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Goldman: QE2 Launches In One Month... Or Else

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Goldman is now convinced that the November 2-3 meeting will bring at least $500 mbillion in either "big bang" or staggered QE2. And stocks have pried it in. If this fails to materialize the market will crash, as the next meeting after that is not for almost another 3 motnhs, on January 25, by which point the economy will be firmly in re-recession (now that it is uncool to say Double Dip thanks to a few overcompetent Ph.D.'s), and any monetary stimulus will be too late, which would lead the Fed to overextend and do something really stupid... Like send gold to $50,000.

From Goldman's economic team:

Dudley Speech Suggests Asset Purchases in November Even More Likely

BOTTOM LINE: New York Fed President William Dudley’s speech this morning suggests strongly that the FOMC will announce $500bn in asset purchases at the November 2-3 meeting.  We had already thought some announcement of this sort was a "strong possibility" and now see it as even more likely, though it obviously still depends on data yet to be seen.  On a longer-term horizon, he also discusses ways in which the Fed could communicate more clearly its intent to get both inflation and unemployment back to levels consistent with its “maximum employment” and “price stability” mandates.

MAIN POINTS:

1. The speech starts with a clear statement that “the current situation is wholly unsatisfactory,” having described the current situation as a tepid recovery that has failed to bring unemployment down and has led to declines in inflation that the FOMC has already labeled as inconsistent with its mandate.  Therefore, “further action is likely to be warranted unless the economic outlook evolves in away that makes me more confident that we will see better outcomes for both employment and inflation before too long.”

2. In other words, in President Dudley’s view, the onus is on the economy to improve and to do so quickly; otherwise further easing measures from the Fed are warranted.  Although he includes the usual caveat that he speaks for himself, we see this as a signal that an announcement of renewed asset purchases is likely at the November 2-3 meeting, though obviously a sharp turn in the data could push this back.  Furthermore, a passage in the speech discussing the benefits of $500bn in purchases suggests that purchases of this magnitude are likely, but it is difficult to know over what time period they would take place and the extent to which the FOMC would indicate willingness to do more.

3. The speech goes on to explore issues of a longer-term and more fundamental nature, including: (a) a suggestion that the FOMC could consider what amounts to price level targeting, in which the committee would commit to offset low-side misses on inflation with high-side ones later on, (b) an assertion that further expansion of the balance sheet should not be considered monetization when the economy is operating so far below full capacity, (c) concerns about the Fed’s ability and willingness to exit balance-sheet expansion are misplaced given the development of tools to accomplish the exit, and (d) worries about the central bank’s selling assets at a loss should be subordinated to the ultimate objectives of getting the economy back to the Fed’s policy mandates, especially since earnings are high to begin with.

 

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Fri, 10/01/2010 - 15:29 | 619031 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

There will be no Double Dip!

We will muddle-through... somehow. -- B. Bernanke, et al.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 17:33 | 619431 merehuman
merehuman's picture

Thank you very , very much Tyler Durden. What you dont get in cash i am certain you will receive in good karma as you are saving many lives by keeping this site up and exposing the truth.

Further the commentary also helps to establish the reality of the moment as no lies are allowed to grow here. Again, thank you to all of you.

What ever comes next, at a minimum many of us are less ignorant and better prepared mentally, materially and are freer for it.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 17:39 | 619446 Strider52
Strider52's picture

I have a theory on this dollar-necktie party. I think they want to make coins irrelevant - anything less than a dollar. It's costing more than 5 cents to make a nickel, etc, so they're going to eliminate sub-dollar change. The smallest denomination in the US will be a 1-dollar coin, perhaps with a smidgen of gold in it.

   I have no idea why gas is still priced in 1/1000 of a dollar. It's always .009 anyway...2.99 and 9/10ths, etc.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 19:00 | 619676 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Nah, they're going issue new paper currency, effectively lopping off xxx number of zeros from the current currency (your $1 bill becomes $0.01).

They probably won't bother changing the coins, as they're too 'expensive' to change over.

So if you've got a water bottle full of change, save it until after the 'event'! XD

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 20:10 | 619868 The Rogue Economist
The Rogue Economist's picture

Methinks that with the way that the foreclosure market us freezing up, that $500 billion may be off by close to an order of magnitude, within a period of eighteen months or so.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 15:29 | 619033 tewkatz
tewkatz's picture

I think it should read "500 billion"?

If the market were pricing 500 million QEII, I'm pretty sure we'd be cliff diving right now. :)

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 15:52 | 619111 cossack55
cossack55's picture

It needs to read "500 trillion" if we are going to get to Dow 36,000.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:32 | 619241 ElCapitanNemo
ElCapitanNemo's picture

Geither To Bernake: "What comes after a trillion?"

Bernake To Geither: "I think it is a quadrillion, but not sure."

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 15:29 | 619034 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Buy, so we can sell!  Or else.....

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 15:30 | 619036 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

WOW Q/E2 on election eve huh? Gee its perfect!

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 15:56 | 619121 wiskeyrunner
wiskeyrunner's picture

Now your thinking!

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 15:33 | 619042 Yikes
Yikes's picture

Actually, the day after elections.  More or less convenient?

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 17:23 | 619401 Geoff-UK
Geoff-UK's picture

Depends on perspective.  If Bernake wants Obama returned to office, the last thing he'd want to do is kick off a 25% daily gain in gold from the shock of a QE2 bomb.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 15:34 | 619043 rle1221
rle1221's picture

Oil $100 anytime soon?

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 15:34 | 619044 Nihilarian
Nihilarian's picture

I am in need of clarification, I thought the Fed is not politicized...

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:27 | 619228 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

Yes, because they own everyone equally. The is ESPECIALLY true with politicians.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 17:35 | 619435 merehuman
merehuman's picture

Funny as hell.

Sat, 10/02/2010 - 09:57 | 620708 Orly
Orly's picture

Very clever, MT.  Thanks for the chuckle of truth.

:D

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 18:14 | 619551 Rainman
Rainman's picture

...haha.....ain't no Catholics living in Vatican City either.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 15:34 | 619045 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

$50,000, bitches.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 15:52 | 619107 midtowng
midtowng's picture

This is starting to become a problem. I can no longer calculate in my head how much money my precious metals investments are worth. The multiples are getting too large.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 15:59 | 619137 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Lets make it a cool million. I mean, once the ball starts rolling what's the difference between $50k and $1m but a rounding error.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 15:59 | 619138 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Might I suggest scientific notation?  Though I must confess I do hope it will come to be known as economic notation.  Will force kids to be good at math when their calculators can't handle the numbers they are forced to deal with in their every day lives.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:08 | 619175 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Don't think of the dollar in terms of what is printed on it, think of it in terms of the number of BTUs it contains.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:17 | 619200 centerline
centerline's picture

+1.....  LOL.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 17:25 | 619409 Geoff-UK
Geoff-UK's picture

The number of dollars you can buy with an ounce of gold is irrelevant.

The amount of arable land you can buy with an ounce of gold is about to go sky-high--THAT is relevant.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 21:53 | 620068 The Rogue Economist
The Rogue Economist's picture

+1

Good measurement. The way that gold is disappearing into vaults, plus the way that the dollar is being degraded speaks to gold being as valuable on a per unit basis as nice emeralds are today.

(A near perfect one carat emerald = about 6-15 acres of good farmland. I could easily see one ounce of gold buying the same, if not more, in the near future.)

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 15:36 | 619049 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Hey wait, I said Dow:Gold parity at $5,000, not $50,000.  That's some volatility there little darlins....

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 15:36 | 619051 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So the magic key to recovery is $500 billion? Well why didnt the first $27 trillion do any good...and wheres the FED formula that says $500 billion is the missing key to USA economic recovery? Lets see it.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 15:44 | 619073 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Because Lloyd Blankfein has his beady little eyes set on a Caribbean island, and HIS share of the $500bn would just exactly cover it.

 

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 15:44 | 619075 Glaucus
Glaucus's picture

I think there's supposed to be an "az" after the "b".  I'd have more to say, but I gotta go buy some more shiny.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 15:39 | 619058 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I'm re-confused again though here...I thought the FOMC a couple weeks ago was for a certain $3 trillion Q/E which did not take place, which in Sept the market had already priced in as a certainty with 800 DOW points. Now the market has also priced in another $500 billion Q/E too?
So when do the wheels fly off this scam that has priced in $4 trillion worth of Bennie Bucks which havent materialized and likely never will, as it would destroy the house of cards completely?

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 15:54 | 619098 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Can someone answer the Gentlemans question? When does this end? When will QE not work anymore?

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 15:57 | 619126 Dagny Taggart
Dagny Taggart's picture

When its time for TARP II?

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:05 | 619159 Phat Stax
Phat Stax's picture

When the lowering of interest rates by a few bps more does not spur lending, and then people have an a-ha moment that The Man Behind the Curtain really is fallible and worse yet, mortal.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:27 | 619227 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Not just a mortal - but a thief. And that they have let a privately held institution create money out of thin air to purchase a lien/claim on the future productivity/labor of Americans. In order to save their friends, cronies, and lobbyists.

There will be revolution (maybe).

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 15:43 | 619068 edwardo1
edwardo1's picture

I agree with other posters. If 500 billion is what's planned, the market need not wait to crash.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 15:49 | 619096 bull-market_3.0
bull-market_3.0's picture

Conveniently November 2nd is Election Day

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 15:51 | 619105 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Today I was in a meeting discussing our 2011 plans and 2010 results.

And suddenly I understood how the actual double dip will happen.

1. All the companies cut back in staff and costs in 2009 and 2010

2. Sales got up a bit and companies did start to rehire a bit in 2010.

Because of this, the contribution margins are WAY lower then expected because costs rose these last 3 to 4 months.

3. Companies will rehire MORE

4. Contribution margins will drop so hard, earning will drop like a stone.

5. The stockmarkets gets its double dip on earnings, even in a growing economy and dropping unemployment.

Point 5 is the actual reason WHY markets will drop.

It will be the "good" news that will kill us.

Lowering employment is GOOD and dropping unemployment is very risky!

Before you can heal, it need to get worse. You can't cut corners.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 15:52 | 619109 Minion
Minion's picture

The hit / high ratio is starting to flatten out.......

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 15:53 | 619112 UnRealized Reality
UnRealized Reality's picture

Is it time to pull all equity out of the house and

add more Gold to the stash.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:32 | 619240 ATG
ATG's picture

In the past, this level of enthusiasm marked tops.

QE II a poker bluff with an empty hand.

 

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:56 | 619317 Common Man
Common Man's picture

+1319

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:49 | 619299 roymunnson
roymunnson's picture

wow you have equity in your house???

 

must be nice...

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 17:43 | 619464 merehuman
merehuman's picture

garden equity! bullish on steer manure! Bullish on toilet paper!

Bullish on   NO flush toilets. If banks can bury their shit and make a profit why cant i.   lol  have a grand weekend folks and help someone who doesnt expect it.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 15:53 | 619114 freshman
freshman's picture

"any monetary stimulus will be too late"..

doesn't matter if it's early or late, it won't stimulate the economy although it may stimulate the stock held by the Goldman.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 15:53 | 619116 Ben Graham Redux
Ben Graham Redux's picture

I think they're bluffing.  The Fed doesn't want QE2.0, but they can't maintain the bullshit about an expanding economy without a positive market.  I think they're bluffing but I also believe QE2.0 would show up if the market crashes.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:06 | 619165 Phat Stax
Phat Stax's picture

Agreed.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 17:11 | 619368 AR
AR's picture

BEN  /  You make a great point.  The FED is clearly aware that all their monetary shenanigans (QE1, TARP, FASB, and etc.) have had little real effect on any meaningful, sustained growth. It is clear to us that this entire strategy is built, and predicated upon, "buying time" and "smoke and mirror programs."  Since the injection of massive amounts of money won't work -- coupled with the fact they do not possess the resolve to actually fix what is badly broken -- then the only tool they have left is rhetorect (and more hollowed programs like QE2).  Like any good "con man," they resort to bullshit and jawboning.

Our system is terribly broken. For two decades our leaders have borrowed (stolen in many cases) from Peter to pay Paul (via massive debt and credit programs). Today, we believe, there is no fix. Until the system is allowed to purge the excesses, naturally, they are only stalling and postponing the inetivable pain and suffering (long-term).

Simply trying to artificially promote higher asset prices is no substitute for sound fiscal and financial solutions. We believe our system must crash first, then rebuild itself. The problem? America is too far gone, as is the rest of the major economies around the world who have followed us into this credit and debt abyss.  Good luck to you.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 17:12 | 619376 Common Man
Common Man's picture

They need to keep the markets up as its election time. If they proceed with QEII on 3rd Nov. the system implodes too soon. So they make markets float by bluffing. This keeps the market up till the 2nd of Nov. The bluff is exposed (conveniently) on the 3rd and the markets tank and PM's correct. This buys them time before the the final implosion and also keeps the markets up just as long as required. Next stop...25th Jan'11; PM shopping time Dec'10-Jan'11

CM

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 15:54 | 619117 Commander Cody
Commander Cody's picture

Lusting after more baubles to impress themselves with, the banksters have decided more QE is needed as bonus time approaches.  As usual, the banksters win and we getted hosed. 

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:02 | 619120 DarkMath
DarkMath's picture

 

 

"Like send gold to $50,000."

I had this perverse thought that Bernanke WANTS to crash the dollar. I don't mean a little inflation. I mean REVALUATION. What's the most contrarian thing he could do? That's it right.

I mean he throws in the towel and gets all the Central Bankers together and has a velvet dollar revaluation weekend.

QEII is just a way to drive the dollar down enough so that this Velvet Weekend won't cause too much chaos. I'm serious, I think the Fed knows the gig is up.

Russia had their Velvet Revolution. America will have her Velvet Weekend. I'm coining that term VELVELT WEEKEND. It's mine. I'm going to take out the domain name. It started here first with DarkMath. Remember that.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:16 | 619199 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

This is already developed as a contingency plan by way of the IMF that is looking increasingly likely to be implemented.  This whole thing is nothing a little reset button couldn't solve.  At least until the next reset, of course.  Note that this is also why I'm not more fully in PM's than a lot of folks here, way the hell too easy to manipulate the rate of exchange on those PM's when you actually get to the point of needing to buy shit with them.  Sure, Argentina had (temporary) issues with it, but the one thing Mr. Gonzalo Lira forgets is that Argentina is a mere granule in a gigantic fucking beach that these guys are controlling.  Yeah, he'll be quick to say "hey, you and your American imperialism hyperconfidence will be your downfall!", which of course completely misses the point that, not only is he overly proud of his Argentinian heritage and desperate to believe that his hilariously unimportant country isn't just a pawn in a game of kings, but nationality has nothing to do with it in the first place, and everything that happens is so completely fucking beyond our control that storing up gold and learning how to farm in our backyards and buying a few guns is going to "mean something" and that we're "protecting ourselves".  There is no defense you fucking dipshits.  Offense.  That's the only defense we have left.  At the end of the day, as long as we're hiding like hermits, they win.  Remember, they're humans made of flesh and bone.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:38 | 619260 ATG
ATG's picture

Chile, actually, which privatized water.

Do a little tin foil hat reading, then jail and vote out the incumbents Tuesday 2 November 2010.

http://www.infowars.com/

 

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:42 | 619270 DarkMath
DarkMath's picture

I agree regarding Gold. We won't be trading gold filings for bread. That won't happen here. I do think Gold will be revalued FAR HIGHER. So if you own Gold you'll make some money, that's all.

I think our Velvet Revolution will be well Velvet. We have too many native food resources to worry about substistence farming etc. America is a resource rich when you think about it. It's not like we'll be like Japan who has to import all their Oil. We'll just start opening the Alaskan North Slope and allow drilling off of Cape Cod. We'll be fine.

But man if you are currently a Yoga Instructor, Masseuse, Dietary Hypnotist, Unionized Municipality Worker or Dancing With The Stars judge your life is going to suck for a while.

 

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:54 | 619312 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Resources mean 0 without investment and infrastructure.  One cannot simply walk to a mountain and order it to spit out it's copper.  The policies in the US have been extremely anti resource in the past few decades, so most mines and commodity extraction sites are now abandoned.  Under good conditions it takes a while to get a resource extraction operation under way, under a stressful situation you can forget about it.

Also food, yeah food is great if you have oil.  If everything melts down and we have cheap oil then yeah the food system stays in place, if there is a disruption in oil it hits food production and distribution on every level in the US and you will see a lot of hungry people.  Oh and most farming is done on the corp level, so be prepared to pay the global market rate for food even after a meltdown of the dollar.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 17:07 | 619358 DarkMath
DarkMath's picture

"so be prepared to pay the global market rate for food"

I seriously doubt that. If there is a dollar reset then the G'ment will begin price controls etc. Nixon did the same thing in 1971. It will be temporary. But you can be damn sure all those midwestern crops won't be exiting the US until we're all fed first. This is a democracy after all and voters will literally be hungry.

As for how long it would take to start extracting resources. I wouldn't use Copper. There will be a glut of contruction materials for obvious reasons. We won't be doing much building. The big thing is Oil. How long will new wells take to drill? Look how fast BP drilled that relief well? 2 months? You'll be surprise how fast thing will start moving. We can live off our Petroleum reserves in the mean time. Plus all those Chevy Tahoes won't be on the road anymore.

In the end this will be a BOOM for domestic evironmental industries. It could be the beginning of America 2.0. I can't wait.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 17:23 | 619400 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Ah price and wage controls, they work so well.  Those big agra corps will most willing take a lose on the production to feed hungry Americans as will the few normal farmers.  Only that didn't happen in Weimar either.  Start paying people less then the cost of production and the good disappears.  You see price controls on food and I will assure you there will be no food. But it would help set up more power for the Gov, which they would love in a crisis.  And of course we still need oil to get the food moved around even after a seizure.  Good thing Bush got ride of the grain reserves.

2 months.  In 2 months of not being able to buy oil how many riots will we have?  2 months, most people will be hungry in 3 days!  If the oil grid breaks then many major cities will look like a horror movie before those 2 months are up.  Read up a little on the Battle of Leningrad.  And of course this assumes that we have the capital, investment, the gov gets off it's duff and allows it.  I would not bet my life on it willingly.

America is going down and we will not stand up for generations at best.  We have a ignorant narcissistic people with limited education that believe they are God's gift to Earth, and we will have no capital going in.  It will be hell on earth for years, assuming there just against a police state standing on us.  At best we look like Argentina after this is over.  That's actually one of my best case scenarios, because out looting class is far more skilled then theirs.

 

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 17:30 | 619422 DarkMath
DarkMath's picture

"Battle of Leningrad"

Oh my, you're going overboard. You're using your legitimate anger (which I share) to cloud your vision.

The reason I think we'll have a Velvet Revolution is that we over-consume. The markets and our current Oil consumption is based on over consumption. There is so much slack in the American Retail Chain it's beyond laughable. We can save enough gas for 10 years if 1 out of 4 Grandmothers just stop driving to Target every weekend. You're forgetting the fact there are huge latent reserves built into our system. I read a statistic that if we banned SUV's we wouldn't have to import ANY oil. And that's just SUV. What if the crashing dollar effectively banned cheap Chinese imports. Oh no, I can't by that second foam duck soap bar. Big f'ing Deal. If you take out all the fat it takes to ship that shit to every Walmart and Christmas Tree Shop in the lower 48 and we'll be drowing in Oil.

We'll be fine.

Battle of Leningrad please.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 17:56 | 619507 Shameful
Shameful's picture

You are assuming that we will willingly?  Why would that happen?  We have an epic culture problem here in the US.  I could write a book on our culture has radically changed in the past 50 years.  We are arguably the most self centered narcissistic people to ever walk the planet.  Why would people change unless they are forced?  What will force them to change, the currency collapse.  However not 1 in 100 sees it coming.  So they will live their lives on the JIT supply chain.  Any disruption to this supply chain spells doom.  I am not exaggerating on the horror I expect to see.  Take LA or NYC, now imagine no fuel or food imports for the subject 2 months.  How long before violence breaks out?  3 days? 7? How will it escalate?  Our mega cities can and will turn into death traps if there is a supply chain disruption.  Will these angry young people calm be hungry?  Will the cops not try to loot a little something for themselves, look at Katrina.  What I can see happening if nothing is done is basically having a full breakdown of the supply chain.  That happens and some places will turn into charnel houses.  How many people do you know that don't have to shop every week, or eat out several means a day.  I happen to know a few guys (who are heavily armed) that only keep leftovers and beer in the house.

And I would love to see that oil report because that sounds rather dubious to me.  Is that operating wells or the proposed dilling, and from what I have read most of that oil is really hard to get to, which is back to capital costs.  And as I'm sure you are aware it's not like the US has put much into energy infrastructure in the past 40 years.  It also assumes we get all the oil, like in teh gulf.  Corps hold them after all wand with out openly criminal gov I can see them being paid to not just grab them.  Or the better then even chance of other nations pushing for and the US accepting IMS style austerity and a privatization of state assets.  Hell even if they are grabbed by the US  look at most other Gov ran fields.  And resources are not the end all be all, Mexico has a lot of natural resources after all.

But hey I hope your right.  I hope that after we are done being totally looted and hollowed out that we can come together and sing Kumbaya in a USA full of super easy and bountiful resources, and rapidly scale back up. 

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 18:20 | 619546 DarkMath
DarkMath's picture

Katrina was a natural disaster where people couldn't leave and were living in some sort of Water World/Escape From New York nightmare. That's far different than having to curtail your trips to Wallmart.

America will go back to much lower consumption levels is all. Will not being able to buy an Entemans Marshellow cake at the White Hen Pantry cause mass chaos? You're way overblowing what will happen.

All the useless plastic, partially hydrogenated crap in our lives will disappear. It will be like the Waltons. American's will get a lot thinner and wear their clothes until they put knee patchs on. Remember knee patches? I do. I was a kid in the 70's. We didn't buy new pants we just put knee patches on them. We're going to see that stuff come back. Knee patches are not the end of the world. This should make you smile.

You remind me of the security guard from Waiting for Guffman who wants to put police snipers on the school roof before the play.

You're the guy with the gun who is not Corky St Claire:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_hLm4AsfP-4&feature=related

Corky St. Claire

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uVoL4nIMRAA

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ILM_7gq9gmU&feature=related

 

 

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 18:31 | 619610 Shameful
Shameful's picture

I'm talking about a country wide disaster.  Read up on the JIT system.  I'm intimately familiar with it.  It's pretty damn fragile.  Now read up on food reserves in an average city, and now fuel reserves.  Do those facts look like a society that is ready to weather any sort of crisis?

You seem to be leaving out the cultural aspect.  People just don't say "Huh well I guess my standard of living was fake, better get used to the new austerity".  How do you think people will respond to a radical reduction in their standard of living?  Seems like we are seeing protests in Europe and they are not even really cutting deep yet.  What of states and municipalities going bankrupt? To people losing their dollar denominated investments and retirement, and SS?  Also why  would these resource be sold at less the cost in this new world?  Even if they are nationalized they can't be sold at less then cost by a bankrupt government. 

Also what of the gov?  Now they have inflicted this on us.  Will they simply stand aside and let us fix the problem or will the meddling continue.  With the current corrupt system we both know no positive changes can be made.  So  what of them, will they simply step down...history suggest those will power are loathe to give it up.

But like I said hope I'm wrong.  Looking at the culture and the way things are progressing I'm pretty sure I'm not.  Though I have no doubt our leaders will promise us this.  This is not the Waltons though.  We are watching a radical shift in the power structure of the globe not turning back the clock of time. Now sure people will survive and many places will not be to bad.  But major cities will at best be pits of crime and at worse will see the very limits of human depravity.  Prepare for it or don't.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 19:04 | 619690 DarkMath
DarkMath's picture

"Seems like we are seeing protests in Europe and they are not even really cutting deep yet."

I agree. We'll see massive protests for a while as people vent. But I would hardly call what's happening in Greece and Spain anarchy. Anarchy is if the government clogged up the pressure relief valve of social mobility. At its heart America is healthy but over-fed. People will get by, we're pretty resilient. You're awfulizing.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:57 | 619318 rapacious rachel wants to know (not verified)
rapacious rachel wants to know's picture

you're exactly right about a global reset as scheme to kick start the world wide depression

and if you aren't holding foreign currencies (no not options dumb ass, the real deal, just like your fucking gold and silver, then you will be swept down the drain hole with your friends and family

of course, they'll figure (probably already have) a way to take away whatever you manage to preserve or gain

this whole ponzi deal is currency driven

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:00 | 619133 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Interesting trading day in commodities.

WHEAT, COTTON, CORN - all down 2-4%. GOLD, SILVER, both up. Silver by 1.4%, Gold by 0.7%.

Interesting disconnect, considering CNBC on other days have been quick to group PMs with all the other commodities...

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:00 | 619145 godfader
godfader's picture

Not a disconnect at all. The AGs led the commodities up, now they lead them down.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:05 | 619157 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

But the PMs are still going up.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:42 | 619277 ATG
ATG's picture

Bingo

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:00 | 619144 davidsmith
davidsmith's picture

ALERT!

 

U.S. has forgiven home mortgage debt.  It's been Reggiefied.  See below.  The analysis is pretty damning.  I think we can safely say that it is game over for U.S. home real estate:

http://boombustblog.com/reggie-middleton/2010/10/01/is-the-us-government-about-to-forgive-mortgage-debt-such-an-event-may-be-closer-than-you-think-attorneys-pay-attention/ and add

 

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:41 | 619266 ATG
ATG's picture

So why were big bad banks up today?

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?faz

Bull trap head fake shorting op?

The giant sucking sound of debt default deflation.

Bank and broker holidays?

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:02 | 619149 rawsienna
rawsienna's picture

80% priced in to bonds/stocks and yes gold/silver

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:03 | 619154 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

Can you say re-recession x times fast in a row?

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:05 | 619158 t0mmyBerg
t0mmyBerg's picture

Umm.  Not to be a tool or anything but you missed the meeting on Dec 14th.  So the next meeting from Nov 3 is not 3 months away but 6 weeks.  Fed meetings are basically every 6 weeks.  Here is the schedule http://federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:06 | 619164 trav7777
trav7777's picture

No choice but QE2.  Look at the 3M fiasco.  You're going to see the Fed having to buy those mortgages out because to not do so would cause cascading collapse across supersenior CDO tranches as there is no recovery value whatsoever for a putative noteholder seeing as how they don't have clear title.

It will go down as Frandie buying them, then at some future point, they will sell the good ones to political insiders for peanuts.  The nation will pay aristocrats feudal rent.  The gov't will eat the shit ones.  Probably dole out free houses or something.

What this means is the housing market has a fuckin GIANT fork in it.  Perversely, it may cause prices to go up as the ones that need to be sold temporarily cannot.  Anyone with a brain will sell into such a spike because it will end with an avalanche of new supply.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:07 | 619171 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

This talk of QE 2 being announced at the next meeting is getting old...every month before a meeting this starts being thrown around to ramp equities...then nothing happens except the usual behind the scenes activities.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:10 | 619182 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Risk assets all closed at the HOD.  SPY, Gold, Oil, Copper

Even crappy junk like Citibank romped up 4% and cleared several moving averages.

Chart-monkeys will be scanning many stocks over the weekend and will be jumping on all the potential "breakout setups"....

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:34 | 619246 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

I'm now convinced you're nothing but a troll. You pick a couple of rising stocks to post charts of, and then try to get as many junks and negative comments as you can. You stopped posting girly pictures either because you were told to, or because it was the only part of your posts that people actually liked.

I'm all for the contrarian opinion, but yours don't add any value. Just blabbering to get people mad.

Mention the reversals in NFLX, AAPL, AMZN, etc. Show some ups and downs. Give a reason for being bullish. Add some value.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:58 | 619331 rapacious rachel wants to know (not verified)
rapacious rachel wants to know's picture

with tits like that you don't have to add value

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 17:25 | 619413 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Today's action is nothing to write home about. I hope you bought some protection today... and I ain't talkin' the latex kind!

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:11 | 619183 Greater Fool
Greater Fool's picture

Can't they just send ten thousand in cash to everyone who filed a 2009 tax return?

Oh, sorry, we need an "asset purchase," so...30-year interest-free loans for everyone!

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:18 | 619201 godfader
godfader's picture

In other news the ERCI leading index grew to 122.5, further away from double dip territory. I remember seeing daily headlines about the index when it was plunging, I guess nobody is interested unless it promises a drama?

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:25 | 619222 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

The index’s annualized growth rate rose to -7.8% from -8.7% last week.

Hardly "recovery" territory.

http://pragcap.com/ecri-index-continues-to-improve

 

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 18:07 | 619529 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Actually at this point it is very much irrelevant, as the double dip/re-recession it predicted is currently unfolding before your eyes. GDP will be <0 in Q1 2011. At that point some may or may not care whether or not the ECRI is positive (which it won't be for a long time).

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:29 | 619232 Prof Quagmire
Prof Quagmire's picture

  
  Can the market stay in a state of positive excitement for four and a half more weeks, hoping that Ben will apply sufficient stimulation to maintain the happy glow?  Seems unlikely to me.  S&P under 1150 is getting tired already.  If the election goes the way that the PTB wants, and I can't guess what that is, I think there's a better than even chance that Ben stiffs the house.  Lloyd has 33 days to clean up his books.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 16:56 | 619320 ATG
ATG's picture

If the election goes the way that the PTB wants, and I can't guess what that is,

http://www.intrade.com/

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 17:04 | 619342 Zeilschip
Zeilschip's picture

2.3 trillion dollar balance sheet as per end of Q3.. http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/

Larger than the GDP's of Italy and the UK, another trillion in QE2 and the Fed's balance sheet will be larger than Germany's GDP.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 17:24 | 619406 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

“price stability” mandates.  Hmmmm.  Often wondered about that.  I'm a Naval aviator and if my altitude is "stable" at Angels 35, it means I'm at 35,000 feet and not deviating.  So wouldn't "stable prices" mean 0% and not deviating?  Or does it mean 1% and not deviating?  Or does it mean 2% and not deviating?  Or does it mean 4%, 6%, 8% etc. etc. and not deviating?

Doesn't stable mean not changing, or have I been educated in an incorrect manner?  I guess it's the latter otherwise the Fed's mandate would be "price stability at an annually increasing rate of x%".

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 17:42 | 619463 Geoff-UK
Geoff-UK's picture

Semantics.

Better to ask if they'll use Vaseline or Astroglide. 

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 19:36 | 619770 espirit
espirit's picture

Time to stop being held hostage by the banksters. Let them fail and face the consequences.

Those with Stockholm Syndrome follow the instructions for placing the barrel between the teeth...

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 20:03 | 619859 Chip
Chip's picture

Damn. I have often wondered how they would go about "making your dollars worthless" as the goldbugs say. That's how. Why aren't more people shit scared?

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 21:00 | 619961 Deflation
Deflation's picture

Can someone help me out with something I've been thinking about. I have food, water, tons of silver and guns/ammo. If the banks fail will I still be able to buy a house with the silver? Should I get a rural house now? If the banks fail in the US today or the dollar went, would itr be Mad mAx immediately? Trying to time this perfectly for a house purchase. Thanks.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 22:16 | 620129 All_Is_Well
All_Is_Well's picture

You've got to be kidding me dude..........

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 23:26 | 620254 Deflation
Deflation's picture

Kidding you about what? Is the answer apparent as to what would happen if the banks went bust, or hyperinflation occured? If so, please share..

Sat, 10/02/2010 - 01:39 | 620445 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Make good friends with whoever runs the local bank.  After the Great Implosion, that person is the one that everyone's gonna turn to to get the local Economy working again, but YOU are the one that actually supplies the capital to the local bank in the form of Gold and Silver, capiche?

Sat, 10/02/2010 - 12:35 | 620920 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

Updated GOLD monthly chart:

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!