Is Goldman Preparing To Upgrade The REIT Sector?

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Tue, 11/10/2009 - 21:12 | 126636 JohnKing
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Why stop now, the party is just getting started.

Wed, 11/11/2009 - 00:14 | 126784 Fritz
Fritz's picture

Yes - With banks now legally allowed to lie to investors and depositors about the status of non-performing CRE loans, whats not to like?


Tue, 11/10/2009 - 21:30 | 126649 Daedal
Daedal's picture

Apparently "Stronger than expected" = "Conviction Buy".


Similar logic:

Person 1: Have you ever been to Paris?

Person 2: No, I've never been to Paris.

Person 1: So you were in Paris a long time ago...?

Person 2: Well, since I'm 40 years old, I'd say that's how long I haven't been there.

Person 1: Well, relatively speaking, that's not too long ago.

Person 2: Yeah, now that I think about it, I'd say I was there rather recently.



Wed, 11/11/2009 - 09:18 | 126922 justrichard
justrichard's picture

OMG  thanks for making me laugh this morning.  

Wed, 11/11/2009 - 09:57 | 126948 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Sounds like Wall Street logic alright. Or how about, "Has the man with no vital signs stopped bleeding? Yes. Great, tell the family the good news."

Tue, 11/10/2009 - 21:27 | 126650 Cursive
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In short, with declining rents and  occupancy to persist next year, relative operating results will drive upcoming growth as well as REITs that can deliver external growth given their better balance sheet.

I hereby nominate the above sentence for oxymoronic statement of the year.  If you can't dazzle with brilliance, then baffle them with B.S.

Wed, 11/11/2009 - 00:11 | 126782 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture


Tue, 11/10/2009 - 21:30 | 126652 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

they just bailed out either DDR or General Growth time to push em up and short em for coverage on the downside

Tue, 11/10/2009 - 21:30 | 126653 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

they just bailed out either DDR or General Growth time to push em up and short em for coverage on the downside

Wed, 11/11/2009 - 09:41 | 126933 deadhead
deadhead's picture

it was DDR

Tue, 11/10/2009 - 21:32 | 126655 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

calamari souffle`, anyone ????

Tue, 11/10/2009 - 21:33 | 126656 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

God Sachs a big one. Whats happening here? Remember how they chastized John Lennon when he stated the Beatles were bigger than Jesus? Blankfein needs the same treatment.

Tue, 11/10/2009 - 21:34 | 126657 tip e. canoe
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"Over the Mountains of the Moon, down the Valley of the Shadow, ride, boldly ride…if you seek for El Dorado." - edgar allen poe

Tue, 11/10/2009 - 21:35 | 126659 alien-IQ
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I think my head is going to explode...In fact...I'm sure of it.

Tue, 11/10/2009 - 21:41 | 126664 Careless Whisper
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GoldSach is a taxpayer backstopped hedge fund.

Tue, 11/10/2009 - 21:51 | 126675 Gilgamesh
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That manages secondary REIT stock offerings.  After upgrading them, of course.

Tue, 11/10/2009 - 21:49 | 126671 deadhead
deadhead's picture

wouldn't be surprised.  the fed, treasury, fdic, obama administration know that cre is collapsing and what better way to get some capital in there than to sucker more money out of the little guy via his dumb mutual fund pm as well as those brilliant overseers of the nation's pension funds.

hey, this play has worked pretty well for a banking system that is close to an insolvent piece of shit so why not try it on cre.

we are witnessing the greatest con job on a mass scale in american history. 

instead of being honest, recognizing the debt problems we have, fixing it now and taking our medicine, we will make it much worse.


Tue, 11/10/2009 - 22:39 | 126720 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

2nd it.

"the fed, treasury, fdic, obama administration know that cre is collapsing and what better way to get some capital in there than to sucker more money out of the little guy via his dumb mutual fund pm as well as those brilliant overseers of the nation's pension funds."

Wed, 11/11/2009 - 01:17 | 126823 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

since the market is set up for a plunge, if you are the Obama administration (and related financiers), why not get short and let it crash now, then re-inflate it going into next year's mid-term elections. I don't care how much money printing happens over the next 12 months, there is no way they can keep it pumped up through 11/2010.

Wed, 11/11/2009 - 09:43 | 126935 deadhead
deadhead's picture

Bingo!  We have a winner here!

Tue, 11/10/2009 - 21:51 | 126674 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Goldman's client services portion of the firm (M&A, underwriting, trading, research) MUST be split from its principal trading/ investment activity.

Tue, 11/10/2009 - 21:52 | 126677 Careless Whisper
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Hey if GoldSach is a bank, then anyone can be a bank, even Apollo Management:


Tue, 11/10/2009 - 21:54 | 126680 D.O.D.
D.O.D.'s picture

SPY up 2 cents durring market hours, new highs in A/H.  They must have read this article, and realized, Goldman doesn't have to make sense, it has to make dollars, and that is bullish...

Tue, 11/10/2009 - 22:00 | 126684 buzzsaw99
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That's a great call because if the REITs don't perform then the fed will buy them. Or Calpers...

Wed, 11/11/2009 - 05:42 | 126870 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Buzz, count on you to be one step ahead of GS! shaz

Tue, 11/10/2009 - 22:14 | 126689 Tommy
Tommy's picture

Maybe this is like their $200 oil call of last year.  Just trying to get as many suckers on the long side while they short REITs out the back door.

Wed, 11/11/2009 - 00:17 | 126786 Handle with care
Handle with care's picture

This would be my guess.  No-one can really believe there is any upside in REITS at this level.


I ZH had a n article before at how GS Conviction BUY orders coincided with stock collapses

Tue, 11/10/2009 - 22:14 | 126690 Tommy
Tommy's picture

Maybe this is like their $200 oil call of last year.  Just trying to get as many suckers on the long side while they short REITs out the back door.

Tue, 11/10/2009 - 22:16 | 126691 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Charts are pretty ripe for a "surprise" upgrade.

Gap 'em up, baby.....

Would not be too surprised....

Tue, 11/10/2009 - 22:33 | 126707 Gilgamesh
Gilgamesh's picture

The timing of this report completely explains the stampede into REITs at the close yesterday...

Tue, 11/10/2009 - 22:19 | 126693 Fish Gone Bad
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As I said before, the Dow will take out 14,000 so that Buffett can cover his bet.

Tue, 11/10/2009 - 22:22 | 126696 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Can Goldman and the Fed reinflate the entire economy? I've finally come to the conclusion that they will continue to print and plow funds into paper assets at all costs, hell or highwater. The won't give the printing press a rest until inflation is written on the wall. This is getting a little wacko. They are really going to screw the savers to bail out the debtors at all costs.

Tue, 11/10/2009 - 22:31 | 126705 par068
par068's picture

All GS has to do is a levitation act with an equity offer of enough

to cover most of the interest payments.

Fed already said they only have to make a partial payment.

Where does it say what "partial" means anyway.

A few eagles will do.

Tue, 11/10/2009 - 22:35 | 126709 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Don't be so sure it will work. See a ZH article just 4.5 months ago on this whacky analyst and his wrong predictions and how the GS conviction list is meaningless.

Tue, 11/10/2009 - 22:36 | 126713 jedwards
jedwards's picture

Anyone else keeping track of all the layoffs in tech?  EA, Adobe, Sprint (not really tech but I"m sure it will affect Palm)... this is not the sign of a growing economy.  You would expect companies to want to ramp up or at least retain their people if they are expecting things to recover soon.

Tue, 11/10/2009 - 22:46 | 126729 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Awesome! Sign them all up! A new batch of day traders fresh off the boat.

Tue, 11/10/2009 - 22:37 | 126718 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

This article from ZH back in June debunks the credibility of this analyst and GS conviction list regarding REITS.

Tue, 11/10/2009 - 22:38 | 126719 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Don't fight the market!!! Only gona lost money.

Tue, 11/10/2009 - 22:54 | 126733 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"Little does it matter that in 4 years CRE will look darker than a black steer's tuchus on a moonless prairie night."

Is this from The Big Lebowski?


Tue, 11/10/2009 - 22:55 | 126735 Fritz
Fritz's picture

If the squid does a sector upgrade, you can bet it will be for the sole purpose to dump their REIT and CRE inventory into the market, while booking fees on a few secondaries.

It may be a last desperate act to bailout Whitehall before CRE blows sky high.




Tue, 11/10/2009 - 23:04 | 126743 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Hmmm... Didn't Goldman put out a conviction buy on RL this morning?

How did that work out?

Last Trade: 80.64
Trade Time: 4:01pm ET
Change: -1.04 (-1.27%)

Churchill said "Every dog has his day, but some days last longer than others"

We'll see.

Tue, 11/10/2009 - 23:09 | 126747 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

How long after an upgrade does Goldman short the stock? Anyone?

Wed, 11/11/2009 - 00:04 | 126779 msorense
msorense's picture

The cover of Business Week is about CRE and the caption says "DEEP TROUBLE - Why the commercial realestate crisis looks so scary".  It starts out with a story about the disasterous deal GS did with an Arizona luxury resort.  See story:

Maybe they are trying blunt the storm that's coming?  As a trader, I'm trying to prepare myself for yet another strong rally to the upside for IYR.  When the fuck will this shit end?  What will it take?  Are they waiting for some external event to take place (i.e. 9-11)?

Wed, 11/11/2009 - 00:40 | 126802 Argos
Argos's picture

Arizona Grand Resort!?!  I live in Phoenix and have never heard of the place.  I had to google it.  What an absolute crap part of town.  Nearest best neighbor, a run down Indian casino and an auto rack track.  Did I mention the major freeway it borders?  Oh, and how about the fact that it's competing against at least 200 other golf course/resorts in the immediate area.  What a crap idea.

Wed, 11/11/2009 - 00:36 | 126798 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

Do the bankstas have blood on their hands? Mother of dead soldier wants to know why there's money for banks but not equipment to save lives.


Wed, 11/11/2009 - 00:58 | 126816 jedwards
jedwards's picture

I understand everything about CRE being in the shitter... but why is SRS at its historic lows?  Even TD recommended SRS back in Jan/Feb and the news has only gotten worse for CRE, but nothing seems to be bringing it down.


Has the news about CRE been leaking so slowly that no one cares, and all the bad news is already out of the sector?  

Wed, 11/11/2009 - 10:04 | 126953 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

SRS is not meant to be held over night. Only for day trading. This ultra short ETF is the biggest rip off in the history of ETF's.

Wed, 11/11/2009 - 02:16 | 126839 Johnny G.
Johnny G.'s picture

The horror!!  These GS cocksuckers put out 99 pages of decent research in August '09 explaining the untenable equity position of Reits; and how we should long/short the debt v. equity in their "State of the Markets Best Long Short Risk Strategies for Hedgies".  Not that I wasn't already positioned that way: but at least I thought the dickhead/cocksucker (should that be two words or one?)/politically correct/pussy whipped fags weren't gonna fucking turn tricks for a God damn pfennig as some tranny shot coke rocks up their ass 'cause their nose was bleeding and they couldn't stop defacing the straw; would stand up to their end of the research.

I'm done with GS.  I'll never aspire to run for Governor of New Jersey, New York or Treasury Secretary.  May God call on them for the amazing, work they've done for society...and I hope he calls very soon. 

Now would be good.

Wed, 11/11/2009 - 02:48 | 126851 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Yeah, I distinctly remember their call that REIT equities were 30% overvalued... at valuations lower than the current ones.

Wed, 11/11/2009 - 05:48 | 126874 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

It's OK.  We may yet be saved more nonsense...

Jonathan Habermann.  That name rang a bell:

It is quite likely this character doesn't know a Buy from a hole-in-the-ground.

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