Goldman On The Philly Fed Miss, Which Comes At +1 vs. Exp Of +2
Mid-Atlantic Factory Activity Shows Little Change: Philly Fed factory survey improves slightly in October; both it and Conf Board's leading indicators index in line with expectations.
Philadelphia Fed index +1.0 in Oct vs. GS flat, median forecast +2.0.
Leading indicators +0.3% in Sep vs GS and consensus +0.3%.
1. The Philadelphia Fed's monthly manufacturing survey for October improved slightly, with the headline index rising just into positive territory for the first time in three months. The key new orders and inventories indexes both showed modest improvement -- new orders were up from -8.1 to -5.0, while the inventories index declined to -18.6 from -16.7 (with lower values 'better' for this index). The shipment index improved from -7.1 to +1.4.
2. The survey suggested margin pressure, with the prices paid index rising to 31.5 while the prices received index remained well in negative territory (-9.0). The gap of over 40 points is near the-all time extreme for this survey, although prices paid index in particular can move a lot from month to month.
3. The Conference Board's index of leading indicators rose 0.3%, as expected. The biggest positive contributors were rate spreads, lower jobless claims, and growth in the money supply respectively.
from Jan Hatzius