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Goldman On Retail Sales: "Disappointing"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Somehow, with Amazon trading at all time highs, June retail sales, once again, came in "disappointing"... not our word. Goldman's. And that's even with nobody paying their i) mortgage, ii) property/school taxes, iii) lawn care, iv) federal income tax, v) food (thank you record food stamp usage), and, of course, vi) healthcare. Another battle lost by the permabulls (ot is that permacow in Joseph Cohen's case?). But no, the GDP hockeystick is coming. Just you wait! No really, you will have to wait...a long, long time.

MAIN POINTS:

1. Taken as a whole, the June retail sales report was somewhat disappointing, despite a headline gain that was better than expected. Overall sales were up 0.1% vs expectations of a decline; the main surprise here was that the Census recorded an increase in vehicle sales (+0.8%) despite a lower monthly vehicle SAAR; this could have occurred because the mix of sales to consumers and sales to businesses changed. But our retail "control" measure-sales excluding vehicles, gasoline, and building materials, which we use for tracking the likely pace of consumer spending within the quarter-was up a mere 0.1% on the month, well shy of our expectations. Coupled with modest downward revisions to prior data, this suggests further downside risk to our 2% real GDP growth estimate for Q2.

2. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 405k in the week ending July 9. We had anticipated that the government shutdown in Minnesota would add significantly to weekly claims, and that this could have been partly offset by seasonal distortions related to auto plant retooling. It is difficult to say whether the effect of the Minnesota shutdown was smaller, the effect of auto sector seasonality was larger, or the underlying trend in claims improved. On net the report should probably be interpreted as a modest positive, but we will need to see 1-2 more weeks of data before we can say that the trend has improved.

3. Finally, headline producer prices fell by 0.4% in June, two tenths more than expected. The decline was driven by lower energy prices (-2.8%) while food prices rose modestly (+0.6%). Core finished producer prices rose a bit more than expected, up 0.3% on the month. At the intermediate stage of processing, the core index rose 0.3%, down from a 0.9% increase in May.

 

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Thu, 07/14/2011 - 11:28 | 1456160 redarrow
redarrow's picture

Disappointing retail sales? Why does that not surprise me... the fun will be tonight when GOOG reports. Let see...

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 12:20 | 1456372 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

It's all good.

The government isn't massively manipulating every statistic under the sun, and inflation isn't artificially boosting sales figures in a very devious manner (yes, Bernank knows that higher prices on fewer goods purchased can allow the massive consumer leveraging taking place to be hidden from sight).

 

And hey, look -

Only 1.7 million homes have gone into foreclosure in JUST the first 6 months of 2011, but there would have been 2.7 million homes going into foreclosure in just these 6 months if it weren't for 'paperwork problems,' so, just like the debt, these foreclosures will keep being kicked like an oxidized can down the street, until there are 15 million (or more) homes in foreclosure, piled up, like steaming heaps of cow dung.

What great progress!

 

Foreclosure Glut Pushes Filings Into 2012
Thu, 07/14/2011 - 11:29 | 1456170 Deepskyy
Deepskyy's picture

Bah, who cares about retail stores actually selling things.  The market is up!  Well... kinda up.   

<:p

 

 

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 11:33 | 1456184 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Not disappointing to bubble stocks! Wheeeeee look at em go! :D

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 11:34 | 1456185 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

...or that permacow in Joseph Cohen's case

 

PermaHeifer.   Ain't never been laid.  Clearly.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 11:33 | 1456191 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

Perma Cow! Ouch! That was nasty. But I hate that guy too. I love when they pull her out of her cave to say the S&P is going to (Pick a high number).

The lady made a bullish call in the 90's (When everyone was bullish and for a short period had actually growth and production) and all of a sudden she is some Sage. Please, the sooner Cohen takes a permanent dirt nap the better..and please take Warren with you!

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 11:33 | 1456192 Whatta
Whatta's picture

Does anyone have any updates on early withdrawal rates from retirement accounts? Maybe we have slowed down the record pace of attacking our futures (on a personal  level) to live in the present...with "live" meaning to purchase a can of Friskies Bits for our dinner.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 11:36 | 1456210 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Great question.  I doubt it has slowed.  My bet is that it has quickened as the tide is turning and folks are either panicked about converting to real assets or just need the dough.  But that is anecdotal.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 11:35 | 1456202 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

And yet, prices rise.

So the real battle the banksters must be waging is to keep money velocity in check.  Otherwise, the Bernank is going to be eating his words about inflation being transitory.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 11:37 | 1456214 Fifth
Fifth's picture

If the Minnesota government is shut down, who would be processing unemployment claims?

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 11:51 | 1456272 Kromme Vinger
Kromme Vinger's picture

Half the unemployed are selling stuff on Amazon as "merchants". Amazon takes a 20% cut and never has to touch anything.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 12:11 | 1456364 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Another battle lost by the permabulls (ot is that permacow in Joseph Cohen's case?)

Ouch.  What, is Marla back at the keyboard now?

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 12:31 | 1456454 monopoly
monopoly's picture

I hope Lloyd is still getting his suits from Brooks Brothers at 1 Liberty Plaza. Maybe he needs a donation. Poor useless person.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 12:37 | 1456476 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Brooks Brothers?

To aspire as a Squidlet, one must have the finest tailors, complete with heavy Italian accents, come to their personal residences, have measurements taken, and have a hand tailored suit using the finest materials and the best 'cut' prepared.

That runs about $8k for the money shifters in Manhattan.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 12:38 | 1456487 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Truthin, right on., I forgot who I was dealing with. Of course, how stupid of me. :))

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 12:46 | 1456518 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Not a problem.

The next time you happen upon Lloyd, be sure to compliment him on his finely honed suit...

...a comment like "I like the cut of your jib, good sir," or similar will suffice.

The Blankfeins of the world eat that shit up.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 12:34 | 1456470 foxmuldar
foxmuldar's picture

First lets get to the higher then expected auto sales. How many of those were government purchase of those useless Chevyvolts? We know the government has been pumping up the GM numbers by buying only GM vehicles.

As for the jobs number, thats another joke. Monday was a holiday. Most file for unemployment on Mondays so bet your bottom dollar this weeks number will be revised higher. Everytime a Holiday comes on a Monday which is most of the time, the number is always revised higher the following week. Facts.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 12:41 | 1456503 foxmuldar
foxmuldar's picture

Thanks to Bernanke and a weak monthly jobs report, my IWM Iron Condor trade will be another winner for me. Last week it was looking like It would be a loser as it was climbing faster then the tour de france pelaton today. Any one else watching the race? Beautiful view on my Sharp LED screen.

Thu, 07/14/2011 - 15:17 | 1457188 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Retail "snails" sink stocks!

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