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Goldman Finds That QE2 Is Now Mostly Priced In

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Thu, 10/07/2010 - 23:21 | 634359 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Oligarchy, bitchez.

they run things; we don't.

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 02:26 | 634539 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

Then again, there are those who will say that using QE1 as a framework for any comparative efforts is useless, as QE1 had little to no effect.

The opposite appears to be true. Just the pure rumor of QE2 sent expected inflation up by a massive 0.5% in September:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?h=200&w=280&range=1y&type=gp_line&cf...

A similar thing happened with QE1 - it has massive effects both on bonds and on the dollar - directly improving the global competitiveness of the US.

Even if we ignored all non-ZH data, given that back in the days ZH predicted imminent gloom and doom, EUR/USD parity, hyperinflation and a collapse (or nationalization) of banks, QE and the stimulus must have had some effect, right?

Furthermore, given the historic fact that advanced economies experiencing deflation also experienced crippling levels of unemployment:

http://modeledbehavior.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/phillips_curve.jpg?w=...

Would it be responsible of the Fed to not act in some manner?

Or do you think 10% unemployment (10-15% effective unemployment) in the US is a good thing to have, the Fed should stay put and the US should voluntarily experience a decade or two deflation, in masochistic penitence for our past sins?

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 07:48 | 634645 sushi
sushi's picture

In what way do you think that raising the cost of living for the unemployed will correct the problems facing America?

How do you see a ramp in equities benefiting the unemployed?

Do you believe that making it more profitable for US MNC to operate overseas will somehow create jobs in the US?

 

Sun, 10/10/2010 - 12:12 | 639342 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

In what way do you think that raising the cost of living for the unemployed will correct the problems facing America?

 

How do you see a ramp in equities benefiting the unemployed?

 

Do you believe that making it more profitable for US MNC to operate overseas will somehow create jobs in the US?

 

An increase in expected inflation almost directly transforms into an increase in jobs: future inflation means future growth, which means an increase in demand and an increase in production - the usual business cycle.

An increase in jobs means the unemployed get a job, and can pay for the (nominally slightly more expensive) goods.

How does thi s work via equities and the FX rate? It works by making US businesses more competitive globally - giving US companies a larger share of global demand. This too strengthens job creation.

The problem for unemployed is that there is an inevitable lag for such effects to trickle - so it's already too late in many ways.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 23:23 | 634363 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

I find it odd 5 billion in pomo can move the market 150 points but QE 2 starting at 1.5 trillion open ended  banker bailout is priced in?

 

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 01:46 | 634512 Bear
Bear's picture

Pomo goes to Market, Queetwo goes to Piggy (xxx.gov), and we go wewewe all the way home.

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 04:33 | 634576 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

It's totally NOT priced in.  How can you price something in if you don't know the numbers?

500 bil., 1 tril, 2 tril, 7 tril?!

 

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 05:03 | 634581 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

Exactly, it is not priced in. The Federal Reserve is using their retailer Goldman Sachs to try to CONvince the market that when QE2 comes to reality that the market does not abruptly move in the 'wring' direction. It is just another CON game folks. Just like having CONfidence in the market, CONfidence in the US dollar, CONfidence in the CFTC/SEC, CONfidence that GLD actually has gold, CONfidence there is gold in Ft. Knox, etc.

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 07:29 | 634636 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

It's totally NOT priced in.  How can you price something in if you don't know the numbers?

500 bil., 1 tril, 2 tril, 7 tril?!

Did it occur to you to read the article you are replying to? In particular the following part, which was highlighted in bold letters by Tyler:

In particular, a purchase program of about $1tr may now be reflected in 10-year Treasury yields, the three-month Libor rate and the dollar.

So in Goldman's opinion 1 trillion USD appears to be priced in.

Sat, 10/09/2010 - 20:45 | 638614 euclidean
euclidean's picture

+1; while I am swayed that TD posts all this Goldman bullshit in jest, it is getting more and more prevalent.

Goldman were convincingly short the EU pair at 1.27 (both the apprentice and senior trading desks were adamant TD reported), now their EURO target is 1.55?? This must be saying they have anough TARP money in reserve to cover a 2800pip short position?

That's totally awesome!! I guess even on an 11 year timeline everything returns to a +ve growth. I'm waiting for more people to join Whitney in downgrading these useless banks.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 23:36 | 634384 Bolweevil
Bolweevil's picture

Priced in? Oh we have yet to surpass our old friend 14,000 laddy.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 23:36 | 634385 monopoly
monopoly's picture

It sounds like cash before this meeting. Not gonna sell my miners. But all else is already 0 and cash. Physical gold, just keep adding on any and all dumps.

 

Just tough to say if miners get thumped. What a freaking mess this is. And they don't even give a damn.

This will have an ugly ending.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 23:54 | 634409 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

The Impact of Derivatives on the Gold Market
Jessica Cross – Chief Executive, Virtual Metals Research & Consulting
Paper Prepared for
The ABARE Conference, Canberra, March 2002

Back in 1994, after following what I called the derivative revolution throughout
the 1980s, I commented on this very issue. In my book1 I said…”what may
benefit an individual mining company does not necessarily augur well for the
market as a whole…. On occasions, producer hedging will not only influence
the price, but may even act as a major price determinant.”
There is general consensus now that derivatives have had a major impact on
the structure of the gold market and ergo, the behaviour in the price, in a way
that has not been seen in other commodities or financial instruments. Why
has the gold experience been unique? The explanation is due to a number of
factors. The market itself is very small relative to currencies, and any
structural change imposed on it had an exaggerated effect. But more
importantly, gold remains a contango market, exhibiting a positive carry.
Contrast this to base metals and the platinum group metals which can and do
lapse into periods of deep and prolonged backwardation; certainly long

enough to dramatically influence price risk management decisions. By remaining

in perpetual contango2, gold producers could rely on the positivecarry in a way that the mining communities of other commodities could not.
This basic premise then influenced the way the use of gold derivatives
evolved.

This explanation begs the question: what is it about the gold market that
ensures a virtually permanent contango? The answer lies in the historical
purchases and holding of gold on the part of the central banks back in the
days of the gold standard. While pertinent when the Dollar and Sterling were
backed by gold, these holdings become less and less appropriate in modern
day financial management of reserves and currencies. The gold overhang,
held inertly, failed to accrue a return, and non-interest bearing assets no
longer have a place in current portfolio management theory.
Thus it turned out that, to earn its keep, these gold reserves were gradually
mobilised. The presence of this lending provided the liquidity necessary for
this existence and execution of price risk management products. Without
liquidity, the bullion dealing community would not have been able to execute
the transactions and hence they would have been render rather useless
unmarketable products. In short, the central banks as a source of this liquidity
became a key factor in evolution of the gold market.
Now none of this mobilisation of Official gold would have been encouraged if
there had not been a willing borrower of the metal on the other side of the
liquidity equation. Enter the mining companies, all greatly excited by the
1979/80 price rally to the magical $850 level, and hence flush with exploration
money.

The 1980s also saw the advent of cost-effective heap-leach technology, which
improved dramatically the economics of mining relative low-grade shallow ore
deposits. The combination of these factors resulted in the ballooning of gold
output in Canada, the USA and Australia.

Note the marked increase in output from North
America and Australia during the 1980s. All this increased production, as it
rolled off the drawing board and into d’ore trucks, required project financing.
At that stage, US Dollar interest rates were comparatively high. The
differential between the cost of borrowing dollars and borrowing gold was
wide enough to convince the miners of the wisdom of the gold loan – the
original prototype derivative product. The miners borrowed gold from a bullion
bank, sold it to raise capital with the intention of paying it back through future
production from the developed mine. Once financed through metal borrowing,
this new output was subject to price risk, which the miner elected to managed
through increasingly sophisticated bullion base derivatives. This created a
very ready market for a whole range of derivative products for basic forwards
through to vanilla and then exotic options and any combination of these
products that one might care to imagine.

 

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 07:09 | 634625 Samsonov
Samsonov's picture

mon, it appears gold and the miners were basically a weak dollar play since mid-summer.  Yesterday when the dollar found just a little support it was nasty thump for gold and simply brutal for miners (FCX being my skin in the game).  That reaction is what I call a warning shot; I dumped my FCX.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 23:38 | 634390 Bob
Bob's picture

Priced in . . . in other words, Mr. Market already spent money he didn't get yet.  Ironic, that.  Looks like a Market version of a McMansion: A McMarket.  Who pays the mortgage again?   

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 23:56 | 634411 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

i'm curious if the equity market weakens does the treasury market rally as in '08?

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 01:39 | 634509 Bear
Bear's picture

Good question. The movement of Treasuries (after QE2 announced) will be good indicator of whether QE was priced in ( in equities) correctly or not. If equities weaken and bonds don't rise the Market is toast. The long bond is now almost 135, it went up to 144 in Dec '08.

Thu, 10/07/2010 - 23:58 | 634414 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

If so the Black Swan has arrived. If they lose their grip on the markets after spending another 3T the country will go into cardiac arrest.. Even though it's only a dead zombie anyway, it's all they got.O'l phd Ben will hit it with the paddles and there will be some jerking but it will be too far gone to revive.

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 00:01 | 634417 JR
JR's picture

Quantitative easing, a.k.a. accelerated counterfeiting, amounts to Wall Street looting Main Street, nothing more than “complex theft.”

Ayn Rand said that “only rational, productive, independent men in a rational, productive, free society” can be of value to one another.

“Parasites, moochers, looters, brutes and thugs can be of no value to a human being—nor can he gain any benefit from living in a society geared to their needs, demands and protection, a society that treats him as a sacrificial animal, and penalizes him for his virtues in order to reward them for their vices… No society can be of value to man’s life if the price is the surrender of his right to life,” i.e., survival.

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 00:05 | 634421 FischerBlack
FischerBlack's picture

I agree that a cool trillion of additional QE is priced in. But I don't agree that a cool trillion is all they'll commit to. It would be classic Bernanke to *not* put a dollar amount on the next round of QE but to leave it open-ended, free to grow  'as conditions warrant'. I don't think you'll see a sell-off on a commitment to expand the Fed balance sheet to infinity if needed.

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 00:08 | 634426 Jeffrey Lebowski
Jeffrey Lebowski's picture

How the fuck could anyone have the hubris to make the statements this idiot has about shit being "priced in"..... Oh, never mind,m the jerk off is a "golden slacher"....nuff said

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 00:14 | 634432 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Its all priced in.  Have you seen those prices lately?  With dow at 11k, and valuations in the toilet, something has to be included with those prices....

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 00:20 | 634440 JR
JR's picture

Exactly.  What I want to know is what’s priced out.

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 01:00 | 634487 Hedge Jobs
Hedge Jobs's picture

its priced in. just like peadophiles in charge of a kindergarten are going to fiddle with the kiddies the physcopaths at the FED are going to debase the worlds reserve currency.

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 00:13 | 634431 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Nothing gets past the beakers at Goldman....

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 00:24 | 634446 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

If some powerful people think QE2 is priced in, then the October 8 stock market could be taking profits on the October 8 bad employment numbers. It would be a way for the stock market to send Ben the message "more QE milk, please". 

Or the October 8 market could rally. Or the market could fall and rally...and fall..and rally on a roller-coaster all day. Who knows. It just seems the world is on pins and needles...with currency jitters...systematic failures of mortgage foreclosure...etc. etc. If any day before Nov 2-3 is going to spark a fire, it is October 8 and the jobs report.

 

Seat belt fastened?  Check.

Crash helmet on?  Check.

Flotation device ready? Check.

First aid kit? Check.

Dramamine? Check.

Vomit bags? Check.

Change of underwear? Check.

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 00:31 | 634457 Hdawg
Hdawg's picture

Just doing God's (cough Rothchild's) work.

Bless them all.

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 00:35 | 634462 Shiznit Diggity
Shiznit Diggity's picture

These attempts to quantify the extent to which QE2 is priced in are misguided. Animal spirits running amok in a QE2-induced frenzy are not quantifiable. The sky's the limit, baby!

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 00:46 | 634474 Assetman
Assetman's picture

Whether or not we see QE 2.0 at a $1 trillion-- or some other unspecified amount-- the pricing in of this may be irrelevant over the next few months for the equity markets.

Why?  I think we see more economic deceleration due to an inventory effect going in reverse.  Earnings estimates are going to be well too high, and we may see pockets where selective stocks will be down 30%-40% in one day.  I'm seeing early signs of this already.  More is in store this earnings season-- but's it's gonna be widespread in the December quarter. 

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 00:58 | 634483 Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

The equity markets have always seemed to rally through the earnings seasons since the March '09 lows.  It will be interesting to see if this is quarter than breaks the pattern.

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 00:54 | 634481 PeterB
PeterB's picture

QEeezy Bag 2...bring it on or should I say up!

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 00:55 | 634482 Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

It's pretty silly to apply this quanitative (no pun intended) analysis to what is essentially a psychological, qualitative issue.  September's rally could have been short covering from August, or expectation for more QE, or expectations for the mid-term elections.  There are to many variables.  I could as easily have my 3-year old pick a number and be as accurate.

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 01:13 | 634493 trip nixon
trip nixon's picture

The whole QE2 thing is nonsense, or should I say, the market reaction to it. QE2 would be an admission that QE1 failed, and that's somehow bullish? And that somehow means QE2 will succeed? Shouldn't something as important as the money supply and debt at least be something we can VOTE ON, instead of it being controlled by private interests.

What's the definition of insanity -- doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. Well, my friends, this nation has gone INSANE.

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 08:04 | 634597 bada boom
bada boom's picture

It is nonsense, but these are people that believe QE1 was not big enough to solve the problem, so we must do more to fix it.

You cannot sail beyond the horizon because if you do you will fall off the edge of the earth.  How many times has society allowed misguided people to run the show?

To add to this. 

QE2 may be done for sinister reasons.  As we know, the federal reserve is not here to serve the American people, but itself.  Bernanke is the chairman, but he serves his shareholders.  What do his shareholders want?  Bernanke could just be a fool who was selected, sorry put up for vote, by his handlers.   You would select a fool that best fit yours means to the end.

 

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 02:03 | 634524 gwar5
gwar5's picture

The Fed has blathered on about it so much, of course it's priced in.

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 02:07 | 634528 gerriek
gerriek's picture

With the imminent crash traditional correlations will break down. Watch the dollar crash with the equity market.

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 02:46 | 634549 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

According to my models, equity markets are currently pricing in $4.8trillion in QE 2.0--but ... shuh...  don't tell it that. 

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 02:54 | 634552 Bandwidthog
Bandwidthog's picture

Glen Beck made mention of zerohedge on today's program.  Glen gave zerohedge credit for the equity outflow article.  Good Job people.

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 09:12 | 634814 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Great.  Can't wait for the influx of new readers -- and comments.

</sarc>

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 03:12 | 634561 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

They don't need to downgrade McDonalds in australia. They got good managers.

http://www.fohguild.org/forums/attachments/screenshots/152877d1286379502...

 

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 05:36 | 634589 Chicago bear
Chicago bear's picture

Charlie Evans is giving a little talk in a couple weeks- before Nov 3. I'm eager to ask him the amount. Maybe I'll wear my ZH cap.

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 05:55 | 634594 99er
99er's picture

Chart: ES and ZB

Discounting a fail?

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/10/es-zb.html

 

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 06:02 | 634596 anony
anony's picture

I always read the last paragraph of these long posts first.

So, not much time suck.

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 09:16 | 634817 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

I recommend reading the last part (episode 18) of Ulysses in order to avoid all the unnecessary previous text.

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 06:21 | 634606 TexDenim
TexDenim's picture

I notice the dollar just spiked majorly.

I'll bet it's the Chinese buying greenbacks just to piss off the West for awarding the Nobel prize to a guy they keep in prison.

This QE2 anticipation is not going to end well.

 

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 07:05 | 634624 GFORCE
GFORCE's picture

The year 2025 is mostly priced in.

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 07:15 | 634628 99er
99er's picture

(Reuters) - Japan said it will continue to intervene to curb a strong yen if necessary, just hours before G7 and IMF officials meet to discuss escalating tension over currency policies, and Thailand is also poised to act.

China, which has rebuffed calls from the West to let its currency rise faster, allowed the yuan to firm on Friday to its highest against the dollar since a revaluation in July 2005.

Traders said Beijing may be making some concessions ahead of International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings this weekend. But they said any further rise would be limited so as not to harm its exports.

With positions entrenched, expectations for any meaningful agreement in Washington are low although fears of a global currency war have jumped to the top of the agenda.

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 07:18 | 634629 George Costanza
George Costanza's picture

QE2 this and QE2 that.  Amazing how equity market no longer effected by earnings, PE ratio, and valuations.   That is very dangerous.

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 07:18 | 634631 George Costanza
George Costanza's picture

QE2 this and QE2 that.  Amazing how equity market no longer effected by earnings, PE ratio, and valuations.   That is very dangerous.

Fri, 10/08/2010 - 07:18 | 634632 George Costanza
George Costanza's picture

QE2 this and QE2 that.  Amazing how equity market no longer effected by earnings, PE ratio, and valuations.   That is very dangerous.

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