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Goldman Goes For The Trifecta: Lowers 2011 Copper Price Target From $11,000 To $9,800/mt; Gold, Silver Next?
Following two consecutive commodity downgrades which killed crude and all commodities, which led many to wonder just how many pictures of Lloyd Blankfein at Scores does Bill Dudley have locked up in his office, the bank, whose primary M.O. is to push inflation, has just released one more deflationary report, this time cutting the last man, er doctor, standing: copper. From Goldman: "We are pushing out our $11,000/mt target to 2Q2012 and lowering our 2011 year-end copper price target to $9,800/mt from $11,000/mt. Accordingly, we recently closed our long December 2011 copper trade recommendation – first opened on October 4, 2010 – for a gain of $1,872/mt. We are also raising our 3-month forecast to $9,300/mt, and 6-month forecast to $9,600/mt." And with this we can now scratch Scores, and move on to The Bunny Ranch. Incidentally, this means gold and silver are next. You have been warned.
From Goldman's Joshua Crumb:
We have updated our copper balance and price forecasts for 2011 and 2012. We now believe that prices will likely remain rangebound in 2011 and that risk has become more symmetric given our view that inventories are unlikely to draw down to critically low levels before 2012. However, we believe that a price spike has been deferred, not avoided, and maintain our 12-month forecast of $11,000/mt.
Draw in inventories to critically low levels has likely been deferred
Copper prices rallied sharply in the past week, heading back toward the top of the recent trading range between $9,300/mt - $10,000/mt that has held for much of the year. While we had expected prices to move decisively out of this range to the upside heading into late 2011, we now believe that prices will most likely remain rangebound and that copper price risk has become more symmetric as opposed to skewed to the upside. Underpinning this shift is our view that modestly slower-than-expected copper demand growth owing largely to Chinese consumer destocking, tighter inventory management and the negative supply shock resulting from the earthquake in Japan will likely delay the drawdown in copper exchange inventories to critically low levels. However, as we expect demand to continue to outpace supply, we now forecast a drawdown to critically low levels during 2Q2012.
Price spikes likely no longer needed to balance the market in 2011
The avoidance of stockout suggests that price spikes will no longer be required to ration demand and balance the market this year. However, we maintain that Chinese end-use demand remains healthy, that consumers have been eager to step into the market on price dips and that the market will most likely remain in a meaningful deficit over the course of the year – all suggesting that prices are unlikely to fall significantly below the recent range on any sustainable basis.
Price spike likely deferred, but not avoided
We are pushing out our $11,000/mt target to 2Q2012 and lowering our 2011 year-end copper price target to $9,800/mt from $11,000/mt. Accordingly, we recently closed our long December 2011 copper trade recommendation – first opened on October 4, 2010 – for a gain of $1,872/mt (see Commodities Update: Target in sight, closing CCCP trade, April 11). We are also raising our 3-month forecast to $9,300/mt, and 6-month forecast to $9,600/mt.
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Hot money has to be shaken out of the commodity complex. The whipsaw of course damages resource production and output, so, TPTB can only do this a few more times, but it makes BB-Diddy's models lap-dance for him so he can ignore reality for a little while longer.
Still, keynsian ebubblegnomics is based on fooling some of the people most of the time, and jerking the rest off. Eventually people catch on.
In the meantime, at least till June-ish, expect paper printers to push down commodities against real world demand to drive many up.
Don't worry about manipulation. It's expected. Sit tight, liquidate as and when you need to. Buy if you have cash at hand.
Silver is the shining star for this time. It will not be kept down too long.
All this smoke-screeniing is precisely to shake out the weak hands.
When the war that is under-way is out in the open, financial shennanigans will be at end and all we will have i s reality. A grinding one, to be sure, but real at least.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2010/08/19/want-to-save-the-world-or-at-least-your-self/
Joshua Crumb?
One of Robert's characters.
head explodes
shit happens
avatars not options
free from time decay
no half-life
no half-death
That's exactly what I thought. Who the fuck is this guy?
This thread is dominated by a bunch of PM numbskulls and knuckleheads. Pathetic.
ORI? that's what he's tryin to figure out!
btw, B_Pigz, tyler brought the PMs up in pretty early, here. so, yer use of numbskulls and knucleheads is certainly justified.
Their nads are in a vice. I scoff at this attempt to force QE3, 4, 5 etc. Why, it will happen anyway. The dollar will not magically gain strength. The printed money will not suddenly vanish. Look, if commodities collapse it is because demand collapses (due to high prices and geopolitical events) and if demand collapses the market collapses and then gov't revenue collapses. So, unless this is the end play, I don't buy it. They are betting on QE3...problem is...it will just make things worse.
So, how's this good news for silver?
Sure the current performance of silver is unprecedented (Hunt Brothers excepted), but so are the tripling of the adjusted monetary base and the 14 trillion dollar budget deficit.
http://silvercointrader.com/2011/04/inflation-adjusted-silver-price-perspective/
DXY hanging at 74, just itching to go lower, and now TPTB are setting the stage for QE3. More money printing and a crashing dollar ... how is that bad for PMs?
actually, it's 74.9+, down 2-3 whole pubies in the last two days. i don't know the future, but i told plenty of dollar debbie downers last weekend that it might do just fiiine, this week, ORI included! nice rally on the bonds, today, doncha think? very nice strength for that styooopid dollar-denominated one-off "paper" eh?
maybe tomorrow it'll be "risk on" and the dollar will be @ 72 and the DJIA at 13000, just b/c the transports are happy! can't wait!
i think there may be a few folks who have sold dollars b/c they "couldn't lose---everybody knows what's happening, here" maybe kinda goin: ooohhh,...,... shiiit!!!
now if they're sittin on piles of swiss francs as part of the deal, well, fuk the dollar!
If copper were to push to over 5 weeks supply expect the doctor to crash big time. This is about an extra 500,000 t build, or about a third of what is secretly stashed behind the pig barns in China already.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/03/28/529196/standard-bank-says-chi...
"Fukushima" Macarthur. "That's a lot of copper they're gonna need." Will Japan bankrupt their country to get it? I say yes. Leaving aside the billions (in dollars) for containment of the greatest industrial accident(s?) in history--"stuff comes next" in every form to the tune of hundreds of billions (in dollars of course.)
Investment advice or free speech?
(or government propaganda)
nice avatar, SLL. and, good questions.
copper is real. i don't think they'll be using it to make pennies any time soon again, either.
Slewie, copper may be real, but so is substitution.
Look up 'pex tubing.'
New homes used to exclusively use copper for all supply and even most return lines to toilets, sinks and other water using vessels.
Now, about 95% of the market uses pex tube, with no problems.
Copper has quadrupled in price over 22 months, yet it's being hoarded, on the expectations it has no substitute.
It does, and in most cases.
Dr. Copper is sick and shall be getting far sicker.
cu @ 438 & the trend is yer friend ain't bullish, right now, but i doubt if any of the derivatives are flashing overbought, either, ok?
438. not as healthy as recently, but i'll hold off on the morphine drip, ok? look! i think we're heading for some Japan-induced tough sledding. but i don't trade futures. so i don't trade copper. so i don't care.
you're point is not invalid, TIS. copper has the PhD, and this ain't healthy for copper pricing, or so it seems.
altho you agree with me that cu is real, i'm not sure you understand this: cu has a monetary aspect. for millenia. now, we can't afford to use it. even zinc & alum are getting too "expensive".
copper may have been used recently as a hedge against short silver. successfully. you can't print copper, either. new homes? whatever. still for wiring tho, and how much more expensive, really, is copper if ya know how to measure, cut, sweat and build with it? which would you like in your home?
see, the stuff is real. real money? not quite, but compared to "pex tubing"??? good as gold!
60 MINUTES: 'Gold is Bad'
LMAO...pay attention, the cerebral campaign is in overdrive.
The very fact that the market is following the whims of Goldman Sucks goes to show just how ass backward things are-- these fucking criminals do nothing but create a game of musical chairs to only benefit themselves.
What next, end of QE2 and the FED raising prime 1/2%?
They will be sure and send a coded message using alphabet soup noodles to G.S., J.P. Morgue, and all the other TBTF banks first.
Eat the evidence!
Hey, you can't eat gold.
Fiat dollars make a wonderful lasagna!
Gold and silver do not seem to be getting the message tonight.
I read this web site with interest.
Is Tyler Durden when saying "Incidently, this means gold and silver are next. You have been warned" being sarcastic or is he advising to sell your Gold now BUT to buy back later.
I would like to make some simple points.
Though Gold is a commodity; surely it is a safe currency as well.
Gold cannot be created like QE (Printing Money).
The population of the world is going up and therefore the actual demand is going up yet the amount produced is staying the same.
If the Chinese people start geting worried about investments in property and shares (lots of rumours); then they would opt for physical gold.
As the Chinese government must be aware that USA is doomed; they will be trying to off-load their USA bonds etc and buying Gold instead.
Everyone keeps going on about Gold going up; BUT is it not really a case of the US Dollar going down.
I always plot everything against the stable Swiss Fran and if you look at Gold to the Swiss Franc; Gold is actually falling in price.
I read this web site with interest.
Is Tyler Durden when saying "Incidently, this means gold and silver are next. You have been warned" being sarcastic or is he advising to sell your Gold now BUT to buy back later.
I would like to make some simple points.
Though Gold is a commodity; surely it is a safe currency as well.
Gold cannot be created like QE (Printing Money).
The population of the world is going up and therefore the actual demand is going up yet the amount produced is staying the same.
If the Chinese people start geting worried about investments in property and shares (lots of rumours); then they would opt for physical gold.
As the Chinese government must be aware that USA is doomed; they will be trying to off-load their USA bonds etc and buying Gold instead.
Everyone keeps going on about Gold going up; BUT is it not really a case of the US Dollar going down.
I always plot everything against the stable Swiss Franc and if you look at Gold to the Swiss Franc; Gold is actually falling in price.
http://goldprice.org/charts/history/gold_2_year_o_b_chf.png?0.4304220704...
So perhaps Gold will fall with GS statement for a while.
What ever the case; the US Dollar will fall against Gold and the Swiss Franc.
Hey Blankfein !!
No one can serve two masters, for either he will hate the one and love the other; or else he will be devoted to one and despise the other. You can not serve both God and Mammon.
—Matthew 6:19-21,24Can GS predict earthquake? Wish they can save people's lives
if they thought they could get rich doing it, they would definitely do it.
It's all part of the plan.....
1. Obama talks about deficit reduction, how we can't raise the debt limit - how austerity measures are important and necessary to bring the budget under control.
2. Sell in may and go away holds true - equities and commodities selloff as a result of the "tough talk"
3. QE2 ends taking support out from underneath an already fragile market.
4. Selloff/correction occurs - gold equities decline ; Gold tests 1320/50 ; ES tests 1080.
5. US Dollar Rallies to 81-82; trades sideways for rest of summer on lower volume ; equities drift higher
6. In the Fall - QE3 is implemented ;
7. Buy the dips in equities and commodities ; QE3 is going to happen.
The market operators ie banksters are driving the USD index down and pumping up everything else. This process will continue till there are no long positions left in the USD index and no short positions in any of the commodities, stock or currencies other than the USD.
The operators are then likely to take the long position on the dollar and short position on everything else. They would then use their money power to move the markets in the direction which would get them the maximum profit while screwing all other traders / hedge funds / investors.
The stock, commodity and currency exchanges have been reduced to gambling dens whereby the more powerful traders with deep pockets move the markets to maximize their own profits at the expense of the remaining not so powerful players. The big boys have enormous money power to move the markets in the direction which results in maximum profits for themselves. They effectively use the media to lure the other players in the market to a position where they would incur maximum loss.
The markets will fall only when the banksters have eliminated all the short positions and only they themselves have positioned themselves to profit when the market falls
OR
When an unexpected world event catches the banksters with their pants down and the softwares they use to rig the markets go berserk beyond their control.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article24581.html
"The stock, commodity and currency exchanges have been reduced to gambling dens whereby the more powerful traders with deep pockets move the markets to maximize their own profits at the expense of the remaining not so powerful players. The big boys have enormous money power to move the markets in the direction which results in maximum profits for themselves. They effectively use the media to lure the other players in the market to a position where they would incur maximum loss."
exactly!
To see how it's done - how today's markets really are like a rigged poker game with one band of nobility card-shark thugs against another band of brutal, cheating noble card-shark thugs (as portrayed in Stanley Kubrick's underappreciated movie, "Barry Lyndon"), see Frederick Morton's description of the original Rothschild brothers' great coup at Aix La Chappelle in 1818, which cemented the R's role as the most powerful financial house in all of Europe (and the world) - http://books.google.com/books?id=S235StoBg4EC&pg=PA52&lpg=PA52&dq=Rothschilds+Aix+la+chapelle&source=bl&ots=4BqYDJacQK&sig=2ft3PPG5O5DIkhPOIEEZriZfhWE&hl=en&ei=8pGkTfCvFcnUgQfG2JijCg&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=5&ved=0CDYQ6AEwBA#v=onepage&q=Rothschilds%20Aix%20la%20chapelle&f=false
"...with their boundless reserves [the R's] had bought their rival-issued bonds for weeks and weeks, bulling the paper while secretly cornering it. And then, in one relentless swoop, the boys dumped the whole appalling load."
The GolddamnSachs vampire squids (and JPM toxic debt spiders) are of course the ideological if not lineal descendents of the great R's Pump-&-DUMP market manipulators. Strip them of their secrecy (and ability to BRIBE governments and manipulate public opinion by a treacherous, bought-and-owned press/media) they really are one trick ponies: bait-and-switch SWINDLERS, the public (in all countries) THINK they are getting popular democracy and a healthy economy, they are actually getting the diametrical opposite, corporatocracy dictatorship by bribery (the 'f' word), and feudal wage-slave economic sabotage.
As another ZH commenter wrote the other day, the Big Boys - right now - could easily (secretly) GO SHORT, while publicly INFLATING the bubble, which they then BURST at a time choosen by them. (And then, to add insult to injury, they come back for a NEW round of taxpayer (govt) extorted "bailouts," having just looted TRILLIONS out of the last vestiges of the "free markets".)
eschatology
james brown blues bros
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P1KZKZs-2YM
http://www.commondreams.org/newswire/2011/04/12-27 because it's the most relevant. and this: where i live, people are stealing copper downspouts.
Gold and silver are recovering nicely.
Is that all they've got?
.
Out of curiosity, how many people from GS do you think log on to ZH and post comments on the blogs? How many do you think are even manipulating this article's comments? just food for thought. #VampSquid
I have a serious question actually: does goldman actually have a long silver target trade out right now? i know they advised to go long december gold... but i dont remember them recommending going long silver. maybe i forgot. but anyway, i definitely could see them taking profits on gold like this tomorrow or very soon. we know silver would move out of correlation to gold, but ... would they actually release a sell on silver? doesn't it have to already be in one of their trades?