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Goldman Goes For The Trifecta: Lowers 2011 Copper Price Target From $11,000 To $9,800/mt; Gold, Silver Next?
Following two consecutive commodity downgrades which killed crude and all commodities, which led many to wonder just how many pictures of Lloyd Blankfein at Scores does Bill Dudley have locked up in his office, the bank, whose primary M.O. is to push inflation, has just released one more deflationary report, this time cutting the last man, er doctor, standing: copper. From Goldman: "We are pushing out our $11,000/mt target to 2Q2012 and lowering our 2011 year-end copper price target to $9,800/mt from $11,000/mt. Accordingly, we recently closed our long December 2011 copper trade recommendation – first opened on October 4, 2010 – for a gain of $1,872/mt. We are also raising our 3-month forecast to $9,300/mt, and 6-month forecast to $9,600/mt." And with this we can now scratch Scores, and move on to The Bunny Ranch. Incidentally, this means gold and silver are next. You have been warned.
From Goldman's Joshua Crumb:
We have updated our copper balance and price forecasts for 2011 and 2012. We now believe that prices will likely remain rangebound in 2011 and that risk has become more symmetric given our view that inventories are unlikely to draw down to critically low levels before 2012. However, we believe that a price spike has been deferred, not avoided, and maintain our 12-month forecast of $11,000/mt.
Draw in inventories to critically low levels has likely been deferred
Copper prices rallied sharply in the past week, heading back toward the top of the recent trading range between $9,300/mt - $10,000/mt that has held for much of the year. While we had expected prices to move decisively out of this range to the upside heading into late 2011, we now believe that prices will most likely remain rangebound and that copper price risk has become more symmetric as opposed to skewed to the upside. Underpinning this shift is our view that modestly slower-than-expected copper demand growth owing largely to Chinese consumer destocking, tighter inventory management and the negative supply shock resulting from the earthquake in Japan will likely delay the drawdown in copper exchange inventories to critically low levels. However, as we expect demand to continue to outpace supply, we now forecast a drawdown to critically low levels during 2Q2012.
Price spikes likely no longer needed to balance the market in 2011
The avoidance of stockout suggests that price spikes will no longer be required to ration demand and balance the market this year. However, we maintain that Chinese end-use demand remains healthy, that consumers have been eager to step into the market on price dips and that the market will most likely remain in a meaningful deficit over the course of the year – all suggesting that prices are unlikely to fall significantly below the recent range on any sustainable basis.
Price spike likely deferred, but not avoided
We are pushing out our $11,000/mt target to 2Q2012 and lowering our 2011 year-end copper price target to $9,800/mt from $11,000/mt. Accordingly, we recently closed our long December 2011 copper trade recommendation – first opened on October 4, 2010 – for a gain of $1,872/mt (see Commodities Update: Target in sight, closing CCCP trade, April 11). We are also raising our 3-month forecast to $9,300/mt, and 6-month forecast to $9,600/mt.
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can we place orders with GS? I need some $9 silver
Bernanke is, once again, getting bullied on the playground. You got Goldman declaring using not-so-subtle code that we are headed for deflation/recession. You got Bill Gross having stated that he is taking his ball--the best ball--and going home until Bennie gets with the program. You throw on top of that what looks like a bear raid on the commodity sector. Bennie is gonna be whimpering (bitchez).
GS' drones sell off and flee to Treasuries - an illusory micro-flash that there really will be buyers if Fed stops the presses. Tack on a modest dip at the pumps all's well for Ben to take a midsummer's nap, only to be awoken when the sheeple plead to restart the engines once the Dow breaks 10K. GS knows the unending supply of $$$ trumps, so their creating buy opps...
BTFD
No. This means that QE3 is a given and so commodities need to be halted.
Nothing like giving a "warning" that the ponzi needs to print more fiat and QE forever, therefore supress commodities. The Morgue is trying to claw back PM's and is failing miserably. Benocide is now sicking Goldman on the market to see if they can suppress inflationary worries.. Who's next?
This white-collar charade is up. I don't care what Goldman says, they're all a bunch of fiat pimps that rely on free taxpayer money to survive. Fuck 'em.
Double F... em . We are just being scammed again - G.S. propaganda machine . Why even quote the bastards ?
Gold is being hit with the FED/Goldman deluxe extra double cheese cheeseberger. This is their best shot. So far, BFD. BTFD.
Bullshit. Always do the opposite of Goldman for the long term. Copper is being driven by hyperinflation. I may be too bold in my $10/lbs before the end of this summer call but it is going up, and it's because of the printing.
Supply meets Demand, neither like each other, failure ensues.
I am Chumbawamba.
You runnin' a 3Xbear-Goldman fund? I'd be interested in some puts...
i can see this actually and but not for the reasons you give. this has "Fukishima" written all over. There's "copper everywhere" but due to the fact that Japan is in the midst of a NUCLEAR crisis "it sits" rather than comes to market. That theory makes sense as similar to oil "copper is everywhere" and "should be nowhere given the lack of any recovery in housing" but instead "just sits in the government bank as a store of value" in an age when paper money is being repudiated. The wild card is still "US equities" which should have been selling off for months given the beyond anemic "recovery" under Obama and the Republican resurgence. The "killer" would be a raging bull market in US equities for a third year in a row--which is possible given the depth of the decline in 2008 and the two extraordinary events of Fukushima and Islamic world revolt happening simultaneously (which should keep the QE in place.) But that makes US equities as a "shining star" with one HELL of dark side. The "Black Hole Sun" of markets.
"Copper is being driven by hyperinflation."
I think this is too simplistic. I think there is something driving copper that Westerners have a sense of but lack the full picture. In China, bonded copper is being used as a financing mechanism, buyers pay with a letter of credit and then place the copper in a warehouse, and get funding against it. Therefore, they are getting cash out of the deal, but are taking a risk on the price. I think this explains why the official warehouse data is volatile and hard to read, as copper is "taken" out of warehouse, in order to indicate demand and support price, but in reality, it is just placed somewhere else (the physical material is not moving, just the paperwork). The key risk is that a decline could lead to a panic selling (the other risk is a revaluation of the Yuan).
As for JP Morgan, I suspect they are holding on behalf of funds, as well as an ETF and they may well have a position as a proxy hedge for the silver position (but I believe this would be acting as an agent for the Fed)
I went heavily into copper miners in March 09, and made a very good return but finally exited my positions at the start of this year because when I read what the copper miners were saying about demand, it was different to the banks (who were much more bullish) and because I thought China slowdown would hit demand and because I am not convinced it is a great hedge against inflation (particularly stagflation).
I do not deny the long term importance of copper, and I think any investment portfolio needs to have more copper miners than gold (because they don't have the absurd P/E valuations), but this market is just acting funny and I think we are due for a correction, which could become 25% or more. $10/lb is frankly nuts for a highly oxidizing and expensive to store metal...
Yeah, you say all that, until it hits $10/lbs because of money printing.
This is hyperinflation. You said it yourself:
"In China, bonded copper is being used as a financing mechanism, buyers pay with a letter of credit and then place the copper in a warehouse, and get funding against it."
That's called "money".
I am Chumbawamba.
And then you have the whole supply issue with oil...but according to Nicole Foss oil constraints will lead to a deflationary event.
I disagree. I think it will lead to deflationary pressures, but the act of combating those deflationary pressures will be highly inflationary.
http://www.planbeconomics.com/2011/04/12/nicole-foss-on-peak-oil-with-ji...
It will be especially deflationary for suburban house prices...
Market Maker is just creating buying oppritunities for...themselves.
You may be right.
Didn't we just read earlier that Goldman may be trying to weaken its largest rival JPM? Isn't JPM holding a shitload of copper?
I hope they both crash.
JPM is heavy in copper. They tried to corner copper to hedge their PM shorts, in my opinion.
A dose of Richard Russell to help offset all mind games and PM negativity.
===================
April 12, 2011
With gold and silver consolidating recent gains, the Godfather of newsletter writers Richard Russell had some interesting things to say in his latest commentary, “In all my years of investing, I have never seen an asset hit record highs, as gold has done recently, with less fanfare. There were no front page stories in the Wall Street Journal or Financial Times, heralding the new milestones." Fred Hickey, editor of the High-Tech Strategist and a member of Barron's Roundtable.”
After quoting Hickey, Russell continued:
“Gold is another story. The daily chart (above) shows gold breaking out of a head-and-shoulders bottom to the upside. Course of action -- sit with your precious metal position. Buy more on any pull-back toward the line of support (line of support is now at about 1450).
Russell comments on gold and silver -- Because the precious metals are in a massive bull market, many eager amateur analysts are now trying their hand on calling "the top." This is a hopeless and ridiculous endeavor during a powerful bull market. Much of this top-calling is done by an anti-gold element: Those who dislike gold or those who have missed the entire gold bull market. My advice all along has been to "ride the bull" and to ignore the "top callers."
The precious metals will correct when they are ready, and I might add that in ten years of closely following gold and silver, I have never come across anyone who has successfully called tops or who has successfully traded in-and-out of the metals. Advice -- stay invested in the metals until they exhaust themselves in panic buying.
Even then, what would you sell you gold for -- more fiat paper? We'll talk about selling precious metals when the time comes, which may be months or even years in the future.
Last, we turn to the Dollar Index...The Index is perched precariously above the critical 75 level with MACD in the process of turning negative.
A much longer view of the Dollar Index....Major critical support comes in at 70.69. I would think anything below 70 might set off a dollar panic.”
Gold has broken out above the $1,450 area and as Russell says, generally you want to buy on pullbacks toward that level. The public might be too skittish to do that, but the professionals certainly will. If that level holds, it will provide the base for the next leg higher in gold. For the non-professionals, simply accumulate each month on the same day and dollar cost average your purchases over time. This is a huge secular bull market, enjoy the ride. As far as the US dollar goes, God help us when we finally break 70 on that index.
To subscribe to Richard Russell’s Dow Theory Letters CLICK HERE.
Eric King
KingWorldNews.com
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/4/12_Richard_Russell_-_Buy_Pullbacks_in_Gold_%26_Ignore_the_Top_Callers.html
"The precious metals will correct when they are ready"
It is said that a picture is worth a thousand words...that statement is worth a thousand thoughts.
Thanks for sharing.
You're welcome. An Oddball response to all those PM bashers out there: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwTGGHaCHAE
richard russell is very compelling. there has been a topside breakout and 1450 in the new support. here's the chart. duh.
richard russell may be right. hope he is.
but, that 1450 hasn't been tested, til today. yup! it's doin fine, but it din't trampoline back up $20 when it hit it, either.
the fact that richard russell wants you to buy, here, does not mean that 1450 is gonna hold for support. the market will determine that. maybe before NY opens tomorrow, maybe not for three weeks.
r.r. like the probabilities of this holding, i'll betcha, or he wouldn't have come out so strongly. would he?
Thanks, Peg. It is what it is. Friends ask when I will sell my PMs. About the time they start buying, I'll start thinking about it.
Bingo!
War of the Worlds. JP's bets open and vulnerable, the Squid circling for the Daily Double in the Lightning Round.
Both JPM and Goldman are Rothschild controlled institutions. JPM and Goldman often work synchronously. Healthy competition? Perhaps.
duplicate deleted
This is my thought too. Why tell the batter what pitch is coming? GS is jawbonin' and gettin' a boner.
Hopefully Goldman is right and we are all provided with an opportunity to BTFD!
Martin Armstrong writes that the best case for a sustained secular bull market in gold, is a low in June.
However, if the last ten years provides a guide, gold has found its low in 9 of the last 10 years by May and 6 of the last 10 years in the first quarter.
Hey! Just one darn second there buddy! Didn't you hear? Jim Cramer said, "the economy is on the mend" today. So, the PM bull market is over, got it!?
LMAO! Fuck 'BTFD'...Buy Before You Can't anymore. (BBYC)
These fucking criminal fuck bastards get nailed to the wall by Trader Dan. All should read:
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/04/goldman-sachs-jams-bonds-hi...
another awesome TD! and he works with whooom? lol!
Why dont the people see it....they are just sheeple on GS email list. Do you think GS are going to do what they are doing....or you think they are trying to stay with their clients and work for them. Not effing way... brokers age old trick is to buy when their client base is silling and VISA VERSA. I am amazed no one really catches on to this!!!
I subscribe to the guy from australia and his FFT economic newsletter at http://www.forecastfortomorrow.com that guy has called many big events before they have happend, including the stock market crash in 2008 and the current financial collapse of the US. (currently happening) I found him from a friend last year, and he has some important work.
His oil calls are insane, and I have been making good money with them. He is well worth a look, if you want to keep two steps ahead of the sheeple out there.
Hey, GS, can you fill an Au order at $700?
With a near 100% correlation between commodity and stock prices over the past 3 years, a sell position on spx is next. So everyone should be long 5 and 10 year bonds as the inflation threat is over so says GS. If only finding and producing copper, oil, wheat, corn, coal, etc. was as easy as writing a silly 4 page report.
If only finding and producing copper, oil, wheat, corn, coal, etc. was as easy as writing a silly 4 page report.
+ I'm not impressed with GS' ability to move the market. Get back to me when they've moved commodities down by twenty percent.
The ball is squarely in Ben's court. It's all about QE3; to be, or not to be.
My old college room mate, one of GS's top dogs, used to laugh at those "silly little blue reports."
I assume this is a dig, care to expand?
see - there is no inflation. GS just turned the knob down - all fixed
We would be better off if Stuart Varney went back to Britain where he belongs.
We'd be happy if Carl Quintina washed his hair and described at least 2 things he knows about business.
All he has to do is read the news and look good. Joe K. has a phd, wtf does he know?
I can only hope. Getting a little rich on my paycheck, to bad the paycheck is not expanding as fast as the Fed's balance sheet.
Nothing like getting GS to to do the dirty work of .......
Paging Mr. Cramer. Mr. Cramer....
Hooray! Lloyd has his wood on. And so in the morning we can continue with the plunging and screaming! Lloyd be praised...
God's work in action. Bring peace to your life and accept him into your heart as your personal Lloyd and banker.
GS is pouring the cold water... Moving the fucking goalposts are we?
On deck is a 1kbf lumber downgrade I guess....
"Spike likely deferred but not avoided".
Your typical Wall St gibberish.
A graduate of the Henry Blodgett Institute, majoring in blowing smoke up everyone's ass, for money.
As stated earlier, TPTB has complete control of our markets.
Jawboning and paper shorting can move any commodity market at will, up or down.
Short tickets for NYMEX and COMEX can be printed into infinity.
You cannot print end users of copper, oil, gold, silver.
LOL....I bet nobody thought of that.....
Mr. " Two Face " is expanding after he said he would never post on ZH and shut down the blog if he was wrong ... Lol
But he just steals Santa's info anyway, Atlas Shrugged ...
So, here's my promise to you. Gold will trade at $1600 on or before 6/10/11. If I'm wrong, I'm shutting down this blog and going away, never to be heard from again as I will have proven myself to be of little value. If I'm right...well, let's just say it would be perfectly appropriate for you to hit the "Feed The Turd" button every day for the rest of your life.
I'm lost. You're responding to RT, but posting a guarantee from Turd Ferguson.
Hey Idiot. .... That's all, case closed .... It's a gold • silver thread and this moron has everyone in said trance. See , he pimps one thing, but when things do not work out like the last two days he blames Blythe, E.E., whatever it takes to wipe said egg off face. A perfect marketing ploy and he gets paid in fiat and his wife drives a hummer which takes fiat to fill up, a win • win Lol
By my calculations you will be absent the next time the wind is changing directions.
I will just change teams. I can root for anything that makes money.
Your calc will then be in error
And by my count Turd will call another bottom off the 50 day moving average, simply amazing !!!!! Never been done before !!!!
And he uses intra-day charts in a rigged market ( in his words ) ..... Snake Oil, Only the stupid would gulp this trash down, at least he has Santa to copy LOL
Go back over the last 5 days it was buy, buy, buy now its a normal pullback in a bull market ... But great swammy why not tell us the news before it happens, everyone can follow Sinclare if that want his info, Turds plagiarism is not needed !!! Lol
Hey I gave you GLUU before a 100% run in 8 weeks, pure GOLD.
I'm assuming you only read his nonsense for a source of comedy material. Otherwise it's more fun to shrink you brain by sniffing glade air fresher from a baggy.
It's brutal. I've been calling out this tool for months but the sheepe just keep on grazing. A 50 day moving average, a bottom call a few months back, nooooooooooo really, a bounce off the 50 day.
Well I never
I must sleep work calls at 4:30 a.m., Juan, enjoy ....
Peace Brother
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_V8MAlCVgI
You're going to absolutely love the new site, Spalding.
Thanks for helping me promote it!
Well I never go on the site and rant because I'm not a n#gger. Good Luck.
Peace out Turd, I blast your sales pitch but we are both Americans so I respect your Gig .... Hope the family is well and the ice cream is flowing !!!! I was in pre-press then marketing, you are correct, any pub is good pub. You should have a big ass link to ZH .... Only fair for the Godfather.
Great tunes !!!
Del Castillo - "Anybody Wanna"
Perdoname by Del CastilloYou don't respect anyone. You're a natural born loser.
Bay of Swine. How about you read my post about Turd and tell me how I'm wrong .... Lets start with that.
Charts in a rigged market √
Post big market calls after Santa √
Started ice cream business ( for profit ) before the end of the great keynesian experiment, gets paid in fiat, fills up gas with fiat, buys new car with fiat, pays taxes in fiat ect ............ Lol ,hypocrisy at its best √
All the bad market calls are washed away in the blood of Blythe, EE, JPM √
Truer words were never spoken.
Spalding is the epitome of a jealous loser.
If epitone means he has a cock in his mouth everyday,you are right.
Wow, what a spectacular moron convoy! Robo-faker, booger eating smells, and willy the butt turd (now going by long juan whatever) all teaming up. I feel dumber just being in their presence.
Lets talk money velocity in relation to treasuries and credit you fucking clown ..... ????
Hey look, its a fucking moron, he does not know shit about money but tosses stones around, how about this, give us some stock picks for the next 12 weeks .... Oh thats right, your just a gold • silver pimp
PIN FUCKING DROP , get back in your clown car T. " David Koresh " Mosley is waiting, the sale for the pepperoni ends at 6 and the potatoes are almost gone, and the fucking rice quick, get the fucking rice Lol'
Why, you know dick about money. What is a Reserve?
RoboTrader vs RobotTrader
LMAO
Mr. " Two Face " is expanding after he said he would never post on ZH and shut down the blog if he was wrong ... Lol
But he just steals Santa's info anyway, Atlas Shrugged ...
So will you promise never to post on ZH if gold does trade at $1600 on or before 6/10/11?
i know!
Double Post
To:Robot Trader
Your comments are more stupidererer then your mom's picture!
RTs note about printing up end users of copper was quite pointed except he omited to remark that the PRC braintrust is swamping warehouse facilities over yonder by hoarding copper in lieu of USTs.
Now that's a contorted "end" use.
Looks like they are doing their best to demand QE3
have been warned since 300 gold 4.50 silver
precther one of the yale guys is always on the warn path.
Now the big banks warn anew ,, yet they have just bluff and piles of paper ,
the next warning will come at 1600,,, then 1800 then 2250 on gold.
the pavlovian warning ,, ring ,, gruel bowl is now empty.
\
I am odd man out on ZH, but PMs will be cut down at the knees.
It's a crime, but it's also amazing what a united front by central banks can do to stop an imminent, rising tidal surge that threatens the very backbone of their existence and power (fiat), and it wouldn't be the first time they stemmed that tide.
Until central banks of the Rothschildian Lizard Archetype are shot in the forehead, and killed, they will continue their depraved ways, and money will just be debt dressed up as a pig with lipstick slapped on it.
I am odd man out on ZH, but PMs will be cut down at the knees.
Can you provide a scenario in which this happens without cutting equity markets at the knees too? Just curious about your line of thinking.
Yep. All those markets will become midgets
There isn't one.
Equities will get slammed, too.
Don't let the RoboTwats of the world post chart porn and get away with it without historical ass whippings served up in quantity.
Equities are now where they were 12 years ago, and broken glass bled many an investor to death who was foolish enough to walk that 12 year path long equities - in fact, survivorship bias alone would have gotten them crushed, alone, and that's without the bulk of the losses (look at how they re-jiggered the indexes in just 12 short years).
The stock market is for suckers.
If you're not a Buffet (getting saved by 'Uncle Sugar') or a Stevie Cohen (paying off company insiders before earnings releases), you're the bait swimming amongst the sharks.
The only way to get wealthy (not rich but wealthy) in corrupt Amerika today is to stay far far away from the money changers, bankers and reptile skin shoe wearing stock peddlers, and invest in core assets generating income in businesses you know and know better than th competition, and get family members and/or people you trust to help run them.
If you then want to sell your soul and make a financial killing, once your income is way up and your holdings are solid, you can sell the business to the lizard men, who will dice it up and sell it to the sheeple, and cash you out with a hefty premium.
Or you can hold it for your kids and grandkids, and give them a chance and growing it and continuing to prosper - keeping far away from the advance of the pigmen.
You speaka da truth, Truth.
well, it's not a bad way to get wealthy, but i don't think it's the only way, whatever wealth means.
But a buy before the end of July or August, I think.
Many people (the chinese need reserves badly) will buy before it gets to the knees...
GS's jawbonin' gave me a boner too!
double post again. Man, my computer is slow.
Goldman has no shame, as all can plainly see by their past jokes of calls, but they don't want to be caught on the wrong side of one of the watershed moments in history.
2011-2012 will be comparable to 1933 in gravity, slope and scale.
I was just reading tonight about how the IMfuckingF is preaching long and hard to, even chasting the U.S., for its out of control spending.
Fukushima, housing depression, a sickly Eurozone with PIIGS+UKitis, a massive Chinese credit bubble (the likes of which we are seeing with rapidly deflating housing and auto sales), massive property bubbles in Australia & to a lesser degree in Canada, 20% to 30% unemployment *real* in the U.S. and Europe, massive turmoil in MENA, Iran & Israel tensions, and The Nagging Crises Created By The Bernank Shitstain- all spell deep trouble.
I've only missed about 54 crises, so feel free to add to the list.
You forgot world population has doubled in the last 40 years. It's all exponential from here. Farmland Bitchez!
If you can keep it. Eminent Domain will let the government nationalize all farm land and hand it over to some corporation like Monsanto.
ya, like that worked out for the Kulaks. Then it didn't. Then, well, it kinda' provided what? 50% of the food on 3% of the land.
But lots of pain in the middle.
- Ned
Silver,
In my opinion at the point the goverment tries taking over farm land etc from the private sector, that is one of the things this country needs.
Why? Shit will hit the fucking fan hard and fast. Farmers, ranchers, loggers, construction workers, truck drivers, etc, basically all of your rural sector is watching this BS take place and the mood is getting much worse nation wide.
Just my opinion.
Which IMHO explains B Obama, apologist extraordinaire and Speaker to Soothe the Savage Masses.
The world's population nearly tripled from 1800 to 1930, and we still had the Great Depression in 1933 in the U.S.
How many acres of prime U.S. agricultural land is being wasted under government programs paying farmers not to farm it? I have talked to dozens of farmers over the years who have hundreds of acres under these programs. The rabbits, groundhogs, oppossum, pheasant, and quail love it, but does it really make much sense if, as you believe, farmland is diminishing and is at a premium.
I note that in Iowa, good land goes for $7000+ per acre. In Ohio, $4000+ per acre. I can recall when the same land was worth $1500 per acre--and it was not that long ago. And before that, in about 1983, it was at the same elevated levels it is at today. Seems to me that maybe good farmland will again fall in value some day?
If the dollar goes to hell, which it almost certainly will do, would not gold and silver skyrocket? Also, would not the blue chip stocks soar on inflation alone? Sure, it terms of real value, they may actually decline, but the DJIA and the S&P will be sky high if the dollar collapses. Right?
Given the debt, obligation, and future deficit issues, the Fed's monetary policy, and the realities of U.S. decline, is it not a given that the dollar will collapse? So, why not buy gold and silver, and maybe U.S. stocks, now, while your dollars are worth something? If you sit on your dollars while they collapse, they will be worthless to you in 2, 3, or 4 years.
Oprah's last show is May 25.
Was there a first one?
Last show of what, her last diet?
No more Petunia Pig.
what hasn't Goldman said the last three months? They're starting to look and act like like Jim Cary's alter ego in "The Mask." Here's what we do know: if copper prices stay sky high in the middle of the worst housing recession EVER with interests rates at near zero and debt monetizaiton at "maximum warp" and no real economic growth for as far as the eye can see then every banker has a spooge spot in his boxers the size of Lake Erie. "Search your mind young Skywalker. YOU KNOW IT TO BE TRUE!"
I'm thinking you are right that a deflationary crash is coming. But I can't decide how gold will respond to this. Could go either way. My conclusion is to stay 50/50 PM and cash.
so whats this about 7
?GS got some inside goss that america is gonna send ground troops into libya? and expect a massive retrace of USD flight to safety? and corresponding commodities fall?
Yes I have been warned.. thank you. Just came into some FRN's this week, would love to BTF'ingD !
AG, Bitchez! The poor man's gold!
I understand the game plan going on, and it scares the shit out of me.
What better way to bring on QE3 than talking (ignorant) people into dumping longs and really causing a deflationary event. Any sign of deflation will allow Bernanke to go full bore with QE3 with congress and Obama blessing it and praising Bernanke for doing it.
He has to see the deflation first before he can unleash qe3
Bingo!
Anyone else find the irony in them announcing cutting the CCCP trade on the anniversary of Yuri Gagarin going to space?
Who's still smokin the Acapulco Goldman? Isn't JPMorgan long copper? Could we be witnessing a battle of Kabbalah demons?
Yes, to the death. For Goldilocks, JPM's positions are a free fire zone.
i doubt if the morgue is still long for that "client". i think the client may have been short PMs and the copper "corner" via london ecxhg was a brilliant hedge. masterful. but, about the time copper went back into the 3's, i'm pretty sure the copper hedge had been liquidated, as well as the PM shorts, too, one wld think, eh?
I hate the squid but surely they can make this bear market last longer than a couple of days.
I am all in cash. I post my buy sell numbers unlike some other robotrolls i know
Ok technically i still have a box of eagles but they are gone at 50.
Otherwise just keeping them around for shits and grins. Plus my kids love gold and silver. They will trade the equivalent in cash for toys and refuse to part with gold and silver.
Greshams law must be innate to our species.
Will you live that long?
I have had my doubts!
You own no Silver shithead.You were one of the assholes trying to convince people to sell at $27.You are a shill.Fuck off.
I don't know what's worse - reading the crap from Goldman or reading the crap from the oil speculators - I mean bulls about how Japan is going to convert from nuclear power to totally rebuilding and powering their society on diesel...
What a crock of...
But hey - these guys are "the most productive" members of society...honest...they may go Galt on us and then what will us po' workin' folk do?
You po working folk may not have a job. I can go halftime and not need a single employee except my long suffering wife and my kids just for tax purposes.
As long as I can generate a significantly higher return to my firm than my cost - I'll be ok. I think that is what they used to call a profit. I see my results every month...
Lest we all forget - labor creates a profit too - not just capital. Finance seems to have become an end to itself nowadays...
I profit from my labor, too.but it takes a blizzard of paperwork in the bureaucratic age.
+Kyoto Accords (NOT)
GS is the same as Mr. Smith from the Matrix.
The volumes across sliver the last two days is unreal, Laid on a sliver short today. Any way... Found another tsunami video:
http://www.ebaumsworld.com/video/watch/81434833/
found this today. Any way... Unbelievable:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIkYKZDgsOU
"Price spike likely deferred, but not avoided"
Translated in layman's language: "QE3 will be here 3 weeks before we publish our next upgrade of commodities prices. Those suckers (aka JPM's clients) who bought from us during the recent run-up, good luck!"
I never...ever saw this coming. Nor did I bring it up just 2 short days ago when ZH came out with it's latest piece on Bill Gross being short USTs.
Yes...silver will get blowtorched in the next 30-60 days (hence my longs being closed out)
NatGas will be good.
Inflation, using the reporting methodologies in place before 1980, hit an annual rate of 9.6 percent in February, according to the Shadow Government Statistics newsletter.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42551209
GS owns a nice LME warehouse that they need to fill at deeper discounted prices. Oldest shyster trick in the book.
All else is just noise....
Aww, GS, where illusion and reality meet.
The fact that one #uckin company commands this much power should tell you something about how the markets (don't) work.
The next time you hear people joke about tinfoil hats, sheeple and grand conspiracies... think about the events over the last 24 hours.
I need say no more.
GS is not just a company. It is your Feudal Lord and Master
It's been about two years since the media came out with tantalizing stories regarding the GS trading programs that have the ability to manipulate markets. Since then, it's been eerily quiet. No SEC investigation, nada.
We all seem to ignore the hungry great whites that are invisible in nearby waters, as long as they feed on the occasional tourist. But the red stuff in the water that drifts by is definitely blood.
Sliver two different markets
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sR28o5f9aKE
Wow! Wonder what similar chart looks like for PSLV.
Am I supposed to hold my breath in anticipation of the next silver monkey-hammer?
In cash waiting won't suffice?
get this guyz money for this ....lulz. I wish i would a senior "lol"
If GS says gold is going down then I'm going all in long gold with my what paper I have left.
Here's the deal: Goldman doesn't get the power of Biflation.
They think that a punky US GDP, China trying to tap the brakes, a shaken Japan and Eurozone in permanent debt crisis is enough to to lower commodity demand. But it's not. Because in a world where you can grab key, strategic, dwindling do-or-die commodities in exchange for increasingly worthless paper you have the classic set up for a melt up: either through hoarding (think China copper) or burning (more oil, food and construction to fuel a more luxurious, US-style yuppie lifestyle).
Bernanke stated in 2002 that because of a technology known as the printing press the supply of dollars is unlimited. But the supply of key commodities is not, and is dwindling fast due to competition and dwindling supplies. That paradigm has set up the key conundrum of our time. The more you print, the more natural resources you'll burn, driving up the cost, forcing you to go back to the printing press. Perfect for PMs as the paper bloats!
In this new world, any reduction in demand for key commodities (energy, food, base metals and strategic minerals) will just be a little temporary blip. A buying opportunity for a world with pockets stuffed with cash that nobody wants and that can't be deployed efficiently any other way (negative real interest rates, sovereign debt increasingly suspect). And the growing population and their governments are hell bent on destroying the environment as fast as possible, accelerating the reality of diminished supplies of key minerals, land, water and anything that lives (to wit, GOP just slashed EPA budget big as part of the budget deal)
Malthusian huh?
I think we are pretty clear that a "yuppie lifestyle" is going to be available to fewer and fewer people as the global ponzi scheme grinds itself down to the equivalent of a slow moving train...
Who knows - maybe people will rediscover the value of character and culture.
It could happen...
Without the yuppie lifestyle or the attempt to achieve it governments will fall. In the US that translates to political suicide for the party or individual who tries to tell people they're not entitled to it. They wanted a "consumerist" economy, they got it
It's much more sinister than Malthusian. There's too much money, not too many people.
Exactamindo. Physical manifestation of the "me" society paradigm.
Character has become an imaginary attribute of noble fairy tale princes and political posturing.
Bingo
Perhaps it is just that there is too much money concentrated in too few hands?
There certainly is too much power concentrated in too few of hands - no countervailing force.
All during the run-ups in the price of oil - I kept wondering when we would hear calls for investigations from user industries like the airlines, trucking firms, etc. when it became apparent that the markets were rigged. It was just like the Enron deal in CA - you would have thought that the big users of electricity would have turned on them - but it didn't happen...
That's because all of those industries are beneficiaries of the cash-distribution scheme aka bailouts aka stimulus. We hear over and over how they've got "gobs of cash on the balance sheet". They don't want to kill the golden cash goose by investigating it. But the cash has few productive places to go (anemic M&A considering the stage of the biz cycle and the mountains of cash). They're playing defense.
imagine for a moment an entire Continent's energy future has just been obliterated and try and "factor in" its "new normal." You had better if your GS because "they'll all tits and ass into East Asia" and "their energy future has just melted down in a place called Fukushima." Now it's time to "short copper"? I say "the owners of copper have GS by the balls and are now going to squeeze." And what else is GS shorting? Everything but Treasuries? Where's your Depression Goldman? It's what you testified before Congress that you successfully created, right? On the good side "the Germans are surprsingly peaceful" with Mubarak and Son's "rolling in like rated dape." Let me guess: you were short that, too.
China has mucho copper sitting in warehouses that is used as collateral for loans because the banks are not issuing any new loans to quell the liquidity and the housing bubble. Yes, copper will fall because world demand sucks at this point. The FED, btw, has to crash the markets. One day soon the algo robots will be given their instructions and Poof, DOW down to 5000, momentarily taking PMs also, but they will be the first asset class back.
This is all planned folks. Watch and learn. When we are all starving and homeless, we will trade our PMs guns and ammos to anyone offering 3 hots and a cot at the local FEMA camp.
You'll be forced to retire in a China 'new ghost city', making room for illegal aliens in the US
Th Squid is a joke. The world is laughing.
if it weren't for tyler taking us to the bunny ranch and saying PMs are next, this wouldn't be nearly as good. you have been warned. shit! that's fabulous!
so wtf's up wid da squid? what happened here?
JAPAN. 4.5 weeks ago. world third largest economy freaking devastated. no good news. disaster.
so, those happy econometric models get revised. ouch. supply side nightmares. and, china may have caught a cold a bit, too. after 2+ years, some positive signs, maybe inflation-induced, but this? this is not conducive to growth. b/c growth and its securitiztion/monetization is "business", this is bad for business.
my neightbor believes in haarp. chemtrails everywhere. he's really encyclopedic and since the calendar ends, well, we know what that means, too. nice guy. they did this to japan. they are going to kill just about all of us. he's 72. wonderful neighbor. i told him i wasn't really sure how the hell haarp works. so, he explained it to me. now i still don't know how the hell haarp works. but at least one of us does.
there's some stuff like that on this page, too. what they are gonna do. why we are screwed. who all is lost. hopeless.
well, we're prob gonna have a little "negative" growth. recession. Japan. Really.
so, we go from 1000 ftusdr's487^^5'z to 950 of same. the world does not end. we work, we plant, we reap, we live, we die, we laugh, we cry.
we try.
take care, friends. wooden nickels everywhere!
I didn't know we were neighbors, Slewie!
jeeez, k-nuk! we talk to the same freaking squirrels, don't we? party on!
slewie -
Ya know how some days you wake up and just have that anthem music playing in your head? Ya know... from the moment your feet hit the floor you know you are capable of nothing but excellence...you piss excellence it's that abundant. Every step you take that day is generating $ and when you go to happy hour you leave with the 3 hottest women.
I think we need that anthem music, I think that's what America is missing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7yfISlGLNU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQlIhraqL7o
The question is, "How fast and how leveraged can they be gobbling up the commodities they are 'advising' its clients to sell."
Is this possible?
is it possible? yes. is it happening? no. failing to see the "pre-nup" on this call.