This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Goldman says "Market fears that the country is manipulating the data are exaggerated"

Reggie Middleton's picture




 

From CNBC: China GDP Likely Grew by 13% in December: O'Neill

China's
economy likely grew by 13 percent in the last month of 2009 and market
fears that the country is manipulating the data are exaggerated,
Goldman Sachs' Jim O'Neill told CNBC...

"I
think there are valid concerns out there with regards to economic data
in China," Clive McDonnell, a regional strategist at BNP Paribas
Securities, said.

"One is the issue of
inflation. China releases its monthly inflation data before the end of
the month, and that does raise a bit of skepticism there," he said,
pointing out also that although the country reports car sales rises in
the double digits, gasoline sales increase by only 2 to 3 percent. Hey buddy,
haven't you heard that cars are getting more and more efficient these
days. Did you fail to consider the possibility of 2 million Prius's
being sold to the Chinese??? Huh! :-)

O'Neill
said fears of asset bubbles in China because of the country's rapid
growth and lax fiscal and monetary conditions are "completely
overblown." He also pointed out that the Chinese stock market has not
made a new high since August. I'm at a loss as to how
anyone can fail to consider the potential for a real estate asset
bubble in China. Maybe I'm just paranoid...

"Market fears that the country is manipulating the data are exaggerated".
Wait a minute! Isn't this the same nation that killed an untold amount
of people for attempting to exercise the obviously "alienable" right of
free speech and right to gather in public places???

From Wikipedia: Tiananmen Square protests of 1989

The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989, referred to in most of the world as the Tiananmen Square massacre and in the People's Republic of China (PRC) as the June Fourth Incident (officially to avoid confusion with two prior Tiananmen Square protests), were a series of demonstrations in and near Tiananmen Square in Beijing in the PRC beginning on 14 April 1989. Led mainly by students and intellectuals, the protests occurred in a year that saw the collapse of a number of communist governments around the world.

The protests were sparked by the death of a pro-democracy and anti-corruption official, Hu Yaobang, whom protesters wanted to mourn. By the eve of Hu's funeral, 100,000 people had gathered at Tiananmen square.[1] The protests lacked a unified cause or leadership; participants included disillusioned Communist Party of China members and Trotskyists as well as free market reformers, who were generally against the government's authoritarianism and voiced calls for economic change[2][3] and democratic reform[3] within the structure of the government.
The demonstrations centered on Tiananmen Square, in Beijing, but
large-scale protests also occurred in cities throughout China,
including Shanghai, which remained peaceful throughout the protests.

The movement lasted seven weeks, from Hu's death on 15 April until tanks cleared Tiananmen Square on 4 June. In
Beijing, the resulting military response to the protesters by the PRC
government left many civilians and military personnel charged with
clearing the square of the dead or severely injured. The number of
deaths is not known and many different estimates exist.[4][5]
[Very much like China's economic data -Reggie]

Following
the conflict, the government conducted widespread arrests of protesters
and their supporters, cracked down on other protests around China, banned
the foreign press from the country and strictly controlled coverage of
the events in the PRC press. Members of the Party who had publicly
sympathized with the protesters were purged, with several high-ranking
members placed under house arrest, such as General Secretary Zhao Ziyang.
There was widespread international condemnation of the PRC government's use of force against the protesters.[3]

 Right. Accurate economic reporting is literally guaranteed to come out of China! For more on my opinion of China, see the China Macro Update, (also of interest is the HSBC opinion and 2H08 update).Then My view of the China hype bears additional fruit and All of my warnings about China are starting to look rather prescient.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Tue, 01/05/2010 - 18:47 | 183508 CBTeas
CBTeas's picture

If Goldman says that the data is not manipulated we have to accept that as FACT.  The data crunchers do what Goldman tells them to do.  Made up data can't possibly be manipulated.  "Manipulation" assumes facts as a starting point.  Wrong.

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 17:45 | 183399 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

China 2010 is pretty damn far from China 1989, in just about every sense. They've gone from being a communist society to a capitalist one, and they execute fewer people than the US to boot.

If I had to choose between China and the US, I would choose China. Luckily, I don't have to. I choose what can't be inflated away instead.

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 17:39 | 183384 Harbourcity
Harbourcity's picture

Posted by Reggie in another thread:

There are also those who feel they must anonymously troll the blogosphere to attack from behind keyboards. If you belong to any of these camps, this is your opportunity to stop reading RIGHT HERE and move on to another post. This way, we can avoid the senseless vitriol and unproductive noise that will inevitably end up in the comments section.

 

A comment like this goes against the fundamental structure of ZH.  Isn't a paramount of ZH the idea that who writes the story doesn't matter compared to the story itself?  Just because you associate an alias with a post doesn't make it any less anonymous.  It seems that anonymous posters are only trolls when they go against what is being said.  Are we so self-righteous that we are shades of the ruling elite where as long as you agree, you're our friend? 

If you subscribe to that comment by Reggie, you need to re-evaluate your own value system. 

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 16:32 | 183288 chunkylover42
chunkylover42's picture

What's interesting to me is that he used the word "exaggerated" when referencing market fears that the data is manipulated.  To me that's an implicit admission that the data IS manipulated, it's just not as bad as we all think it is (which may, in fact, be a correct assertion).

If there was no data manipulation, the correct way to phrase that would be to use the word "unfounded" or some such equivalent.

Maybe I'm just reading too much into a statement made on live TV, but those Goldmanites are not stupid people.  I suspect he knew exactly what he was saying.

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 17:31 | 183368 Harbourcity
Harbourcity's picture

What's interesting to me is that he used the word "exaggerated" when referencing market fears that the data is manipulated.  To me that's an implicit admission that the data IS manipulated, it's just not as bad as we all think it is (which may, in fact, be a correct assertion).

Very insightful.  It is very true that what isn't said is as important as what is said. 

 

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 16:03 | 183258 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Like we have honest data in the states...just read this off another sites comments section regarding BLS data...maybe someone could add more?

""I just received a letter from the Bureau of Labor Statistics informing me that my company will no longer be included in the sample for the Current
Employment Statistics (CES) survey. I find it interesting that this comes after we have laid off 50% of our workforce in 2009. Upon reflection I also remember thinking that it was interesting originally when we were asked to be included in the sample after doubling our workforce in 2006.

Some interesting data dontcha think?""

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 15:08 | 183217 oddsman
oddsman's picture

China's being honest about one thing...You won't be getting much rare earth metal.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/concern-as-china-clamps-dow...

 

Or the yellow, not-so-useful but pretty kind of rare earth metal...

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_08/vronsky122909.html

 

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 14:27 | 183177 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

It is nice to see Sinophobia is alive and well. You chuckleheads should do a little more research into the Tiananmen Square incident.

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 14:18 | 183170 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Anything that Goldman says is junk.

What a bunch of financial fuck ups masquerading as good citizens... go fuck some other country's treasury.

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 14:09 | 183159 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Look at this... the marriage of business and crime...is the new norm and everywhere:
Bulgaria journalist Boris Tsankov gunned down in Sofia

The book - based on his contacts with underworld bosses such as the drug dealer Anton Miltenov - who was shot dead in 2005 - alleged links between mafia figures and businessmen.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8441956.stm

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 14:09 | 183158 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Wow----coming from Government Sachs that means a lot. Goldman Sachs is like the mother ship of lies, deceit, corruption, and criminal manipulation of the fiat ponzi scheme. And you say "tell me something I don't know?".

Well, evidently there must be an awful lot of absolute brain-dead, CNBC (or ESPN) watching fools out there that don't have clue, because if they did, nobody would even ask to hear what the criminals at Government Sachs think.

The saddest part of the entire corrupt, fiat ponzi scheme is that the problems we face in the United Socialist States of America would never have occurred if our population wasn't completely and totally brain dead.

It's funny how the marxist regime in the USSA uses the education system to brainwash an ignorant, apathetic public, yet, they are very careful not to force them to learn finance 101; perhaps because if they did, nobody would listen to Government Sachs....I stand corrected, even if the government did require it's serfs to understand finance, it would be taught by the criminals at Government Sachs and be worth about as much as our fiat money system.

Criminals!

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 13:57 | 183150 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I seriously thought this article was going to be about the U.S. when I saw the headline only before I clicked through.

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 13:42 | 183126 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"The country reports car sales rises in the double digits, gasoline sales increase by only 2 to 3 percent."

How is this a problem? If the total number of cars on the road were growing in the double digits vs gas at 2-3%, I'd get your point, but that's a whale of a lot different that car SALES growing at double digits.

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 17:29 | 183364 Harbourcity
Harbourcity's picture

Are you implying that China is becoming a Hedonist type society like the US where a car "sale" doesn't imply a car on the road...? 

 

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 13:35 | 183122 merehuman
merehuman's picture

Oh , PLease somebody junk me. After all i am a citizen. The truth has been junked, so has the country and all ideas and hopes we had.

Future is junk. Do you feel junky? I do. Its exhilarating to fly in the air on my way to the dump. Its comments like these that make me glad i didnt teach both dogs to read

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 13:17 | 183104 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

ZH does not try to control free speach with the flag as junk feature. The flag as junk feature is used by insecure people who are aggrieved by the tone or insanity of a comment. At this site, when someone who knows what they are talking about does not like what a person says in a comment, they come at the person as a reply. They identify themselves and tell the person that what they wrote is pure junk and why they think it is pure junk. They do not use the flag as junk feature.

For some reason I was suppose to sign in to make this comment. I am Waterdog, holder of the junk flag title.

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 15:48 | 183245 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

In theory, flag as junk would be used on posts that are clearly commercial or simply incoherent.  That's how I use it.  But it does seem to have become the little soviet's symbol of disapproval.

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 12:49 | 183036 Scooby Dooby Doo
Scooby Dooby Doo's picture

Too funny.

Didn't Reggie try to control free speech and prevent gatherings in public blog comment sections this morning:

There are also those who feel they must anonymously troll the blogosphere to attack from behind keyboards. If you belong to any of these camps... stop RIGHT HERE.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/reggie-middletons-year-end-note-subscri...

And for that matter ZH tries to control free speech with the 'flag as junk' feature.

--------------------------------------------------------

"he said, pointing out also that although the country reports car sales rises in the double digits, gasoline sales increase by only 2 to 3 percent."

I thought Reggie would know that almost all vehicles in China are dual fuel. Gasoline to start the engine, and Natty to run. Given the figure 2-3% increase sounds reasonable to me.

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 17:26 | 183359 Harbourcity
Harbourcity's picture

hahahha Scoob's comments about the 'flag as junk' feature were flagged as junk... hhahaha

 

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 14:35 | 183190 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Perhaps China's "sale" of a vehicle simply means building it, much like their GDP figures, which count a product when it is made, not when it is sold. So, they could very well have "sold" a gajillion vehicles which are simply not being driven, and therefore don't increase fuel usage.

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 13:09 | 183096 Anonymouse
Anonymouse's picture

Good point Scoob.

There is no practical difference between making a request for anonymous attacks to cease or marking a comment as junk and running over a peaceful protester with a tank.  None at all.

Have another scooby snack

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 13:35 | 183118 Scooby Dooby Doo
Scooby Dooby Doo's picture

Thanks for clarifying my argument. Once again you're right on target.

But if the kids at home missed it, Hypocrisy is always fun to point out. Especially with the holier-than-thou.

And point 2) NatGas cost roughly 0.25 cents per gallon(USD conversion). So why buy gasoline?

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 20:02 | 183616 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

At .25 cents per gallon it comes to about 2.5 cents for a conventional tankful... either you are on to something big or delusional Scoob... just sayin'...

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 23:05 | 183813 Scooby Dooby Doo
Scooby Dooby Doo's picture

.

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 23:11 | 183811 Scooby Dooby Doo
Scooby Dooby Doo's picture

The crazy cat is back. Twenty-Five cents per gallon, kitty. Roughly converted from RMB's, liters, and CNG.

Here in America we would write out One Dollar like this: $1.00

We would also write One Dollar and Twenty-Five cents like this: $1.25

Thanks.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 00:58 | 183908 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

And point 2) NatGas cost roughly 0.25 cents per gallon(USD conversion). So why buy gasoline?

And in America we write one quarter of one cent like this... wait for it... 0.25 cents!

No more Scoobie snacks for you tonite!

Silly dogs... although we do seem to share a common tongue problem :)

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 19:01 | 183524 dnarby
dnarby's picture

Why don't you show us some numbers from someone other than just you?

And is China is suppressing all the info on how many cars there run CNG?  There doesn't seem to be much about it on the web.

Also, based on the level of smog I see in pictures from there, I'd hazard a guess they are still burning plenty of gasoline/diesel.

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 22:55 | 183807 Scooby Dooby Doo
Scooby Dooby Doo's picture

They burn coal dnarby. Lots of coal and as a result the air quality is slightly diminished.

The best numbers that I can give you is not a number at all.

http://www.air-china.us/en/index.html

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 12:20 | 183022 Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

Why of course the United States would NEVER stoop to such lows now, would it?

ROTFL!

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 17:16 | 183343 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

You've seen stoop progression steadily. First there was the whole bombing of financial centers, Towers, accounging wing of the pentagon, then you got the natural progression of accounting scandals with arther anderson, enron etc etc. At this point we KNOW lying manipulating bullshitters are in charge of nearly everything. It's funny that they don't think we know what we know.

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 13:54 | 183145 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

That's the country I thought the article was going to be about before I clicked to read the whole thing!

LMAO!!

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 19:01 | 183525 Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

LOL, yeah, me too!

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 17:19 | 183346 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Ya there's alot of difference between china and US. How many people died each day during vietnam. Oh wait they kept lying about that.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!