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Goldman says "Market fears that the country is manipulating the data are exaggerated"

Reggie Middleton's picture




From CNBC: China GDP Likely Grew by 13% in December: O'Neill

China's
economy likely grew by 13 percent in the last month of 2009 and market
fears that the country is manipulating the data are exaggerated,
Goldman Sachs' Jim O'Neill told CNBC...

"I
think there are valid concerns out there with regards to economic data
in China," Clive McDonnell, a regional strategist at BNP Paribas
Securities, said.

"One is the issue of
inflation. China releases its monthly inflation data before the end of
the month, and that does raise a bit of skepticism there," he said,
pointing out also that although the country reports car sales rises in
the double digits, gasoline sales increase by only 2 to 3 percent. Hey buddy,
haven't you heard that cars are getting more and more efficient these
days. Did you fail to consider the possibility of 2 million Prius's
being sold to the Chinese??? Huh! :-)

O'Neill
said fears of asset bubbles in China because of the country's rapid
growth and lax fiscal and monetary conditions are "completely
overblown." He also pointed out that the Chinese stock market has not
made a new high since August. I'm at a loss as to how
anyone can fail to consider the potential for a real estate asset
bubble in China. Maybe I'm just paranoid...

"Market fears that the country is manipulating the data are exaggerated".
Wait a minute! Isn't this the same nation that killed an untold amount
of people for attempting to exercise the obviously "alienable" right of
free speech and right to gather in public places???

From Wikipedia: Tiananmen Square protests of 1989

The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989, referred to in most of the world as the Tiananmen Square massacre and in the People's Republic of China (PRC) as the June Fourth Incident (officially to avoid confusion with two prior Tiananmen Square protests), were a series of demonstrations in and near Tiananmen Square in Beijing in the PRC beginning on 14 April 1989. Led mainly by students and intellectuals, the protests occurred in a year that saw the collapse of a number of communist governments around the world.

The protests were sparked by the death of a pro-democracy and anti-corruption official, Hu Yaobang, whom protesters wanted to mourn. By the eve of Hu's funeral, 100,000 people had gathered at Tiananmen square.[1] The protests lacked a unified cause or leadership; participants included disillusioned Communist Party of China members and Trotskyists as well as free market reformers, who were generally against the government's authoritarianism and voiced calls for economic change[2][3] and democratic reform[3] within the structure of the government.
The demonstrations centered on Tiananmen Square, in Beijing, but
large-scale protests also occurred in cities throughout China,
including Shanghai, which remained peaceful throughout the protests.

The movement lasted seven weeks, from Hu's death on 15 April until tanks cleared Tiananmen Square on 4 June. In
Beijing, the resulting military response to the protesters by the PRC
government left many civilians and military personnel charged with
clearing the square of the dead or severely injured. The number of
deaths is not known and many different estimates exist.[4][5]
[Very much like China's economic data -Reggie]

Following
the conflict, the government conducted widespread arrests of protesters
and their supporters, cracked down on other protests around China, banned
the foreign press from the country and strictly controlled coverage of
the events in the PRC press. Members of the Party who had publicly
sympathized with the protesters were purged, with several high-ranking
members placed under house arrest, such as General Secretary Zhao Ziyang.
There was widespread international condemnation of the PRC government's use of force against the protesters.[3]

 Right. Accurate economic reporting is literally guaranteed to come out of China! For more on my opinion of China, see the China Macro Update, (also of interest is the HSBC opinion and 2H08 update).Then My view of the China hype bears additional fruit and All of my warnings about China are starting to look rather prescient.




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Tue, 01/05/2010 - 18:47 | Link to Comment CBTeas
CBTeas's picture

If Goldman says that the data is not manipulated we have to accept that as FACT.  The data crunchers do what Goldman tells them to do.  Made up data can't possibly be manipulated.  "Manipulation" assumes facts as a starting point.  Wrong.

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 17:45 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 01/05/2010 - 17:39 | Link to Comment Harbourcity
Harbourcity's picture

Posted by Reggie in another thread:

There are also those who feel they must anonymously troll the blogosphere to attack from behind keyboards. If you belong to any of these camps, this is your opportunity to stop reading RIGHT HERE and move on to another post. This way, we can avoid the senseless vitriol and unproductive noise that will inevitably end up in the comments section.

 

A comment like this goes against the fundamental structure of ZH.  Isn't a paramount of ZH the idea that who writes the story doesn't matter compared to the story itself?  Just because you associate an alias with a post doesn't make it any less anonymous.  It seems that anonymous posters are only trolls when they go against what is being said.  Are we so self-righteous that we are shades of the ruling elite where as long as you agree, you're our friend? 

If you subscribe to that comment by Reggie, you need to re-evaluate your own value system. 

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 16:32 | Link to Comment chunkylover42
chunkylover42's picture

What's interesting to me is that he used the word "exaggerated" when referencing market fears that the data is manipulated.  To me that's an implicit admission that the data IS manipulated, it's just not as bad as we all think it is (which may, in fact, be a correct assertion).

If there was no data manipulation, the correct way to phrase that would be to use the word "unfounded" or some such equivalent.

Maybe I'm just reading too much into a statement made on live TV, but those Goldmanites are not stupid people.  I suspect he knew exactly what he was saying.

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 17:31 | Link to Comment Harbourcity
Harbourcity's picture

What's interesting to me is that he used the word "exaggerated" when referencing market fears that the data is manipulated.  To me that's an implicit admission that the data IS manipulated, it's just not as bad as we all think it is (which may, in fact, be a correct assertion).

Very insightful.  It is very true that what isn't said is as important as what is said. 

 

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 16:03 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 01/05/2010 - 15:08 | Link to Comment oddsman
oddsman's picture

China's being honest about one thing...You won't be getting much rare earth metal.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/concern-as-china-clamps-dow...

 

Or the yellow, not-so-useful but pretty kind of rare earth metal...

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_08/vronsky122909.html

 

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 14:27 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 01/05/2010 - 14:18 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 01/05/2010 - 14:09 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 01/05/2010 - 14:09 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 01/05/2010 - 13:57 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 01/05/2010 - 13:42 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 01/05/2010 - 17:29 | Link to Comment Harbourcity
Harbourcity's picture

Are you implying that China is becoming a Hedonist type society like the US where a car "sale" doesn't imply a car on the road...? 

 

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 13:35 | Link to Comment merehuman
merehuman's picture

Oh , PLease somebody junk me. After all i am a citizen. The truth has been junked, so has the country and all ideas and hopes we had.

Future is junk. Do you feel junky? I do. Its exhilarating to fly in the air on my way to the dump. Its comments like these that make me glad i didnt teach both dogs to read

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 13:17 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 01/05/2010 - 15:48 | Link to Comment Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

In theory, flag as junk would be used on posts that are clearly commercial or simply incoherent.  That's how I use it.  But it does seem to have become the little soviet's symbol of disapproval.

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 12:49 | Link to Comment Scooby Dooby Doo
Scooby Dooby Doo's picture

Too funny.

Didn't Reggie try to control free speech and prevent gatherings in public blog comment sections this morning:

There are also those who feel they must anonymously troll the blogosphere to attack from behind keyboards. If you belong to any of these camps... stop RIGHT HERE.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/reggie-middletons-year-end-note-subscri...

And for that matter ZH tries to control free speech with the 'flag as junk' feature.

--------------------------------------------------------

"he said, pointing out also that although the country reports car sales rises in the double digits, gasoline sales increase by only 2 to 3 percent."

I thought Reggie would know that almost all vehicles in China are dual fuel. Gasoline to start the engine, and Natty to run. Given the figure 2-3% increase sounds reasonable to me.

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 17:26 | Link to Comment Harbourcity
Harbourcity's picture

hahahha Scoob's comments about the 'flag as junk' feature were flagged as junk... hhahaha

 

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 14:35 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 01/05/2010 - 13:09 | Link to Comment Anonymouse
Anonymouse's picture

Good point Scoob.

There is no practical difference between making a request for anonymous attacks to cease or marking a comment as junk and running over a peaceful protester with a tank.  None at all.

Have another scooby snack

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 13:35 | Link to Comment Scooby Dooby Doo
Scooby Dooby Doo's picture

Thanks for clarifying my argument. Once again you're right on target.

But if the kids at home missed it, Hypocrisy is always fun to point out. Especially with the holier-than-thou.

And point 2) NatGas cost roughly 0.25 cents per gallon(USD conversion). So why buy gasoline?

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 20:02 | Link to Comment ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

At .25 cents per gallon it comes to about 2.5 cents for a conventional tankful... either you are on to something big or delusional Scoob... just sayin'...

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 23:05 | Link to Comment Scooby Dooby Doo
Scooby Dooby Doo's picture

.

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 23:11 | Link to Comment Scooby Dooby Doo
Scooby Dooby Doo's picture

The crazy cat is back. Twenty-Five cents per gallon, kitty. Roughly converted from RMB's, liters, and CNG.

Here in America we would write out One Dollar like this: $1.00

We would also write One Dollar and Twenty-Five cents like this: $1.25

Thanks.

Wed, 01/06/2010 - 00:58 | Link to Comment ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

And point 2) NatGas cost roughly 0.25 cents per gallon(USD conversion). So why buy gasoline?

And in America we write one quarter of one cent like this... wait for it... 0.25 cents!

No more Scoobie snacks for you tonite!

Silly dogs... although we do seem to share a common tongue problem :)

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 19:01 | Link to Comment dnarby
dnarby's picture

Why don't you show us some numbers from someone other than just you?

And is China is suppressing all the info on how many cars there run CNG?  There doesn't seem to be much about it on the web.

Also, based on the level of smog I see in pictures from there, I'd hazard a guess they are still burning plenty of gasoline/diesel.

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 22:55 | Link to Comment Scooby Dooby Doo
Scooby Dooby Doo's picture

They burn coal dnarby. Lots of coal and as a result the air quality is slightly diminished.

The best numbers that I can give you is not a number at all.

http://www.air-china.us/en/index.html

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 12:20 | Link to Comment Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

Why of course the United States would NEVER stoop to such lows now, would it?

ROTFL!

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 17:16 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

You've seen stoop progression steadily. First there was the whole bombing of financial centers, Towers, accounging wing of the pentagon, then you got the natural progression of accounting scandals with arther anderson, enron etc etc. At this point we KNOW lying manipulating bullshitters are in charge of nearly everything. It's funny that they don't think we know what we know.

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 13:54 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 01/05/2010 - 19:01 | Link to Comment Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

LOL, yeah, me too!

Tue, 01/05/2010 - 17:19 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Ya there's alot of difference between china and US. How many people died each day during vietnam. Oh wait they kept lying about that.

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