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The Goldman Guns Are Out, Payroll Improvement Projected Next
First the 85 Broads roll one of them out at CNBC, depositing the permabullish dinosaur Abby Cohen to preach how the bull market has just restarted compliments of the mega squeeze in AIG, FNM and CIT (in finance you are as valuable if you bat 0.000 as if you bat 1.000), and now, hot on the hells of Hatzius' upgrade to Q2 GDP from 1% to 3%, they roll out another macro bullish piece, saying July nonfarm payrolls will be up to -250,000 from -300,000 (the question of whether the 50,000 actually matters in any scheme of things, is irrelevant). Ironically, it was yesterday that Jan thought projected employment assumptions wouldn't budge. So much has changed in 24 hours.
Incoming information on the labor market has been a mixed bag, but in our view points towards a slightly better outcome than our first estimate made about two weeks ago. In particular, information on jobless claims suggests – even after correcting for seasonal distortions related to the timing of auto sector plant shutdowns – some improvement in the state of the labor market. Furthermore, the one-time effects from the temporary hiring/firing of Census workers earlier this year (which reduced government payrolls by 49,000 last month) are essentially over. More broadly, the economy appears to be stabilizing after the sharp declines of Q4 and Q1, and employment trends should follow this with some lag. Despite disappointments in Wednesday’s ADP employment report and the employment index of the ISM non-manufacturing survey, we are increasing our payroll forecast to -250,000, from -300,000 previously.
This all smells of last-ditch desperation to reel in the few remaining retail investors who still believe that Goldman practices what it preaches.
Also, watch for this to make Breaking News on CNBC as soon as they figure out how to turn on the Bloomberg (that thumbprint sure is a brainteaser).
h/t Hedged in
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smells fishy to me, i am reporting you to the WH.
Damned amazing how much improvement GS sees..all those jobs not being lost, all those cars being Government sponsored off the lots.
What is next? Maybe they will mandate that we all swithc houses to get the realty market "moving"?
Your icon looks very fishy to me. I have forwarded your icon to chairman's database.
This truly is the best financial site ever. Thanks for all that you do Tyler.
Yeah, Goldman released the "research" to their clients at 12:37 (unfortunately, I am a client of Goldman Sachs via their REDI Plus platform). Hilariously, Bloomberg picked up the story 2 hours later with the urgency of a highschooler getting laid for the first time. HUGE, BIG, BRIGHT RED HEADLINE suggesting that this was somehow breaking news. The headline came precisely when the S&P 500 was testing the momentum breakout trendline from mid-July. Purely coincidental timing? Color me skeptical.
I noticed that too. Bad judgement on the part of Bloomberg. It is barely even news, let alone worthy of a flash.
Golden rules dealing with Goldman:
1. Never buy what Goldman is selling.
2. Don't do what Goldman says, do what Goldman does.
3. Never be a client of Goldman. For Goldman to be successful, all its clients must suffer.
Should have this posted in a Rules of ZH section.
Get ready for the last hour ramp. Everybody who missed the first 50% move since March will just have to get long ahead of tomorrow's payroll numbers.
Or maybe it will just be robots trading stock back and forth to each other.
They probably have people at the BLS on GS's payroll...or that was the number GS is giving to BLS to report tomorrow...give or take 5k
they have been plenty wrong before. I dont think folks in research are given any inside dope . They are not that stupid.
making research calls and being wrong often shows everyone they are just regular guys .
True, last year they were preaching $200 oil.
And trying hard to make $200 happen.
Man, Goldman was unloading the oil at that time. Of course, how do you unload? Just say oil price would shoot up to $200
It's just AMAZING. Who the hell listens to Dear Abby. I just want to jump out of a window sometimes when I see stuff like this. She was the backbone of the Internet bubble...and yet she still collects a paycheck and people give a rat's ass about her opinions. Is this Bizarro World? Rather than jumping out the window...I'll just hold my breath for 30 seconds in protest!
I mean there are books written about this stuff...are they all robots? http://books.google.com/books?id=jsuZnrzT6YsC&pg=PA120&lpg=PA120&dq=abby...
I know Jan Hatzius quite well - used to work with him at GS. He is dilligent, detail oriented and smart as hell. He's not a markets guy at all, and does not pretend to be. He publishes his economic research and points-of-view as he sees it. And sorry to dissapoint all of the conspiracy theorists, but he does it w/o the input from, or knowledge by, anybody from the equities or fixed income desks.
REALLY? The economy is going to grow? This is exactly the problem. I don't doubt that Jan is sharp as a tack and I'm not a huge conspiracy type...but I too worked at bulge bracket firm and without a doubt there are very insightful, hardworking, bright folks in all those shops. But you don't need research or sophisticated modeling to determine that we're not going to grow anytime soon. This stuff is not that hard...com'on...you don't need Abby or Jan to tell you how to think and where the economy is going. It all stinks and just like other stinky things, it will be in the toilet.
@anon27828
Is this a resume? is he looking for work or something?
That is great that you know Jan Hatzius. You will get an award at the end of the day. I agree that he has done good work throughout this credit crisis (I guess that is the reason GS made him partner). But, we are strictly talking about the timing and release of the research (at 12:37) and the Bloomberg headline 2 hours later. I am sure he did not get input from fixed income desk but you can be sure the research was sent to Bloomberg at the most opportune time (2 hours later when the market was testing a key short-term trend line). But, alas, you know Jan Hatzius so that means you know everything.
As you say, he must have been proving himself a GS man for some time to still be in the position he's in. It doesn't work any other way, not anywhere. You don't get ahead undermining the boss' position . . . even accidentally.
Glad to hear that he remains true to his own values while voicing the GS viewpoint.
What did I say???
I think he has already received his award. Ridicule for being a tool.
Hi Jan, welcome to the board. Thanks for putting your CV out there.
currency markets sure dont smell any big ramp coming. $/Yen etc.
dont tell me you think they have the currencuy markets fixed too!!
Why? Whats in it for them to create a ramp?
this morning Rick Santelli said there was a rumor that the jobless claims from jan '09 thru april '09 could be revised to show another 1 million out of work. now trimtabs just announced that any revisions to jobless claims from jan thru april will not be announced until 1st quarter '10. geee....i wonder why?
the people who were supposed to help calculate the revisions are out of their respectable jobs....what a joke this country has become
Hmm, now that really does stink!!
Must be absolutely dreadful numbers but we won't know about it till the can has been kicked down the road a bit further and GS can continue with their flashing
Amazing run.
Another negative divergence---foreclosures are moving at warp speed-
There are no parachutes big enough.
http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/files/2009/08/90-day-chart-big.jpg
Abbey Cohen of GS is sending out bullish statements
Beware ! Auchtung !! *Klaxon sounding*
Time to dump
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Goldman-Sachs-Cohen-New-bull-rb-2503580416...
Ab-so-lutely.
When that no account skank speaks do the opposite.
Actually, I'm glad to see her take a position. I'll leave my small shorts on and
go long some 10s or 30s.
That bitch lost so many suckers so much money during the dot-bomb phase.
That's how Cramer learned to say "Buy, Buy, Buy !"
If you live long enough you see anything twice. Thanks for bringing this up. I was one of those suckers in 2000 that got bit by her. Embarrasing -- My focus was in finance and IT so I bought my own bullshit. I almost still remember word for word her quote -- "Finally the NASDAQ is getting the respect it deserves at these levels." It was at 5100 when she made that statement.
I got annihilated in 2000. I never recovered. I'm old pissed off and bitter.
A video of shrapnel tearing through her for 45 minutes would please me.
28023, no shit you're pissed off and bitter. You've also yet to develop an adult sense of risk, which was obviously lacking in 2000 too. Odds are you don't know what the odds are, neither does ANY short-term forecaster. Cheer up and keep blaming others for your own choices -- maybe Lord Obama will bequeth to thee your own thumb-sucker stimulus yet.
Alexander Supertramp... interesting guy who became so disillusioned with society that he outright rejected it.
"Cheer up and keep blaming others for your own choices"
Did he choose to live in a society that is ruled by the banks? I didn't, but as 99% of people have no idea what is going on, any change in our economic system will take a horrific collapse, or for everyone to pull their heads out of the sand and study the history of money so we can perhaps finally stop repeating it, and perhaps have more equality.
Obviously with interest rates where they are people are being corralled into the casino so they (hopefully)can at least hold onto the purchasing power of their money. Not much of a choice.
Old and pissed off probably had his nose to the grindstone trying to raise a family and just get by, and was pretty much forced to gamble his retirement in the market. He probably didn't have time to study as most people who view this site do. Your comment reminds me of "Of course they're starving - the idiots live in a desert" You know what, when you're born there with nothing and have no way to escape.... It really isn't your fault.
Just got my Zero Intelligence t-shirt and hat the other day.
This website is incredibly awesome. Good work.
I just got my hat too. Great stuff. Hope the few bucks we pay for those things help keep the servers running.
What has changed in the last 24 hours is payrolls info was leaked to GS, I betcha.
iam sure they wiould prefer to have the stock be down significantly by Nov. Since comp is increasingly in stock - lower is better.
If payrolls do in fact come in at -250,000 instead of -300,000, does that mean the adminitration "saved" 50,000 jobs?
-- chunkylover42 (still waiting for account activation...)
I see a V shaped recovery in that GS chart...the V is in the price versus the volume.
@27828: That is great that you know Jan Hatzius. You will get an award at the end of the day. I agree that he has done good work throughout this credit crisis (I guess that is the reason GS made him partner). But, we are strictly talking about the timing and release of the research (at 12:37) and the Bloomberg headline 2 hours later. I am sure he did not get input from fixed income desk but you can be sure the research was sent to Bloomberg at the most opportune time (2 hours later when the market was testing a key short-term trend line). But, alas, you know Jan Hatzius so that means you know everything.
watch all the nervous nellies covering their shorts. LOL - wusses never make any money.
When they only have two losing trading days last quarter, you better be careful to bet against The Almighty GS. ;)
dude..they control the markets, they get everybody LONG and then whoomp...the markets start tanking...yet they still make money...
Tyler-
Please check this out.
http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/fed-buys-last-weeks-treasury-auction/...
Thanks Anon 27892, this finally helped me understand what happens at the auctions. Its a Must Read!!
It is the 35 minute to the end usual squeeze.
Getting so you can check your clock by it!
Someone needs to tells Pisani and MC Cabrera that it has been a terrible year for Treasury Bonds and that when yields go up we call it a "Treasury Sell Off" and not a "bull market in Treasuries".
They were both calling it a bull market for treasuries this year. Outrageous.
I live my life by a simple motto,
never listen to CNBC...... well....that and everyone Wang Chung tonight.
Never bet against GS
Moin from Germany,
Goldman, Deutsche see milder July job losses
....Deutsche Bank said it expected the U.S. Labor Department to report 150,000 jobs lost versus a prior forecast of 325,000. An improvement in jobless claims in recent weeks signals an "inflection point" in the labor market is getting closer, said Deutsche's senior U.S. economist Carl Riccadonna
When is this pure market manipulation going to end. THey have to be kidding me.
Didn't Hatzius do this last month (or was it June) revising his NFP number up a day or so before it came out?
Was he right?
Abby Joseph Cohen farts dust.
Imagine that old queen giving Paulson a knobber under the desk.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBivITiDHG9g
March 17 2008 (Bloomberg) -- Abby Joseph Cohen, the most bullish investment strategist on Wall Street this year, will stop making Standard & Poor's 500 Index forecasts for Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/32315226Aug 6 2009 (CNBC): "Stocks are in a "new bull market" and its main benchmark, the S&P 500, should rise from the current 1000 to the 1050-to 1100 range by the end of the year, widely followed market guru Abby Joseph Cohen told CNBC..."
I was just vaguely remembering her making a prediction of 1,600 on the S&P, but I couldn't remember when. Some googling revealed the answer. May 2007. Rock and roll.
Moin from Germany,
She had been the second-most bullish Wall Street strategist at the start of 2008, a year when the S&P 500 tumbled 38 percent to 903.25 for the steepest annual loss in seven decades. Cohen predicted in December 2007 that the index would end last year at 1,675
But thats nothing compared to her "famous " Call from 2001....
http://www.wallstreetfollies.com/2002/bullimia.gif
dec 4, 2007. AFTER the credit bubble imploded. Nice call.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22101808/
She says the S&P 500 will hit 1,675 by the end of 2008, a gain of 14.5 percent over 1,463 at market close Tuesday.
It is good to keep up with what the monolith pronounces.
last-ditch desperation? Probably right.
Not only does ZH carry the best financial news, it also has the best comments.
Not too many trolls or idiots here. Why is that? Maybe it's because witty, aggressive ZH commenters quickly turn trolls into targets of ridicule. Maybe it's because idiots don't like being laughed at by people who have a 50-point IQ advantage. TD ultimately deserves the credit for the good comment threads too, because he attracted the good audience.
Keep up the good work ZH and commenters!
If GS puts it ass out on the line then you better believe that the numbers are going to be close to their call. I guess the next two three months is when everyone will be going long making the market go up against all logic and GS going short progressively and then when they are comfortably short ..timber time !
Great news! We're running out of people to lay off!
I couldn't agree more. This shit reeks of desperation.
Took my ball and went home today. GS calling a new bull market after 45% rally in 5 months did it for me. Sitting in the deflationist camp until the end of the year. These unemployed people are going to start rolling off of "extended" benefits next month. This is going to be a slaughter.
"Laura Blankfein and her friend Susan Friedman, wife of another Goldman honcho, Richard Friedman, caused a huge scene at Super Saturday in the Hamptons last weekend when they arrived at the event before the noon start time and balked at waiting in line with the other ticket-holders.
"Their behavior was obnoxious. They were screaming," said one witness. Blankfein said she wouldn't wait with "people who spend less money than me.""
http://www.nypost.com/seven/08052009/gossip/pagesix/goldman_sachs_wives_...
This really is priceless as well as expected.
Who else would marry a giant maxi sized type A prick?
Obviously, Lloyd's recent admonishment to his execs to avoid conspicuous consumption and other insensitive public displays of obnoxious behavior did not apply to the wives.
This IS her toned down low key behavior.
Oh boy another caravel barker at the circus.
Music please.
Entry Of The Gladiators
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g094B573iWI&feature=related
The 85 Broads roll out an 85 year-old broad for 85 Broad.
Good news for Abby when they move to 200 West.
There are quite a few interesting Cohen quotes here..
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/01/al-gore-and-abby-cohe...
The payroll improvement next alluded to, and you should all laugh at this, is that Wall Street Bankers are taking home record bonuses to improve the economic statistics. But we should not be upset at all, they had to pay this out to increase average incomes which is a vital statistic to encourage the green shoots. The bankers did not want the money, in fact they felt bad about having to take it, but wanted to do their civic duty. Multiply ten thousand bankers by at least a million a piece and you get 10 billion+ dollars that did not exist last year (was hard to justify last year!). Their bonuses are just the balancing equation for key economic indicators.
This guy makes more sense than any gold report:
http://www.radio.goldseek.com/players/sinclairnuggetaug5.php
You guys gotta read that link from Martenson!
from comments:
The Fed also bought another big old pile of Agency Debt today.
Thu 8/6/2009 3:07 PM
New York Fed purchases $19.2 billion net ($19.2 billion gross) in agency mortgage-backed securities
You know, because things are looking so good.
That makes today your average, regular $26.2 billion dollar day of thin-air money injection ($7 + $ 19.2). To put this in context, today's fresh money operation, alone, would have 88th on the list of yearly total output on the world GDP listing.
Why bother running a whole country when you can just print up an entire GDP in a single day? Sooner or later folks are going to lose the subtle connection between dollars and sense.
The Fed also bought another big old pile of Agency Debt today.
Thu 8/6/2009 3:07 PM
New York Fed purchases $19.2 billion net ($19.2 billion gross) in agency mortgage-backed securities
You know, because things are looking so good.
That makes today your average, regular $26.2 billion dollar day of thin-air money injection ($7 + $ 19.2). To put this in context, today's fresh money operation, alone, would have 88th on the list of yearly total output on the world GDP listing.
Why bother running a whole country when you can just print up an entire GDP in a single day? Sooner or later folks are going to lose the subtle connection between dollars and sense.
Clearly the US government statisticians lack the skill level of their Chinese counterparts, who have never revised any released figure ever.
The US, on the other hand, revises the GDP figure for Q1 down 20% from its earlier level. Twenty percent! Sure the US is a massive complicated economy, but these guys cash their paychecks. Makes me think the 20% downward revision is done in order to make the Q2 figure look better by being based on a now smaller overall GDP. No, the government wouldn't do that, would they?
Good to see how the market is forward looking and upbeat and always embraces the release as if it had the veracity of the Ten Commandments, even when they see that last month's number was revised down (always down....could it be...?).
And that old battle axe Abby Joseph Cohen. No doubt Goldman will keep her around long enough so that at least once is her career she will get SOMETHING right. Got to love the humanity in Blankfein et al. Poor old bat can surely use her $772,000 bonus. Oh wait, she's a partner! Make that $15 million minimum.
Hey Abby, Morgan Stanley paid "Yahoo is a screaming buy at $275" Mary Meeker $30 million. You know you are not worth AT LEAST as much as Meeker, adjusted for the inflation you never predicted.
I thought when Goldman Sachs rubbed thier skank all over you that you were annointed and couldn't fail. Have people lost faith in the skank?
Never lose faith in skanks.
In my mind, Cohen moved all in with her call today
$3 billion for clunkers adds 0.5 percent to GDP...they only need to spend another $15 billion to get 3% growth.
Abby Joseph Cohen has always looked like a MAN to me. Anybody else think this way? She is a very manly woman.
Oh a more serious note, did she call the Crash of 2008? Or was she pimping the equities market through Q3 and Q4 of 2008.
Would you listen to anybody who did not call the Crash of 2008?
George Orwell
Tyler,
what you failed to mention was that right after AJC was done talking, Kudlow got on to say that it was good to hear her bullish comments, since she's had such a good track record in the past...
Oh dear, I just had a choking fit reading that... and nearly died!
Yeah ansd ABJ then thanked him and nodded in agreement. What a disgrace. When she gave up her role she went off to work on the environment/foundation in disgrace after embarrasingly calling for down 1600 whatever. GS moved her aside after she defacated on herself with her repeated whiffs. So the old politician trick of hiding away for a while then slowly emerging. She sucks.
Not to be outdone, the Aussies are out now raising their GDP forecast from -0.5% to +1.0%. Also talking up future rate hikes. No word yet on the scheduled time when they will be raising their payroll projections.
Rumors circulating that Japan is going to see that 1% and raise it 9%. Expectations favor Germany going all-in, after which France will fold.
p.s. FX market still laughing at the RBA; AUD quickly reverses initial gains and now notably lower.
Dunno if anyone will read this far down on this thread, but I just had to throw this up, found it off Max Keiser's site today (and I may be behind the curve in popping it up here.)
It just made me want to laugh and puke at the same time, which I assure you is a most horrible experience to go through. Epileptics have died better deaths. Anyhow, check it:
http://www.nypost.com/seven/08052009/gossip/pagesix/goldman_sachs_wives_...
NY Post. Didn't they win a Wurlitzer Award or something? I think it was for the story about the boy trapped in the refrigerator eating his own foot or something.
Noting I have less than 10% of my net worth in the market, I confess the feeling with the faux pump upwards still fucks with my head (i.e. what do I sell now that I am "back in black?"). Frankly I dont feel deserving of the P.M.'s my Daddy left behind for me knowing how hard he worked. Out of respect I dust his Nobel Prize (i.e. Physics/S.L.A.C.) almost everyday.
Thanks for your work Tyler or whoever you are.
How much for a t-shirt?
That damn aussie is killing me. There's a margin call at my door and it's very impatient...
I have always played by the rules of the game. Notice:
To all greedy fraudsters and anyone else who is working to screw me out of my hard earned $. If you continue to push me into a corner financially, I will end you.