Goldman Refuses To Take Profits On Tactical EURUSD Trade, Extends Target From 1.37 To 1.40

Tyler Durden's picture

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LongSoupLine's picture

GS doesn't even bother to pre-lube its clients now.

johngaltfla's picture

Man are they setting the pigs and PIIGS up for slaughter....

cossack55's picture

I love a pulled-pork sandwich.  Just can't afford it right now, what with the price of hogs.  Will they be roasting them Hawaiian style?

HUGE_Gamma's picture

After Euro Crisis VI

Euro Crisis 3D: The Final Chapter

nonclaim's picture

Setting a stop 300 pip below current price and risk all profit? GS FX desk must be desperate to fleece their clients this way...

scratch_and_sniff's picture

Starting to feel a bit jittery up here, scaling back now and if we dont break 1.3770 by friday i am out until a decent retest of 1.34

JW n FL's picture

panda bonds bitchez... i called it a while ago..

but just becuase you can see it, doesnt mean you should touch it.

when the weight shifts... shorts will be crushed, wash, rinse, repeat.

pump, give bad news, gets the shorts in place and then BOOM! stomp.

Ferg .'s picture

I've had it up to here ( raises hand above head ) with Goldman and their flip flopping FX analysis . I suppose this time rather than risk tarnishing their reputation further they thought it best to issue both bearish and bullish calls . A zero sum result is better than a wrong one .

I've been very suspicious about this euphoric ejaculation throughout the euro crosses . With regard to EUR/USD specifically I've made a few observations :

 1. The initial surge from below 1.2900 was probably one giant stop run .

 2. From the 17th onwards ( above 1.3400 ) the move up was characterized by rallies during illiquid trading periods ( central bank buying during the Asian session , Friday afternoon / later session meltups )

 3. Investors have shrugged off their euro negative sentiment as a reult of a few hawkish comments from Trichet about inflation and an EFSF bond auction which was never in a million years going to be permitted to be anything other than a success .

 

Conclusion : This rally is suspect . It owes everything to stop run , low liquidity ramp ups and some good ol' myopic mentalities .

For those trading the pair there is some heavy resistance at current levels around 1.3750 ( solid horizontal ) and a 61.8 % Fib retracement from the Novemeber high to the January low at 1.3740 .

  

 

Cdad's picture

Ferg,

Agreed.  It is time to sell her. 

Additionally, it is nice to have confirmation on just who is responsible for these constant morning gap up moves for the last six months.  Hello L. Blankfein.

 

Ferg .'s picture

Looking to sell her myself , preferably on a blast through 1.3750 up towards 1.3800 .

Those gap ups are slowly eroding my sanity .

Cdad's picture

Ferg,

Again...agree.  There should be an oh so obvious moment, a chart event, that should signal that the idiots have gone too far.

And also agreed...these engineered morning gap up zombieville crap moves...nuts!  But you cannot build a sustainable rally upon a foundation of sandcastles and hopium balloons.  It all bodes well for the skeptics.

Orly's picture

As the Euro goes, specifically EURJPY, so goes the USDJPY.  I am short both right now but, if we get some sort of triple-decker flim-flam ramp job today, I think I'll go on vacation until they run out of money to stop messing up my beautiful charts.

The ten year note should tank after the housing report and take everything else with it.

4xaddict's picture

daily DiNapoli overbought level is 1.3830 region and has confluence with the 100% extension of the latest daily ABC bottom pattern.

These look like more logical targets that the 1.3750 region because everyone on the planet sees that 61.8 fib level and the 1.3750 support/resistance area.

Quick wash and rinse of all the weak shorts into the early 1.38's and then a tank if you ask me.

Just_Another_User's picture

GS is so inconsistent it isnt even funny... the last 3 internal reports ZH has posted from GS all contradict one another...!

These guys dont know whether their coming or going... they hedge their own reports/projections.

Pretorian's picture

Since 2002 they are one of the boys moving the FX market wherever they want with other ECN members. After default of some like Lehman ,Bear etc Goldman share in deciding got bigger.

 

Ferg .'s picture

Cdad ,

Agree on both points . Blow off tops are one my favourite moves to sell into , and that's what I'm looking for here . Perhaps the FOMC will deliver as did back in August just before the euro tanked . Yeah a rally with fundamental sustainability is not something to buy into . Parabolic moves up lead to parabolic moves down !

Orly ,

You just gave me a nice jolt there , much obliged ! Sometimes slips my mind how important yields are for the USD/JPY . I'm actually long this pair for a while now ( from around 81.00 ) but I'm getting a bit nervous . If it heads below 81.00 , I'm out .

Orly's picture

Have a look at the Daily on USDJPY.  The pair has definitely turned on the worm with the daily open yesterday below the BBMA (28,2).  The downside strength here is increasing while everyone fully expects the USD to ramp.

I don't see it that way.  I see that we are going into the same trading mode that we were in after Dr. Bernanke "swapped" a half-trillion for Pounds way back in the day.  USD down, JPY up, GBP sideways, AUD up, CHF up.  Risk-on, risk-off, with the USD seen as a "risky" currency.

USDJPY and USDCHF are headed for record lows, I think.  Today could be the catalyst.  Maybe tomorrow.  All I know is it is coming pretty soon.  Maybe the wheels come off after the housing report a mere ten minutes from now.

A close on the USDJPY below 81.43 should confirm the move.

________

Addo:

Wow.  I guess the people who weren't taking out mortgages ( http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mortgage-applications-tumble-double-digits-refinance-index-hits-lowest-january-2010 ) were buying brand new homes valued at $250,000.  Amazing how that works, eh?