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Goldman On Ireland And Paddy Paper: "Expect High Volatility"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

When even Goldman's summary update on Ireland, which conveniently ignores today's news that the country may be preparing for a senior bondholder haircut and most certainly ignores last week's dump of Irish paper by LCH Clearnet from the repo market), is unable to find much if anything good to say about Irish bonds it is really time to get out of dodge (not like anyone was still left in it). The kicker in Francesco Garzarelli's just released analysis: "With around EUR 30bn worth of senior bonds maturing in 2011-12 (40% of
which is not already government guaranteed) and under continued
reduction of funding efficiency of the covered bond program, rolling
over maturing debt remains indeed one of the biggest challenges faced by
the Irish banks." Everything else is noise. Add to this the Portuguese government crisis, its own funding crunch, and the rapidly deteriorating German political crisis and Europe will be a very fun place over the next few months. In fact for once we agree with Goldman: "In light of this, Irish bonds [ZH: aka Paddy Paper] will continue to exhibit high volatility, in our view."

From Goldman Sachs: Ireland in the Spotlight, Sunday 27 March 2011

Key announcements this coming Thursday on the restructuring of the Irish banks could also involve enhanced external policy support. If confirmed, this may lead to a reduction in the credit risk premium embedded in Irish government bonds, which is now hovering at the highest level since the crisis started (2-yr Irish bonds closed around 800bp over their German counterparts on Friday). Nonetheless, we are also of the view that the EMU ‘non-core’ sovereign market is heading towards an even greater segmentation between the small ‘outer peripherals’ countries (Ireland, Greece, and Portugal) and the higher rated and more liquid issuers, like Italy, Spain and Belgium. In light of this, Irish bonds will continue to exhibit high volatility, in our view.

The EU Summit came and went, as most market moving information (e.g., the upsizing of the EFSF, and the term sheet of the ESM) had been released previously. There, nonetheless, was some disappointment on Ireland, as a much anticipated reduction to the lending terms provided by the EFSF was not agreed upon. Instead, the decision was loosely linked to an ‘evaluation of the consequences for the financial support program’ of the planned restructuring of the Irish banks.

Adhering to a timetable agreed last November (see the Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, available at http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/articles/eu_economic_situation/pdf/2010-12-07-mefp_en.pdf), the Central Bank of Ireland, in consultation with private international advisors, has assessed individual institutions’ restructuring plans (involving severe deleveraging) and their capital and liquidity needs under economic ‘stress scenarios’. The findings are expected to be ‘transparently communicated’ this coming Thursday.

According to a poll run by Reuters, bank analysts’ estimates of the potential aggregate capital shortfall are in the region of EUR 25bn. This figure would fall short of the EUR 35bn provisioned for by the EC/IMF support package, but it would be much higher than the EUR 10bn initially earmarked for bank recapitalization. Since the extent of the losses is highly ‘endogenous’, the assumptions under which these numbers are calculated is crucial. A key input in any real estate valuation model is interest rates. Ireland is a ‘price taker’ (monetary policy is set by the ECB) and the domestic cost of funds correlates closely with sovereign risk. The latter, in turn, is heavily influenced by the health of the banks, making the problem circular.

A recapitalization of financial institutions through a further injection of public funds, calibrated under a conservative macroeconomic scenario and endorsed by the ECB, the IMF and private sector consultants of international standing, should work towards allaying concerns over bank solvency. But until the Irish economy stabilizes (the baseline case, let alone the stress scenario, will likely envisage further house price declines), banks’ funding will likely remain strained.

With around EUR 30bn worth of senior bonds maturing in 2011-12 (40% of which is not already government guaranteed) and under continued reduction of funding efficiency of the covered bond program, rolling over maturing debt remains indeed one of the biggest challenges faced by the Irish banks. So far, these have resorted extensively to the ECB and, when collateral did not conform with the ECB standards, directly to the Central Bank of Ireland through an emergency facility (ELA). Since these loans are short-term, however, refinancing risk has escalated.

According to the Irish press over the weekend, the ECB is soon set to unveil a ‘scheme’ to provide Irish banks access to ‘medium term’ funding. Although no official confirmation has come from Frankfurt yet, the fact that the authorities could have been working in this direction seems credible. To the extent that this enhanced facility provides more breathing room for banks to conduct their restructuring plans, it should reduce the risk of credit risk being passed over to the sovereign.

Nevertheless, as we suggested in the January issue of our Fixed Income Monthly, bank funding is likely to be slow to normalize post recapitalization, and public guarantees on senior bank debt could prove necessary for another 2-3 years (as is the case for those UK banks under the government’s guarantee scheme). Ideally, the latter could be supported directly by the EMU peers, via the EFSF for example, rather than via the State or the ECB. All this would allow time for orderly asset sales.

Other outstanding items include: (i) the treatment of the assets originally earmarked for NAMA 2, which the new government has declared it does not intend to pursue; and (ii) the treatment of ‘non core’ assets that are unlikely to find a buyer until the market has stabilized.

If tensions persist regardless of the initiatives outlined above, more radical solutions may be required. One could involve transferring troubled assets into a ‘run-off’ vehicle, where the banks would take a first loss. EMU partners, rather than the national Treasury, could provide credit enhancements to facilitate access to private capital over time. Granted, the transfer price of the troubled assets to the vehicle is a crucial element, as is the pricing of the insurance provided. But banks will have taken further write-downs and provisions, and undergone stress-tests.

Further policy shifts (lower EFSF borrowing rates for the Irish sovereign, lengthier funding by the ECB for the domestic banks) could alleviate some of the pressures that have lately built up depressing the value of Irish government bonds. A credit impairment of these securities remains in our view highly unlikely at least as long as the EC/IMF program is running. Nevertheless, we also think that the ‘non core’ EMU sovereign market is heading towards a greater segmentation between the small ‘outer peripherals’ (Ireland, Greece, and Portugal), and the higher rated and much more liquid issuers like Italy, Spain and Belgium. In light of this, Irish bonds will continue to exhibit high volatility, in our view.

 

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Sun, 03/27/2011 - 21:56 | 1107209 Bill D. Cat
Bill D. Cat's picture

The biggest problem with circle jerks is who gets stuck in the middle .

Sun, 03/27/2011 - 22:28 | 1107276 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

you remind me of a friend of mine.  i hope that's true.

Sun, 03/27/2011 - 21:57 | 1107213 insidious
insidious's picture

Tyler - off topic but thank goodness the radiation spike at Fukushima Reactor # 2 was "a mere 100,000 times normal levels for reactor coolant, not the 10 million times normal" originally reported.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/03/27/japan.nuclear.reactors/index...

Sun, 03/27/2011 - 21:57 | 1107217 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

The answer is simple, Leprechaun bucks. They could put this picture on the back:

 

http://images.paraorkut.com/img/pics/images/l/leprechaun_butt-12344.gif

Sun, 03/27/2011 - 22:00 | 1107221 Mark Noonan
Mark Noonan's picture

Really, guys, the cousins back in the auld sod are just sticking it to the Brits for 300 years of oppression...

Sun, 03/27/2011 - 22:18 | 1107247 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

Nonsense.

They are simply bargaining the end of the EU.

Get what you can while you can.

Sun, 03/27/2011 - 22:01 | 1107224 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Could Goldman be right this time?

Sun, 03/27/2011 - 22:17 | 1107246 Stu
Stu's picture

operation a pre-emptive strike, a warning against anything (Gulfo, Dinar) other than a petro-dollar considered as fiat ?

bankers sure didnt like Saddam Hussein

the Saddam treatment for selling oil in Euros ?

pics of gold dinar :

[link to translate.google.com]

Is Libya being bombed by bloody U.S. Zio thugs because Gaddafi wants to introduce gold dinar?

Publication time: 22 March 2011, 16:14

The present World Economic Crisis has forced a number of governments to consider introduction of an interstate gold currency, writes a minor Russian oligarch Sterligov on his blog.

Since gold yuan coinage was announced by China, talks about the gold standard had been brought up in the Middle East. The main initiator of non-payment in dollars and euros is the Leader and Guide of the Revolution in Libya, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi. He called on Arab and African world to adopt a single current - the gold dinar.

On this financial basis, Colonel Gaddafi offered to create a single African state with Arab and Black African population numbering 200 million people.

The idea of creating a single gold currency and uniting the countries of Africa into one powerful federal system has been actively supported during the last year by a number of Arabic and almost all African states. Democracy-infested South Africa and the Arab League opposed to the idea.

The US and the EU reacted very negatively to such a initiative. According to a French Zio "president" Sarkozy, "the Libyans have set on the financial security of mankind." Repeated calls by the Leader of the Libyan Revolution yields some results: Gaddafi has made more and more steps aimed at creating a United Africa.

Two false arguments have been invented to cover up the true reason for the present Zio-Christian Crusade against Libya: officially - "to defend human rights" and unofficially - an attempt to steal oil from the Libyan people. Both of these arguments do not hold up to scrutiny.

The truth is that Colonel Muammar Gaddafi decided to repeat the attempts by French General de Gaulle to abandon the use of U.S. junk paper money called "dollars" and return to gold, i.e. he attempts to attack the chief power of modern parasitic Zio Democracy - the banking system.

[link to www.kavkazcenter.com]

Sun, 03/27/2011 - 22:19 | 1107257 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

Goldman On Ireland And Paddy Paper: "Expect High Volatility"

That would be the the Goldman that is run in the EU by the Traitor and Irishman Peter Sutherland?

That Goldman?

Sun, 03/27/2011 - 22:41 | 1107319 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

it's the same goldman that seems to always have someone in federal court on the witness stand or defense table or whatever.

The Goldman chief said he had an "inkling" Gupta was gabbing about private boardroom matters,...

The testimony is interesting in many regards. "Inkling." It's an old-fashioned and particularly vague word -- the type lawyers like to feed clients,...

It's good Goldman's HQ is close to Federal court http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/it_good_goldman_hq_is_close_to_federal_tw91aZS3liIUFla9KLomaI#ixzz1HrH7XdGW
Sun, 03/27/2011 - 22:25 | 1107273 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"fun" indeed.  you know there's trouble when "America is an oasis."

Sun, 03/27/2011 - 22:35 | 1107290 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

 

"Irish bonds [ZH: aka Paddy Paper]"

British bonds [aka Limey Loans]

Italian bonds [aka Wop Wampum]

German bonds [aka Kraut Crap]

 

Sun, 03/27/2011 - 22:38 | 1107305 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

i still think the Irish of the 21st Century are going to back down

Sun, 03/27/2011 - 23:06 | 1107377 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Could Ireland be the start of the (forecast by some) global Jubilee?  Enquiring minds want to know.  We will soon see.

Yes, I know Iceland started the default chain, but it stayed pretty isolated.

Ireland telling bondholders to take the haircut or stick it would possibly destroy the Euro quickly.

Sun, 03/27/2011 - 23:36 | 1107479 squexx
squexx's picture

Maybe they'll just monetize the end of the rainbow?!?

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 01:45 | 1107720 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Time to run a XLF baltic overlay?

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 02:08 | 1107756 gwar5
gwar5's picture

The PIIGS need to play hardball and not take any shit from the EU or The Goldman Sack. GS cooked the books for Greece and Ireland. They probably took a short position,as always.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 02:37 | 1107787 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Requime. LETS get it done!

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 02:53 | 1107799 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Libya is a red herring as far as the “oil for gold” implementation.  The real threat is the GCC, which has yet to finalize the formulation of the common currency (complete fiat, or with fractional backing of gold and/or oil).  The credit crisis sort of screwed with the implementation timeline and pushed UAE out of immediate participation in the common currency.  Since the backing of the currency is a big public TBD, it can be used as leverage over oil importing governments in a less public fashion than switching off the spigot (the existential crisis in Saudi Arabia is the House of Saud’s control of the oil flow, not the physical existence of the a State on a given piece of real estate).  It is interesting to watch the pained contortions of the US administration in its efforts to avoid insulting or embarrassing the House of Saud over its intervention in Bahrain.  I guess Barry knows what it is like to be bent over a barrel.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 03:01 | 1107805 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

I'm tired. Time to move on. South China Sea. You posters are fantastic. women please keep posting. I am a man that loves a womans touch.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 05:13 | 1107907 Reptil
Reptil's picture

Dutch savers force bonus culture of bailed out bank to be abandoned:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/mar/27/dutch-bankers-bonuses-axe...

A sign of things to come?

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