Goldman On The ISM: "Composition Of The Report Was On Weaker Side"..."An Increase In Inventories Is Negative For Future Activity"
When even Goldman is downplaying the end all report which is certainly not all it is being touted to be, there is little that can be added:
BOTTOM LINE: The ISM beats expectations and rises in June. The details of the report, however, were weaker than the headline as more than half of the headline increase was due to an increase in inventories
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) rises unexpectedly in June, up 1.8 points to 55.3. As the median forecast and ourselves had looked for a decline, this is clearly an encouraging upside surprise. The composition of the report, however, was on the weaker side. Specifically, a sharp increase in the inventories index (from 48.7 to 54.1) explained 1.1 points of the 1.8 increase in the headline index. If anything, an increase in inventories is a negative for future activity. The remaining 0.7 point of the headline increase was due to small increases in new orders (by 0.6 point to 51.6), production (by 0.5 point to 54.5), supplier deliveries (0.6 point to 56.3) as well as a more sizable increase in employment (1.7 points to 59.9).
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