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Goldman Revises Gold Forecast, Now Constructive, As It Sells Gold To Clients
A month ago we posted an article which we titled: "Goldman Again Buying Gold, Selling Copper As It Lowers Gold Price Forecast, Boosts Copper" in which we speculated, as the title suggests, that since Goldman had turned bearish on gold, we were expecting gold price to jump as Goldman was once again implicitly buying the precious metal from its clients. Sure enough, a month later and $100 dollars higher, Goldman has once again performed its non-fiduciary duty and released another commodities update in which the firm is now quite constructive on gold. And all it took was a month (and some called us cynical). That said, as Goldman is now selling gold, it may be time to reevaluate gold positions, at least from a technical trade perspective.
In our original post we wrote:
Goldman is once again starting to accumulate Gold. Three months ago Goldman boosted its forecast price target to $1265/toz in 2010 and $1425/toz in 2011,
during which period the firms was likely shorting gold to clients who
were buying in expectation of a price hike. Today Goldman has revised
its call - no surprise: gold is now expected to drop to $1165 in 2010
and $1350 in 2011. Then again, according to former Goldmanite and
current gold "expert" Jeff Christian big banks would never do something
as risky and foolish as having a naked short position. So please ignore
anything we might have said earlier about GS shorting gold unhedged.
Bottom line, clients are now expected to sell their gold to Goldman.
Which means Goldman is buying. You do the math.
Previously, Goldman had written:
Broadening
economic recovery raising US real rates, leading us to lower our gold
forecast to $1165/toz in 2010 and $1350/toz in 2011 While we continue
to expect gold prices to move higher this year, higher US real rates
off the back of stronger economic activity will likely reduce some of
that upside. Consequently, we are lowering our 2010 gold price forecast to $1165/toz.
However, our US growth, inflation and rate policy outlooks suggest real
interest rates will likely fall again later in the year. Consequently,
we expect gold prices to rise to $1155/toz, $1220/toz, and $1320/toz on
a 3, 6, and 12 month horizon, and average $1350/toz in 2011.
A month later, on May 10, Goldman comes out with the following reevaluation of gold.
The recent market turmoil helped propel gold prices back above $1200/toz in recent days as investors increasingly looked for safe havens amidst heightened concerns over Greece and the potential for financial contagion to other European countries. The sharp rise in the level of concern over Europe can be seen in the credit default swap (CDS) markets where cost to insure against sovereign default by Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Italy spiked to the highest levels on record (see Exhibit 21). Interestingly, USD-denominated gold prices rallied sharply higher off of these concerns despite the fact that these concerns also helped push the euro to its lowest levels in more than a year (see Exhibit 22).
The behavior of gold prices in the recent period has highlighted that while gold prices and currency moves are often correlated, USD-denominated gold prices are actually driven by more fundamental factors: US real interest rates and physical gold flows. More specifically, the yield on the 10-year US TIPS has declined significantly as the European sovereign debt issues have led investors to seek shelter in US Treasuries and have raised questions regarding the sustainability of the economic recovery (see Exhibit 23). With the yield on 10- year US TIPS moving lower, we see support for gold prices moving more quickly toward our 6-month target $1240/toz. Further, the heightened concerns over European sovereign debt are proving to be an effective catalyst to drive gold-ETF holding to new highs (see Exhibit 24).
While the recent market turmoil has been supportive to gold prices, the concerns over the sustainability of the economic recovery it has generated has exerted downward pressure on platinum prices, which are down almost 1% from their recent highs but remain above their end-of-March levels. This conforms to our view that platinum prices share in gold’s safe haven status while also being leveraged to the economic recovery due to their use in the automotive sector in catalytic converters. Interestingly, the platinum-to-gold price ratio has shown a strong correlation to other growth-sensitive assets in the recent period, with the ratio declining during the market-wide sell-off in risky assets.
Etc. As usual Goldman 1, clients 0. Although the fact that Goldman is now once again vocal in its support of gold gives us pause. As the report appeared on May 10, as gold was on the verge of $1,250, we may well be in for a gold retracement, at least from a purely technical standpoint, as Goldman "distributes" its newfound gold holdings.
Here are the full commodity projections from before (early April):
And May 10:
Full Goldman commodity report.
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Could Goldman be right this time?
Goldman is always right. If they happen to be wrong, it's a temporary situation until they either manipulate the market or their customers until they're right. Or they re-write history.
Some day I shall be bouncing my grandchildren on my knee as I tell them about the flash crashes of the 10's. I'm sure I won't be believed.
Ah Grandpa, you're telling stories again. Ma, PaPa is fibbing.
Even more dependable than GS as a contrarian indicator in metal matters, Mr. Contrarian Indicator in all matters market himself, Jim Cramer, came out today on gold:
Jim Cramer: Six Reasons to Buy Gold Right Nowhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/37192473
Jim, the famous market timer he is, made the call right after the top. I am afraid that a sudden drop in gold is now virtually guaranteed.
A broken watch is still correct twice a day.
Even twice a day is pushing it with Cramerclown, though.
Your call (s) that gold was going to decline were prescient.
imo, its time for goldman to be wrong about something
Where was Goldman when you couldn't give silver away at $7 and no one I talked to would touch gold at $ 325 ? Fast forward and now, 9 years into the PM bull market and with bullish sentiment at 96%, Goldman likes the PM sector, brilliant.
No. Why?
the war with iran thats about to start ?????
Let's hope it's wrong about not being held accountable.
Oh and the other side of the trade...Last Time was Buy Copper.
It took a major dribbing, whilst Gold.....
Oh, why bother?
Cynicism? WTF. Evidence!
TD, there is a very fine line between realism and cynicism.
This , however, is the former not the latter.
Basically, just do the opposite of what they say. It's been that way for quite a while.
My first investment (back in 1998/99) was on the back of those motherfxxxers upgrading e-trade, with a target price of $50 or so. Bought at $31. The following day, they plunged to $25, never to recover. Taught me a lesson about putting faith in what is essentially misleading marketing material.
Yeah, when Goldman sells something, don't take it.
I hold lots of gold. But, it is for insurance vs. .gov and disorder.
But, it sure can go down. It's OK.
i also don't invest in gold. i do accumulate it though. whenever i get lucky with a trade i get a little physical gold or silver.
Goldman is always right - they make sure of it, by manipulating their institutional clients!
It's like visiting a dominatrix.
Whoa!
That's like saying its all right for her to stick fingers up my.....
Oh why bother?
Oh joy, another gold thread! Wonder when the Haters are going to swarm in.
BravoYipJay, before you get started, please let us know if it is OK to have 5% - 10% in gold. We are holders not speculators (most of us I guess).
Disclosure: gold is about 6% of my assets.
its coming now sears .. will take your gold in exchange for a purchase .. but you cant eat a washer lol
Good, now that GS is "IN", we know we can count on a Crash, and Buy like a bitch...HOLD.
Screw them, over the past 2yrs, a LOT of regular Joe's have finally gotten the message, and it's not really hard, when you see folks daily, robbing the same banks, w/out masks,.......to figure out What Up!.
GS & Gv't, sittin in a tree....................P i s s i n g on you N me.
Soon it'll be time for some DZZ and after we hit a depressionary bottom that forces central bankers to monetize 24/7 then it will be time for some DGP and leaps on the GLD and then try to get out with your skin alive and head for the hills, make sure you have a deep well, some plantable land, farm animals, be off the electric grid with solar panel converted household and Tesla electric car. Also make sure you start training on the crossbow while hunkerink down waiting for most governments to be overrun Greek then Kyrgyzstan style.
6m-1y short term forcast: continuation of depression.
1-3y Weimar style hyperinflation.
5-10y Cannibalism on Wall and Broad Street and Volcano devestaded Western Europe with endgame being discovery and lynching of elites' South American Hideouts.
fUNy1.blogspot.com
Damn, so if I hide out in South America I'll look like one of them and end up as strange fruit? So where am I supposed to hide?
AS a backup to the Tesla, try to find a running pre-computerized era beater that can be fixed with a few simple tools, duct tape, and baling wire. Which reminds me - stock lots of duct tape.
It is amazing that all here believe they are lying all the time.
How can any service based company continue like this?
They have been completely discredited, and shown to be lying to and cheating those they pretend to serve. Are their clients mad, bad, blind or just plain stupid?
mac,
When your REALLY TBTF, meaning you call who goes down, or stays up....they do not need regular clients.
GS is a prop trading outfit, also known as a hedge fund. Clients are there simply to provide order flow so they can front run it when they feel like they can get away with it. They aren't necessary, especially when your Uncle Sam is at the table with an infinite supply of chips.
The hyperinflation was a fun time for some. The little people enjoy being busy and getting their paper. They like the big numbers.
Oooo! Numbers! A full bank account! Paid rent! Junior has a job!
Gotta get that papah, yo!
Relax and enjoy it... hire an Indian PhD to write you a business plan, go to the SBA, get 20k, shift it out of state, BK, repeat, and chillax...
The over-arching Gold story is way bigger than Goldman.
If Goldman says buy it, you short the shit out of it. 1045-1085 is support and it will hold. A bounce off over the summer, consolidation in August-October between $1150-$1225 then move way, way up after that.
Sorry Goldbugs but if Goldman is says one thing publicly, I do the opposite.
Keep in mind that this is just one tiny part in Goldman.
They may literally just be making this call to provide an advantage to one of their buddies in another country. It's by no means a monolithic institution. And the size guarantees that there are more rivalries than there would be otherwise.
Good point. Many seem to talk about GS as if it were one mind. Sure, they don't have the large staff like JPM or BoA, but I've never worked in even a small office where everyone agrees. Did hear how Gensler spoke to Christian at the CFTC meeting, two ex-Goldmanites, when Christian tried to pull the old buddy-buddy-we're-both-from-Goldman thing? Gensler said something along the lines of yeah we both worked at the same place but our philosophies are obviously very different. Ouch.
We also know that sometimes the company is betting counter to its staff, don't we? Unless GS knew there would be a bailout (?), the company stood to lose big on the very same bets that made Paulson & Co and some of the GS staff very rich.
if didn't think that goldman sachs was anything but a putrid pile of cow feces sitting in a hot august iowa hay field i would read the article....
i don't give a rat's ass what gs thinks of gold. i hope they are having fun manipulating it for the treasury, fed, and cia....
Is it really bullish of them if they think gold will stay about where it is for the next 6 months? 2% increase in 6 months would be a joke for a bullish stock pick.
good point, their target was 1240, which gold has hit, passed and then pulled back from. So they can always say they werent technically lying, just leaving their loyal clients to make bad assumptions about timing.
I think gold is likely to pull back, 1150-1200, maybe a bit lower, then consolidate and push back up. Unless the euro collapses or something crazy, then it will continue pushing up.
shorted GDX a bit today......we'll see if it works out. I imagine things will calm down a bit in Euroland as our $ starts flooding the banking system.....and then heads right back to the treaserve from the UK.
Goldman Sachs + Gold in one story. This thread is going viral. To the Moon, Alice.
reminiscent of their oil call in 2008
Is this worth the pixels it's written on?
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/gold-trading-gold-gold-rally-precious/5/17/2010/id/28332That report may be correct about the etf's etc..But not the metal you hold in your hands..That value is unknown at the moment.And will remain unknown until the complete decoupling finishes and the free market determines a true price.Prices around me are right now trading 4 dollars higher than spot for silver. EAGLES ARE SELLING FOR $25 EACH.And he is out again until friday..
I do not recall having seen a bigger net short positions by commercials since the beginning of the dead puss' bounce.
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm
Just got my confirmation that better entries will present themselves soon.
Thanks TD
These trades are pretty much Lloyd’s special baby as he came from the gold desk in London. This is how he attempts to escape all the problems at the firm – returning to his ‘Roots’ and jerking the gold market around. [wow that was a hard captcha ? -25 -(-45) and I GOT IT RIGHT!!!!!
Cramer was touting gold tonight. Watch out.
If there ever was a Bad Omen... Cramer + Goldman being positive about anything ='s BAD! OMEN!
Additionally, the mining stocks often lead the metals higher or lower. When you look at gold and the HUI, there is a subtle divergence. Some of the stocks that I trade in the gold and silver arenas have had major negative divergences to the price of the metal. Makes me a bit leery at this point.
Additionally, the mining stocks often do whatever the hell they want.
There fixed it for ya.
This is like Spy v Spy. If Goldman and Cramer says to buy gold, they know the reaction from people who see right through them would be to sell, and maybe that is what they want.
Doesn't really matter, I am not dumb enough to trade it.
If this mind fucks you. Then you aren't ready.
I saw a few religious leaders telling people to buy gold. Watch carefully. You'll see where it goes very shortly.
Hephasteus, you seem to be alluding to some sort of near-term phenomenon that (if I'm reading properly) will prove exceptionally bullish for gold. I must admit, after the recent advance - nothing too spectacular, but nothing to write off - in the PoG, what do you view as further upside catalysts? I don't ask about the downside drivers, as they're all too obvious: a massive "come to Jesus" moment on behalf of everyone in government or a major bullion sale of impossible proportions. The further upside drivers, however, seem to be missing, specifically when one views the fact that the dollar and Au have seen a period of positive correlation. Were the DXY to turn, wouldn't the PoG do so as well based upon the algo's trading in line with recent dynamics? To assume that a falling DXY will bolster Au after a falling EUR did so certainly seems reasonable from a long term perspective, but it doesn't appear particularly realistic given the fact that JPM & crew will likely use the recently-emerged DXY/Au correlation as an opportunity to drive the PoG through near-term support.
Your comments are, as always, much appreciated.
-GB
Well think about the gold market right now. It's really hurting. You got people who "used" to "order" other people around through influence throwing them at an on the edge gold market.
Here's your two outcomes. The goldman people go out buy up little bit of gold and ETF the hell out of it. The relgious people go out TRY to buy gold and can't so they end up frustrated or in the paper gold trash. The crash comes and it's a will breaker. They were told what to do but it was "too late". They don't do it and it crashes and it's "their fault".
Just had a meeting with these people and I gotta say it was really funny in that it was choreographed by an insane child. LOL
As I said before everyone is testing the water. This pullback will be much much more severe than the pre and post first crash pullback. We are going to do great depression 2 all over again with 2nd crash but the problem is that everything is consolidated enough that there won't be enough liquidation to keep the godzillas alive. The big banks won't have enough "relatively" solvent banks that get closed by the rules to feed them. So there is going to be much much more gold counterfeiting. If it got to 500 gram bars early this year it will be going on in 10 Troy ounce (311) gram bars by the end of the year. So the big problem is that with all the counterfeiting and paper overed ETF's it really won't be more than extend the scam. Prices will stay lower than they should be due to all the nervousness.
Gold should be sitting at 1320 at close today but it's NOT. Platinum is rising so it's pinch hitting and rhodium is being pimped as a pinch hitter. This happened in 2008 as well on the 2nd upswing on gold.
http://www.monex.com/images/charts/GBX_LINE_1825DAY.PNG
Look at the 200 day moving average chart line. Anytime the curve steepens past a certain point it gets crazy. During those crazy times you had a lot of action on platinum and palladium. This time I think it's going to end up with both those metals as deeply in backwardation as gold is and silver is going to get creamed and massively break out. There probably is going to be some sort of wack a mole strategy going on. Dump gold ponzi platinum and paladium, dump those 2 then ponzi silver, dump silver and ponzi gold this will likely get them enough time to ETF and counterfeit up a few more tons of gold. But with them throwing several million public servants in the streets this month and next what THEY do will have large impacts as they are "fresh" meat who haven't sold their "valuables" off to the meat grinder.
There's no "major" bullion sales to hammer the price down. The ETF selloffs aren't working. IMF isn't announcing sales. It's a strategy shift. They are probably consigned to realizing that they are going to get investigated so they will set up the "investigation" to correlate with one metal at a time. That way they can manipulate the metals not under the investigation as they set the investigated metal loose.
And the saturday before last i said I was running out buying a bit more silver and I didn't. But I won't make that mistake today. And now I understand why bi and tri metal currency backing was soon discovered to be a mistake. People need to go back to silverware for it's anti bacterial properties and leave the rest for industrial usage and stick to gold as the ONLY store of value which works fine as long as you don't couple it with fractional reserve compound interest.
Oooh! And that Simon Hobbs guy is filling in for Kudlow. He is absolutely rabid in his hate for gold. His eyes get as big as saucers, his nostrils flare, and he gets spittle on his tie when he merely says the word. Where did they get this maroon?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_Kh7nLplWo
They are coming out of the woodwork lately... the crowd that has completly missed this 9 year PM bull market is frothing. They look back at the charts and bang their heads on the table in total frustration... it's really funny to listen to the mental gymnastics. The fact is there has been plenty of great (easy) opportunities to get into the PM sector, the problem of course is to recognize the opportunity, step in and put actual money at risk...
Hobbs says that it's a mistake for financial advisers to put clients into precious metals. He could be right there since the advisers will direct them to ETFs. What Hobbs doesn't see is that if the clients don't go into PMs they will go into something! ... and lose their money. Who cares one way or the other? If an investor is not willing to do their own DD then a loss is in order.
They DESERVE to lose? DD on what? It's all lies anyway...except when it's the truth. We're all going to need to be better poker players to make a buck in this market.
Hi! I apologize for not being more specific and clear. The discussion was about precious metals only, not other places to put money (note I did not use "invest"). BTW: I did not use the word "deserve", I simply said a loss was in order. To say that a loss is "deserved" is a moral verdict which I'm not inclined to do. A loss being in order does not imply total devastation of assets. DD in this case would be staying on top of the metals movements and influences. That's not so hard considering the plethora of resources available on the internet(s) and not-so-shy commentary from professionals, both actual and professed. You got it right about the poker player mentality. It really irks me to hear on TV the term "play" (in the gambling sense) to refer to the financial markets. Keep an ear open and you'll be surprised how often it is used. Happy investing!
Nope, Plus check out wnd.com there front page today
APMEX is running low on 1 oz gold coins, except the American Eagle. They're out of 2010 Maple Leafs, and low of Philharmonics. A decent supply of Buffaloes and American Eagles.
his nostrils flare, and he gets spittle on his tie when he merely says the word. Where did they get this maroon?
he is the rule not the exception.. pick any 100 folks 1 will understand gold
the rest raised on mommas milk and Keynesian's goo
Heh, thanks for the chuckle, Dumpster. I can see disagreement, but not off-the-cliff fear! This guy Hobbs should perhaps seek counseling on the matter -- as you suggest it could be a deep-seated problem caused by premature weaning.
Obviously exacerbated by the co-hostess:
Michelle Caruso Cabrera
it seems most of the anti-gold crowd need professional counseling. It's not enough that they missed it - they absolutely seethe with anger that people are investing in it. I don't like REITs and think anybody investing in them is insane, but I don't go on to REIT message boards and write posts after posts of insults and hostility. I just don't invest in them. The gold haters really should be studied by psychiatrists or something.
Maybe a check-up by a proctologist would be more effective?
That's where a psychologist is going to find their head.
It has been posted at ZH before but this is bound to become a classic:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6d3Oy6YMCI
Excellent point, Brian, which I have brought up numerous times here and elsewhere myself. It is a very curious situation indeed.
Like you, I do not troll any online forums that are dedicated to subjects that I find inimical to my best interests, or even that I despise --- the thought had literally never entered my head. So what possibly motivates those gold-hating freaks to swarm this site whenever the subject comes up? I can think of only two possibilities:
1) They consciously or subconsciously realize that gold ownership strikes at the very heart of the political-financial establishment upon which their livelihood, status, and/or emotional security relies, and they therefore feel threatened in a very fundamental sense whenever the monetary control of that establishment is attacked via the advocacy of taking one's financial destiny into one's own hands by holding gold;
2) They are active agents of an organized campaign to subvert, interfere, disrupt, and discredit the growing number of internet forums (such as this one) which directly attack, expose and undermine the crimes, corruption and abuses of power by our political and financial elites, who are coming to realize that the growth and sharing of pro-freedom, anti-establishment sentiments and information on the internet potentially poses an existential threat to their longstanding control and power.
I believe that most of the many vociferous anti-gold trolls whom I have seen, here and elsewhere, are not posting as scattered, disturbed individuals, but as part of an internet-wide effort to attempt to discredit gold and its advocates, and more generally, all those who are raising their voices against the propaganda and lies that form the very foundation of power of the controlling elites.
Akak, your comments smack of conspiracy. Was that your intent?
If so, who or what agency/company/whatever do you think could be capable of carrying out such an endeavor?
I've stated before that some of the posts from the same "person" do not show consistency in spelling, grammar, and temperament.
Several other members of another online forum in which I take part have noted, and are discussing, this very same thing at this very moment. We have been utterly bedeviled and mercilessly trolled by one particularly energetic, emotionless, and HIGHLY determined individual (or so it would seem at first glance), whose obvious goal is to disrupt and destroy that forum. And yet, the sheer numbers of hours that this "person" spends in his trolling, and the subtle but unmistakeable differences in language, subject, and style between "his" many posts, are leading some of us to conclude that "he" is in fact a number of separate individuals acting in a concerted manner as a group to attack us and the forum.
Yes, that was precisely my intent. And while it may be just a "conspiracy theory", the circumstantial evidence is very strong in support of it, especially after sharing experiences wth other members of many other forums in which anti-establishment sentiments and information are expressed and shared.
Wonder where Simon Hobbs gets all the spare time for trolling?
I did a Google search on him and surprise! The term "Simon Hobbs Idiot" came up third on the search frequency. Hmmm.
Somewhere in England, a village has lost its idiot…
I'm not sure I'd agree that it's an organized conspiracy, but point 1 makes sense - individuals that have profited from the corrupt financial system feel threatened by gold and thus make every effort to discredit it.
May 6, 2008
Goldman's Murti Says Oil `Likely' to Reach $150-$200
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ayxRKcAZi630
bwahahaha. Fuck Goldman and go long on Gold.
My reason for shifting assets into precious metals is this: I have lost confidence in the government on my home, the USA. The President is a rabble-rousing anti-business union activist; the Congress is controlled by liberal kooks, and the Judiciary is controlled by liberal kooks. The Constitution is road kill. The economy is road kill. We are fighting two wars abroad and are unwilling to control our Mexican border. Iran, Venezuela, North Korea, China, and Russia are aligning against us. No one is really with us anymore. Keep your US Dollars. It may be that, suddenly, they are nearly worthless.
News I spotted in the latest issue of Coin World (May 24th, page 58):
"Perth Mint appoints firm to distribute gold ingots."
This was not an ad, but a Coin World announcement like they usually do.
Coins N Things, Inc. of Bridgewater, Mass.
I looked for a website but found none, however, several traders' email addresses and phone number were listed in the article. 508-697-0699. Says they already distribute the Perth Mint Nugget gold coins and have been in business for 37 years.
A wide variety of gold .9999 was listed including 5, 10, 20 grams, and 1 and 10 ounce sizes.
I have no interest in this personally but thought I'd pass it along anyway.
Does anyone know more?
A local dealer here in CT is also marketing Perth Mint bars. My guess is they are building out their retail distribution network in the US. Pamp has been doing the same in Australia. The Perth Mint bars look nice, but not as nice as Pamps.
APMEX is lately carrying the Perth Mint gold bars as well. They are rather attractive, although I do not understand why they are enclosed in such oversized cards/holders. That's just a quibble, though --- if I were in the market for a gold bar, they would be near the top of my list based on attractiveness of the bar itself.
I concur; the shiny 'Roo design is quite fetching even compared to (lead-lined?) Pandas.
I'm sticking with the ole U. S. Mint Eagles in assorted sizes, both gold and silver.
There will be a lot of bent bars in the future -- looking for that tasty nougat center.
Wow, just came back from tai chi class, took a shower, ate dinner and went online to ZH, all to find that the Haters never came to battle.
Maybe they are all young liberals who want to go to work for the IRS or Justice Department and come and get us when they ban gold.
DCRB, I was fully expecting that ball to drop as well --- nice that it never did.
I should reiterate that I would not mind, and do not mind, comments from those who are ignorant about owning gold, or even skeptical of it; diversity of opinion is the spice of life. I just can't abide the haters and obvious anti-gold trolls, though.
Coin shop sellers act like nothing is new or different. A new guy like me walks in and is an annoyance To them since I am not a numismatist. Just want the coins please. Any year will do.
Putting a gold or silver eagle in the hands of my kids is an amazing sight. They want to keep them, cherish them. Actually feeling weight in the coin makes a big difference. There is all this weirdness about buying gold. It is not something you buy; you convert your paper to metal. Gives you a sense of power and joy and responsibility. Just a touch. The haters are just ashamed to try it. Go to the dingy coin shop with $25 and get a silver eagle. No Big Deal hater!
You are right to a certain degree, Bear. Coin shops prefer numismatists because that's where the margins are. Don't begrudge a dealer for selling a collectable coin for a 30 to 50% markup over cost. It takes a LOT of work to break down a coin collection and grade the coins, sometimes paying for the cost of a slab for the better ones. I am both numismatist and coin dealer, but I don't sell bullion in the normal course of business. Go to a coin show and you'll be able to pick up bullion coins at the best mark-ups. The bullion sales pay the cost to attend the show (table rent, show fees, motel room, meals, vehicle expenses, etc.) When all is said and done, you are still dealing with a person. He/she may have gotten up on the wrong side of the bed the day you meet them. Give them as much leeway as you would any other salesperson. You got your bad and you got your good.
Double Do Deca reverse psychology!
This is not to be traded against. This is like the GS oil price call in 2008. The cabal is about to start a bubble in gold. See Janet Tavakoli's piece on the subject.
http://www.tavakolistructuredfinance.com/Gold.pdf
She looks like she's going to take a position or already has one for a short period of time and going to make a killing.
Long term, not too much.
But from her missive it looks very bullish for gold over the next year.
Are you sure that 'cabal' isn't exclusively speaking Mandarin?
If you think gold is in a bubble, check out the comments section of this blog article. A good window into the opinion of the "average joe" non-investor.
http://consumerist.com/2010/05/is-gold-fever-the-next-hog-bubble.html
Looks like the ratio to gold advocates to bashers is about equal. Like when the trolls show up on a ZH gold themed post. That just shows that the future is uncertain I suppose. That would be one for CD to go to work on. I'd like to read his thoughts on the matter.
I don't want to own gold thanks. There are much cheaper options to prepare for your expected outcomes, which have less risk attached. It's unfortunate that many on here would call me a troll or doubt my sanity. It's arrogant and naive to think that you've stumbled upon some holy grail and that everyone else is wrong. The hysteria surrounding gold is evident and people are well within their rights to question the speculative drive created by futures markets. Yes, I may be wrong and gold will go from here to 5000 but i'm prepared in other ways for a fiat fallout so my life will not capitulate because I don't have shiny metal in my basement. Both sides of the prediction should attach less emotional bias to this trade. The deep desire to be proved right is clouding many people's views and is distracting them from the shorter time frames of pricing and events.
I would not consider you a troll for expressing your opinions on gold as you did, and I thank you for them. I think you may possibly be somewhat uninformed or misinformed on the subject, but you did not blast in here damning those who do own gold, calling them idiots or insulting them, and so I can respect your comments.
One thing you may want to consider, and keep in mind, is that it is probably safe to say that the vast majority of current gold owners, and advocates of owning gold, are not hysterical about gold in and of itself, but are "hysterical", if that is the right word, about the unsustainable and outright insane fiscal and monetary paths that this nation and our government are pursuing. It is as a refuge from that inevitable smashup that many of us are fleeing into gold. Personally, I would actually rather not be putting any money into gold at all, but would instead prefer to be making solid investments in equities, bonds or even CDs that earned a rate of interest greater than the inflation rate. But none of those options look safe, reasonable or available to many of us right now, nor does merely holding money in the bank, due to both the risk of bank failure (not to mention failure of the entire banking system), as well as the much larger risk of depreciation or collapse of the dollar itself.
It is not so much gold that we are attracted to ---- it is the financial and monetary dangers that we are frightened by, and from which we are safeguarding our savings by putting them into gold. And just remember, even in the last few decades, hundreds of millions of people in dozens of countries have lost most or all of their accumulated savings, and their standards of living, due to runaway inflation or currency collapse; in fact, it may be safe to say that such situations are the rule, and almost guaranteed, over the course of decades under a fiat currency regime. And in almost every one of those cases, the road that led to those bad outcomes is exactly the same road that the USA and every major industrialized nation is on today. I suspect that history will be no kinder to our nation's fiscal excesses than it was to any of those others.
Damn! I wish I were as articulate as Akak. He has said what any normal, sane PM holder would say. You are not a troll. I can assure you that if plain old vanilla bank CDs were paying a decent rate much of my metals would be on the market! PMs are a hedge against crazy politicians, central banks, asteroids, volcanoes, and angry ex-wives. Carry on!
BTW, Akak, I will steal much of your verbiage above and use it as my own. Just fair warning that I will plagiarize your eloquent words.
Thank you for the compliments, Rocky --- they are much appreciated, although I do not find myself typically either particularly eloquent or concise. I just hope that I was able to sufficiently convey my thoughts, which it appears that I have.
You may plagiarize anything that I write to your heart's content.
EURUSD / EURJPY continues to show buying support on intra day chart.
EURGBP daily chart gives mild bullish warnings.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1
Just thought I let you know, physical gold (no huge quantity, a few ounces in kinebars) seems to be difficult to get even directly from UBS in Switzerland: theoretically it takes a day to get them in your local branch, now it's at least 2 days (ie tomorrow, hopefully).
Gold Bitches Unite against the squid. It's simple people don't get emotional.
Think like a squid! I do. Short everything htey say 9 days after they say it cuase the HFT's kick in on day 10. All the charts in the world mean squat when the vampire comes a calling.
I almost shit. Bloomberg TV is actually carrying this... While the Squid, JPM, and BofA were touting oil to their customers, they were dumping their US Oil ETF shares. Nobody's surprised. But they keep repeating it with a "what kind of bullshit is this?" grin.
Is it possible that us dipsticks on Main Street might get told the truth, that there are other reasons to hate the Banksters besides being indentured slaves to their financial fuckups?
Nah. I'm dreaming.
No, just more lies from GS as they must have known about this:
"In a recent required 13F filing, Soros revealed that his Soros Fund Management had cut back on his position in SPDR Gold by 9.6 percent, probably from concerns over the high rise in price of the safe haven metal."
This sort of news hit to a commodity is good for a day or two then it's back up and will close higher by the end of the week.
Thanks for the dip Lloyd.
Chickens, bitches!