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Goldman On The NFP Number - "Little Underlying Improvement...Productivity Gains Have Diminished Sharply"

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Fri, 04/02/2010 - 09:53 | 284182 Hephasteus
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Woo good jobs report. I'm glad the banks have the ability to track all the money and know who's getting  a paychec cause they are so honest.

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 09:53 | 284183 Missing_Link
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Anyone want to take a guess as to whether Goldman is using double-reverse, triple-reverse, or quadruple-reverse psychology with this one?

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 11:03 | 284277 tenaciousj
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I got lost somewhere between the 5th and 6th head fake to the left (or was it right) after the double-spin.

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 11:43 | 284343 BlackBeard
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bottom line: they want rates to stay low.

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 12:51 | 284399 Cognitive Dissonance
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"March Shows Little Underlying Improvement But Other Data Firm"

Translation - The corpse is cold but the artificially enhanced breasts are still firm. 

Sat, 04/03/2010 - 12:11 | 285129 Igor AKA 990
Igor AKA 990's picture

Ive been suspect of that all along.  I have a feeling they are crushing it in the EUR/USD. 

they are just double talking...

the house always wins

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 09:58 | 284190 sweet ebony diamond
sweet ebony diamond's picture

give this goldman guy a big fucking bonus.

i like his attitude.

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 10:11 | 284205 Cookie
Cookie's picture

Comment from the Fed?? Aren't they responsible for US (un)employment??

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 10:14 | 284207 AccreditedEYE
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I'm sure we'll be up 1000 points on Monday. Does data really mean anything anymore?

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 10:21 | 284218 Cursive
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I'm not so sure.  It's a long weekend.  A lot can happen.  Then again, a gap and crap would be awesome.

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 10:30 | 284230 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

Stock futures have been rallying since the release with DJIA up 35, NAZ up 9.5, despite the dollar being up sharply also. This is pig heaven for Bernanke... he's got the guys at 133 Liberty gunning futures while everybody else is home drinking coffee (or whatever). Must be great to have a monopoly where those damn equity traders can't even place a trade.. maybe he can get Obama to shut down the cash markets permanently... then we'd see DJIA 36,000 pretty damn quick!

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 10:17 | 284210 Bob
Bob's picture

"March Shows Little Underlying Improvement But Other Data Firm"

WTF is the significance of "Other Data" and what might that data be?  Equities relentlessly gunned by the PTP? 

Titanic crew: "Captain, the water cotinues to pour over the bulkheads, but the band is still playing and deck chairs remain securely in place."

Love Goldman's tone of "responsibly cautious" optimism here.  Extend and pretend. 

What a crock.  Official average hourly earnings for those still working down 1.8% YoY. 

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 10:20 | 284217 Monoki
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So job growth is still sluggish.  And now Goldman thinks that productivity is diminishing.  Meanwhile, the Squid just notched down Q1 EPS estimates on banks.

Next up with be Goldman taking down its ridiculous 2010 EPS estimate on the S&P 500 of $78, or a 33% increase, to something more doable...say $70.  And $70 multiplied by a historical forward P/E ratio of 16 is 1120.

But we're still going to 1300, right AJC?

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 11:00 | 284269 Hephasteus
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No it's hiding behind servants. Goldman and all the top people are trying to portrait a bad scenario while they get their servants to pump sunshine up everyone ass trying to make the sunshine appear to be a rebellion against the horrible goldman reality and that they are being outcreated.

They'll try to pull in new unknown people to be part of the sunshine under some sort of guise that they are relenting to other powers. I betya april is full of unknown faces and new voices on the CNBC.

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 10:24 | 284221 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Yup, average working hours up slightly, average hourly pay DOWN slightly.

Off-the back-end-of-the-unemployed-because-they've-been-unemployed-so-long, UP 3.2% to 44.1%.

All good for the stock markets...isn't it?


Fri, 04/02/2010 - 10:55 | 284262 AccreditedEYE
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I don't mean to be too "conspiracy minded" here..(is that possible on ZH? :)  ) but don't they HAVE to eventually bring the market down big to defend ZIRP? Won't the inflation hawks get nuts watching equity and commodity markets keep breaking out? If the Squid keeps equities headed for DOW 36,000 how in the hell do you defend ZIRP?

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 10:59 | 284268 SteveNYC
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Productivity was never really there. The average US worker bee is not productive, and the workplace is a haven for narcissists making their massive weaknesses appear as strengths to the unobservant.

Squeezing additional hours out of unproductive worker bees is not a healthy way to pull an economy forward.

Good luck all!

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 11:11 | 284296 Fritz
Fritz's picture

Equities will soon be celebrating Stimulus 2.0 and QE 2.0 without regard to sustainability.  Futures will get gunned to shape psychology.

I miss the old days when reality mattered.


Fri, 04/02/2010 - 13:59 | 284474 Dirtt
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You know it's bad when you long for the days of reading 10K's into the wee hours of the night.

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 11:35 | 284330 Augustus
Augustus's picture

It will be interesting to see if the withholding receipts come close to matching this report.

Fri, 04/02/2010 - 12:25 | 284373 Lux Fiat
Lux Fiat's picture

Not really related, but was watching "Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room".  There was a comment that Jeffrey Skilling made during a very friendly interview during or shortly after the California energy "crisis".

  Skilling:  "We are doing the right thing."

  Interviewer "You're the good guys." (not phrased as a question, but as a very soft setup)

  Skilling:  "We are the good guys.  We are on the side of angels."

  Given Lloyd Blankfein's not so distant claims to deistic preference in work, it does make me wonder.  When CEOs start claiming divine mandates, does it mean that things are really screwed up under the hood, and the public just doesn't have a clue yet?


Fri, 04/02/2010 - 14:02 | 284476 Dirtt
Dirtt's picture

Nice work.  Had no idea Skilling said that.


Fri, 04/02/2010 - 18:22 | 284711 Lux Fiat
Lux Fiat's picture

I'm no forensic accountant, and financial entity accounting is far from a strength of mine, but from my non-expert vantage point, it is interesting that total operating cash flow from 2007 - 2009 is negative. ($48.875 b in 2009, $1,894 b 2008, -$68.197 b in 2007).  I'm sure that's why Blankfein gets paid the big bucks.  That's not the case with BAC or JPM - although can't say that I have read their statements and footnotes though.  Citi is pretty ugly.  We'll see if the gov't share offerring goes swimmingly.



Fri, 04/02/2010 - 13:25 | 284436 Orly
Orly's picture

Sounds a lot like Jan Hatzius.

He is usually right on the money.


Fri, 04/02/2010 - 15:48 | 284592 Blithering ORSA
Blithering ORSA's picture

One subtlety I noticed in the other NFP was a $0.01 drop in hourly earnings.   If total employment went up, that means we are creating lots of low-paying jobs....

Sat, 04/03/2010 - 14:00 | 285193 Clycntct
Clycntct's picture

I'm late to this thread but if anybody is watching  could someone steer me to a updated chart on the exhaustion rate.

This one below was from 09

Exhaustion Rate Hits New Record: More Than Half Of Unemployed Exhaust Benefits Before Finding A Job

Sat, 04/10/2010 - 10:54 | 294528 mark456
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