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Goldman On The Philly Fed Miss, Which Comes At +1 vs. Exp Of +2

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Mid-Atlantic Factory Activity Shows Little Change: Philly Fed factory survey improves slightly in October; both it and Conf Board's leading indicators index in line with expectations.

KEY NUMBERS:
Philadelphia Fed index +1.0 in Oct vs. GS flat, median forecast +2.0.
Leading indicators +0.3% in Sep vs GS and consensus +0.3%.

MAIN POINTS:

1. The Philadelphia Fed's monthly manufacturing survey for October improved slightly, with the headline index rising just into positive territory for the first time in three months. The key new orders and inventories indexes both showed modest improvement -- new orders were up from -8.1 to -5.0, while the inventories index declined to -18.6 from -16.7 (with lower values 'better' for this index). The shipment index improved from -7.1 to +1.4.

2. The survey suggested margin pressure, with the prices paid index rising to 31.5 while the prices received index remained well in negative territory (-9.0). The gap of over 40 points is near the-all time extreme for this survey, although prices paid index in particular can move a lot from month to month.

3. The Conference Board's index of leading indicators rose 0.3%, as expected. The biggest positive contributors were rate spreads, lower jobless claims, and growth in the money supply respectively.

from Jan Hatzius

 

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Thu, 10/21/2010 - 10:32 | 666663 FOC 1183
FOC 1183's picture

great.  rate spread is meaningless when short rate is zero and jobless claims are soon to be revised upward which means lei will be revised downward which means pretty much all of this is completely irrelevant

Thu, 10/21/2010 - 10:56 | 666734 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Theyre just playing hide the sausage for a couple more weeks until they spring the sudden and surprising discovery things are actually quite a lot worse than our best anal-cysts had deciphered, and lay a collapsed market in the laps of the new republiclowns.
Im actually enjoying watching this total collapse of america while the moron public sits there with eyes dumber than a farm rabbits. Hillarious.

Thu, 10/21/2010 - 10:32 | 666664 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Manufacturing of what? Bullshit data report manufacturing is at all time record highs.

Thu, 10/21/2010 - 11:41 | 666868 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Mini Flash crashes again in JPM and WFC near the open this morning?.... The rigors of rigorous market rigging apear to be taking a toll on the perpetrators of the preposterous

Thu, 10/21/2010 - 10:33 | 666668 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Investors are rejoicing by buying Home Depot

Thu, 10/21/2010 - 10:34 | 666670 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Yes, "investors."

Thu, 10/21/2010 - 10:53 | 666723 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Investors'....OH right, Bernanke.

Thu, 10/21/2010 - 11:35 | 666850 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

Boy oh Boy...I don't know why, but all I see here are great names for race horses:

Philly Fed Miss

Which Comes

Little Change

Leading Indicator

Head Line

Positive Territory

Prices Paid

All Time Extreme

Can Move A Lot

In The Money

Thu, 10/21/2010 - 11:06 | 666767 the rookie cynic
the rookie cynic's picture

Guess people are buying a lot of 2 x 4s to board up the windows on all the empty houses in Baltimore. Either that or housing is really primed for a take off this quarter. (Not.)

Thu, 10/21/2010 - 11:01 | 666746 Confused Indian
Confused Indian's picture

Is there a way through which President can "Veto" the election results?

 

I think this is what is coming next...

Thu, 10/21/2010 - 11:06 | 666764 spartan117
spartan117's picture

77 on the USDX is being defended tooth and nail!

Thu, 10/21/2010 - 11:13 | 666786 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

As someone on CNBC said this morning, we are all just currency traders.

Thu, 10/21/2010 - 11:13 | 666787 system failure
system failure's picture

More free money for the wall street elite, more free money for the 40 plus million on food stamps, more free money for the 9.6% unemployed, and send the bill to the few left working. That makes a lot of sense and allows conductive reasoning for the markets to be surging, right on Wayne, party on Garth.

Thu, 10/21/2010 - 11:21 | 666810 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

All the data came in pretty much as expected, some a bit weaker some a bit stronger. Sounds like a benign economy to me. Slowly grinding along as it has been and will continue to do so.

Thu, 10/21/2010 - 11:41 | 666869 deez nutz
deez nutz's picture

trillion dollar deficits and all we got was grinding along?  Sheesh, is that type of inflation even tracked?

Sat, 11/13/2010 - 08:08 | 724462 mark456
mark456's picture

Thanks for taking the time to discuss this, I feel strongly about it and love learning more on this topic.
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