Goldman Revises NFP Expectation To +600K From +500K, Entirely Due To Census

Tyler Durden's picture

1. The ISM nonmfg headline index stays unchanged at 55.4 in May. A slight decline in the new orders index (by 1.1 points to 57.1) is offset by a small rise in the business activity index (by 0.8 points to 61.1). The employment index rises modestly from 49.5 to 50.4, while the supplier deliveries index weakens half a point to 53. Although the inventory indexes (both inventory change and sentiment) rise strongly (by 8 and 7 points, respectively), these figures are not seasonally adjusted and it is hard to interpret inventory changes in the non-manufacturing sector.

2. We are raising our estimate for tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls release for May to +600,000 from +500,000 previously. This is composed of a Census contribution of +450,000 (vs. +350,000 in our previous estimate) and a private sector contribution of +150,000 (unchanged). We also expect the unemployment rate to decline from 9.9% to 9.7% and average hourly earnings to rise 0.1% (both unchanged from our previous estimate).

3. Factory orders rose 1.2% in April, a bit below expectations. There were few surprises in the durable goods components.  Nondefense capital goods orders ex aircraft fell 2.6% but this followed a revised 6.7% gain in March.

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wagefreedom's picture

sell the (non)news...who's drinking census kool-aid?...right shoulder time

Crab Cake's picture

Is it right shoulder time?  Bust that groove!

I put my hand up on your hip. When I dip, you dip, we dip.

Freak Nasty - Da Dip

etrader's picture

Is this  Jan the-benchmark Hatzius' note?

HarryWanger's picture

Started scaling in my SDS position at 33.35. Will add later this afternoon. Unless the number is 800k+ the market will sell. God help them if it comes in light.

BlackBeard's picture

Patience grasshopper.  Better to buy straddle vs. naked punt.

Cursive's picture

God help them if it comes in light.

Light or just right, God damn them all!  Benron, Stammering Hank, Diet Coke Summers, Timmay the Tax Cheat, Dubya, Barack O' Potus, etc.  May they all get what they deserve.  Maybe not in this life, but certainly in the Hereafter.

ZeroPower's picture

Dunno. Been short throughout the week and made some good gains from future drops o/n but today closed everything out and took a small long.

There has been lots of emphasis as this number being THE number to make us forget about Dow < 10k, the flash crash, and even Europe's woes. So maybe there is indeed TOO MUCH emphasis on it that theres no way it can deliver. OR, i propose another thesis, that any number even 1k above conensus will simply bring us the 300k rally the cnbs talking heads have been hoping for all week.

I prefer to err on the side of caution, in this case its required, even though i would LOVE to see this bring a 500+ down day.

unwashedmass's picture


nice to get the pre-announce. thanks.

Double down's picture

Hurrah!!!! Everything is well again.  Those were two awful years, eh!!  Pass me a beer.  

101 years and counting's picture

GS got the memo this morning that each census worker was hired and fired 4x each, instead of the 3x they had forecast.


knightmare's picture

Goldman Sachs is the government.

Fazzie's picture

Yes, but according to one of those slideshows on CNBC (for those who cant read propaganda good), there is a perfectly innocent explanation.

 You see, GS has a rep for hiring the "best and brightest" and this naturally makes their employees desireable for govt appointments since they would be the most apt to face the "challenges of public service".


 The other interpetation of the revolving door, ie goldman buying off the govt, is mentioned, but those who would hold such a cynical view are of course"conspiricy theorists", ie the same crowd who thinks the moon landings were faked.

  Well I must be a nutcase too, because I beleive the squids tentacles not only are firmy wrapped around congress, but this blatant propaganda peice is evidence of another tentacle grasping the MSM.

 This anchors the squids body so its blood funnel can extract taxpayer cash when it fails even with a rigged game and all that "best and brightest" talent at the helm. Oh yeah, unborn generations are getting their wealth sucked away too just for good measure.

 (rant off)


Conrad Murray's picture

 You see, GS has a rep for hiring the "best and brightest" and this naturally makes their employees desireable for govt appointments since they would be the most apt to face the "challenges of public service".

I remember watching the Charlie Rose interview where Lloyd tried to spew this line out after being asked why the GS tentacles reached so far.  It was an uncomfortable exchange to endure.  I'd never be able to host a show like that because I'd beat the guests senseless.

Somewhere in here:

ejmoosa's picture

If we are counting census jobs as real, permanent jobs, are we also counting casino winnings as real earnings?

Real employment will not rise significantly until four quarters AFTER year over year earnings of 6%. 

Until then, it's all diversionary noise.



snowball777's picture

All our 'casino winnings' are taxed at a gracious 15%.

Agreed on the earnings before hiring call...why would they want to give up increased productivity for employee while the economy is still in a sling?


silvertrain's picture

 Getting out the hydraulic jacks are we..Go for it, I just got back from the local pawn shop where I grabbed a fresh roll of 2010 ase eagles..Well, 2 short of a full roll, and now he's OUT OF SILVER PERIOD.....

papaswamp's picture

you silver addict you! (yea me too).

HarryWanger's picture

Ben not sounding so confident:


  1. 11:15a

    Bernanke: Important concerns remain about economy

  2. 11:15a

    Bernanke cites high jobless rate as concern

  3. 11:15a

    Bernanke: Important concerns remain about economy

  4. 11:15a

    Bernanke: Lending to small businesses declining


reading's picture

He's just building cover so he can maintain ZIRP for rest of the century

chindit13's picture

"Lending to small businesses declining"

Since we have had no major announcements of large firm, large-scale hirings---which their PR departments would most assuredly tout---and banks are not lending to the other possible engine of private sector employment growth---small businesses---this seems to be the closest Bernanke will ever come to admitting that the recovery, and the "expected to be better than expected" employment number, is horseshit.

Mako's picture


Until credit creation goes positive it remains a up move within a much larger down move.  I suspect we have been in a death spiral for over a year.

Every day that goes by requires more and more power to sustain the system.

Last 8 quarters, death spiral.

50812.6 51272.7 52082.5 52524.9 52882.7 52686.7 52549.1 52416.7

In 2007 credit expansion was at a $4.7T annualized rate.  The fat lady is not singing but she started warming up well over a year ago.

chindit13's picture

Because of the quarterly bonus payments now instituted at Goldman Sachs, most employees were able to "pass the wealth" and hired another maid, a pool boy, and a gardener.  Goldman significant others, often bored by their partners' long work weeks, applaud the move.

bigkahuna's picture

Whats that pounding sensation?

carbonmutant's picture

 Census takers have discovered several caches of undocumented workers in all US border states... except Arizona.


Blues Traveler's picture

And in the meantime, FT "World currency unit intended to rival U.S. dollar for supremacy'

Carl Spackler's picture

Seriously, how idiotic is it to even discuss a fiat paper, world currency unit when the closest thing, the Euro, is proving to be a disaster?

Liberals continue to corner the market on unbridled stupidity.

And, we already have various world currency units. They are called silver, gold, and petroleum.


FourWude's picture

The US govt has been adding bogus numbers to inflate the Census jobs. They hire and then fire and hire again the same person so they can "create 2 jobs" instead of the temporaray 1 job that may have been created.



vote_libertarian_party's picture

....and the +150,000 has 2 parts

1>100,000 fantasy birth/death adds

2>50,000 'real' jobs


Oh, adult age working population grows 120,000 per month so were still increasing in the unemployment rate...D'OOHH!!!

Zina's picture
Say goodbye to full-time jobs with benefits:

It's CNN, it's not me..

Cursive's picture

Yes.  I'm part of that vast armada of "consultants" or "independent contractors" that have grown so prevalent since 2001.  It's a completely different existence.  I earn 50 to 30% less than my peak when I was employed at a regional utility company until 2007.  Leo has been pounding the table about the household survey.  Well, the household survey is a reflection of the growth of independent consultants, many of whom did not undertake the effort voluntarily.