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Goldman Reports Q4 Revenue Days: $100MM+ Profitable Days Plunge From 36 To 15; Ratio Of $100MM+ Wins/Losses Days In 2009: 131 To 0

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Is normalization coming back to the stock market? A quick glance at the Goldman daily trading net revenues in Q4 demonstrates that the easy money for the firm may have been already made. While in Q3, Goldman reported just one days of losses in 65 total trading days, as well as 36 days of $100MM+ profits, in Q4 the distribution looks much more normal (if still massively skewed toward profitability). In Q4 the firm announced it lost between $25 and $50 million once, lost under $25 million for 7 days, but most notably made over $100 million on "just" 15 days, a 58% decline from Q3. The Q4 $100MM+ trading days represent just 11% of all 2009 $100MM+ trading days. And here is an observation for you distributions fans: in 2009, Goldman made over $100MM on 131 out of 263 trading days, or 50%. It lost over $100MM on 0 out of 263 trading days, or 0%.

Full year 2009 Goldman trading days by quarter:

 

 


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Mon, 03/01/2010 - 11:13 | Link to Comment Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

The shipping industry is getting "normalized" too. Hell, if you want to be the Captain of your very own Freighter, just go down to the dock and pick one out, and it's yours, although, you may have to pay the crews their back pay, that's right, Captains are jumping ship and running for the hills en-mass.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1f3fODb2CU

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 11:19 | Link to Comment Number 156
Number 156's picture

My heart bleeds.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 11:23 | Link to Comment M31Capital
M31Capital's picture

As long as the prop side keeps pimping up SPY's and ES's and their listed and OTC equity position traders risk capital based upon that it will never end.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 11:29 | Link to Comment Shameful
Shameful's picture

This is like a guy batting .980 with mostly home runs going down to a "mediocre" .900 with less home runs.  It's not really "normal".  There are a lot of people who would sell their souls for that kind of trading profit and not getting caught on the bad side of a trade.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 11:37 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

The problem with rigging the game is when they start losing. They will always lose as well.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 11:58 | Link to Comment Shameful
Shameful's picture

Oh I don't doubt they face a big downside, or should I saw the bag-holders face a huge downside.  It's already been proven once they are to big to fail and in the era of infinite moral hazard does anyone really think they will be on the hook for when the hammer drops on them?  So in my mind since they know they will be bailed out there is in effect no downside unless their bets are so large they drag down the entire system before they get made completely whole.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 13:19 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Ya thats just what they said when it double dipped in the 30's.

It's capitalist law. If banks don't pay interest then people assume they aren't interested in the money so capital flees. They have to grind the market higher on low volume to let it dip when people are actually coming in and buying. When people stop coming, they will have to find some way to let it dip back down. They don't have a way in my opinion. I guess the HFT works like the gold mining market. The gold in possession is huge compared to the gold mined. So you manipulate the price of mined gold with in possession gold. The stock in peoples hands is in possession gold and the stock in HFT hands is mined gold. It works backwards though. The "mined" stock sets the price of the in possession stock and it probably has fractional limitations. As soon as too much stock gets into the HFT it breaks.

So judging from the 2008 crash all it takes is 500 billion in buffer bucks to go away and it crashes. The reload of buffer bucks in 2008 still isn't credible. There's no way to reload again with anything that approaches believability. That makes all the corporations "cash equivalants" poof. Which completely obliterates their ability to get any capital at all because the banks can't use the stock holders as an usecured credit card that is wipeable at any point. So the scam has really circumvented itself. By the government becoming the sucker stockholders the corporations that create and control the government become thier own suckers.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 11:30 | Link to Comment BlackBeard
BlackBeard's picture

fuck.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 11:34 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Inquiring minds....What is their NFP # for Friday (which of course will be revised Thursday afternoon)?

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 11:38 | Link to Comment Trifecta Man
Trifecta Man's picture

They did almost as well as Bernie Madoff used to.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 11:45 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 12:30 | Link to Comment Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

...  or change it afterhand!

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 11:55 | Link to Comment Lord Blankcheck
Lord Blankcheck's picture

"I pledge allegiance to the Squid of the United States of America and to the robber barrons for which it stands,one bank above God,invisable,with no liberty or justice for all"

 

 

 

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 11:58 | Link to Comment Oso
Oso's picture

when the govt doesnt fucking TELL you what it is monetizing, it becomes a fucking little bit harder.  FUCK GS.

 

I've never said i seriously hate something or someone - but i truly hate GS, and wish nothing but ill on that firm.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 16:19 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 11:59 | Link to Comment E pluribus unum
E pluribus unum's picture

Maybe they'll have to lay off Abby Joseph Cohen....Maybe she gets Don Kohn's job at the FED?

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 12:08 | Link to Comment aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

Thank you Hank Paulson... 

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 12:17 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 12:32 | Link to Comment dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

Is it normal that both Bund futures and all index futures (CAC40, DAX, STOXX50, S&P) trend in the same direction? On "normal" days Bund and index futures trend in reversed fashion, usually they correlate negatively (Bunds up, Stocks down)... Why index futures keep rising, in spite of the not so good news of lately? Who or what is pushing up futures? And how?

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 12:40 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 12:45 | Link to Comment Fritz
Fritz's picture

I believe the bucket shops had similar statistics back in the 20's, albeit at lower absolute levels.

Whats old is new again.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 12:54 | Link to Comment Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

Translation: Not that many day traders/investors left to LOOT and PILLAGE now that many of them have ABANDONED the "markets" completely.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 13:04 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

They will stop shorting gold soon.  it is eating at their margins.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 13:45 | Link to Comment SRV - ES339
SRV - ES339's picture

+1

Shorting gold, and tanking the market periodically to grease the skids for T-Bill auction, is cutting into their profits... simply the price of doing Gods work (Ben and Timmy have a direct line ya know)!

Besides, it's good PR... could it be they're finally catching on that it's not such a great idea to "rub our noses in it" and, while not hiding it, could they at least be making an effort to make it a little less obvious?

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 13:27 | Link to Comment greased up deaf guy
greased up deaf guy's picture

disappointing quarter for sure. they should consider rehiring sergey aleynikov.

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 13:37 | Link to Comment jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

And remember, GS is broke 300x over.  So all these big profits that outrages and amazes people.  Wouldn't even fill 1/100th of 1 percent of their derivatives WHEN it collapses.

GS is broke, but they're making money hand over fist.  Sounds crazy, until you realize this isn't a theory, but an everyday fact.

 

It's the system stupid

It's the derivatives stupid

It's the statistical models stupid

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:01 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:06 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:33 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 14:56 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 03/01/2010 - 15:49 | Link to Comment juno9604
juno9604's picture

GS playing possum this quarter w/ FED, SEC, others looking into their shennanigans.  GS just issued $2bln 10yrs at

190bps over treasuries...building war chest

Mon, 03/01/2010 - 22:32 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 04/16/2010 - 10:33 | Link to Comment Tom123456
Tom123456's picture

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