Goldman Keeps Its NFP/Unemployment Estimates Unchanged: -25,000 And 10.1%, Says This Is A U- Not A V-Shaped Recession

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Thu, 02/04/2010 - 20:14 | 218160 Instant Karma
Instant Karma's picture

An interesting read. Did I miss the part on the continuous shedding of jobs due to a deflationary spiral brought about by increasing unemployment, decreasing demand, and decreasing tax revenues, leading to higher tax rates.

A depression, not a cyclical recession.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 01:13 | 218510 Dr o love
Dr o love's picture

I'll take the under on the GS prediction of -25K.  They were busy shorting the market today IMO and will likely make a bundle when the S & P drops 50 handles tomorrow.  Who in their right mind would go clown long for the weekend given what's happened in the last 2 days? 

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 20:19 | 218168 Gloomy
Gloomy's picture

This market is the Street holding government hostage. Either stop trying to regulate me and resume feeding me with easy credit or I'm going all the way down.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 20:20 | 218173 lawton
lawton's picture

It will be a double dip only because of trillions of dollars of fake money but they will have to admit its a depression after the next dip finally...

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 20:25 | 218181 lawton
lawton's picture

Has anyone done the math on how the 800K+ job loss adjustment will affect the numbers ?

The real number is 1.7 million+ off but they wont do the other current 900K+ adjustment until a year from now I guess.

 

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 20:32 | 218195 exportbank
exportbank's picture

I don't think it will be V or U rather \______/

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 21:40 | 218292 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

that's a B from bathtub

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 21:45 | 218304 deadhead
deadhead's picture

how about

\____________

                      \

                        \

                          \

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 22:35 | 218361 Lothar the Rott...
Lothar the Rottweiler's picture

And now even deadhead is pissing on us.  Wasn't the gov pissing on us enough for you, man? :-)

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 21:47 | 218308 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The frying pan recession.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 20:38 | 218202 Rainman
Rainman's picture

These boyz still have their rear view mirrors working......keying off the " past recessionary cycles ". 

They will never, never ever concede to the structural depression until all four tires have shredded. And so it is.... they'll just keep driving and constructing hunch recovery forecasts.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 21:47 | 218309 deadhead
deadhead's picture

......keying off the " past recessionary cycles

yep.....absolutely.correct.

 

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 20:39 | 218203 QuantTrader
QuantTrader's picture

goldman talking its book.  the V has already begun,  its just not a straight V

 

dow will finish year at 12,000.  too much liquidity.  hatzius can suck my u-shaped nuts

 

 

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 20:47 | 218217 reading
reading's picture

good luck with that

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 20:52 | 218226 QuantTrader
QuantTrader's picture

thanks.  i made the dow 11k call jan 15 2009.  granted there was a decent drawdown, but the result was nearly spot on.  

 

you gold bugs have no thesis if stocks dont inflate.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 22:55 | 218375 reading
reading's picture

Wow, you're amazing...are you a real quant trader?  I mean wow.  

 

Ummm, btw how do you know who's a gold bug?

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 00:33 | 218484 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Ahahah. Really? Reeeeeaaalllly?

Have you ever been on this site?

Recognition FAIL

Ignorance WIN

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 02:21 | 218561 dnarby
dnarby's picture

Maybe.

But if so, it won't be priced in dollars, it will be priced in some new currency.

All the old ones are dead paper walking.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 20:52 | 218225 lawton
lawton's picture

What ? I think we see dow 5000 before we ever see dow 12000 - 10 years or more from now....

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 01:19 | 218514 Dr o love
Dr o love's picture

I think you have one too many zero's in that DOW 12000 prediction.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 20:40 | 218208 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Ssshhh, no one tell Leo.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 20:53 | 218227 Frumundacheeze
Frumundacheeze's picture

It will be neither a U or a V, it will be a \____/\______________.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 21:00 | 218236 QuantTrader
QuantTrader's picture

it wont be a U.  It will be a:

 

....................../´¯/) 
....................,/¯../ 
.................../..../ 
............./´¯/'...'/´¯¯`·¸ 
........../'/.../..../......./¨¯\ 
........('(...´...´.... ¯~/'...') 
.........\.................'...../ 
..........''...\.......... _.·´ 
............\..............( 
..............\.............\... 

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 21:04 | 218242 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The Zerohedge museum of fine arts....

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 21:10 | 218252 jm
jm's picture

Nice.  Lotsa artistry in that bird...

Thanks, I needed a good laugh.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 21:31 | 218276 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Duly copied and emailed on to legions.  Well done!

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 00:21 | 218476 Scarecrow
Scarecrow's picture

I believe that's a F-U shaped recession! Nice!

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 21:07 | 218248 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

It's a trap.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 21:13 | 218253 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Herbert Obama Hoover

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 21:19 | 218262 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

A veeee recovery "___/\___"

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 21:20 | 218263 10044
10044's picture

it will be toilet shaped.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 23:44 | 218430 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

It will be 'coffin' shaped.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 21:22 | 218267 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The letter they need to get familiar with is the letter L

as in the next drop will bottom and stay at a lower level

|
|
|____ WELCOME TO A STEADY STATE ECONOMY

where Frugality is the new Reality

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 02:50 | 218584 merehuman
merehuman's picture

anon 218267 , nail on head.  

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 21:23 | 218268 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

LOL yea, in what font exactly does a "U" look like \__________________/

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 21:40 | 218294 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Someone please help me with this...If the FED keeps interest rates at near ZERO for 2010 and 2011 like this note says, isnt that a virtual guarantee for MAJOR INFLATION? I understand we have deflation now, but it seems like we are being set up so when we finally leave the deflationary spiral, we just enter into an inflationary one right after. What do you think?

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 21:49 | 218312 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Who says it will ever recover? Every day that passes oil gets drained out of the planetary tank and with no economic activity, there is no funding for the supposed miracle that will replace it in 18 wheelers.

Planet Earth, sans oil, can support about 900 million humans. There are 6.8B now.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 00:18 | 218471 What a mess_man
What a mess_man's picture

Hey a peak-oiler (i.e ultra-doomer!)  Man this community is great - like everyone is here now!

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 21:52 | 218314 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

It will be an IV recession.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 21:55 | 218319 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

As the market tanks and all hell breaks loose again, the next round of Fed QE will be restrained at $6+ trillion (a nod to hawks). That's Hoover-level tight policy given this calamity (Great Depression only had a one-decade bubble, we had 3). So down we'll go again after a bear rally unless the Fed is willing to go ~ $15+ trillion with US sovereign to AA+.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 21:56 | 218323 Instant Karma
Instant Karma's picture

Lets be honest: at this point, things are unravelling again. No one knows how far or how long the unraveling will go, or, over what time course. I don't believe this depression is comparable to the generic post-war recessions because of the collapse of the housing market, the banking system, and the job market. The sovereign debt explosion to buffer the economic collapse just complicates the time course of the depression. In short, there is no sign of a self sustaining recovery, although, some companies are doing well and have lots of cash and competitive moats (tech). But as the unravelling continues. people are forced to sell to cover margin calls and losses in other positions. So quality of a position doesn't matter in a sharp downdraft. People are forced to sell.

Fri, 02/05/2010 - 00:41 | 218490 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

And gold? They are forced to sell GOLD?!?! Jeezus.

Like zerohedge has... Not espoused, spam and bullets.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 21:56 | 218324 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Not a U, an eff-U.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 21:59 | 218331 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

If you're going to reprint bullshit from Goldman then I think you owe it to the readers to include all the Goldman disclaimers.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 23:04 | 218399 JR
JR's picture

Here’s some Goldman insight from Marc Faber “after his recent and widely disseminated quip on CNBC that ‘Obama makes Bush look like a genius.’" It's from Faber lashes out — again | ft.com/alphaville | Feb. 3, 2010.

FT quotes Faber’s latest GloomBoomDoom market commentary on "how the US can get out of its debt trap." Says FT: “The irrepressible pundit concludes that the US has basically two choices: default on obligations or massively monetize US debts and reduce the debt through inflation.” Here's Faber:

The baleful reality is that big banks, the freakish offspring of the Fed’s easy money, are dangerous institutions, deeply embedded in a bull market culture of entitlement and greed…..

During the recent quarter, for instance, the preponderance of Goldman Sachs’ revenues came from trading in bonds, currencies and commodities. But these profits were no evidence of Mr Market doing God’s work, greasing the wheels of commerce and trade by facilitating productive financial transactions.

In fact, they represented the fruits of hyperactive gambling in the Fed’s monetary casino – a place where the inside players obtain their chips at no cost from the Fed-controlled money markets, and are warned well in advance, by obscure wording changes in the Fed’s policy statements, about any pending shift in the gambling odds.

To be sure, the most direct way to cure the banking systems’ ills would be to return to a rational monetary policy based on sensible interest rates, and an end to frantic monetization of federal debt and a stable exchange value for the dollar.”

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/02/03/139991/faber-lashes-out-again...

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 22:08 | 218336 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

What if the Fed tried to sell assets and no one was interested in buying?

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 22:29 | 218355 Catullus
Catullus's picture

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aiVDMt5QM3cs&pos=2

I'm sure Marla is all over it.  It's really getting fun now.

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 22:36 | 218362 trillion_dollar...
trillion_dollar_deficit's picture

ZIRP4EVA 

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 22:41 | 218367 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

From Jan Hatzius on December 28, 2009

"Hatzius, 41, estimates the economy will expand 2.4 percent in 2010, and his 2.5 percent first-quarter growth forecast is half the pace Maki anticipates...the Goldman team forecasts "subpar growth" next year because "employers will be reluctant to hire" and households will exhibit "a bias toward higher saving."

 

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/dec2009/pi20091228_293615.h...

Thu, 02/04/2010 - 22:42 | 218368 EconomicDisconnect
EconomicDisconnect's picture

The number tomorrow has to be a + print and thus it will be.  Rally time!!!!!

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