Goldman Slams USD... Again

Tyler Durden's picture

It has been a few weeks since Goldman's FX strategist Tom Stolper made a public appearance. Which is reasonable: after all the EURUSD dipped as low as 1.39 about ten days ago, a level which threatened to stop out Stolper's 1.55 EURUSD target at a loss. Luckily for the GS FX strategist, this is about the time when the G7 decided it was its imperative to once again impair Europe in exchange for sending US stocks higher (i.e., DXY down, RUT up), alas the decision came at a very bad time for the US economy, which was just entering the worst 10 day period of declining growth since last summer. Either way, now that the EURUSD has retraced a massive 630 pips move in the past 10 days, Stolper has once again shown his head, issuing yet another hit piece on the USD. And what a hit piece it is: "...he upcoming balance of payment data will likely show a notable
deterioration in the BBoP. Finally, US policymakers seem to be making
little or no progress on fiscal consolidation with Moody’s now also
warning about the consequences of hitting the debt ceiling in early
. We remain short the USD against the EUR, CNY, MYR, PHP, and now also the NOK." Ok, we get how you feel... But what is the prop desk doing?

Just out Goldman Sachs:

Dollar Drifting Down. It’s been a few choppy weeks for Dollar bears, but our conviction in the underlying trend remains unchanged. A host of reasons led to a temporary recovery in the Dollar and we would have liked to be nimble enough to avoid the roller coaster. At one stage we had briefly given back all previous gains on our long EUR/$ recommendation. But things look much better for Dollar bears again. Our EUR/$ long is now in the black by about 3.7% and we used the recent Dollar bounce to initiate a short USD/NOK Top Trade for 2011. We also revised our forecasts in the latest FX Monthly to show a continued USD down trend, now projecting EUR/$ to trade at 1.55 in 12 months time. The reasons for the Dollar decline remain the same. Structural imbalances and weakness in the US manufacturing sector result in easier monetary policy in the US than elsewhere. Moreover, the same structural problems keep the trade deficit wide and reduce the attractiveness of investments in the US as highlighted by weakness in capital inflows. The upcoming balance of payment data will likely show a notable deterioration in the BBoP. Finally, US policymakers seem to be making little or no progress on fiscal consolidation with Moody’s now also warning about the consequences of hitting the debt ceiling in early August. We remain short the USD against the EUR, CNY, MYR, PHP, and now also the NOK.

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Caviar Emptor's picture

Slumping into the long, hot summer.

Sometimes, you just can't catch a break. 

Everything smelled like roses just a couple of months ago. Now everything smells like garbage.

SparkyvonBellagio's picture

GS has been very USA negative recently, because they know they U.S. GOVT is going to give up protecting them.


They're going down I feel.

Quicker than a Client #9 ho.

slow_roast's picture

Good point.  The frightening thing is that Goldman has more power and ability to influence the Fed and economic outlook than any government institution.

Arius's picture

yep - be afraid of a cornered rat...

SparkyvonBellagio's picture

I hope a rat gnaws bankinfines knee caps off.

Then tried and true Americans pour salt and sulphur in it's wounds.


rocker's picture

+10   That a new one, 'bankinfines'.  That's so fukn funny.  LMAO

trav7777's picture

the USG is also such a rat, and it is far larger and hungrier than GS

Sometimes the confettiers don't win

NumberNone's picture

GS Loses (wink-wink) $1.3 Billion of Libya's Sovereign Wealth Fund...sure they did.  Who had the other side of the bets?  Any guesses anyone?

Amazing that GS loses a billion of Libya's money, gets threatened by Libya, GS makes promises to make Libya whole, but before the deal can be completed war breaks out with Libya...suddenly it's "Fuck You Libya, come get your money".

Tie this bullshit to Blair-Rothschilds friendship, et al... suddenly Gaddafi looks like a marked man that pissed off the wrong money people.  Time to collect.


BigDuke6's picture

Yes.  The whole grubby story is here - goldman giving backhanders to despot family members.

They are bad people.

slow_roast's picture

Soon traders will receive account credits for opening ES positions.  CME

PaperBear's picture

Is this transitory too ?

lizzy36's picture

Rumor has it that Goldman was size buyer this morning around Euro 1.4480 level.

Odd that they would come out with this note this afternoon.............

dracos_ghost's picture

Probably have inside info regarding the Greeks acceptance of EU/IMF terms over the weekend.

trav7777's picture

amazing is how ECB's QE seems to be euro-positive.  Perhaps there is something lurking beneath the bushes on this

AldoHux_IV's picture

Ok we get how you feel... but what is the prop desk doing?

Dig it.


carbonmutant's picture

Are they buying...?

Alcoholic Native American's picture

Where exactly is the GS headquarters?


edit: N/M, it's in new york.

Franken_Stein's picture


200 West Street, downtown Manhattan, New York, New York, USA


World Financial Center / World Trade Center (Ground Zero)


Alcoholic Native American's picture

Yea, I just looked it up, I was thinking it was in Tel Aviv for some reason.

Shell Game's picture

On the south shore of the river Styx.

Bob's picture

Pure feeling, and nothing but.  Too much money sloshing around in a too criminal enterprise . . . we shouldn't even be having this discussion. 

PaperBear's picture

GS execs going to trial for the CDS fraud in a Greek court and in a court in the USA.

If any execs get convicted in both Greece and the USA then I am all for chopping them in half so they can go to jail twice.

Franken_Stein's picture




But cover the lower half, otherwise it'll rain in.


GeneMarchbanks's picture

When Moody's is warning you... ... that's bad. Those guys are real 'tards.

We're going into the 60's on the DXY before summer end. I dislike making predictions but this one seems a good bet. We'll see...


SheepDog-One's picture

OK so USD guaranteed to pop straight up and Euro and all others down. Well for some 48 hour period anyway before it all flip flops the other way.

TruthInSunshine's picture

Everything is breaking down.

None of the old tricks work anymore. We're seeing dollar down, equity market down, commodity market down days.

At some point, the realization as to how truly awful and in what utter shambles the structural and organic economy is in will dawn on even the most loyal of the Main Stream Media watching/listening sheeple, and there won't be any tricks or ability to deceive any longer left on the table. Some will refer to this as some sort of great awakening, in retrospect.

Are we there or on the cusp of being there now? I don't know, but based on my personal interaction with the world, I'd have to declare that, yes, we are indeed at least on the very edge of the cusp, and it's going to accelerate rapidly if I'm correct in that some of the most naive are beginning to see a portion of the ugly reality that government, media and Wall Street/Banking sock puppets have been doing their best to conceal.

Any actual green economic shoots withered a long, long time ago, and now even the propagandist slogan of 'green shoots' has withered.

The real question that should be on the minds of the enlightened is not whether there will or will not be additional monetary policy by Bernankincide similar in form or size to past iterations (whether it's called QEx or TWy), but rather, whether any such further monetary policy are likely to create similar results as in the past.


Alcoholic Native American's picture

Never underestimate propaganda lol. I'm sure they will pull something out of their hat.  Just the other week they said they killed Osama Bin Laden and everybody bought it.  You know technically, we are not even in a recession.

trav7777's picture opposed to losses of greater than that MONTHLY in men, materiel, fuel, and related equipment in these wars we run?

FY11 has these two at budgeted cost of $170B

alien-IQ's picture

that should pretty make a E/U closing nose dive a near certainty.

Josh Randall's picture

2 reasons: Payback for the suponea; and help threaten the debt ceiling resistors

The squid can rot -- it will one day, because as soon as their clients are sucked dry, they will be dead themselves, thats the thing with parasites in a small aquarium, they will end their own life eventually with their last host

Bob's picture

last i knew, all of humanity was hosting gs.  did i miss an update?

Cheesy Bastard's picture

Goldman has never decieved anyone, ever.   Very possibly the opposite will happen; equity weakness and dollar strength on a weak euro.

buzzsaw99's picture

such a nice bank holding company.

Step 1) Secure gubbermint guarantees.

Step 2) Bite the hand that feeds.

it's a man baby!


Caviar Emptor's picture

So where are we now? 

Full blown deflation in the housing and jobs market (aka Main Street) in the midst of a Fed-distorted stock and bond market and incipient inflationary pressures hurting margins and consumers. S&P earnings estimates already on the decline. ECRI weekly leading index down 6 in a row. 

Not even the vaguest suggestion from "our leaders" that we should do anything differently. In fact, they want more of the same: upper income tax breaks (boy that sure worked) and cuts in benefits that disproportionately impact the middle class (can't catch a break). And let the Fed keep working it's magic. 

The outcome is certain. 

connda's picture

Thanks Goldman -- Buy USD.

suckerfishzilla's picture

This will hurt most the people who aren't paying any attention to that boring subject of economics finance what have you.  Don't get me wrong in my eyes I find this just a new despicable maneuver on the part of Goldman. The Bankers think that they are going to take everybody down with them.   They really live an a world of opulent illusion.  I can't wait to see the videos of how the public will deal with them in the end. 

Alcoholic Native American's picture

Yea, right, our cream of the crop west point retards were chanting USA USA USA as they faked killing Osama the other day, the general public is even less likely to put blame where blame is due.  Bet on it.

trav7777's picture

you want another Holocaust?

suckerfishzilla's picture

What I want seems to be insurmountable.  End the nuke industry end the fed irs cia.  End hemp and pot prohibition.  I've been watching this crap for more than half a century.  It is getting worn out.

suckerfishzilla's picture

What kind of question is that?  We all are capable of reason here except for the paid trolls.  There is a criminal cartel controlling money and finance in the USA.  Watching them get the Mussolini treatment would be worth the wait.  A holocaust would mean punishing a segment of the public in a social witch hunt?  Are you serious?

user2011's picture

GS has been accused of manipulating the oil market.   With Obama trying to suppress the oil price.  GS raised their target on oil.   Now, they are being subpenoed for another case.   And GS continue to show their attitude by downgrading the USD.    I think it tries to sink Obama meanwhile try to gouge profit on the oil market.     With inventory up and economy down around the globe, the only way to push the oil prices are war in middle east and weak dollar.  

I doubt GS can start a war in OPEC countries just like that, so they choose to downgrade USD.



drshock18's picture

OR they're just pulling the old Goldman bait and switch right before QE 2 ends.

Silver Bug's picture

I've learned long ago not to believe anything these crooks say. Obviously the USD is heading lower long term.

Zing's picture

No way we breach the recent lows on the DXY.  There has to be massive strengthening before they can begin QE3.  Everyone trading end of the dollar is about to lose a lot of money.