Goldman Goes For The Trifecta: Lowers 2011 Copper Price Target From $11,000 To $9,800/mt; Gold, Silver Next?

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Tue, 04/12/2011 - 21:07 | 1163664 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

can we place orders with GS?  I need some $9 silver

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 21:38 | 1163770 Thomas
Thomas's picture

Bernanke is, once again, getting bullied on the playground. You got Goldman declaring using not-so-subtle code that we are headed for deflation/recession. You got Bill Gross having stated that he is taking his ball--the best ball--and going home until Bennie gets with the program. You throw on top of that what looks like a bear raid on the commodity sector. Bennie is gonna be whimpering (bitchez).

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 22:50 | 1163956 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

GS' drones sell off and flee to Treasuries - an illusory micro-flash that there really will be buyers if Fed stops the presses.  Tack on a modest dip at the pumps all's well for Ben to take a midsummer's nap, only to be awoken when the sheeple plead to restart the engines once the Dow breaks 10K.  GS knows the unending supply of $$$ trumps, so their creating buy opps...

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 22:50 | 1163961 Harmonious_Diss...
Harmonious_Dissonance's picture


Tue, 04/12/2011 - 23:24 | 1164024 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Incidentally, this means gold and silver are next. You have been warned.

No.  This means that QE3 is a given and so commodities need to be halted.

Nothing like giving a "warning" that the ponzi needs to print more fiat and QE forever, therefore supress commodities.  The Morgue is trying to claw back PM's and is failing miserably.  Benocide is now sicking Goldman on the market to see if they can suppress inflationary worries..  Who's next?

This white-collar charade is up.  I don't care what Goldman says, they're all a bunch of fiat pimps that rely on free taxpayer money to survive.  Fuck 'em. 

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 04:33 | 1164413 Pondmaster
Pondmaster's picture

Double F... em . We are just being scammed again - G.S. propaganda machine . Why even quote the bastards ?

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 13:20 | 1165799 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Gold is being hit with the FED/Goldman deluxe extra double cheese cheeseberger.  This is their best shot.  So far, BFD.  BTFD.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 23:00 | 1163980 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Bullshit.  Always do the opposite of Goldman for the long term.  Copper is being driven by hyperinflation.  I may be too bold in my $10/lbs before the end of this summer call but it is going up, and it's because of the printing.

Supply meets Demand, neither like each other, failure ensues.

I am Chumbawamba.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 23:11 | 1164001 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

You runnin' a 3Xbear-Goldman fund?  I'd be interested in some puts...

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 23:57 | 1164078 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

i can see this actually and but not for the reasons you give.  this has "Fukishima" written all over.  There's "copper everywhere" but due to the fact that Japan is in the midst of a NUCLEAR crisis "it sits" rather than comes to market.  That theory makes sense as similar to oil "copper is everywhere" and "should be nowhere given the lack of any recovery in housing" but instead "just sits in the government bank as a store of value" in an age when paper money is being repudiated.  The wild card is still "US equities" which should have been selling off for months given the beyond anemic "recovery" under Obama and the Republican resurgence.  The "killer" would be a raging bull market in US equities for a third year in a row--which is possible given the depth of the decline in 2008 and the two extraordinary events of Fukushima and Islamic world revolt happening simultaneously (which should keep the QE in place.)  But that makes US equities as a "shining star" with one HELL of dark side.  The "Black Hole Sun" of markets.

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 03:51 | 1164401 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

"Copper is being driven by hyperinflation."

I think this is too simplistic.  I think there is something driving copper that Westerners have a sense of but lack the full picture.  In China, bonded copper is being used as a financing mechanism, buyers pay with a letter of credit and then place the copper in a warehouse, and get funding against it.  Therefore, they are getting cash out of the deal, but are taking a risk on the price.  I think this explains why the official warehouse data is volatile and hard to read, as copper is "taken" out of warehouse, in order to indicate demand and support price, but in reality, it is just placed somewhere else (the physical material is not moving, just the paperwork).  The key risk is that a decline could lead to a panic selling (the other risk is a revaluation of the Yuan).

As for JP Morgan, I suspect they are holding on behalf of funds, as well as an ETF and they may well have a position as a proxy hedge for the silver position (but I believe this would be acting as an agent for the Fed)

I went heavily into copper miners in March 09, and made a very good return but finally exited my positions at the start of this year because when I read what the copper miners were saying about demand, it was different to the banks (who were much more bullish) and because I thought China slowdown would hit demand and because I am not convinced it is a great hedge against inflation (particularly stagflation).

I do not deny the long term importance of copper, and I think any investment portfolio needs to have more copper miners than gold (because they don't have the absurd P/E valuations), but this market is just acting funny and I think we are due for a correction, which could become 25% or more.  $10/lb is frankly nuts for a highly oxidizing and expensive to store metal...

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 12:24 | 1165500 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Yeah, you say all that, until it hits $10/lbs because of money printing.

This is hyperinflation.  You said it yourself:

"In China, bonded copper is being used as a financing mechanism, buyers pay with a letter of credit and then place the copper in a warehouse, and get funding against it."

That's called "money".

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 07:06 | 1164509 markmotive
markmotive's picture

And then you have the whole supply issue with oil...but according to Nicole Foss oil constraints will lead to a deflationary event.


I disagree. I think it will lead to deflationary pressures, but the act of combating those deflationary pressures will be highly inflationary.

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 09:26 | 1164806 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

It will be especially deflationary for suburban house prices...

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 21:54 | 1163811 American Dissident
American Dissident's picture

Market Maker is just creating buying oppritunities for...themselves.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 22:02 | 1163847 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

You may be right.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 23:07 | 1163996 SilverBaron
SilverBaron's picture

Didn't we just read earlier that Goldman may be trying to weaken its largest rival JPM?  Isn't JPM holding a shitload of copper? 

I hope they both crash.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 23:13 | 1164008 Hansel
Hansel's picture

JPM is heavy in copper.  They tried to corner copper to hedge their PM shorts, in my opinion.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 23:41 | 1164037 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

A dose of Richard Russell to help offset all mind games and PM negativity.


April 12, 2011

With gold and silver consolidating recent gains, the Godfather of newsletter writers Richard Russell had some interesting things to say in his latest commentary, “In all my years of investing, I have never seen an asset hit record highs, as gold has done recently, with less fanfare. There were no front page stories in the Wall Street Journal or Financial Times, heralding the new milestones." Fred Hickey, editor of the High-Tech Strategist and a member of Barron's Roundtable.”

After quoting Hickey, Russell continued:

“Gold is another story. The daily chart (above) shows gold breaking out of a head-and-shoulders bottom to the upside. Course of action -- sit with your precious metal position. Buy more on any pull-back toward the line of support (line of support is now at about 1450).

Russell comments on gold and silver -- Because the precious metals are in a massive bull market, many eager amateur analysts are now trying their hand on calling "the top." This is a hopeless and ridiculous endeavor during a powerful bull market. Much of this top-calling is done by an anti-gold element: Those who dislike gold or those who have missed the entire gold bull market. My advice all along has been to "ride the bull" and to ignore the "top callers."

The precious metals will correct when they are ready, and I might add that in ten years of closely following gold and silver, I have never come across anyone who has successfully called tops or who has successfully traded in-and-out of the metals. Advice -- stay invested in the metals until they exhaust themselves in panic buying.

Even then, what would you sell you gold for -- more fiat paper? We'll talk about selling precious metals when the time comes, which may be months or even years in the future.

 Last, we turn to the Dollar Index...The Index is perched precariously above the critical 75 level with MACD in the process of turning negative.

A much longer view of the Dollar Index....Major critical support comes in at 70.69. I would think anything below 70 might set off a dollar panic.”

Gold has broken out above the $1,450 area and as Russell says, generally you want to buy on pullbacks toward that level. The public might be too skittish to do that, but the professionals certainly will. If that level holds, it will provide the base for the next leg higher in gold. For the non-professionals, simply accumulate each month on the same day and dollar cost average your purchases over time. This is a huge secular bull market, enjoy the ride. As far as the US dollar goes, God help us when we finally break 70 on that index.

To subscribe to Richard Russell’s Dow Theory Letters CLICK HERE.

Eric King

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 23:52 | 1164077 ZapBranigan
ZapBranigan's picture

"The precious metals will correct when they are ready"

It is said that a picture is worth a thousand words...that statement is worth a thousand thoughts.

Thanks for sharing.

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 00:09 | 1164088 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

You're welcome.  An Oddball response to all those PM bashers out there:

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 00:46 | 1164177 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

richard russell is very compelling.  there has been a topside breakout and 1450 in the new support.  here's the chart.  duh.

richard russell may be right.  hope he is. 

but, that 1450 hasn't been tested, til today.  yup!  it's doin fine, but it din't trampoline back up $20 when it hit it, either. 

the fact that richard russell wants you to buy, here, does not mean that 1450 is gonna hold for support.  the market will determine that.  maybe before NY opens tomorrow, maybe not for three weeks. 

r.r. like the probabilities of this holding, i'll betcha, or he wouldn't have come out so strongly.  would he?

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 18:52 | 1167053 Treeplanter
Treeplanter's picture

Thanks, Peg.  It is what it is.  Friends ask when I will sell my PMs.  About the time they start buying, I'll start thinking about it.  

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 00:43 | 1164173 knukles
knukles's picture

War of the Worlds.  JP's bets open and vulnerable, the Squid circling for the Daily Double in the Lightning Round.

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 09:13 | 1164749 Trundle
Trundle's picture

Both JPM and Goldman are Rothschild controlled institutions.  JPM and Goldman often work synchronously.  Healthy competition? Perhaps. 

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 23:35 | 1164039 Stares straight...
Stares straight ahead's picture

duplicate deleted

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 23:32 | 1164043 Stares straight...
Stares straight ahead's picture

This is my thought too.  Why tell the batter what pitch is coming?  GS is jawbonin' and gettin' a boner.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 21:57 | 1163828 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Hopefully Goldman is right and we are all provided with an opportunity to BTFD!

Martin Armstrong writes that the best case for a sustained secular bull market in gold, is a low in June.

However, if the last ten years provides a guide, gold has found its low in 9 of the last 10 years by May and 6 of the last 10 years in the first quarter.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 23:14 | 1164013 ZapBranigan
ZapBranigan's picture


Hey!  Just one darn second there buddy!  Didn't you hear?  Jim Cramer said, "the economy is on the mend" today.  So, the PM bull market is over, got it!?

LMAO!  Fuck 'BTFD'...Buy Before You Can't anymore. (BBYC)


Tue, 04/12/2011 - 22:14 | 1163879 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

These fucking criminal fuck bastards get nailed to the wall by Trader Dan. All should read:

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 23:49 | 1164070 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

another awesome TD!  and he works with whooom?  lol!

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 23:58 | 1164085 bigelkhorn
bigelkhorn's picture

Why dont the people see it....they are just sheeple on GS email list. Do you think GS are going to do what they are doing....or you think they are trying to stay with their clients and work for them. Not effing way... brokers age old trick is to buy when their client base is silling and VISA VERSA. I am amazed no one really catches on to this!!!

I subscribe to the guy from australia and his FFT economic newsletter at  that guy has called many big events before they have happend, including the stock market crash in 2008 and the current financial collapse of the US. (currently happening) I found him from a friend last year, and he has some important work.

His oil calls are insane, and I have been making good money with them. He is well worth a look, if you want to keep two steps ahead of the sheeple out there.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 21:08 | 1163667 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Hey, GS, can you fill an Au order at $700?


Tue, 04/12/2011 - 21:22 | 1163700 tempo
tempo's picture

With a near 100% correlation between commodity and stock prices over the past 3 years, a sell position on spx is next. So everyone should be long 5 and 10 year bonds as the inflation threat is over so says GS. If only finding and producing copper, oil, wheat, corn, coal, etc. was as easy as writing a silly 4 page report.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 21:35 | 1163745 Idiot Savant
Idiot Savant's picture

If only finding and producing copper, oil, wheat, corn, coal, etc. was as easy as writing a silly 4 page report.

+ I'm not impressed with GS' ability to move the market. Get back to me when they've moved commodities down by twenty percent.

The ball is squarely in Ben's court. It's all about QE3; to be, or not to be.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 21:41 | 1163773 Thomas
Thomas's picture

My old college room mate, one of GS's top dogs, used to laugh at those "silly little blue reports." 

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 22:08 | 1163863 Idiot Savant
Idiot Savant's picture

I assume this is a dig, care to expand?

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 21:07 | 1163672 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

see - there is no inflation. GS just turned the knob down - all fixed

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 21:07 | 1163673 mynhair
mynhair's picture

We would be better off if Stuart Varney went back to Britain where he belongs.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 21:55 | 1163815 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture

We'd be happy if Carl Quintina washed his hair and described at least 2 things he knows about business.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 22:40 | 1163932 Votewithabullet
Votewithabullet's picture

All he has to do is read the news and look good. Joe K. has a phd, wtf does he know? 

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 21:09 | 1163680 Shameful
Shameful's picture

I can only hope. Getting a little rich on my paycheck, to bad the paycheck is not expanding as fast as the Fed's balance sheet.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 21:34 | 1163757 In Fed We Trust
In Fed We Trust's picture

Nothing like getting GS to to do the dirty work of .......


Paging Mr. Cramer.  Mr. Cramer....

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 21:13 | 1163684 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Hooray!  Lloyd has his wood on.  And so in the morning we can continue with the plunging and screaming!  Lloyd be praised...

Wed, 04/13/2011 - 01:07 | 1164231 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

God's work in action. Bring peace to your life and accept him into your heart as your personal Lloyd and banker.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 21:11 | 1163686 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

GS is pouring the cold water... Moving the fucking goalposts are we?

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 21:15 | 1163688 silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

On deck is a 1kbf lumber downgrade I guess....

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 21:21 | 1163703 Savonarola
Savonarola's picture

"Spike likely deferred but not avoided".

Your typical Wall St gibberish.

A graduate of the Henry Blodgett Institute, majoring in blowing smoke up everyone's ass, for money.

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 21:21 | 1163704 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

As stated earlier, TPTB has complete control of our markets.

Jawboning and paper shorting can move any commodity market at will, up or down.

Short tickets for NYMEX and COMEX can be printed into infinity.

You cannot print end users of copper, oil, gold, silver.

LOL....I bet nobody thought of that.....

Tue, 04/12/2011 - 21:41 | 1163769 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Mr. " Two Face " is expanding after he said he would never post on ZH and shut down the blog if he was wrong ... Lol

But he just steals Santa's info anyway, Atlas Shrugged ...


So, here's my promise to you. Gold will trade at $1600 on or before 6/10/11. If I'm wrong, I'm shutting down this blog and going away, never to be heard from again as I will have proven myself to be of little value. If I'm right...well, let's just say it would be perfectly appropriate for you to hit the "Feed The Turd" button every day for the rest of your life.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!