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Goldman Issues "Tactical" Long EURUSD Call With 1.37 Target And 1.285 Stop
Just out from Goldman's FX group: another "tactical" top tick call extraordinaire: "From an FX point of view we would go long EUR/$ at current levels of
1.3180 for an initial target of 1.37 with a 1-day stop on a close below
1.2850." Of course, that Goldman had a "strategic" 1.55 EURUSD target as the pair plunged by 1,500 pips is irrelevant. Time to take the other side of the trade (i.e., the same as Goldman's 50% margin prop desk).
Go tactically long EUR/$ on declining peripheral tensions, broad USD trend January 13, 2011
Our view has long been that European sovereign tensions will ultimately abate on a combination of better fiscal coordination, support from the strong Eurozone countries for the periphery, solid growth in the Eurozone as a whole and signs of reform success in the periphery. As we have highlighted as well, this process is not a linear one and temporary setbacks are likely, but also necessary to maintain the reform momentum.
The conditional lending program for Ireland and the ongoing debate about possible support also for Portugal and Spain increased the risk premium on the Euro in recent weeks. However it now appears increasingly likely that the Eurozone policymakers work on further improving the fiscal policy and support framework, though exact details have not transpired yet. Combined with messages of support form the largest global FX reserve holders, we think the risk premium in the Euro could further decline from currently elevated levels.
On the other side, we continue to see US fundamentals as consistent with further gradual USD depreciation. Large current account and fiscal “Twin Deficits” will likely remain an obstacle to strong investment inflows into the US. Moreover, we think with US demand growth at least partially boosted by fiscal stimulus, external imbalances could worsen further from a cyclical standpoint.
Overall, it appears the balance of risks points to further tactical upside in EUR/$. Yesterday we recommended going long German stocks (and implicitly long EUR there) and in today’s Global Market Views Francesco Garzarelli added a short 5-yr Eonia recommendation to the list.From an FX point of view we would go long EUR/$ at current levels of 1.3180 for an initial target of 1.37 with a 1-day stop on a close below 1.2850.
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the kiss of death...
Hilarious. On the same day that we discover China is selling Euros with one hand while buying them with the other.
Blankfein: "Oh shit! Whaddaya mean 'everyone knows' China's dumping Euros? Pump em back up! PUMP 'EM NOW I SAID!"
will allow Germany that Movement , Goldman?
Of course they would make this call.....to keep the lights on at L. Blankfein Wildest Dreams Park [oil futures], of course. This is not a new call, however.
This is about shorting the USD stud man and making billions on oil. Make no mistake about it.
Okay...enter the "peak oil" crowd....
Whole Euros are transferred to USD,CHF and Hard assets...other thing is creating a illusionary world.
Euro fair value with 5 countries in current default is like 0.75 vs USD...not 1.30¡¡¡¡¡¡
Yes, but like I said, FX trades are entirely random...they are made to cause certain algorithms to go nuts, making wild assed commodity dreams come true.
You are correct...fundamentally, the Euro should be absolutely plummeting...but what is it doing? It is romping as the king of the criminal syndicate bankers makes an unbelievably stupid call on the Euro dollar. And maybe it works...because they have enough money to make the Euro sit up, shake, and beg.
Another day in the tortured wasteland that Ben Bernanke made.
+1
GS how rectum monest they are. 1000 pip spread is so CYA.
Hold on a second . Last weekend Goldman published an FX forecast stating that the Euro was a likely sell around the 1.3250 area and that the USD Index was looking constructive . 4 days later and they're flip flopping ?
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/charts-matter-fx-next-week
+1
"...If the recent consolidation is viewed as a classic
triangle consolidation the extension target would be
482 pips (0.0482/4.82 big figures) from the break
point (the trend across the lows) at the time the
market breaks lower. Therefore if the market broke
down today the target would be 1.2626. ..."
May as well change their mind on "the next week's action" every other day, so they'll ensure a 50% predictive success rate.
Just when I thought the EUR was going to rally, Goldman agrees. Crap.
Shorting the Euro! Thanks again for the free money Goldman.
long story short: Goldman Sucks
LOL@ Quinvarius!
Guess I can put my EUO calls back on?
It's amazing that one can simply do the opposite of what Goldman publicly says every time. Anyone have a study showing the win/lose ratio on doing that over the last year or twenty?
Ummm...you do know that the Euro has moved 3 cents against the dollar in 1.4 sessions, right? So where does the belief that you can do the opposite of GS come from...because that is one big currency move in such a short period of time.
You let me know when you are going short the Euro...because I cannot imagine being able to pick a number on that trade...since it is entirely random.
EURUSD
Grrr...
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/01/eurusd_13.html
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts-0
I don't know why Goldman issues advice about the Fx market. They can't control its prices as well as equities or bonds, so why do they bother? How can you front-run your own clients if you can't even control the darn prices??
Nice charts 99er crisp, clear... Ben's engorged channel.
Could Goldman be right this time?
133. 75 was the high, see the chart above where were headed. Like Tyler's bait and switch from China.. If you were going to buy , would you announce it to the entire World beforehand?
'Buy' means gmtfo.. China has been buying resources around the World w/out mention.
Short the Euro at Mkt with a stop at $133.85 filled at @ 133.60 Let make robo some $$.