Goldman Lowers 2011 GDP Forecast

Tyler Durden's picture

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ZeroPower's picture

You called this months back Tyler, kudos.

 

Wow, main thesis is no rate hikes before 2013. That's pretty ridiculous, i suppose it fits in just fine into the "next crash before the end of the decade" scenario. Free money till 2013, cheap money till 2014; a few years of boom, then 2018 = 2008 and we spend the next 3 years all clusterfucked wondering "WHAT HAPPENED?!1!!12" and blaming the bankers yet all along its the free money policy of the fucking fed.

Bringin It's picture

You do realize the Fed is the bankers?  You seemed to have something to say.

... wondering "WHAT HAPPENED?!1!!12" and blaming the bankers yet all along its the free money policy of the fucking fed.

Bringin It's picture

And nice piece of work TD.  Amazing to see someone outrun the frontrun.

I learn so much here.  Thanks.

Long-John-Silver's picture

Great Depression II Bitchez!

Threeggg's picture

While Goldman is blaming the weather..............

Check out the weather at the Fukushima plant live.

Hows that weather look ?

http://www.youtube.com/user/tbsnewsi?feature=feedlss#p/l/-ZPYlazljME

and yes thats a real time live feed !

cossack55's picture

Em' are some smokin' hot pics.

Threeggg's picture

Reactor#3 has deteriorated alot since last night. If you watch that feed for a while you are more than likely to see an earthquake. The camera shakes violently and the live feed has sound as well. http://www.youtube.com/user/tbsnewsi?feature=feedlss#p/l/-ZPYlazljME

Wish us all luck that somehow (although I doubt) they find a solution. There is supposed to be the largest radioactive release since this nightmare began tomorrow May 8th according to a leaked email from TEPCO.

They are going to vacate the containment vessels of radiation saturated air so the "Liquidators" can go in and work in 10 minute stints. Last reports are they have 1700 liquidators on the ready and are looking for another 1300.

 http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2011/05/fukushima-i-nuke-plant-may-8-release-of.html

Happy Mothers day ! Biatchez !

cossack55's picture

I assume you are following enenews and fairewinds?

cossack55's picture

I can only assume that anyone listens to GS because they realize that GS is the Gubment.

 

They are expecting unemplyment to drop because of the death/death cycle (no, not businesses)?

FOC 1183's picture

Well, only 150bps til they get to the 2% that will be the actual post-revision print.

lordcoke's picture

i luv how they have formulae for fed speak.

oldmanagain's picture

On the other hand, GS predicts higher oil prices which have preceded most turn downs. Although, trying to pin down the real GS opinion is getting tougher each utterance.

Don't think the resource scarcities are going to subside.  Too many people chasing too few resources. declining resources at that. Long term econ slow down until we are forced to adjust or kill each other. Looks as if volatility will be the playground with a long term higher price trend as segments of the world get priced out.

We are used to national cycles, we now have international cycles.  Due to our time slot, most of the world's news is while we are asleep.  

The big trade remains short gov't bonds, selectively around the world as competition for refinancing intensifies.  The risk on era in financials has exceeded all rational numbers, Euro nations are just the canaries in this bottomless mine.

Does anyone really believe QE's, the world over, will not come home to roost.  Add in declining natural resources, the perfect storm.  Corporate interests may own most world governments, but having drained, indebted the consumer, will have to crush each other.

Bringin It's picture

Nice, yet unfortunate summary.  Find life outside the global economy seems to me the most fullfilling trade of the two thousand and teens.

zaknick's picture

Goldman joo scum!

topcallingtroll's picture

There he is again.

The guy from Colombia who hates Amerikkka and posted he hopes they drop a nuclear bomb on us.

This country is so terrible that he prefers living here to Colombia.

If you want to complain about injustice, corruption, and racism against native minorities you can find plenty of that where you are from.

You are such the hypocrite.

topcallingtroll's picture

Hey i got an idea. If Amerikkka is so terrible maybe there is a more enlightened place for you to live.......maybe Colombia?

He gave his country of origin away when he said he was from a place where CIA paramilitaries controlled the drug trade and that Xe corporation was going to start operating soon.

Just remember we know you now, my little tanned friend. Acuerdate que las Colombianas prefieren carne norteamericano. Hombres reales, en vez de Colombianitos como ti.

cossack55's picture

Of course he might be from El Paso.

vote_libertarian_party's picture

Here's my forecast.

 

Debt ceiling compromise does nothing to reduce the deficit.

 

Early fall, S+P downgrades US debt

 

Chaos ensues

mayhem_korner's picture

Agree with #1.

Agree in sentiment with #2, but not by S&P.  Once the initially-covert QE3 is revealed, the masses will flee from the dollar in accelerated fashion, effectively a market downgrade...

...and the currently almost-palpable chaos will unleash itself (#3).

Real GDP 0.5% by Q3, then negative...DXY at 65 or less by Christmas...Q2 inflation 2.8%, 4.5% by year end...Dow crash to 9K by Labor Day, then bouncing around between 9 and 10K..."official" unemployment at 9.3% for year...all bets off in 2012.

 

Alex Kintner's picture

What does GDP matter anyway? It's only a measure of how well the Morbidly Rich are doing.  They keep reporting the Recession ended in 2009 -- but for who? For The Banker Bonus crowd maybe.

cossack55's picture

Some like to use it as a measure of debt, i.e., US debt is 100% of GDP. Useless, really. Japan is at about 220%. So what. Keep on printing. 

I prefer Bhutan's measure...GDH  Gross Domestic Happiness

I would think GDH in the US is -93%.

Bringin It's picture

Right.  Nice to see someone refer to GDH.  Bhutan, like Norway seem to have their act together in that the governments seem to act in the interests of the governed. 

 

Traianus Augustus's picture

And the joke continues...like it was funny the first thousand times.  US has become the laughingstock of the world!

The Heart's picture

WHY IS ZEROHEDGE CENSORING AND DELETING ALL FUKUSHIMA RELATED POSTS? WHY IS THERE NO MORE REPORTING ON THIS ONGOING ISSUE?

 

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Nothing Fukushima related has been censored or deleted.

slewie the pi-rat's picture

negative growth, even w/ inflation. fuk_u'd. 

the US, Japan, EU, China.  once "the jitters...subside..." and the gobbermint gets fiscally responsible, we'll get the 4% back, just watch! 

even cramer wouldn't buy what hazmat is selling, here.  

this has gone, now, from what is the FED gonna do, to what can the FED do?  listen to timmah.  carefully.  he has a plan.  raise the debt ceiling, and print.  print here.  print now.  print, PRINT, PRINT!

they killed goldie!  R.I.P. 

Bringin It's picture

Cheers slewie for saying what can't be said.  Micheal too.

Goldman Hufs's picture

 

Tyler,

Long time reader, first time poster.  Love the website and the information it provides.  I think a lot can be learned from the articles and comments while sitting on the sidelines until your understanding, arguments, and opinions have time to develop.  As with anything that exponentially grows in popularity there is going to be an influx of subscribers - some of which enrich the community while others either intentionally or through ignorance distract from the arguments at hand and create interference.  Over the past two months I've noticed a large amount of new participants that appear to hear about the website, immediately create a profile, and then start out by asking remedial questions (most of which can be figured out by taking a few days if they took the time to read the comments) or launching personal attacks that have little to do with the underyling post.  As I am one for diversity I welcome all new commentators whether basic or advanced.  However, I miss the days when I came to the website and 9 out of 10 comments were backed up with charts, statistics, and other tangible references to give an opinion more credibility whether I agreed with it or not.   That is why I am suggesting that you create a "veterans" filter or separate chain that can only be posted by people who have had an account for a certain period of time, a number of posts or a combination of the two.  This would still enable anyone and everyone to participate but help those of us here who know the lingo, the concepts, and market structures to cut through some of the static.

 

AG BCN's picture

and what does this post have to do with Goldman's GDP forecast?

Hephasteus's picture

You should write him a topic police ticket. Make him pay in hours of detention.

ZeroPower's picture

Normally i disagree with you, but this was a fine lol sir.

Whatta's picture

My forecast...

China ditching 2/3rds of their US$ reserves and QE3 in early 2012 sticks a bottle rocket up Ben's inflationometer leading to a 1 for 10 reverse split in the US$.

The Mississippi River Floods, the TX fires, the MS, AL tornadoes are all blamed on al qaida and we must therefore invade Nicaragua to get the cells residing there (nope, those are not new huge offshore oil prospects in Nic).

 

SWRichmond's picture

SIlver forward rates negative: http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/gold-price-price-of-...

Keep firing until the target changes shape or catches fire.

cossack55's picture

Since it is Saturday I  get to grease myself up and roll around in my ASEs (all in AirTites) naked and dream of Blythe in a hot-air ballon with no ballast and unlimited fuel.

Pepe's picture

Goldman is one of the MASTERS. But not the only one.Our Government is the puppet. Obama,Bush,Clinton, Bush,Reagan, work(ed) for the Masters. We are the fools. The object of experimentation.The rats on the treadmill

cossack55's picture

If you understand that, you are no longer the fool.  You are now a player on the sidelines waiting to re-enter the game and bring death and destruction to the vampire squid. Congratulations.

silberblick's picture

Hey Guys,

Here's a hilarious animation exhorting folks to get even against the banksters and government:

http://thesilvergoldhedge.blogspot.com/2011/05/join-sla-to-get-even-and-...

Ben Dover's picture

The entire "buy silver/sink JPM" idea actually left me suspicious of buying silver - not that I buy much anyway. I got the idea it was started and promoted by people who stood to make money by artificially inflating the silver market, people who were not really interested in the situations of either myself or JPM. 

For a movement to get traction and take off in a market, it has to be innate or "natural" to the market, methinks. And the bs/sJPM movement just seemed too contrived.

Bringin It's picture

Ben, the premise is that it is not a "natural" market.  You are misssing the premise. 

Franken_Stein's picture
A Gold for Goldman! With 134 Laps, Lloyd Blankfein Wins Secret Southampton Swim Race

 

http://www.observer.com/2010/wall-street/gold-goldman-134-laps-lloyd-bla...

 

Ok, this is a bit old news that I dug up here, but we have to systematically rummage around in GS top dogs' private life in order to find some clues and evidence.

 

topcallingtroll's picture

Hey Mr Stein

Will the germans be willing to subsidize the south forever? Perhaps by monetizing greek bonds?

If the germans will not stand for a permanent subsidy to greece and portugal what is the end game? When does it happen?

AG BCN's picture

The end game comes when Spain goes, the Germans are not feeling the pain right now so they will muddle through. When Spain does go down (and it will, just ask Reggie) then the severity will hit home because the numbers quoted for the bail out will be spelled out in numbers of new schools, hospitals that the Germans can not have due to paying for the lazy southern neighbours who all retired at 50. Then we go for the 2 tier Euro and all hell breaks loose on the announcement. I can't wait. As for when, NFI..

topcallingtroll's picture

So the germans will permanently subsidize the south forever as long as spanish debt remains stable, i conclude from the above two posts.

Franken_Stein's picture

 

What the German people wants and what the government is doing are two different pair of shoes.

 

Wait for the German constitutional court's ruling on the lawsuits filed by Profs. iur.  Schachtschneider, Starbatty and Hankel against the EFSF.

The Maastricht Treaty stated clearly that there cannot be a bailout of one country of Eurozone by another.

If the Bundesverfassungsgericht deems the ad-hoc bailouts of Greece and Ireland and the permanent bailouts via EFSF unconstitutional, then of course this means the end of the Euro or a two-tier Euro.

 

Otherwise there will be a full Transferunion and the installation of a economic council, whose task it will be to streamline and unify the national governments economic policy in order to converge the seemingly diverging national economies.

 

But what can one do with one little Napoleon and one Casanova, like Sarkozy and Berlusconi at the helm of 2 other big European countries, who seem to be more interested in their own private life rather than constructively contributing to a pragmatic solution to the debt problem.

Let's not forget that Sarkozy is close friend of the Rothschilds and Stephen Schwarzman, who will try to meddle into European affairs.

Sarkozy was mayor of Neuilly-sur-Seine, where the French branch of the Rothschilds also reside.

 

Again the Jews trying to exploit others. Sigh. Will this never end ?

Currently Schwarzman is in Paris, where he owns a house.

 

Then there is this Goldman Sucks Draghi guy, likely future ECB head, which for me still is a big unknown.

Then there's the "True Finns".

 

A multivectorial attack on the Euro.

Many a hunter are the rabbits death, as they say.

On the other hand a lot of vested interests and careers in Brussels dependent on the Euro, who will certainly fight tooth and nail to keep it.

 

They'll probablly try to tinker with the naming and definition of the "bailout", maybe they'll nudge the one or other constitutional judge in the side, although I must say contrary to the SCOTUS, the BVerfG has a history of total neutrality and independence and more often than not has ruled against governments and chancellors.

 

One thing is clear:

If this bailout is just meant to cover banks' exposure to sovereign debt with bailed-out countries just middlemen, gaining nothing from it, then there'll be serious backlash against governments, not just here in Germany.

 

If not then maybe Germans could barely live with it and just swallow this bitter pill.

What we would like to see is the total ban of CDS throughout Europe.

 

CDS is just another form of tail wagging the dog through a paper derivative.

A self-fulfilling prophecy where big market players can just buy insurance on a sovereign debt that they aren't exposed to and then create the fake illusion of trouble where there's no trouble or at least not with the magnitude that the CDS price seems to indicate.

 

It's a fraud, just like paper silver, courtesy of Mme. Blythe.

 

Ackermann will have to flee back to Switzerland and hide in his bunker under the Alps. ;-)

But only after he has made Jain successor.

 

Bringin It's picture

Also thanks for the post.

I have a question though.

I remember a while ago, that guy at the Telegraph - A.E.P. was saying the same thing and the court ruled against the plaintifs.  Is this an appeal?

... maybe they'll nudge the one or other constitutional judge in the side, although I must say contrary to the SCOTUS, the BVerfG has a history of total neutrality and independence and more often than not has ruled against governments and chancellors.

Ivar Kreuger's picture

Goldman: "While GDP in Q1 was only +1.8% we are confident that once the Bernake turns off the liquidity hose, and that steady 5 billion a day is no longer injected into the market,  GDP will increase substantially by at least 2%"

ROFL

Double-dip snitches, get ready.

steveo's picture

how can you tell when Goldman is lying?  70% is what they say is misdirection.

Another matter--

To use or not to use Stops?

Think if you were long silver futures and has no stop in place? You could have theoretically vaporized a $200k account in the Silver debacle.

However, stops are dangerous also. Esp. since your stop information is usually "sold" from broker to broker so those who run the stops know what their equity curve will look like. No, it is not fair, not proper, not really even morally close to correct, but it is the way it is. The levels of corruption on other matters of even higher magnitude and clarity mean that the issue of your stops being published and sold to the highest bidder will not be one that is addressed soon. 

More stuff on stops here

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2011/05/stops.html

RobotTrader's picture

As of right now, the stock market is pricing in an economic boom in 2012.

Until these retail stocks break, there is absolutely nothing bearish being priced into equities right now.