This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Goldman Sells Nearly Half $Billion Of Apple Stock Directly Into Their Client’s Conviction Buy Recommendation: Guess Who Really Agrees With Reggie Now!
Oh, this is getting good. For those investors and technology consumers who feel emotional attachment to publicly traded C corporations, brace your ass hairs, ’cause the truth is about to come barging out of your screen. Yesterday I posted the most recent of a long string of articles detailing the impending and inevitable margin compression coming to Apple. It is my opinion that the analysis and the logic behind the analysis is unassailable. Granted, most of the analysis is behind a paywall, but the logic is laid bare for all to see, as excerpted:
Last week I posed the question, “Is The Evidence For An Apple Margin Collapse Now Incontrovertible?“. I received some interesting, albeit, rather passionate answers – many of which failed to address the core core issue, which is can “Apple compete with the rapidly rising technological bar that is simultaneously facing rapidly dropping prices without suffering a hit to margins?”. Phrased differently, “Can Apple’s brand allow it to charge materially more for less product in the face of over 400 competing devices connected by the fastest growing and most diverse ecosystem in the business?” Sounds like a tough sell, doesn’t it? This is not about who is better, who is worse, who will win, and who will lose. It is about margins. Apple may not even be in the race if it doesn’t run, and to run may very well mean margin compression.
Well, if margin compression wasn’t “Incontrovertible” last week, it certainly should be this week. Let’s walk through margin compression as a result of excessive competition step-by-step, starting by solidifying the thesis behind the recommended updates to the Apple Margin Compression Thesis & Google’s valuation model. Subscribers, adjust your BoomBustBlog Valuation Models Accordingly:
Apple – Competition and Cost Structure Forensic Analysis and accompanying Apple iPhone Profit Margin Scenario Analysis Model – suggested use with Apple Earnings Guidance Analysis
Okay, Reggie says “Margin Compression”., What does the most esteemed of the esteemed of Sell Side Wall Street say? Let’s reference that Bastion of UnProfitable Advice, Goldman Sachs!
Be aware that I have spent considerable effort warning subscribers and free content readers of the games being played over at Apple. Apparently I am one of the very few, if not sole sources for said analytical content. In the , meantime, the esteemed broking houses of sell side Wall Street have been busy passing out big buy recommendations at unrealistic prices all day long. Reference “Goldman’s $430 Target, Screaming Buy On Apple At Its All Time High Is In Direct Contravention To Reggie Middleton’s Logic – Who’s Right? Well, Who Has Been More Right In The Past?“ Tuesday, December 14th, 2010 and “Reggie Middleton Takes The Challenge To Goldman Sach’s Apple Proclamation One Step Farther, Apple’s Closed System Risks Failure!” Wednesday, December 15th, 2010
Soooo, what do you think Goldman Sachs does as it fleeces recommends its clients attempt to ride Apple, the company with probably the most competition in the world in front of what is likely to be a global economic slowdown (at best) up to unheard of all time highs (off of its current all time high) in the face of impending margin compression?
The quick answer is they take full advantage of the illogical love-fest that was formerly know as Apple and front run the recommendation. After all, how many clients actually pay for that pesky BoomBustBlog analysis anyway. Most of them will never have a clue and we need to juice that bonus pool. It’s finally getting warm and the new Azimut models are out with those funky IPS drives (you know how the baddest chicks dig yachts!)…
From the Street.com: Goldman Sachs Sells Its ‘Conviction Buys‘
A so-called Chinese Wall is supposed to exist between investment banks’ research and asset-management divisions, but recent calls, especially coming from subprime-securites proponent Goldman Sachs, warrant further scrutiny. Goldman helped to catalyze the recent commodity sell-off as its researchers expected little upside when the economy hit a soft patch. Crude oil tumbled beneath $100 on that report. Then, two days ago, with few fundamental changes in the demand outlook, Goldman reversed its stance, advising clients to buy.
This flip-flopping from Wall Street’s most closely followed researcher is being perceived by some as client-fleecing since the bank is able to trade in proprietary accounts before it releases research and the markets react, as they often do to Goldman’s calls.
Similarly, many sell-side researchers award stocks “buy” or “overweight” ratings even as their internal asset-management units unload shares, presenting a conflict of interest and ethical dilemma. Goldman’s most famous front-runs to date were the Abacus transactions, through which the bank allegedly postured for high ratings for its mortgage-backed CDOs, sold them to clients and then shorted them.
News broke yesterday, or rather, a blogger pulled data yesterday to show that Goldman dumped 1,260,802 shares of Apple(AAPL)during the first quarter, even as its research division rated the stock “buy” and maintained its lofty $470 target. Little due diligence is done in the journalism community on the interplay between asset-management and research units.
Hmmm!!! Averaging about $340 per Apple share, Goldman sold about $428,672,680 worth of Apple stock into Apple loving, Apple can do no wrong, Apple has superior user experience, Apple will never face margin compression, Apple has shiny new products on tap, Google Android phones are cheap, I don’t care if the competition is taking over the world, Apple juice sucking client purchases. It also appears as if the street.com reference predates the NASDAQ rebalancing away from Apple, so that is not an excuse for the Goldman sale.
… Of the 58 so-called Conviction Buy stocks that Goldman recommended to clients during the first quarter, it sold 31, or more than half, according to its 13-F filing. [We did not include Goldman mutual funds in these calculations]. Of the 31 Conviction Buys that Goldman sold, it sold more than 1 million shares of 12 of those stocks, begging the question: How does Goldman define “conviction”? To most investors, it means putting your money where your mouth is.
Reggie vs Goldman SachsWhy didn’t Wall Street read my post on Lehman being a yellow lying lemon? See “Is Lehman really a lemming in disguise?” and realize that this post was made on February 20th, when Goldman Sachs had a recommended price of about $55 while this blog warned that Lehman may be done for. This very similar to when I warned about the potential demise of Bear Stearns in January, when the rest of the Street had a “buy” at about $130 per share. See Is this the Breaking of the Bear?. 7 We all know how both of these stories ended. Please click the graph to enlarge to print quality size.
If you look into my original post on performance (see “Performance!“), you can see when I recommended strong shorts on Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, both highly contrarian views at the beginning of the year, and both returned way over 100% and in the case of Goldman, is still pushing profits. |
Reggie’s Analysis Trounces Goldman’s Nearly Every Time, But It Has Nothing To Do With His Being Smarter Or Better. Reggie Doesn’t Have Clients To Front Run!
Before anybody decides to jump on the Goldman bandwagon, it may be worthwhile to ascertain who was has been the most accurate over time. After all, we often query “Is It Now Common Knowledge That Goldman’s Investment Advice Sucks???” It has been asked in the past…Did Reggie Middleton, a Blogger at BoomBustBlog, Best Wall Streets Best of the Best?
The impetus of this performance discrepancy is too much to go into here. The Street.com article scratches the surface, and Matt Taibbi’s Rolling Stone article does a deep dive, reference The People vs. Goldman Sachs:
They weren’t murderers or anything; they had merely stolen more money than most people can rationally conceive of, from their own customers, in a few blinks of an eye. But then they went one step further. They came to Washington, took an oath before Congress, and lied about it.
Apple valuation
Yes, we are more optimistic on Apples’ earnings than the sell side (reference page 16 in subscription document Apple – Competition and Cost Structure). “Why is that, considering all that you have written above?”, you ask. Well, let’s delve in farther from a logical, purely analytical perspective…
Hey, but didn’t Reggie warn about this blatant manipulation many months ago?
Yer, damn skippy I did! Reference “How Google is Looking to Cut Apple’s Margin and How the Sell Side of Wall Street Will Enable This Without Sheeple Investor’s Having a Clue” (yeah, that’s right! The title says it all):
No, Google is not in the mobile space for search ads, it’s looking to become the next Microsoft with Android as the next Windows. It is thinking big, simultaneously going after both the consumer and the enterprise space with cloud-based software and services – and advertising!
In the meantime, sheeple-like investors are being hoodwinked by quarter after quarter of Apple blow out earnings. Don’t get me wrong. I feel and fully acknowledge that Apple is executing on all 8 cylinders of a 6 cylinder engine, but it still has its real world limitations. Apple will start to bump up against these limitation over the next 4 quarters, and the signs of this bump are already apparent. Of course, the signs are being handily masked by the games that Apple management and the sell side analysts of Wall Street play, with the “Sheeple” retail and the lazier component of the institutional investors being put out to take the eventual bullet.
Riddle me this – If Apple can consistently beat the estimates of your favorite analysts quarter after quarter, after quarter – for 11 quarters straight, shouldn’t you fire said analysts for incompetency in lieu of celebrating Apple’s ability to surprise? After all, it is no longer a surprise after the 11th consecutive occurrence, is it? I would be surprised if my readers were surprised by an Apple surprise. Seriously! Apple management consistently lowballs guidance to such an extent that it can easily manage, no – actually create outperformance. This has has a very positive effect on their valuation. Of course, I do not blame Apple management for this, of they are charged with maximizing shareholder return. The analytical community and the (sheeple) investors which they (allegedly) serve is another matter though. Subscribers can download the data that shows the blatant game being played between Apple and the Sell Side here: Apple Earnings Guidance Analysis. Those who need to subscribe can do so here.
Below, I drilled down on the date and used a percentage difference view to illustrate the improvement in P/E stemming from the earnings beats.
In our analysis of Apple, we are using real world assumptions of future performance derived from backing in to the low balling this company is prone to. If you look at its history carefully you can gauge what management is comfortable with, hence what they may be capable of on the margin. Using these more realistic numbers, it is much more likely Apple will deliver a miss in the upcoming quarters in its battle with the Android! The following is the reason why…
So there you have it. We have a stronger earnings component, but that earnings component is much less likely to be taken out by multiple, consecutive and repetitive upside “surprises”. In addition, we see margin compression in the near to medium term as competition ramps up. Of course, our valuation flies in the face of that of Goldman’s: Goldman’s $430 Target, Screaming Buy On Apple At Its All Time High Is In Direct Contravention To Reggie Middleton’s Logic – Who’s Right? Well, Who Has Been More Right In The Past? Tuesday, December 14th, 2010a and Reggie Middleton Takes The Challenge To Goldman Sach’s Apple Proclamation One Step Farther, Apple’s Closed System Risks Failure! Wednesday, December 15th, 2010
- advertisements -
Rumor is that Apple's going to increase margins by wrapping the iPhone in silver. That way they can trap both the Apple and silver fan boys in one big overpriced, balloon trade.
Never in history of the written word has "I" been typed in a career as often as Reggie. Someone call the Guinness Book of Records!!
That's actually not such a bad idea. I was thinking of starting a small business making some silver storage items like chess peices, kitchen scale weight sets and other such stuffs. Sort of 'hidden in plain sight' type items.
You're right Reg., send GS a bill for consultation.
apple GS and reggie are ballin bitchez
Looks to me that goldman has their corporate PR team out in force today junking the comments, or maybe it's apple, but then they wouldn't have junked me. I thought goldman people weren't allowed to read ZH. So, since it ain't happening at work unless they are paid to do it.
I hate the corporate trolls on this site
Great article. Reggie do not bother to try to convince those who have assimilated to the Apple culture. Present the facts and make your case as you have done and continue to do. Fact is that Apple often is ahead of the curve with unique and useful products. Perhaps some great new Apple product is around the corner as is often the case.
In the absence of some new technical wonder by Apple, margin compression and competition will have a dramatic effect on Apples profits. It is an overhyped and over valued stock for sure, but you will never convince the Apple culture. Apple mac's simply are overpriced proprietary versions of Linux that I would never pay for. As far as iPhones, Android devices will surpass them by leaps and bounds, for many reasons, including more favorable future prices, the same if not greater functionality and features, open development for the platform, and the competition of many vendors producing Android products.
If Apple does not continue to release new and innovative devices, then Reggies obeservation will continue to come to fruition. The Apple loving culture is not objective and will never be convinced that there may be better and/or comparable products. I would buy an Apple product if it provided functionality that I could not get from Windows, Linux, or Android, or if the price was competitive. Fact is, and understandably so, that many people love being part of the Apple culture regardless, I say good for them if it makes them happy.
One of the pc markets great strengths is that any one can develop hardware devices, there is a plethora to choose from when building/upgrading a pc, this also facilitates competitive and lower prices. This is not true for Apple, in fact Apple has a very disappointing and limited array of hardware options. Same goes for the software enviroment.
aapl stock fanbois mad they will not ever double again to 600+. lolz
Reggie - did you ever answer the apartment investment question of one of your followers? Invest in apartments or not?
Great stuff Reggie. Any thoughts on other overhyped/heated stocks, PCLN, LULU, AZO, NFLX, my suggestions?
You wish Reggie, you are part of the rotten system, you are Wall Street...you make Reggie Mantle look humble.
Thanks Reggie.
LOL...am braced. yer a card Reggie!
That GS would fleece a client is news? That they HAD NOT fleeced would be the news.
Why do clients stick with these devilish asshats?
Reggie is a nice complementary blog that helps round out zero hedge in my opinion. One of the few alternative contributors I read.
Reggie, ease up ! Elections are coming up (worldwide) and GS needs to invest in securing future bailout monies. I am sure that the Frank-Dudd bill will shelter any AAPL profit from taxes if misued properly.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GOOG+Interactive#chart8:symbol=goog;r...^ixic+^gspc;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GOOG+Interactive#chart9:symbol=goog;r...^ixic+^gspc;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GOOG+Interactive#chart10:symbol=goog;...^ixic+^gspc;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GOOG+Interactive#chart11:symbol=goog;...^ixic+^gspc;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GOOG+Interactive#chart12:symbol=goog;...^ixic+^gspc;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefinPeople
People actually pay for this advice.
Which, long story short, is the reason we're in this mess as we've been taken over by a bunch of smooth talkers who don't know shit and who's only job is to fuck each other over and finally it's reaching a breaking point.
RM....
All I can say is that you are spot on about GS....
Their business model is simple....
They set up the DOABLE....
It takes a good bit of believable sizzle to herd up the DOABLES.....
But this is exactly what GS does....
Even to the extent of infiltrating the US government.....
It it amazing how they have pulled off what they do.....
........................
Their business model rides against their client base ....
They should rename their client base as the ¨DOABLES¨.....
...................................
One of the main issues is the segregation of prospective conflicting businesses....
The exchange should be an exchange.....not a frontrunning arena.....
IB should be what it is.....not simply inside information to be gamed.....
The client base should be just the opposite of the ¨DOABLEs¨.....They should be serviced to gain...not to simply utilize.....
..........................
And notably in terms of common public press.....GS is one of Bloomberg´s best paying customers....would be interesting to know just how much GS pays Bloomberg every month....
If it were not for you.....much of the truth about GS would not be known to the public.....
Thanks.....RM.....
This firm could care less whether the item is a stock, oil, food.....could care less about price impacts.....
They just need the appearance of legality and DOABLE clients.....
That´s it.....
Just think......I was sitting at a bar several years ago when AAPL was $48.00 a share and in walks Mr. Executive asskiss from my company I was working at. We discussed this, he convinced me it was junk. Eventually I discovered this guy often made idiot decisions, but still has a job there while I don't based on his ability to run his fucking mouth. If I had to do it all over again I would've never learned to use a single tool and instead concentrated on smooth talking and asshole licking. Funny thing is if this US economy implodes at least I know how to do shit.
You'd think some of their clients might have heard the news that the factory has burned down.
...
That's bullish, right? A broken window is good for the economy and all?
Reggie $600 Googleton, back with another know it all I told you so post. Still waiting for you to post your returns over the past two years.
Reggie,
If this is true, then why are law suits not being launched? This borders on the absurd.
They are experts at convincing suckers that they will share if they put some of their skin in the game.
It is a very tight game and blows shit all over everything when the weather turns ugly. Its happened to them before and it will happen again.
AGreed,
But all you need is ONE example with an audit trail and you have the basis for a full investigation.
Lawsuits by Goldman's stupid sheeple investors? LOL!!!
Am sure Goldman is protected by the usual "investments have risk..." disclaimer.
Reggie, GREAT article and thanks!
the purpose of the conviction buy rating is to create demand to allow for sellers to obtain a higher price. this is nothing new for goldie or any of the other players. don't you people get it?
Exactly!
Sad to see some people here @ ZH still do not 'get it' on how Goldman Sachs almost never has a losing trading day during a quarter on their own books while Goldman Sach's clientele/investors lose money.
This is getting clownish.
Can't you find a more socially negative bogeyman to battle day after day besides the evil Mac sellers.
You are wasting your formidable skill set on a Don Quiote wind mill Reggie.
Slamming APPL is not the battle of Normandy.
I was waiting for your fast take on Dexia and I am still waiting patiently.
WB7
Reggies focus has always been investment related, not just rubbernecking the next train wreck, unless there is a way to make money from it!
dude, the post isn't about apple, it's about goldman, but if one has rather concrete thinking they can't see that.
it is about the structure of a financial system that allows too many hats to be worn in one corproate structure and the conflicts of interest within that structure. the lack of check and balances. it is a mirror on the whole financial crisis where goldman sold crap to the public and engaged in fraud. It is about the systemic nature of fraud in goldman, and why Volker wanted to minimize prop desk activity at the big firms. It's about corruption that has been institutionalized.
'Concrete Thinking' I love it. People get caught up on every word duh, who gives a flute about Apple, thats not the story. Neither is apple bashing or loving. The point is Goldman Loved and sold. They lie. That's the point. Worms.
dcb....
Spot on ......good post.....
first time reader? Reggie has a hard on for Apple for some reason, nobody is even arguing that margins will come down with increased competition, but Reggie does not know what Apple can do internally to cut costs on production. I also could care less that GS has sold a big stake. Reggie focuses on market share and margin, not growth, cash flow, net income, etc.
I'm pretty sure I hate Apple more than Reggie and even I admit, this looks like it has gotten personal.
Oh please...I read it all, including...
"Apple stock into Apple loving, Apple can do no wrong, Apple has superior user experience, Apple will never face margin compression, Apple has shiny new products on tap, Google Android phones are cheap, I don’t care if the competition is taking over the world, Apple juice sucking, Goldman Conviction Buy List client purchases. Diehard Apple fans, the Goldman bonus pool (Manhattan Motorcars & the Hamptons local Azimmut dealer) simply luvs y'all!"
What is the shit happening with Dexia, that is what the bandwith is begging for from Reggie this morning. Not more whack the Mac.