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Goldman Shaken By ADP Number, Unstirred, As It Keeps Friday NFP Estimate At +275,000

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Is there just a little trepidation in Jan Hatzius' typing as he reconfirms his +275,000 Friday NFP Target?

Downside Surprise Calls Private-Sector Hiring into Question

BOTTOM LINE: ADP report weaker than expected, showing a decline of 23k in March and raising questions about whether private-sector hiring has truly begun.

KEY NUMBERS:
ADP report says private-sector payrolls -23k in Mar vs median forecast +40k.

MAIN POINTS:
1. The ADP report on private-sector payrolls falls in March, coming in substantially weaker than expected. (The February number was revised down very slightly from -20k to -24k.) Employment at all firm sizes fell in March, with small firms showing a slightly bigger decline (-12k) than medium (-4k) and large companies (-7k). Employment losses were concentrated in goods producing sectors (-51k) and manufacturing (-9k), while employment in services rose (+28k).

2. With little evidence of weather effects in the ADP report, the slightly negative figures reported for February and March call into question the growing presumption that private-sector firms have turned the corner from job shedding to net hiring. Our forecast of +275k for Friday's report on nonfarm payrolls is based on this premise (an underlying increase of 50k, including non-Census government, plus another 100k for a weather rebound and 125k for temporary Census hires). We have not changed this estimate but will keep it under review, as we always do, pending more information on hiring (Conference Board and Monster), claims, and the ISM's mfg employment index.

Look for a late Thursday NFP revision out of Goldman, as tends to happen in contentuous situations.

 

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Wed, 03/31/2010 - 15:57 | 282116 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

But they may already be off!  Spending the bonus!

Happy Easter!

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 16:01 | 282122 10044
10044's picture

Doesn't unemployment benefit pay more than census??

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 16:18 | 282154 Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

Census workers in SanFran make a cool $22/hr

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 16:23 | 282166 e1618978
e1618978's picture

I think that the big benefit would be to workers on "emergency extended unemployment".  It would reset your counter, so you qualfied for another couple years of safety net.

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 16:09 | 282129 poor fella
poor fella's picture

This call will make them more than enough to pay for trolling through all the big-box parking lots and hiring 200k people for an hour.

"Now, if each of you can take a piece of paper from the filing cabinet and place it in the shredder on your way out please, that'll be it for the day. Although, please consider stopping by the blood donation van for a special $2 bonus."

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 16:09 | 282140 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

There is no need to change your mind if you already know the numbers..

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 16:12 | 282146 Hondo
Hondo's picture

He's heard it straight from the BLS and they haven't notified him of a change so he's sticking with it.

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 16:12 | 282147 Hondo
Hondo's picture

He's heard it straight from the BLS and they haven't notified him of a change so he's sticking with it.

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 16:19 | 282159 1fortheroad
1fortheroad's picture

This news popped up on my Briefing.com news. 

Last updated: 31-Mar-10 12:56 ET 

White House says that regardless of outcome of March payrolls report, the US has a lot more work to do for jobs market - Reuters

Apparently the WH already knows the figures and my guess is GS does to.

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 16:39 | 282194 Edmon Plume
Edmon Plume's picture

Excuse my cynicism, but I think the work they have left to do is to pass more bills to prop up state and federal employee unions.

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 16:28 | 282172 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Further signs of the double whammy: small business shedding jobs. Higher input costs aren't helping, nor is the magic deflating consumer. Rough sledding ahead. 

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 16:28 | 282173 non-anon
non-anon's picture

WH talking point: Thing's are going to get better real soon!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jTHNBKjMBU

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7CclVneVpw

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 16:34 | 282185 SDRII
SDRII's picture

he left out the crystal ball and the call from treasury

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 16:41 | 282195 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

NFP should come in above 300K, sending a jolt across global bond markets. Don't worry, the resurrection comes three days later. Happy Easter.

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 17:03 | 282235 nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

Is there a way to put Leo Lunatiks in the ignore list?

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 17:09 | 282249 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Listen up moron, did you bother looking at the household survey in last month's report? Ignore me if you want, but jobs are slowly coming back.

Thu, 04/01/2010 - 09:12 | 282875 BoeingSpaceliner797
BoeingSpaceliner797's picture

Listen up moron, have you looked for a job recently?  Seriously, calling somebody a moron based on them having read or not having read some bullshit government report/statistic is, well, it's the pot calling the kettle black.  The jobs aren't there.  Not in the US.  Not that this will have any impact on the rigged markets other than continuing to melt them up.  Jobs, schmobs, as long as the markets rise, right?  BTW, your Q1 2010 jobs forecast still sucks.

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 17:12 | 282253 ZackAttack
ZackAttack's picture

He's likely to be right, though... They've been talking it down, talking it down from +300K to 200K for the last two weeks.

Don't forget... 100K from the February snow numbers are going to be added back in, at a minimum.

I'd take the over on 300K, maybe up to 350K.

The thing to do is parse out the government anti-jobs from the mix.

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 17:52 | 282340 fuggetaboutit
fuggetaboutit's picture

this discussion is awesome, like debating whether countrywide was gonna make $1.00 or $1.10 in Q2 '07

It does not matter

Look at what is happening in the data - inventories are already restocked, period end of story, thats over. Data from both Milwaukee and Chicago show inventory back above EVERY reading in 2008, and both within spitting distance of 2007 highs.

Low and behold, manufacturing is starting to roll over. We saw it already in the Chicago PMI today, it will spread from here. There isnt a company in the world that needs as much as inventory as they had in 2007, and they all know it.

Which in turn is why regardless of whatever idiotic number is reported friday, there is no sustainable turn in the economy. Companies are not hiring because they are looking at the exact set of facts I just laid out.

So, a year later, consumers rather than actually increasing savings have bled them down thanks to a combination of government induced stupidity buying plus basic survival needs. The stimulus kick has come and gone, and all we have to show for it is a mountain of inventory of crap people neither need nor can afford.

So by all means, lets have a wide ranging and useless debate about whether a number doctored with seasonal nonsense, birth death stupidity, the hiring of people for 12 weeks whose job consists of counting the poeple laying on their couches waiting for unemployment checks (which they will soon use to pay their mortgages, beyond belief) and "weather" which in absolutely no way affected the ADP reading, which is conducted by guys who are literally sitting around counting pay stubs (why on earth would that data be accurate) rather than recognizing that the whole thing is collapsing under its own weight.

But hey who knows maybe Countrywide will print a huge "upside surprise" friday

 

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 22:03 | 282579 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Read every comment on this post and this sums up EVERYTHING.  Well, played, fuggetaboutit, well played.  So well played, in fact, that you posted it twice.  Good on ya, mate!

Thu, 04/01/2010 - 00:01 | 282703 Dirtt
Dirtt's picture

Good on ya mate. Echo. And Echo.

The market will keep going up. Why? Who cares?  It's like those little Russian dolls. You open one and there is another. You open that one and there is another.

Except we have house of cards around a house of cards around a house of cards around a house of cards around a house of cards around.....and it all starts with the guys cooking the books.

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 17:18 | 282272 reflex_121
reflex_121's picture

Why should anyone listen to your prediction Leo?  You have been dead wrong on the job front for months now.  I figured you'd have given this one up by now.

Are you taking Duke at -3 Leo? 

 

 

 

 

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 17:30 | 282292 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Q1 isn't over, and I was wrong two months in a row, much less so last month. I predicted November right, got whacked in the December numbers. Don't give a rat's ass about Duke...lol.

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 22:02 | 282583 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Lulz, reflex_121, if it was Dukopolis, he'd have levered the solars on it.

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 17:08 | 282246 mchandler@ameri...
mchandler@ameritech.net's picture

I was given a hot rumor that laid off brass canon polishers have been privately buying their own brass canons and will be displaying and polishing them in their front yards - directly competing  with government canon polishers and driving the GDP up!

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 18:49 | 282431 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

+1 FUNNY! HA! HA HAR!

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 17:29 | 282289 b_thunder
b_thunder's picture

oops.. can't kill the comment

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 17:37 | 282309 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Yes, Yes.  They have all their ducks in a row.  And this is how the dominoes will fall.  1) Health care 2) Census hiring 3) Hollywood Futures Index 4) Jobs Program 5) FACEBOOK goes public.  I will add now that facebook is, if Max Keiser is correct, the mark of the beast.

As you see, it has already begun.

Get those fun "BUCKS" circulating, and lets get this party percolating! 

Just kidding....buy silver.

 

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 17:40 | 282316 InstantWinner
InstantWinner's picture

I'm sure whatever the number, it will be better than expected and the market will zoom higher.

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 17:54 | 282342 fuggetaboutit
fuggetaboutit's picture

this discussion is awesome, like debating whether countrywide was gonna make $1.00 or $1.10 in Q2 '07

It does not matter

Look at what is happening in the data - inventories are already restocked, period end of story, thats over. Data from both Milwaukee and Chicago show inventory back above EVERY reading in 2008, and both within spitting distance of 2007 highs.

Low and behold, manufacturing is starting to roll over. We saw it already in the Chicago PMI today, it will spread from here. There isnt a company in the world that needs as much as inventory as they had in 2007, and they all know it.

Which in turn is why regardless of whatever idiotic number is reported friday, there is no sustainable turn in the economy. Companies are not hiring because they are looking at the exact set of facts I just laid out.

So, a year later, consumers rather than actually increasing savings have bled them down thanks to a combination of government induced stupidity buying plus basic survival needs. The stimulus kick has come and gone, and all we have to show for it is a mountain of inventory of crap people neither need nor can afford.

So by all means, lets have a wide ranging and useless debate about whether a number doctored with seasonal nonsense, birth death stupidity, the hiring of people for 12 weeks whose job consists of counting the poeple laying on their couches waiting for unemployment checks (which they will soon use to pay their mortgages, beyond belief) and "weather" which in absolutely no way affected the ADP reading, which is conducted by guys who are literally sitting around counting pay stubs (why on earth would that data be accurate) rather than recognizing that the whole thing is collapsing under its own weight.

But hey who knows maybe Countrywide will print a huge "upside surprise" friday

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 18:01 | 282359 Wilderman
Wilderman's picture

I will laugh my ass off all the way to the bank if a +350K jobs print produces a 10 - 20 pt selloff on the ES.

Buy the rumor, you know the rest...

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 18:17 | 282383 fuggetaboutit
fuggetaboutit's picture

right because its not like everyone who has been buying stocks since february has been told by every single strategist on wall street that there is a massive jobs number coming friday. its not as though the minute all of them were wrong about february they immediately called their clients in a panic assurign them march would be huuuuuuuuuge hey i was right i just got tripped up by weather, you'll see buy stocks this will turn out great. 

and then immediately when adp number horrible today (btw go back and look at the correlation historically between adp and the revised payrolls, dead spot on each other) its not like the EXACT SAME GUYS who got the ADP number completely wrong immediately dismissed it and reassured the world that its all systems go for friday (so, now they have whiffed the feb payrolls and the march ADP, with the excuse being "dont you worry man friday is gonna be huuuuuuge")

so yeah no it will be a huuuuuuuuuge number on friday which despite other data either stagnating or outright rolling over will tell us all systems are go - and no one except the crowd trafficking this site is expecting that outcome, so the market will be shocked to see it

at least we are the lucky few with all this incredibly important data at our disposible

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 20:05 | 282495 Steaming_Wookie_Doo
Steaming_Wookie_Doo's picture

Cheers. Huuuge numbers, but they come on a Friday holiday, whoop dee doo! The numbers (tho they may be going up) are a lie in order to keep this social veneer up. A few short term, low pay jobs don't make up for anything. The very definition of unemployed keeps getting revised so we don't notice how many people are fucked. Leo must be on some strong ass medicinal weed to believe things are getting better.

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 18:45 | 282424 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Does anyone know when JPM will take down metals ?(market is closed for this NFP report) Will they do it on the following Monday ? Maybe I should go to that hospital in London and ask Andrew Mgwire......

 

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 19:58 | 282487 Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

I am in the mfg. of ice and water barrier for roofs. I hate to say it but tornadoes are good for our business. We have a full warehouse ($2.5M) in product, but just had a $600K sales day on the 30th. I'm hoping things are looking up. I know we are cutting back from 44 hours a week to 40 so we will have to see how things go.  I am trying to get as much OT as I can and stash it away. I've got a little gold and the same dollar amount of silver and I'm hoping the exposure of the JPM scam will allow PM's to find their real price. I'm not saying it should be 5G an ounce or 100 an ounce just stay the f$$k out of it JPM and let it go to what the market deems it should be.

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 20:24 | 282512 fuggetaboutit
fuggetaboutit's picture

you mind me asking, if you just had a sales day that equates to a quarter of your total inventory, why are hours going down not up?

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 22:12 | 282594 Cursive
Cursive's picture

I'm the comptroller for a small robotics group.  Had a supplier call today asking if we would be interested in paying early and receiving a retroactive discount of 2% on all open invoices if we pay by Monday.  So, yeah, let's party like it's 1999....

Wed, 03/31/2010 - 20:31 | 282515 Gimp
Gimp's picture

Expect a slow Q2 while they try and sell all the excess inventory they have produced then Q3-Q4 will be up as they refill the warehouse with more crap we don't need and then Q1 2011 watch out below.

Thu, 04/01/2010 - 00:41 | 282733 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

Here you aren't seeing clearly, have a look into the other end of the telescope....

http://dealbreaker.com/_old/images/entries/lloyd_blankfein_closeup.jpg

Thu, 04/01/2010 - 00:44 | 282737 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

+275K net hiring as businesses turn the corner from firing to hiring? Yea sure. If anyone believes this good luck to you, no ones hiring so go ahead and jump the shark GS, you're probably setting up to short the market about now I'd guess. The only game in the market today is trying to out guessing the other guys exit strategy.

Mon, 04/12/2010 - 04:52 | 296109 mark456
mark456's picture

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