Goldman: Forget (Plunging) GDP As A Tracker Of US Growth, Meet Goldman's Current Activity Indicator (TM)

Tyler Durden's picture

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Spitzer's picture

Are they going to count interest on credit card debt in the "CAI" like they do for GDP ?

ghostfaceinvestah's picture

Good one, you clearly understand the components of GDP better than 99.9% of Americans.

My fav is the imputed rent homeowners pay themselves.

slaughterer's picture

Is THIS how they are going to save ES 1500 this year?

Dugald's picture

Rose tinted spectacle itis, the national malaise.

Awsome in its potential, frightening to those few Americans not involved in perpetual naval gazing......





Id fight Gandhi's picture

Obfuscation and theft go on. What do they need to fudge to get qe3? Because we can't have a selloff of the market, oh no.

TWORIVER's picture

Calling All Idiots

Misean's picture


+any amount of Benny Bucks you want. Fantastic, catches the mood and zeitgeist perfectly.

Robslob's picture

Enron Economy 101

Zero Govt's picture

a kick in the only place it hurts ..well done Belgium, with Iceland are we starting on a roll here?!!!

Hang The Fed's picture

Collection of Asinine Information.

Dick Darlington's picture

CAI = Cheating all idiots

Cleanclog's picture

Still love WTF - Winning the Future.  Argh!

TruthInSunshine's picture

Hey, maybe they can remove the companies that either don't grow profits and share price, and the companies that get sick or die, also, from the major indexes, in to order dramatically skew index performance to the upside... know, re-jigger the indexes to put lipstick on pigs.

Oh, wait.

They do that all the time.


My bad.


(Has anyone ever done a study of what index returns would have looked like if they re-manipulated indexes every decade or so instead of on a continual basis? I'd bet it would be horrendous)

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Or use this ..... 96.5, we are back to 2006 levels on the index.


The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI), a real-time measure of the flow of goods to U.S. factories, retailers and consumers, rose 2.7% on a seasonally and workday adjusted basis in March, more than offsetting the 0.3% decline in January and the 1.5% decline in February. On a quarter over quarter basis, the PCI is up 3.9% at an annualized rate, a welcome acceleration from the relatively weak growth of the PCI experienced in the second half of 2010. Over time, the PCI has shown a substantial correlation with Industrial Production. Last month, the PCI correctly suggested Industrial Production for February would come in flat to slightly down at .02%. The strong March PCI suggests a 0.8% gain in industrial production for March when that data are released by the Federal Reserve on April 15.


“March represents the sixteenth consecutive month of year-over-year growth in the index,” explained Craig Manson, senior vice president and index expert for Ceridian. “This is particularly encouraging because the first six months of last year were strong, and the index posted solid growth despite the difficult year-over-year comparison. Continuation of this trend is welcome news, because like the overall economy, the PCI has been growing since it first turned positive in December of 2009.”

About Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ is based on real-time diesel fuel consumption data for over the road trucking and serves as an indicator of the state and possible future direction of the U.S. economy. By tracking the volume and location of fuel being purchased, the index closely monitors the over the road movement of raw materials, goods-in-process and finished goods to U.S. factories, retailers and consumers. Working with economists at UCLA Anderson School of Management and Charles River Associates, Ceridian provides the index monthly and also offers companies access to more detailed fuel-use information. Ceridian is a global business services company providing electronic and stored value card payment services and human resources solutions. UCLA Anderson School of Management is perennially ranked among top-tier business schools in the world. Charles River Associates is a leading global consulting firm that offers economic, financial, and business management expertise to organizations around the world.

SDRII's picture

central agency intelligence

centerline's picture

Corruption aggregator index

Cleanclog's picture

Criminal Accusation Immunity

Crowd Activity Instigator

Cacophony Adjustment Invention

Crafty Asset Influence

Probably all of the above.

Piranhanoia's picture

Create Artificial Incentive

GolfHatesMe's picture

CAI stands for (C)We (A)Fuck (I) You, the CA and I are all silent

fbrothers's picture

Who is this for the buyer or the seller?

Vagabond's picture

Completely asinine index

mynhair's picture

Crap, you beat me to it.

Frigging captcha longer than 2 characters.

themosmitsos's picture

So, they just invented their own bullshit indicator to denote GDP at +4%?! Is this a joke?

tgatliff's picture

The thing I am confused is why they created another name?  I mean just change the way the GDP is calculated and say the new way is a "better indicator of growth" like they did with CPI.

Growth problem solved!!



Careless Whisper's picture

Did anyone at Goldman get served with a subpoena today?

assumptionblindness's picture




Aristophanes's picture

Don't worry, soon a massive uptick in the purchases of shotguns and pitchforks will raise the CAI for them.

Run you Goldman bastards!

SheepDog-One's picture

Now you need to upgrade from hip waders to chest wader boots to slog thru the economic BS dump daily.

Global Hunter's picture

"model high frequency indicators", sounds like they're just making stuff up now.

They're beginning to sound like special interest groups that use "empirical evidence" to shake the government down for money.  "7 out of 10 female university students don't feel good about their body image therefore we need a 25MM grant to study this further and provide them with effective services."

When the world becomes one big social science class the endgame is near.

centerline's picture

Too bad that GDP is based on hot money.  Therefore, everything downstream is bullshit.  Bummer.

Everybodys All American's picture

CAI - Cover Ass to Infinity

djb1953's picture

Crap Anal Intelligence

slaughterer's picture

Crappy Associative Idiocy

Zero Govt's picture

Criminal Assistence Index ....say everythings rosey while you rob/rape what's left of the economy

Everything is 'perception' to be 'managed' (manipulated) by fraudsters Goldman Sachs. AAA is actually shit, the ACI is another sugar coating for turds ..the frauds are at it again

alien-IQ's picture

According to Goldman, GDP should be measured exclusively by the number of $1000 per hour escorts buying a brand new Benz each quarter.

RobotTrader's picture

Another excuse to drive consumer discretionary stocks up even faster.

Sheesh, so many are going totally parabolic, its crazy.

SheepDog-One's picture

So is gold and silver. Immune from paper wildfire soon.

Internet Tough Guy's picture

Futures are skying! Sell gold, buy bank stocks!
RobotTrader - Fri, Apr 15, 2011 - 08:38 AM

LOL, I told all the anarchists at ZH last night, warning them of a rotation out of GLD and SLV into XLF......

FoieGras's picture

I've been hearing about plunging GDP since Q3 2009. Every quarter we will "really have the double dip now".

Sooner or later the GDP bears will be right, let's not forget they have been brutally wrong for so long now. Hilarious.

SheepDog-One's picture

'GDP bears'? Who gives a shit about GDP, that number is now as phony and data chery picked as anything Ponzi bears will be proven totaly right when the streets are suddenly running with blood. And who cares if youre right then?

adyaner's picture

Crap Asset Investment

OldPhart's picture

Can't Admit Inflation

Bam_Man's picture

Now that the economy has been totally converted to a hyper-leveraged Ponzi casino, GDP is irrelevant (if not practically non-existent).

Just keep track of the Russell 2000. No need to measure anything else.

centerline's picture

Casinos dont have windows or clocks for a reason.