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Goldman Raises EURUSD Target To 1.50; Sets 1.35 Stop

Tyler Durden's picture




 

At this point in the intervention cycle one would have to be a very brave person to dare to do anything in the FX market: the rules are now changing constantly as the central planners shuffle pieces to avoid giving the impression that the world's financial balance is now hanging by a central bank-woven thread. In the enivronment Goldman's Thomas Stolper has just come out with a lone EURUSD recommendation. We refuse to even analyze what this may mean with regard to Goldman's positioning, suffice to say that Goldman will have to do the opposite to what its clients are trading. However whether it is an initiating or closing trade is unknown. So while the big banks are playing hot currency potato with each other, Goldman now sees the EURUSD rising from the 1.41 range to 1.50, with a 1.35 sto: "US balance of payment pressures and the declining Eurozone fiscal risk
premium have been our main G10 themes for some time. The latest evidence
re-enforces these trends and suggest EUR/$ can appreciate further from
current levels. Other factors, like higher oil prices and monetary
policy differences between the inflation targeting ECB and dual-target
Fed  further strengthen the theme." As to whether this is also merely another attempt to by Goldman to push stocks nominally higher due to real value destruction (plunging dollar) is without question.

From Goldman Sachs:

Our Dollar bearish stance is strongly influenced by a weak US balance of payment position despite strong growth. Supporting this view, the latest TIC data, released this week, shows that the US has experienced a net equity outflow of about $2.2bn in January. This is a notable Dollar negative development, since strong equity market performance, a broader shift back into developed market stocks and consistent positive data surprises in the US during that month would have suggested a much better number. Moreover, the US trade deficit has continued to widen in January to $46.3bn and will likely further widen on the back of a delayed impact from high oil prices.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the Eurozone summit last Friday and the subsequent negotiations on Finance Minister level suggest continued steady progress towards a comprehensive solution of the European sovereign issues, although there are still important details to be decided. In particular, the conditionality put in place for bail-out situations looks binding enough for the fiscally strong countries to commit more funds. The remaining contagion risks from last year’s crisis will likely decline further as a result. With a strengthened mechanism to enforce sustainable fiscal policies in the Eurozone, the likelihood of a new fiscal crisis in the future is declining as well. Overall, a further decline in the Eurozone fiscal risk premium is likely.

These two forces, US balance of payment pressures and the declining Eurozone fiscal risk premium have been our main G10 themes for some time. The latest evidence re-enforces these trends and suggest EUR/$ can appreciate further from current levels. Other factors, like higher oil prices and monetary policy differences between the inflation targeting ECB and dual-target Fed  further strengthen the theme.

We would go long EUR/$ at current levels of about 1.4085 for an indicative target of 1.50 and a stop on a close below 1.35.

 

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Fri, 03/18/2011 - 07:42 | 1070554 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Goldman Sucks ,

 

all of u are f...bastar..ds....

 

I hope one day u dissapear....or your offices are burned and toasted in hell. = u WILL PAY FOR ALL UR UNETHICAL ACTS, take for sure. I will be one of ur biggest nightmare.

_Goldman Sachs the biggest Manipulator in the world´s ponzi scheme with JpMorgan .

 

 

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 08:42 | 1070739 Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

How is a EUR 1.50 target with a 1.35 stop-out any different than their $200 oil target while going short at $145?

They're already long the EUR, waiting to sell it to you around 1.45.

Duplicitous pond scum.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 10:59 | 1071412 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

stopped out of my EUR/USD short yesterday at 1.400/ back in today, short from 1.4112; because this market loves to reverse on spikes like todays; and I believe it's "late" in this Eur rally and important players in Euroland would like to see the Euro a little lower, rather than higher; Somebody significant is selling all the rallies; we'll have to wait and see; I've never seen a reccomendation from a big bank that you could trade on.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 12:16 | 1071789 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

This is the first call for EUR/USD longs i've heard. All others see the DXY getting stronger and EUR/USD topping out here.  Since we should have capped at 1.40 we will probably see 1.4250 before the fall to 1.30.  IMO

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 08:59 | 1070806 oh_bama
oh_bama's picture

if goldman is so smart, why it cuts 5% of its trading desk on Tuesday?

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 07:40 | 1070558 KickIce
KickIce's picture

Not hard when you are an insider on the agenda, or even better, directing it.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 07:43 | 1070566 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Guess it's time to go long El Dollar?!?!

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 07:46 | 1070569 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

as the central planners shuffle pieces to avoid giving the impression that the world's financial balance is now hanging by a central bank-woven thread.

When you own most of these planners and decision makers, it isn't so hard to make the "tough" calls.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 07:51 | 1070584 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

+1

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 07:51 | 1070582 willien1derland
willien1derland's picture

Something tells me that Goldman Sachs has been accumulating various aggregates (Sand/Gravel/Concrete) in the Pacific Rim Area in order to hike the price to a desperate Japanese government -in this way they can manipulate the aggregate flow in such a way as to maximize their Credit Default Swap position on Japan - moreover, it would not surprise me if they packages the whole affair into another sh*tty deal - instead of TimberWolf it could be called TimberNuke - in this way Goldman would not lose its 'sh*tty' deal brand -  

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 09:50 | 1071006 ShankyS
ShankyS's picture

No - they know how much concrete that it will take to bury the FUShima plant and have cornered the market.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 08:01 | 1070586 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Overall, a further decline in the Eurozone fiscal risk premium is likely...

Ah yes, a model of fiscal restraint and austerity. Seems the super CDO continues to impress along with the threats of a rate increase. At what point do people who buy these layers of debt start really looking into what it is they are holding? There's a reason why a number of institutions still won't touch these "bonds".

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 07:53 | 1070588 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Goldman Sachs needs to be removed from the American bloodstream.  Again, part of the change needed if this country is ever going to heal and move past the current Greater American Depression.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 07:54 | 1070591 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

Making money is easy. All you have to do is figure out what the central planners are going to do, and then do it before they do.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 07:59 | 1070605 Bahamas
Bahamas's picture

True! But you have to have already a lot of money to gamble.

Works even better if the money ain't yours

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 08:00 | 1070608 iota
iota's picture

If this is Noyce I need to cut my long.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 08:14 | 1070639 bingaling
bingaling's picture

Seems too easy to make a shitload of money - 1.50 to buy 1 Euro ? People are so fucked in the US if this is a good call . An 8% drop in purchasing power is going to put a lot of people over the edge .

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 08:34 | 1070696 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Screw em'. Its what they have been voting for the last 100 years. Now they are getting what they deserve.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 08:40 | 1070729 99er
Fri, 03/18/2011 - 11:03 | 1071434 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 I prefer not to have a target; actually, I believe it's of fundamental importance not to have a target; if I don't get stopped out for a loss in the first couple of days; I'll run an even money stop and leave it completely alone; let the thing develop; So what if it takes two  months; I don't care. The real money is in the big moves.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 09:00 | 1070813 falak pema
falak pema's picture

The squid has a long tradition in playing left hand knows not what right hand does...wheels within wheels...There is a second agenda...always, with a squid that squirts its deadly ink in your dumb, believing face of small punter in big shark's pool.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 09:19 | 1070877 Ferg .
Ferg .'s picture

Upward revisions have lately been the hallmark of market inflection points in EUR/USD . Back in June analysts were talking about a rate of 1.1000 or even parity . In late October and early November predictions ranged between 1.4500 right up to 1.5500 if memory serves me correctly .

I have two issues with Goldman's analysis here . They mention the growing disparity between the Fed and the ECB with regard to monetary policy . That's fair enough ,  Credit Suisse overnight index swaps are suggesting a 100% probability of a 25bp hike in April and the language used at the last meeting almost gaurantees it ,  but , Trichet  stated that this would not be the beginning of an extended tightening regime .

My next qualm is that they seem a bit optimistic when it comes to Eurozone soveirgn debt concerns . To date all attempts to prevent fiscal deterioration for the PIIGS have failed . The ESM , the EFSF , IMF/EU bailouts , ECB direct purchases and very public Japanese/Chinese pledges have all failed to alleviate worries about Portugal , Ireland , Greece and Spain et al . Basically the kitchen sink has been ripped up and tossed into the mix several times now and we're still nowhere near a satisfactory conclusion .

John Taylor suggested a top of 1.4500 and given that we've pushed convincingly above 1.4000 I'd say that's a very plausible scenario . It would take some calamity in the US or a complete and final cure of PIIGS concerns to send it all the way to 1.5000 .

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 09:24 | 1070904 vectisma
vectisma's picture

they make a call for a 6% move?

 

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 10:46 | 1071329 ExploitTheMarket
ExploitTheMarket's picture

Does Goldman produce these forecasts so that their clients can fade them? We'll see if their 2011 trade recommendations do better than 2010....

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/eur-13507-goldman-eurusd-re-stop-time

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 11:38 | 1071596 DrunkenMonkey
DrunkenMonkey's picture

Someone has given him the date of QE3 ..

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 15:03 | 1072703 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

Aaaah the dastardly browbeaten Euro, staggers out in the 12th and everyone gets knocked-the-fuck-out. Some monstrous bids coming into eur/usd last night from all directions, post intervention. What is it about comeback stories that warms my cockles so-let me count the ways.

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