Goldman Sachs Beatdown To Continue Until LBO Chances Improve: Outlook Revised To Negative By Fitch

FITCH AFFIRMS GOLDMAN SACHS' IDRS AT 'A+/F1+'; REVISES OUTLOOK TO NEGATIVE
 
Fitch Ratings-New York-05 May 2010: Fitch Ratings has affirmed the 'A+/F1+' long- and short-term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) for The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (Goldman). Fitch has also revised Goldman's Rating Outlook to Negative from Stable.  A complete list of ratings follows this release.
 
The rating affirmation is indicative of Goldman's de-levered balance sheet, proven earnings power, and its prominence and demonstrated success in global capital markets and sales & trading.  Additionally, Goldman continues to exhibit strong liquidity management, maintaining significant global core excess balances. Since the economic crisis began, Goldman has consistently outperformed its global banking peers; those favorable trends have continued through first-quarter 2010 (1Q'10).
 
The Rating Outlook revision to Negative incorporates recent legal developments and ongoing regulatory challenges that could adversely impact Goldman's reputation and revenue generating capacity. Goldman's franchise and market position are potentially vulnerable to scrutiny by stakeholders, and like peers, may be affected by the industry's regulatory evolution.
 
Subsequent to civil fraud charges filed by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) last month, it appears that the U.S. Attorney's Office in
Manhattan is initiating a criminal probe in connection with Goldman's mortgage trading activity.  Given the level of recent public scrutiny, it is not
surprising that other authorities outside of the U.S. have also expressed intentions to investigate select mortgage-related transactions conducted by
Goldman. At a minimum, Fitch believes the civil charges to date and the pending criminal investigation, coupled with a highly public hearing by the U.S. Senate's Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, generate adverse publicity that tarnishes Goldman's reputation. And for financial services companies, particularly those dependent on the capital markets, reputation is critically important. Moreover, expected follow-on shareholder and investor claims are likely to invariably consume management time and financial resources as well.
 
Fitch believes Goldman has ample financial resources to address any potential monetary fine or settlement (including full restitution to impacted parties) that may arise from the SEC civil suit, as well as any assessments that may materialize at the conclusion of the pending investigation. The level of any fines or assessments by any agencies outside of the U.S. could not be accurately estimated at this time, but Fitch acknowledges that these have generally not proven to be debilitating. While not expected, Fitch believes Goldman's franchise is  at greater risk in the event the company was to be the recipient of a formal criminal indictment.  However, Fitch does not foresee such an extreme outcome for Goldman.
 
Additionally, regulatory reform currently under consideration may curtail some of Goldman's core business activities. Higher capital requirements, central clearing of derivatives, restricted proprietary trading and investment activity are key legislative items currently being contemplated that would challenge Goldman's current business model. These reforms may favorably influence the risk profile, but potentially reduce revenues, increase costs or reduce profitability in select businesses. It is not certain at this time how extensive final legislation will ultimately be in the government's efforts to contain systemic risk. Fitch believes the probability is high, though some limitation on Goldman's current business activities, along with those of the company's peers, will occur. Despite any necessary business adaptations, Fitch expects Goldman will position itself to compete successfully in its key business segments.
 
Fitch believes there are a variety of outcomes that may materialize with respect to Goldman's future ratings. The most pessimistic downgrade scenarios entail adverse decisions in the pending suits and investigations, coupled with highly restrictive financial reform. The extent of any downgrade would depend on the ultimate legal decisions and financial outlays, with adverse conclusions in the criminal investigation resulting in more severe downgrades of both the IDRs and Individual rating.  Absent serious negative legal results, Fitch does not envision any adverse outcome that would precipitate a downgrade to Goldman's IDR below the 'A' rating category.
 
Fitch continues to have regular dialogue with management with regard to the aforementioned circumstances, as well as pending regulatory reforms.  If the legal issues and regulatory reforms turn out to be minor events for Goldman, Fitch would view these as positive credit developments with corresponding implications for our perspective on risk, and the Outlook would likely be revised to Stable.
 
Fitch has affirmed the following ratings and revised the Rating Outlook to Negative from Stable:
 
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
 
--Long-term IDR at 'A+';
 
--Long-term senior debt at 'A+';
 
--Individual at 'B/C';
 
--Short-term IDR at'F1+';
 
--Short-term debt at 'F1+';
 
--Subordinated debt at 'A';
 
--Preferred equity at 'A-';
 
--Long-term debt guaranteed by TLGP at 'AAA';
 
--Short-term debt guaranteed by TLGP at 'F1+';
 
--Support at'5';
 
--Support Floor at 'NF'.
 
Goldman Sachs Capital I
 
--Trust preferred at 'A-'.
 
Goldman Sachs Capital II
 
--Trust preferred at 'A-'.
 
Goldman Sachs Capital III
 
--Trust preferred at 'A-'.
 
Goldman Sachs Paris Inc. et Cie.
 
--Long-term IDR at 'A+'';
 
--Long-term IDR at 'F1+'.
 
Goldman Sachs Bank, USA
 
--Long-term IDR at 'A+';
 
--Long-term senior debt at 'A+';
 
--Long-term deposits at `AA-';
 
--Short-term IDR at 'F1+';
 
--Short-term debt at `F1+';
 
--Short-term deposits at `F1+';
 
--Support at '1'.
 
--Long-term debt guaranteed by TLGP at `AAA';
 
--Short-term debt guaranteed by TLGP at `F1+';
 
Goldman Sachs Bank (Europe) Plc
 
--Senior secured guaranteed debt at 'A+';
 
--Short-term secured guaranteed debt at 'F1+';
 
--Short-term debt at 'F1+'.
 
Goldman Sachs International
 
--Senior secured debt at 'A+';
 
--Short-term debt at 'F1+'.
 
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is a top tier global bank, providing capital markets, financial advisory, asset management and securities services. Goldman is an active market maker in most global markets, facilitating trading on behalf of its customers, and also committing firm capital to its proprietary trading and merchant banking businesses. Business activities are now divided into three segments:
 
--Investment Banking;
 
--Trading & Principal Investments; and
 
--Asset Management and Securities Services.
 
Additional information on Fitch's views of future bank regulation is available in the March 25 special report, 'U.S. Financial Institutions Financial Reform:
Five Issues to Watch', available at 'www.fitchratings.com'.
 
Today's announcement reflects the application of Fitch's current criteria which is also available on Fitch's web site and specifically includes:
 
--'Global Financial Institutions Criteria' (Dec. 29, 2009);
 
--'Rating Criteria for Securities Firms' (Dec. 30, 2009).

Comments

[Cognitive Dissonance]

Looks like Goldman wants to reset (down) all those executive stock option strike prices.

[williambanzai7]

Pass me the tobasco sauce please...

[JW n FL]

Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits.(d) Exhibits.The following exhibits are being filed as part of this Current Report on Form 8-K:

99.1 Complaint, dated April 22, 2010, filed on behalf of Robert Rosinek with the Supreme Court of the State of New York, County of New York.

99.2 Complaint, dated April 22, 2010, filed on behalf of Morton Spiegel with the Supreme Court of the State of New York, County of New York.

99.3 Complaint, dated April 26, 2010, filed on behalf of Hal Hubuschman with the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.

99.4 Complaint, dated April 26, 2010, filed on behalf of Margaret C. Richardson with the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.

99.5 Amended Complaint, dated April 28, 2010, filed on behalf of Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority and International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 98 Pension Fund with the Court of Chancery of the State of Delaware.

99.6 Complaint, dated April 29, 2010, filed on behalf of James Clem with the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.

99.7 Shareholder Demand Letter, dated April 23, 2010.

UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K CURRENT REPORT Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): April 22, 2010
THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP, INC.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/886982/000095012310042391/y84170e...