the creation of long term wealth and growth capital in our economy. Coupled with the expiration of the Bush tax cuts, the impoverishment of the middle class will be documented in history as one of the most crass acts of wealth confiscation and rendings of the social fabric in the history of our country.
Who gets to write that history?
LeBal,
"Who gets to write that history?"
Not who they think.............
Don't worry. If this report is true, we're nearing the end of the runway. The last QE was for significantly more money, and it only lasted about 6-7 months before that new bubble started deflating.
With the debt so high, they'll get less bang for the buck. $1 Trillion ought to last about 4 months or so, before the QE2 bubble starts deflating. That ought to get us past the mid-terms, and even make Christmas somewhat decent for a large number. After that, it's all downhill again; and they'll try blowing another bubble in about a year (it's the only trick they apparently know).
I doubt the bond market will let them off scot-free at that point. In which case, this party will be over.
I hope you're right. Thanks.
@ Mitch
the Federal Reserve Bank is printing a ton of benjamins but M2 and M3 aren't increasing. the cocksucker banksters are sitting on the extra loot. it's not helping the economy, but it certainly helps their bottom line. the scum Federal Reserve should just send everyone with a pulse a check for $5,000. that's a stimulus that will work. a $1.5 trillion injection that will get spent before the ink dries.
ES,
Why do QE period?.................all it does is sit in Banks.
Unless it get's into Joe 6 Packs hands, they may as well not even do it...
This far, we have 421 Billion from the FIRST bailout still sitting on Bank balance sheets............and the Fed is not making them do a damned thing with it, except pay them interest.
It doesn't quite sit in the Banks; or it didn't last time. Take a look at the Case-Shiller index from 2009 to now. You'll see that it had a direct effect on not only stopping the decline of Housing prices, but it also helped to create a mini-bubble in RE prices, which peaked around November. The Feds were doing everything that they could to stop Housing from collapsing, since it's a big part of the Derivitives market. This also includes propping up Freddie and Fannie though, as well as the MBS, and the Tax Credits last November and April.
The point being is that they did manage to get it somewhat into J6P's hands. But only somewhat, and to a limited effect. Now it's sitting in the Banks.
I agree completely that the most effective way would be to get it directly to J6P. But it's still a losing proposition, because it doesn't solve the problem. Namely, the excess Credit in the system, which needs to destruct. And this is destructing, as you can just see from M3 alone.
QE will not be successful for several reasons; one of them being that the Fed and the mainstream economists simply don't recognize Credit; and this view is especially frightening, since that's the vast majority of the money supply.
The bottom line is that the most the Feds can do is to kick the can down the road a little. The problem is that the end of the road is now in sight.
huh. I didn't know the top 1.5% (making over 250k) were considered middle class.
hmmm. Today we hear this from GS.
(3) to resume asset purchases. He also said that the FOMC would review all of its options, including the possibility of reinvesting MBS prepayments and redemptions. Currently, these proceeds are not being reinvested, with the result that the Fed?s balance sheet is set to shrink slowly over time.
Just this past week we heard this from the WSJ.
Maiden Lane now owns a large amount of relatively safe securities guaranteed by government-sponsored mortgage operators Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Many were bought over the past two years with cash Maiden Lane received from interest and principal payments on assets in the portfolio, and they have helped make up for some of the value declines from soured assets.
http://online.wsj.com/article/NA_WSJ_PUB:SB10001424052748704499604575407...
Looks like the fed may well have decided and implemented a policy of reinvesting income streams from Maiden Lane. I wonder where else in the web of fed and fed member shell corporations the process reportedly in place at Maiden Lane might be transpiring?
Here is a quality income stream from Maiden Lane
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pE3oiKuU8UI
Unexpected unusually uncertain unconventional easing
Could Goldman be right this time?
<Could Goldman be right this time?>
Either Goldman does not know what they are talking about or it is deliberate disinformation.
All Goldman discussions are made in vacuums without any considerations given to real economic processes or to a death of US$ as a reserve currency.
In any case, we are on a verge of a disintegration of US economy and US social fabric. To predict these processes is extremely difficult since the USA does not exit in an international vacuum.
Somebody in ZH must be a nuclear physicist or something w/ the preoccupation of quantum mechanics.
We live in a quantum world, yet operate with a newtonian/cartesian approach.
I appreciate the reference to the real world/ real world view.
The anamists we've managed to mostly kill off understood.
Cheers.
This is the classic novel in which at every turn our heroine has been raped, bilked, coerced, ridiculed, and finally told that what she originally said was the truth was in fact the truth, but she never said it. It was always the rapist's idea to begin with. She never had any value or presented anything of worth. "Why don't you just take your nice medication sweetie? Everything is going to be alright." No wonder she is now mute and screams out when her attorney or any relatives visit, especially if its that touchy feely priest.
I am a big fan of literature and its expression. This is so Dostoevsky, so Solzhenitsyn. Brings a tear to my eye.
you scare me a little, make my heart race and my body shake. but i like your avatar‡
Ben Shalom Bernanke as Raskolnikov and the U.S. economy as the old woman. QE2 as the ax and Tyler Durden as Porfiry Petrovich.
I thought I'd beat Robo to it, the dreaded glorious double D:
http://www.thedialecticalplaya.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/Cleavage1.jpg
Those aren'd Ds my friend. More like triple-Fs. Like 'em anyhow.
pump and hold.
That's inflation I can get behind (or in Front of!)
Hyper-inflation!!
China's Inter-Company Lending Ponzi Dynamics
Another Chinese listed company is in deep financial stress, due to 1.3billion in shark loan debt. An angry mistress reported the corruption of the chairman of Shenzhen International Enterprise (000056) to the Chinese authorities. In 2007, the company shifted its core business from managing department stores to commercial real estate developing. Years ago, one of the mistresses of its chairman began to report his corruption to the authorities. It turns out that he has at least 4 young mistresses, and has sent two of them to study abroad. He is suspected of transferring the listed companies profit to his mistress’s firm.
China's Inter-Company Lending Ponzi Dynamics
If Mr. S's cat is both dead and dead in the box, it's not his cat. This is just a chaotic system about to drop energy levels.
Talk about stealing my thunder...
Quantum leaps occur in an unpredictable manner, or is that "Unusually uncertain?"
I'll have to ask Ziggy about that.
Let's keep it real what QE2 really is....
1) Monetary dilution...(counterfeiting)
2) More debt creation....(debt subtracts from valuation....)
3) Changing what used to be a negated legal accounting value to a legal one ...that offers semantic change although valuation negation is what is really happening....(fraud)...
So in order to improve economics...one negates the financial equation and renames it ?
This is beyond stupidity....
and another attack on property rights. I wonder how pissed off a bunch of retired Indianna police officers are, and remain.
- Ned
This will not happen as the price of oil is the limiting factor (both in the US and the Eurozone). With nobody but financiers having access to money (to bet with) there is no final demand for even +$85 oil much less +$100 oil. The 'risk' game shifts the risk from finance to the real economy in theory, facts suggest otherwise. The unemployed do not buy much gas, much less buy new cars to burn the gas with.
The oil factor is behind Europe's embrace of austerity, to support the euro (and attempt to kill the dollar's residual value). This too appears to work for awhile - temporarily valuable euros can temporarily allow more fuel purchases - but the endgame of depletion is of a piece with that of consumption economies.
The Fed IS out of bullets, they have to live with the consequences. The only real solution is energy conservation.
The 'economic problem' is parked at the end of everyone's driveway.
somebody didn't get the memo-
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/08/robert-rubin-argues-again_n_674772.html
?
More like (__.__) in your case.
I hope RoboTrader stops buy and weighs in on the DD's too. :)
Yeah! I only come up with THESE.
Don't worry about the oversupply in housing, most of the houses built in the last ten years are already falling apart. So, it's all good news.
Hey meng chu like de Smit an Western gun?
I liked it a lot better when we were referred to with the more respectful term 'citizens' rather than 'consumers.' One's a permanent status; the other is a temporary role.
I prefer the more accurate appellation of serf, or "small people" as BP put it.
I'm rather partial to slave, or "dryer lint."
"Consumers appear unlikely to reduce saving materially"
Yeah, but they're not making as much money as before, so those savings only appear large on a percentage basis.
See, I told you all is well.
Even though this will only be $1 trillion of QE2, it's the right and proper straw, that after the last $3.5 trillion or so, will finally break the recession's back.
I bet the Feral orders all the stuff it uses to build the QE Rube Goldberg devices from ACME...anyone got their chart?
No chart, but here is the company CFO with a message.
'coon's killin' me-Ned
This next phase of QE is following the (Solzhenitsyn) script perfectly. Mitchman writes like the destruction of the middle class is an unfortunate side effect (collateral damage?) of the Fed policy; it is not a side effect, it is the primary objective. With the world rapidly approaching its natural Limits to Growth, now is way past the time to start thinking about how to reduce the population to something sustainable. The moneyed elite are merely commandeering all the lifeboats early.
The politicians will not cut SS or Medicare, the dreaded Third Rail of politics, as the elderly are rapidly becoming the largest demographic, and those old coots vote. So the Fed has to arrange an 80% devaluation of the currency within the next 8 to 10 years. 15% inflation per year will do it. The trick is to manage this in such a way that interest rates on sovereign debt stay at zero. Talk about cognitive dissonance! But as long as the Fed is prepared to purchase all the new debt with new money, hey, no problem; we don't have to convince anyone to purchase Treasuries, so the interest rate can stay low. As long as the new money only goes into stocks, commodities, and bonds (exclusively the assets of the moneyed elite), the impoverishment of the middle class can proceed apace. And all the $100T of future government entitlement payments can be made as promised. The money won't buy cat food, but hey, you got your retirement payments as promised.
I tend to agree with Tyler on his summary: this abuse of the dollar will be close to the last straw needed for the collapse of the current kleptocracy. And a gift for the tin foil hat crowd, as every trillion in new fiat adds another $100 to the price of gold.
Thank you Mr. Thomas Malthus! Round of applause everyone!
Hyperinflation, really? People still honestly think that will happen? It is pretty obvious that after all of the massive amounts of stimulus, we are still either on the edge or starting deflation in earnest. I think hyperinflation is practically impossible at this point, unless the QE was ramped well beyond when inflation started picking up pace (which would mean QE ramping for maybe the next 5+ years).
Nobody fucks with the jesus... except the government who nailed his ass to a big hunk of wood.
Once you reach the event horizon of a black hole, ain't nuthin' gonna keep you from goin' in!
Defaltion results in collapse of tax revenues needed to service US debt; debt service not payable in tax receipts will be paid in freshly printed dollars. . . covert at first (as in now) then in time overt and known, causing erosion of faith in currency. . . deflation/depression + overburdened sovereign = recipe for hyperinflation.
QE 2 is already in effect!
Look at the charts of the currencies:
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CURRENCIES&p=d1
Look at the charts of Copper, Wheat, Sugar, any of the grains. Look at US Govt bonds (they are going to break out, if the break-out has not already started)! There may not be any inflation in gold or silver, but look at the rest of the base-staple commidities. If QE2 is not happening already, this is the clear signal that is IS GOING TO HAPPEN!
So how do you reconcile these increases with the increases in the prices of bonds? Is the FED behind all of it?
Real assets appreciate... credit based assets depreciate
I agree that bi-flation is occurring, I'm just curious as to why a paper asset denominated in dollars is a "real asset"... gold, silver, wheat, oil... no problem there...
My money is on bonds winning the argument.
Just plain ugly. That's the only way to describe what's coming round the bend. As Todd Harrison has been saying since at least early 2008, they sold the car crash and bought the cancer. Now we're in the wasting away stage of the terminal cancer and while it will appear at times (for those desperate for any sign what-so-ever) that we're in remission, each subsequent plunge lower will be worse than the last. Have you ever seen someone waste away from cancer or AIDs? Sure you have. Just look around you.
When will we stop acting the role of victim, powerless and without hope, singing our daily song of poor me's and the end is near. How long will we continue to convince ourselves that we're helplessly trapped forever in our favorite abusive relationship as our spouse relentlessly pummels us about our head and starves us to death? That's not a rhetorical question.
How many of us have seen or heard of someone who could walk away, run away, from an abusive relationship yet they don't? Haven't we silently screamed at them to run, now, when he's not looking? Grab the kids and get out of town. Yet she (or he) doesn't. Ever wonder why? Why aren't you and I running away or striking back when our abuser is asleep or at work or distracted? Why is it so easy to recognize other people's insanity and not our own? Oh........that's right. Because we aren't the problem. They, them, those other people are the problem.
When will we stop waiting for someone else, anyone else, to do something, anything, about this miserable situation and take it upon ourselves to do what needs to be done? How long will we put off dealing with the large but short lived pain of reformation and repudiation of our so-called leaders rather than live with our deepening pool of daily pain and misery as we creep ever closer to our own total enslavement?
How many more times will we enter into one more bargain between our abuser and ourselves for a smaller beating today in exchange for the promise of one more gulp of sewer water tomorrow? How many times will we give our abuser another pound of our flesh so that we may keep the rest to give him tomorrow. Will it end when we turn on our parents or our children? We know that's coming next since we've already turned on ourselves.
It could all end tomorrow if we wanted it to. Yes, it's that easy. Though we desperately grasp at endless justifications and rationalizations to explain how it's far more difficult that just saying no more, not ever again, never will I give in again. It could stop here and now, in a month, maybe two. But we lack the moral courage to do what we know can be done. And we sooth the sting that knowledge brings by comforting ourselves with the false belief that we're so small and insignificant we can't make a difference and couldn't even if we tried.
Ahh, that's better. The emotional shame and embarrassment is gone once we drown ourselves in our favorite leisure activity or TV program. Why should I stick my neck out when all it will bring is heartache and pain. Let my neighbor go first, that guy who always talks big, let my congressman or senator do his or her job, those bastards who said they would save me and than don't. Not me, I've gotta take care of myself and my family, even if that just means a slow death for us. At least I took care of my own and myself. That I wasn't a fool who stuck his neck out only to have it chopped off.
Besides, it's gonna collapse by itself anyway, without me lifting a finger. I'll do something once the mess is all arranged in a smoldering stinking pile. Of course, we know that if the collapse really does happen, we'll be so frightened that we'll simply offer another excuse not to get involved, to only take care of me and my own. So I kill the pain of self awareness and understanding of my own self deceit with the new football season and fall TV shows while I convince myself there was nothing I could do about it anyway.
Nice polemic, man, but this ain't an abusive relationship. This is a Cat 5 Hurricane barreling down the pike. You don't shout at storms. You weather them.
This is a Cat 5 Hurricane barreling down the pike. You don't shout at storms. You weather them.
Amen and pass the fuckin ammo.
Agree there is little one can do to prevent what is happening.
Why? Well. Mostly it seems we are waiting around for the November elections. And once those fail Americans will be faced with the option of fighting back with less peaceful means.
And that means not only the electorate against the political class but also against those citizens who are the benefactors of redistribution. People overestimate the banksters. And underestimate the unions.
That fight brings the conflict into our neighborhoods. Our places of worship. Our communities. The very fabric of the USA.
and Saul smiles on the chaos he has begat. Let the fundamental transformation begin. After all, "Barack knows..."
- Ned
A reasonable sentiment for an unreasonable situation - I tend to agree that planning a strategy is preferable to lamenting future unpleasantness. However, I do get suspicious of anyone touting 'moral courage' to do anything. Historically, violent and counterproductive events tend to occur after such pronouncements. Can you offer some specifics to what you refer to as 'sticking one's neck out'? I'm honestly curious.
France circa 1789 is a good example of "sticking one's neck out."
By and large, people get what they deserve. If the result is the inevitable Apocalypse so be it - we all have to die sometime. I would only feel bad for my immediate family. Everyone else at best is just an acquaintance.
I'm sorry for your struggle, CD. I feel it every day, too. But the more I shout it from the rooftops the more discouraged I feel. EVERYONE I talk to says the same thing: I can't dispute what you've presented, but what am I supposed to do in the face of such a juggernaut? No one wants to be involved in the new Boston Massacre. America inspires massive pathos these days. Whatever happened to self-determination and pulling yourself up by your bootstraps? When I read the Bill of Rights and the Constitution I want to cry. It sucks to have such love and such hate for your homeland simultaneously. Cognitive dissonance indeed...
I appreciate your empathy but I am not struggling at all, though I am sad at times as I watch this runaway train gain speed.
I'm personally sticking my neck out and I've been very proactive as a local activist for 7 years and less active for 12 years before that. I'm making a difference, however small, in my local community. This, in my opinion, is where it all starts and ends.
Being active, making a difference, is very rewarding and personally beneficial from an emotional and spiritual (not religious) level. The key to success is my real (honest) reasons for being active. It wasn't always this way with me. When I first started nearly 20 years ago, I thought I could change the world and help save my fellow man. Of course I couldn't and it only led to heartache and burn out.
After those first 12 years, I stopped for 6 months and reexamined what and why I was trying to do. Once I realized that my priorities were wrong, that I was secretly expecting something for my effort (recognition, thanks, honors, to be the hero, to be wanted and appreciated, etc) I began again from a different perspective.
For the past 7 years I've been even more active and I now work to satisfy my genuine desire to help, not to "make" things better or "fix" other people/situations or to have my ego boosted. Interestingly, I've since found that I'm more trusted and effective than I've ever been before.
Thank you for the honest reply. It means more to me than you know.
Oh, with all that I've done wrong I must have
done something right.
To deserve your love every morning and butterfly
kisses-I couldn't ask God for more, man this is what love is.
I know I gotta let it go, but I'll always remember
every hug in the morning and butterfly kisses.
talk about feminizing men talk, you get the prize scrat her.
Poverty is the biggest strongest jail that the government ever built
So we go paralyzed by the lie of socialized violence
And while American culture seeds stagnation with its guilt our
Society is the lie we define with our silence
i'm sick of this room and i'm sick of you i won't ever break there's only two of you there's two of me too you can't ever win why won't you die i've got something on you there's nothing you can do i know where the knives are lock me inside but i'll find my way back to where i live
U kind of scare me a little, too.
It seems U scare easy. :>)
May I suggest that U have not been around here long enough to have read many of my contributing articles nor daily posts to understand who I am or what I've written about in the past. I hope U stick around long enough to read some of my past and future articles and my daily posts in order that we may get to know each other better. Welcome to ZH.
CD , i betcha thats velobabe.
You might be correct.
Nice you see you haunting ZH this Sunday afternoon merehuman.
more than human, but less then the human parts, indeed i may be a ghost. I live in the twilight zone, in the world but not of it.
Many of us now have a diminished profile, our voices are not heard.
We are disenfranchised, stripped of our possessions and dreams in fear of losing the future we have already sold.
Glad i never had credit. I owe 400 to sears i could pay off tommorrow, but i am in no hurry.
CD or any of you... I was always mellow, but now this last year between closing the biz,becoming a farmer and the world gone to hell i have slowed down hugely. I usually strive to accomplish.
Now the prevailing mood is that its pointless.I planted the garden out of responsibility and even then felt it a lost cause. At the time i did not understand why I felt that way. Now I do. 2012 is becoming more real every day and 1984 as well. Twilight zone indeed
your right on every thing. it is difficult for me to read your writings. little painful, i like to keep it light, it works for me. don't do heavy, not mentally prepared, just yet. hell my daughter keeps telling me to rent F I G H T C L U B , can't for a couple of reasons. scare easily, fact. just printed and learned about
e m o t i c o n s ‡
D: :*( T.T <3 <333 \ , , / v.v (this one is my favorite) ;-)
plus i have difficulties with your avatar name. doesn't pronounce easily for me.
Many fellow ZHer's shorten my ID down to something like "CD" or "Cog Dis" or even "narcissistic naval gazing self centered ass hole".
Whatever works for you is fine. :>)
resident head shrink, too, i read.
scared all things D O C T O R S, especially the ones i have to lay down on a couch and spill the beans.
but maybe, you can help me get over this hurdle.
go d e e p. might hurt. do you want to hurt or help me via your writings? thanks for info in advance, preparation we call it some times. if you couldn't tell, i have what they call attention disorder and your pieces are L O N G g g g g.
navel gazing, self centered.....
you paint well
H A R R Y from Oregon?
Rapunzel, sigh.
or, maybe when CD is doing serious soul searching, it is sigh, sigh, sigh, sigh. ;-)
- Ned
And precisely what, pray tell, "needs to be done?" Most of the solutions I can think of involve lead and lots of it!
What "needs to be done" is an intensely personal decision and not something anyone can tell you. I will say this. If I think I'm all alone and that I must do something now, immediately, to make a change, then thoughts of violence and "lead" will inevitably come to mind.
If on the other hand I feel I'm part of a bigger movement, just one gear in a huge machine, then walking the streets talking to strangers about our problems or working in a crisis center and women's shelter or with the homeless or in your local library or whatever moves you to reach out and stretch beyond your comfort zone might be what "needs to be done".
If we were all to stretch just a little beyond our own personal comfort zone once a day, this would all be over in a few months. We have been, and continue to be, conditioned and trained to be passive and meek. The cure is to summon our internal courage and step out a little more each day, to counter our conditioning. This is the way to break free in my opinion. It has an exponential effect, but it must start with each of us on an extremely personal level.
This is where the "consumer" starts "shooting back".
Theft of another Trillion dollars from the "next generation" to merely keep a static condition on a leaky lifeboat will not fly and the shooting war will start. There is a problem with the "disconnect" between the corporacrats, and the politicrats and the "real people".
This is why we have guns. To recoup the stolen welath of a nation and a generation from greedy thieves.
I am done with the so called "American Corporations" and have "chosen my side". When QE 2.0 starts, so does the 3rd American Revolution. These guys in charge of this economy are so FOS and such big liars it is truly nuts that they think the rest of us are so stupid to not see through this "3 card Monty"?
USA has no Foreign policy, no economic policy, and no energy policy. We have politicians and "economists" out the ass, but can't seem to get any movement on what is best for the country or the economy. This is not that damn difficult.
Time to "shoot the bad guys"?
The very atmosphere of firearms anywhere and everywhere restrains evil interference - they deserve a place of honor with all that's good.
George Washington
makes a lot of sense! how come nobody thought of that before!!!!! all the problems of the u.s. will be solved with .... guns! that IS a very creative, novel, original, innovative, fresh, new-fangled solution! the true invention of a new cultural paradigm. greeting! greetings! bravo! halletluyah! halletluyah!
If I lived in a country where the elected were beyond the pale like our "establishment", I would have lots of guns. The tree of liberty and the blood of patriots and all that you know.
Time to "shoot the bad guys"?
We'll have to address that in about 12 weeks?
you would be surprised how people will just ignore it. Nobody cares about anything or anybody else besides themselves anymore.
The gov will serve the pill and everybody will reach for the glass of water as they already know the drill.
And for those that would protest, there are also banana's to help them swallow the pill without knowing.
You guys are lucky, in Canada its suppositories without warning. And those aint bananas to help 'swallow' the pill. Needless to say 'knowing the drill' also has a somewhat different meaning, to a drillee.
Not to mention the pills "doctors" have been feeding us for awhile now. Oh, you think life is shitty? There clearly is something wrong with your brain chemistry; here take this and suddenly TV will seem ok... Science is the new religion. Take it from a frontline scientist.
methylphenidate for children and cognitive behavioral therapy for adults, panacea! panacea!
self pleasure for the "other" species, you know the cold blooded ones. works, honest.
Ritalin is the least worry. Believe me, I'm deep in the population pacification business. Take a peek at the skyrocketing rates of schizophrenia and bipolar medication useage... Whatever you do don't tell your physician you are angry or twitchy or fuck, anything really. Have faith, peasant: take this pill and ye shall be saved. Thanks for nothing, asshole. To the man who only has a hammer, all the world appears as a nail.
This is not a fault with the regular folks, it's a reflexive response. It's not a bad thing. Look at the example that was set with the bank bailouts -- selfish and ego-centric. It can be anthropomorphic by looking at the TBTF institutions as persons.
Sudden debt, ..and they will come to each our houses in mass and take OUR GUNS one by one. Outnumbered we will be , and so there goes that crazy hope. besides, watcha gonna shoot..the building?
have you a helicopter? Unlimited power? It will have to fall from within, we can help it do that and you financial fellas ought to have a thought on that. Or do you REALLY expect the SHEEP to save you?
The most unwise request someone would ever propose to me is that I disarm myself; become defenseless. If they intend to use force to do so they will get a bullet in the face. Guard with jealous attention the public liberty.
wall street is going to take care of goldman. they simply cannot continue as an economic engine and allow its continued existence. with trading drying up, ipos flopping, the carry trade a disaster, no lending and interest rates fast approaching zero there simply is no role for the soul-less. that is what i mean when i say "the devil get's his due." he's coming for Goldman in the form of a "banking system." in the meantime watch for AIG bonds which a guy named Bill Gross purchase en masse to soar in value.
prices will only "soar" 5 to 10% of the price is these are not overpriced as is. Meaning, the prices might not even blink.
I do think QE2 could work if they do asset purchases. For now this is done mostly by the big banks and if they don't need to buy these assets, that money will be just laying arround. You can do that for 1 year, maybe 2. But after that the banks need to put that money to work because otherwise that money is beginning to cost money. The money laying in the banks isn't the banks money. It's money from people. People expecting a return.
The biggest victim will be the middle east and the entire green belt of America.
I beg to differ. The problem is not available cash to lend. The problem is businesses are not willing to borrow absent a compelling economic reason to do so. That is what is going on in Middle America. Little spots here and there of prosperity, the rest stuck in nuetral. QE2 will do nothing but what QE 1 did, enrich the waelthy banksters and enable their specualtion games. QE1 had little to do with any upturn we experienced- that was the real economy twitching and moving, but finding it is still stuck. Simple as that.
And the money in banks available to lend is manufactured by the Fed - it is swept into existence when credit is extended. It is not "deposits" that are being lent out.
Unless and until the Big Banks take ALL WRITEDOWNS, and Auction off ALL BAD DEBTS including residential and commercial RE (which will cause them to go belly-up, and their bondholders to do jump off the respected banks building's roof) all those stimuli, mortgage foregiveness, low rates, QEs and other measures are meaningless. In the short term (0-6 months) they will cause stock bubble, in the intermediate term (6-18 months) - continued slow bleeding, mild deflation and small rise in unemployment, but in the long term (18 months - 10 years) will cause a sovereign debt bubble collapse, a GDP drop far greater than one in 2008, and dept REPUDIATION: peopel will stop paying on their obligations! That will totally unhinge the Fed, that will go into conscious hyper-inflation mode, which,a s we knwo, will cause a total breakdown of the society as we knwo it (Russia 1917-18, Germany 1923 two prime examples)
But we all know that Banks will not write down bad debts, that sovereign debt level will continue its parabollical growth, and that QE 2.0, 3.0, and 4.0 are coming, until some terrorist (who in 20 years would be called a Patriot and would be featured on the new 100 dollar bill) flies a plane into the Fed. Res. building.
Funny how its only the bankers that are screaming and chucking the toys out of the pram for more QE just at a time when their trading profits in their markets divisions (FI, currencies etc) have taken a dramatic slide.
You don't need QE with the S&P at 1100+. And if you actually read the minutes of the previous few meetings theres been more talk of policy withdrawal than anything else.
But clearly the insiders have got the call which explains the sudden turnaround from bearishness to bullishness by guys like biggs and gartman etc.
What a rigged market. Free markets my arse.....just about the only thing left missing now is the uprising and revolution.
I'm fucking tired of hearing about how screwed the Middle class is. How much money do you think the middle class has? I'm in the Middle class and I not worried. I hope they take half my 25,000 salary. Do you really think it's just the middle class that's fucked? It's a huge shit sandwich and were all gonna have to take a bite including the ones who think their shit donk stink. Lube up boys, it's gonna hurt and possibly bleed upon entry.
I hope you have a strong back and enjoy the crack of the whip. Best of luck to you.
I'm ready. How's about you? I got my $29,000 salary all ready for the Banks to do what they please. How's about you? I figure they will take about $190 out of my $ 300 paycheck, if I still have a job. Either way, I don't give a fuck. I'm better off without a job.
I hope you find kind benefactors...
PS, did you get a raise since last time you posted? If so, congratulations! Maybe you don't need to quit yet!
".... until some terrorist (who in 20 years would be called a Patriot and would be featured on the new 100 dollar bill) flies a plane into the Fed. Res. building."
That is what I am talking about. The people are now only have the outlet of "violence". Their "rights" are not equal and are only endowed the the "Creator Blankfiend" and Bernake. If I were any of these idiots on CNBS, in the Economic Team (maybe the reason Romer quit), Political Office, or CEO of the banksters (GS, JPM, C, etc.) I would invest my wardrobe allownace not in $2000 suits, but two layers of body amour. These people are gonna reap what they sow. You just cannot rip off 300,000,000 people and the next generation and not have some blowback or resistance. It is simply not possible and history shows this is a constant in human history. The same history that our Declaration of Independence makes REAL:
"That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, — That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security"
Governments are about "MEN" not "Corporations".
Welcome to the Revolution!
Observation: A lot of folks are quick to advocate violence - as Everyman quips is the "only" option...but no one is as apt to name names of their targets. I detect some macho chest beating here.
We are all frustrated with the state of things. That is why we are here - however, not all of us are in the "revolution" crowd. You want some violence that will shake things up? Where's your plan for when the dust settles? This is reactionary behaviour - not well thought out.
Some would say, "well, the Feds are reading this...I can't name names" I say shit or get off the pot. If you are going as far as to advocate violence against public figures - might as well follow through.
I'd personally like to see a list of names - many of those responsible for this economic crisis have been discussed here. They should be subject to unprecedented amounts of public pressure. As to what form this "pressure" could take (short of killing) I'm all ears.
As usual, junk all you want. I'm just trying to add a reasonable voice to this conversation. My thought is that rationality is still a useful tool even in the most trying of circumstances. If others have left that behind - too bad.
I am not "advocating" this, but I stated, and you ignored, the reference to history. Human history has always had violent responses to tyrants, and some have been quelled. My point was that there are a lot of people on the verge of "losing everything", and they have therefore in their minds "nothing to lose". That is a very dangerous person.
My voice was "reasonable" in the context of history and the outright 'generationsal Theft" that is going on in this country to fatten the wallets of corporate bosses and political bosses.
I think YOU need to re-evaluate your response, and a "sit on your hands" person that is happy with the status quo. Voting is as rigged as is the stock market.
I don't "want the violence", but YOU again are putting words in my mouth, the "violence will happen" on it's own.
I wil not lose any tears about those fallen by their rage. Serves the Stupiod Upper class corruptocrats right. The are going to reap what they sow.
We have 18-29 year olds UE rate at 29%! We have our real UE at 16%.
How much more are going to have to lose to satisfy those that want "no violence"?
Simply put those that do not want the "violence" are the ones that it will be visited upon.
Tough, you should have acted differently rather than trying to rip the taxpayers and the rest of the next generation off to cover their stupid, corrupt and greedy mistakes.
As I said, PICK YOU SIDE!
you are, of course, correct. We can only start at the ballot box this November and hope we get some change and if that doesn't work, we go back to the ballot box and keep trying until it does. But my suspicion is that the best chance we have is to have an external force like a market shock force everyone's hand into some real change. I think that is what a lot of the folks here at ZH are hoping for and thus, their frustration at the market manipulation that the PTB have been getting away with for these past two years.
I would rather have this at the ballot box. I would also rather hae this economy be allowed to right itself because all this QE and all the rest is just stealing form the Next Generation. I am sure that there is going to be an "event" that will blow the doors off and make these itiots in charge of the so called economic policy to resign and put in new people.
But that ain't happening. And the economy is getting worse. And they are continuly sking for more money to do the same damn stupid things that did not work last time. How many times are we gonna "bailout" these greedy over risky so called "investors" that came up with these illegal CDOs/MBS/ CDS that started this whole mess? And then give these assholes more money for bonuses??
Do you think the man that has lost his house, lost the investment fo his daughter to go to college, and has lost his job is gonna let "bygones be bygones" when another multi-millionaire CEO gets a multi million dollar bonus at the expense of a bailout????
DO YOU THINK THAT IS OK IN THAT PERSON'S MIND????????????????
I couldn't agree with you more. And I can understand (although I don't want to waste time going down that route) the rage of someone who has lost everything watching these greedy TBTF assholes and their enablers cashing in while so much of the rest of the country is suffering. That's why, despite what we can hope for at the ballot box, I pray for the bond vigilantes to show up and show up soon. I think they are the only ones hat can save us and put an end to this kleptocracy. I don't wish ill to the rest of my fellow Americans but I do hate the kleptocracy and have absolutely no hope that with an overhaul of the CONgress, a leadership that includes a hack like John Boehner has much chance of doing anything constructive for anyone.
You keep speaking of the ballot box. Do you really believe any politician out there, repub or dem, is not bought and paid for?
Sigh. I never invalidated your reason to be pissed. I just asked for some rationality in your plan for what you are going to do about it. Sorry to pick on you -- but as a long time reader of ZH, I see way too much chest thumping and not enough strategizing when the conversation progresses beyond market technicals.
In response, you put words in my mouth. I'm not "sitting on my hands" - I'm taking my own course of action, as a researcher and an educator...but I don't feel the need to prove that to you.
I am glad to see you started talking about the ballot box instead of the gun. You have more faith than me in that department. Frankly, I'm tired of electoral disappointments - I'm all for looking to "alternative" methods of political pressure at this stage of the game.
+1
I mean this in a sincere way and only use vulgarity to emphasize my point: You've only been a "member" of this community for just under two weeks; you smell rotten; shut the fuck up.
Ballot box: useless
Jury box: useless
Ammo box: next
You want names? You want a plan? You want it all spelled out for you in cyberspace? You want rationality?
There are no alternative methods. Go ahead and serve cookies at your powerpoint presentations, hand out your business card, talk about "real change" and hope for the future. This ship is going down. The Federal gov't has reached a tyrannical tipping point. Anyone marching on DC is a fool. The only chance for survival is to prepare local communities for the coming storm. If force is initiated against me or anyone in my community they will be met with whatever force is necessary to stop and repel them. Got it? Can I be anymore clear?
Am I harshing your mellow, "Waterwings"? good.
You can take your petty attempt at seniority and shove it. I was commenting on this site before there were membership rules. The reason you haven't seen me more is because mostly I stand aside and let idiots like you open your mouth and remove all doubt.
Just like anyone else, I'm interested in discussion - not some simplistic fast track to the "what should we all do?" zone. All you are interested in is painting me a certain way - perhaps in response to contradicting your flimsy worldview?
You don't know me any more than I know you, except by comments here..and you look ignorant for having any presumptions.
I, on the other hand, can form some presumptions about you - your quote: "If force is initiated against me or anyone in my community they will be met with whatever force is necessary to stop and repel them. Got it? Can I be anymore clear?"
-- this is exactly the kind of macho bullshit I've been commenting on lately. Most of us who are in a position to use force to defend ourselves don't need to constantly come out and actualize the course of action we are going to take. This is usually code for someone who feels helpless, and in reality, is violent and unreliable.
Who is "them"? Do you really know who you are most threatened by?
Sorry if doubting the sincerity of your desire for justice is putting a bug up your ass. Maybe you should think a little more about what the effect of your actions might be - rather than just being REactionary. Maybe thats why a discussion about strategy bothers you..because it takes some analysis - not just reaction.
Rethuglican or Demoncrat - no difference. How can the ballot box help?
To Manic"
YOU do not get it and are one of the "sufferables" the DoI waas referring to:
"...and accordingly all experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed."
meh. Your command of late 18th c. history is as poor as your spelling.
There were about 2.5 million people in the 13 colonies around the time of the American Revolution
Over a quarter of these individuals were slaves with no say in the political situation
Another 15-20% were loyalists - the so called "sufferables"
Of that roughly other "half" of the population (1.25 million) supported the revolution, right?
Wrong. The American revolutionary army itself never had more than about 90,000 individuals in it. Even if you were to count 5 strong suporters for each of those fighting, you wouldn't even account for half of the remaining number of citizens that cared which side won in what was viewed at the time as a war between aristrocrats, of which most of said population was decidedly NOT from that group. Hence, a lot more "sufferables" to account for. Yes, the DoI was meant to rally people from that group to the cause of the American revolution - but it wasn't that successful. Alternatively, the DoI was just as important (if not more so) to the financiers in France who needed reassurance to continue funding the revolutionaries.
What is the subtext of this comment? Everyman's absolutist thinking of lumping people into allies or enemies has little historical merit.
Now, howabout instead of continuing to be butthurt for getting called out on writing violent checks you can't cash, work together to come up with some reasonable solutions on how to expose, isolate, and neutralize your economic enemies. When you're done with teabagger-esque platitudes, I'll be here to have a serious conversation.
"When you're done with teabagger-esque platitudes, I'll be here to have a serious conversation."
"Teebaggers"? Apparently YOU have already chosen sides and are a complete loser.
You should just crawl back into your hole you limp wrist yellow spined person.
Where is your backbone man?
You know, you are absolutely right there Everyman.
My comparison of your simplistic quoting of the Declaration of Independence without any historical context in response to a debate about complex, modern economic/political problems is nothing like Teabagger rallies I've witnessed. Nope - nothing at all. Oh yeah - and none of them, when cornered, respond with myopic and uninteresting name calling...never seen them do that, either. In fact, while we're on the subject - I've also never seen a Bagger latch on to some sort of rhetorical device or statement while ignoring the remainder of an entire conversation or debate. Nope. Never seen that either.
<sarcasm off>
lmao
AMEN!
Short termism has destroyed the value of cash,short termism has destroyed the job market,short termism is destroying communities and wealth along with quick profits.Once you destroy the fundamentals that made your economy and currency great you gradually destroy the society you live in and inhabit.Every move for maybe the last 40 years has exhibited short termism saying that society could not afford this that and the other and now the real cost of not paying higher original cost is coming home to roost.Funny how record amounts of cash are always found for a war ............
One thing I'll say about QE 2.0: given its track record, if the US government is buying, you almost certainly want to be selling.
So, what's the end game when the Fed owns every piece of real-estate related paper in the US and there's still no velocity of money?
Zack
Weimar result was that landed individuals came through. Some other results with the current crew's background in mind are frightening, as you allude.
- Ned
Then the FED collapses and the wealth gap is put to its best use, picking up said paper for pennies on the dollar and, shortly thereafter, humping the locals into submission.
Nonperforming assets are nonperforming assets regardless of their home... same thing will happen to the GSEs (depending on what the FED can dump on them in the meantime).
This is beyond ridiculous. I would understand if helicopter Ben decides to give 1 trillion divided the american population to every citizen to spend (mos likely in chinese imports) to stimulate the economy.
But giving it to the banks by buying overpriced paper assets in the hope that (5 TBTF banks) will use it for something remotely useful is not idiotic it is so trashily corrupt that is beyond words
With Political correctness and the thought cleansing of everyone who shows an opinion or openly disagree,s,we head into a world where identity,ancestry,culture, and every other thing that makes us individual,different,culturally diverse, and planet earth a place of contrast is being outlawed by authorities who feel that everything has to be regulated and covered by laws,rules and regulations.As Governments and world wide super organisations impose their control more and more,very often unchallenged and thoroughly undemocratic the quality of life and wealth declines.Patriots are needed now more than ever to stop the crime of the millenium.Rules are made to protect power,privilege and wealth from those who have none.
Say Misean, Malthus here again. Since you were so quick to dismiss my comment about the coming resource wars, perhaps you would like to share with us your theory about what is driving the current surge of corporatism, with its massive accumulation of wealth by the tiny minority of the moneyed elite. Capitalism had its day in the sun, and it provided a huge boost in the standard of living for the developed countries, but it is pretty clear to me that there is not going to be enough oil for 6 billion Chinese to all drive Mercedes. At some point the elite realized that continuous growth is not a workable plan, and the current dismantling of the welfare state would appear to be the first casualty of the new world paradigm.
Talk of death is easy. How many people have you shot? I will never kill again unless the threat is directly attacking me and mine. After you see the person you shot die come and talk of violence against the state.
Which would you prefer: the slow death from a thousand cuts or the quick 7.62x39 to the cranium?
doom, I'll take the slow death every time. would give me time to a) work for a way out, b) take care of some who don't quite understand, and c) queue up the list of bastards who won't be down for breakfast.
Life is hard.
- Ned
Hehe, thanks for the perspective.
Any chance of being offered burning at the stake or keel hauling?
Nope, just the blood eagle: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blood_eagle
Wait a fucking minute....
The Fed is going to attack the high rate of joblessness by buying more MBS? How the fuck does that help the unemployed?
These guys have no idea how close they are to hanging from the lamp posts do they?
YOU get it. People are going to start getting pissed, and those that want "no violence" as I said are the one screwing everyone.
I agree with your sentiment, but without fail the guy advocating violence is the undercover FBI agent. See Ruby Ridge, the Miami "bombers", WTC 1.0, etc...
doom-
er... if you say "without fail" then I need only one counter example (although there are thousands).
Try Bill Ayres on NYT front page, 9/11/2001, "we didn't do enough bombing." And you contend that KSM in WTC bombing 1.0 was FBI? Was undercover? That's two.
- Ned
Recanted. Let's say more often than not, instead of without fail. Thanks for the dose of reality I so often don't get from daily life...
we test reality. Mostly, it tests us. - Ned
Ned I'm gonna have to steal that.
smack in the face-kinda' like, well, first rule - Ned
Goldman speculation, very unremarkable. Goldman's premise; The FEDs priority is the US economy, this is pure mainstream media crap.The FED's priority is to support Goldman.
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It must be clear to ZH regulars that the FED "tools" do not directly address the economic challenges. They are economically indirect, and as we have seen over the past two years, seem to be based on acedemic economic theory, until you follow the money. Then the FEDs actions are clear, support the BHCs and member banks, which they have been very effective at. Moving from insolvency to record profits. Mission accomplished!
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The talk about the MBS is that they could reinvest proceeds instead of letting them fall off the books. I am amazed at how wall street FED supporters frame the concept of FED MBS investments, as if they were US Treasuries in terms of face value. Really unbelievable.
We know the FED is taking huge losses on these investments.
So we ask, what is left to reinvest?
And if we cannot see their books, how would anyone tell the difference between reinvestment based on preceeds and money creation?
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The actions put forth are either rates or liquidity. The FED is addressing both. But we ask to what effect? Obviously, the financial sector benefitted. The FED has been very effective in what it directly manages, member banks.
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In the context of stimulus, more importantly, we must ask why has it been so ineffective as a private sector catalyst? We are in mid-stream for ARRA and numerous other mini-stimulus. Why is GDP only government spending?
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Perhaps the point is reached when the system no longer can support itself. The first leading indicator, loss of confidence.
Mark Beck
For my money the best barroom brawl since the start of the crisis.
rwww.youtube.com/watch?v=Eq2_L9x-6GQ
Hendry is great entertainment but I believe he is a creature of the Bank of England sent forth into Bearland to sow confusion in the hearts of the brave and the free