Goldman Tells Clients To Ignore "Controversial" Bad News, Sees 1.6% (Precisely) Recession Chance

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Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:07 | 456451 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

Now this is the contrarion indicator,  this means sell and get out fast to all their buddies.  GTFO of the market fast.

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:08 | 456459 Cursive
Cursive's picture

+1

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:10 | 456466 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

AKA, "Don't panic."

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 11:03 | 456595 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Again, if Goldman says "buy" they are actually selling.

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:39 | 456555 ATG
ATG's picture

Yesterday goombahs had their fun trashing Doug Kass for his low of the year is past comments; today the vampire squid.

We'll see who has the last laugh and profits as usual...

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38112449 20:01

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:08 | 456461 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Overclocked Mac?  These guys are strange.

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:09 | 456462 Popo
Popo's picture

Further proof that the system will collapse because it must collapse.

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:30 | 456532 Scooby Dooby Doo
Scooby Dooby Doo's picture

Or:

Dear Mr. Obama,
Comply with all things israeli or our financial engineers at Goldman NutSac will create the Greatest Depression of all times for you.

Warm regards,
Lord Blankenstein

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:10 | 456468 ACjourneyman
ACjourneyman's picture

I would like to see a double dip recession and market crash just to get rid of this POS quasi bank, which adds absolutely no value to humanity in any shape or form.

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:26 | 456514 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

Come on, it adds LOADS of negative value......that's something, right?

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 11:39 | 456660 Mactheknife
Mactheknife's picture

>the model shows essentially zero probability that the economy is currently in recession.

Haven't we seen this model before somewhere? "These subprime CDOs are bulletproof, triple A." Yea, that's the ticket.

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 13:15 | 456803 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Exactly Steve, without Sauron who needs Gandalf? Er, where is Gandalf these days anyway?

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:15 | 456469 dead hobo
dead hobo's picture

No double dip ... a possibility.

Squalid, emaciated, anorexic, lohanesque growth on the good days ... the top end optimistic view.

I'm an optimist.

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:44 | 456561 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

"lohanesque"

Well done sir. 

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:12 | 456470 Assetman
Assetman's picture

You know the old saying: If you can dazzle 'em with brilliance, baffle them with bullshifts.

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:12 | 456473 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

Well whatever they said, it's working. The DJI shot up like a rocket the past few minutes.

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:13 | 456474 economessed
economessed's picture

There is no accountability for anything Goldman has to say or do -- anything goes.  If Andrew Tilton is dead wrong about everything he has said, he will still receive a bonus equal to the unemployment checks of 1,730 laid-off manufacturing employees.

 

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:19 | 456489 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0i6vmmPJhs

check out the lyrics in the authors summary section: prescient.

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:15 | 456477 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Conversation between Goldman and CNBC:

You keep'em dumb, while we rob the blind!

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:15 | 456479 dantes1807
dantes1807's picture

Ha. I was reading that Goldman raised its estimates on Catepillar too. Even though all the economic data shows further weakness. Even worse, CAT is highly leveraged so if there is a credit problem they will be in a world of hurt.

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:17 | 456483 VK
VK's picture

ROFL!! What a different world it will be a year from now when the Squid is bankrupt and dismantled and 33 Liberty is foreclosed upon :)

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:19 | 456486 Muir
Muir's picture

_

 

Well let's be fair here.

 

_

"Our subjective assessment of recession probability leans to the high side of the model results."

" Substituting these variables in our original model (with the yield curve) gives a recession probability of 6.1%.  So far, not so bad, but if we combine the yield curve adjustment and the employment-related adjustments, the model generates a 23.9% probability that the US economy will be in recession in six months’ time.  In other words, it suggests recession is not a base case, but is clearly more than just a tail risk."

 

True, it is buried a little further down and is a little couched in subdued terms and, ah, fuck it....

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:30 | 456528 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

LOL

A wonderful example of an outcome based analyst working the CPU magic. Propaganda is another word to describe this type of "report".

"Let's see, since I want this outcome, what can we tweak where and by how much to get what we want."

I do my taxes this way. How much do I want to pay the IRS this year? $4,394.23!

OK, let's get to work. :>)

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 11:42 | 456665 AR
AR's picture


Hey CD & Cheeky  /  Hope you guys are well.  I thought I'd surface and tell a little story that occurred recently.  A few weeks ago, my wife and I traveled to the northeast, and were invited, to attend a weekend get together at a top Ivy League University (it was an alumni fund raiser disguised as an high-end investment seminar). Anyway, to attract big money players (donors), they invited 40-50 of the country's top money managers. Attending were some industry heavy hitters whose names are readily identifiable.  There were 8 panelists who gave speeches. Audience participants (other money managers) were encouraged to provide input and commentary.

Not to disparage our industry, but truly, 90% of those who attended were nothing more than "small-minded, industry indoctrinated, SHEEP" bottom fishing for fees and more investment dollars to manage.  Every single one of these guys stood up and "parroted" the preceding moron who kept talking about traditional metrics like low PE ratios, debt ratios, forward looking earnings, and the like.  After 2 hours of this moronic, parroted bullshit, my wife (a simple minded, blunt and perceptive woman) leaned over to me and whispered "...my God, is there no one in this room who is an independent, creative thinker…?"  Of which I quickly answered:  NO.

MORAL:  Zero Hedge does a great job at exposing the bullshit in our business. But, after 30+ years in the business, we are constantly stunned at the idiotic, self-serving retroact that is spewed from the so-called “investing elite” in our industry.  90% of ALL these money managers are well educated morons and robots, specially TRAINED to SELL.  And sell they do.  In our observation, they have scant disregard toward their investors or the money they manage. And, they have little independent, creative thought and analysis toward markets. Instead, they do what Andrew Tilton from Goldman does – they spew and spit out bullshit to the public, and worse, to their investors.  If there is a lesson from this, it is to approach the business using your OWN MIND, with a healthy skepticism toward everyone and everything you read. Guys like Andrew Tilton are a dime a dozen. And yes, in our opinion – they are IDIOTS.  Good luck everyone.

 

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 12:03 | 456699 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

AR

Thanks for an update from the trenches. I talk about this often, most recently in my "Insane Asylum" series. The "experts" are certified sane by the queen bee and the profit lay within the group think meme.

For those old enough to remember the follow phrase "No one was ever fired for hiring IBM." When you stick with the consensus, even when the shit hits the fan, you can always say "We never say it coming" and be absolutely correct and part of the majority. Who says the insane reside within the walls if the insane asylum?

http://www.scribd.com/doc/33507389/Welcome-to-the-Insane-Asylum-Our-Collective-Psychosis

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:19 | 456488 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

The Ts say 12.xx%. Now, who would i rather believe; the largest market in the World or 1 guy from GS and his "models" [fuck yo monte carlo nigga].

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:22 | 456496 Muir
Muir's picture

The Ts of course.

But his buried 23.9% also sounds good.

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 16:46 | 457243 velobabe
velobabe's picture

sorry :ø(         velo kick to deu

hey, thanks again for your public P U T   D O W N.

bounced back, found my cycling forum heaven.

over 75 hits to my picture album in 48hrs.

H I T†

Originally Posted by velobabee: FIFA World Cup 2010

reply: Your lucky this thread hasn't as many readers as the others do. You might want to hold back on some of that info in future with the guys running around here. What you wrote will get some people hot under the collar.

Fri, 07/09/2010 - 17:32 | 457325 velobabe
velobabe's picture

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:21 | 456493 eckart
eckart's picture

Another weak close today and its 875 in jig time baby!

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:25 | 456510 cainhoy
cainhoy's picture

you fools! that was really a coded message to thurston howell III to get the hell out of dodge before all hell breaks loose.

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:46 | 456563 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

Lovey gave me the heads up on the coconut phone

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:25 | 456511 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

Actually the program spit out the result "42", but the geniuses at Goldman were able to interpret that.

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:32 | 456540 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

About 2 or 3 times a year I pop the DVD into the player and have some fun watching the best example of our insanity recorded on film ever.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hitchhiker's_Guide_to_the_Galaxy

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 11:18 | 456620 Assetman
Assetman's picture

I'm glad I'm not the only one who gets a kick out of watching "Hitchhikers" every now and then.

As for as the economy is concerned, I think Marvin sums it up best: "I can tell you what it means... but you won't like it."

 

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:27 | 456516 surferexx
surferexx's picture

ignoring key variables when producing mathematical models, brilliant.  I would love to see this guy teach algebra, "so children, here is the equation of a line, but in this instance we are going to ignore slope".  Good luck on your test!

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:28 | 456520 Coldcall
Coldcall's picture

Models? Whenever i hear folks using "models" to pretend they can predict complex non-linear chaotic systems like the economy or markets, i know i am listening to bullshit. End of.

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:34 | 456544 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

It's like predicting my wife's moodswings. If apple would ever make a app. to make a model to predict those, I wouldn't even bother to check the price of it.

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:28 | 456522 ATTILA THE WIMP
ATTILA THE WIMP's picture

Andrew Tilton: Member of Council on Foreign Relations

http://witewillo.homestead.com/2005_CFR_Membership_Roster3.htm

 

 

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:43 | 456559 Kina
Kina's picture

I never realised things were so bad. A GS 1.6% probability translates to 98.4% when the truth filter is applied.

 

GS are about as despicable and trustworthy as a pedophile in a kindergarten.

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:48 | 456569 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

You want idiosyncratic factors to throw into your models?

Just wait until November.

 

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 10:51 | 456574 dirtiersanchez
dirtiersanchez's picture

Zerohedge obviously has an enormous neg bias. However we all should remember...we could get our faces ripped off when such a bias so linear.  Remember kids.....when it all looks so so bad...and the pundits are uniformly sliding into one camp...take the other side....albiet for a trade or otherwise......for there is nothing prettier then watching a market climb a wall of worry. We have seen just that in the last two days.  The neg news will mean less and less over the coming weeks...1040 will be a pretty floor again. Heed.

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 11:09 | 456605 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

No, I believe the 1040 will not hold even today.  This is a test to break it for now, and it definitely will not hold if we continue to get negative news on the economic front. 

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 11:21 | 456630 onecrazytexican
onecrazytexican's picture

Great theory and I would agree if everyone actually were sliding into one camp, but the indicators I use to determine sentiment suggest that isn't the case, regardless of what the cliche of the moment is.

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 11:06 | 456599 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Now the downward pressure on the SPX will kick into gear.

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 11:16 | 456615 WALLSTREETPRO
WALLSTREETPRO's picture

This is what I see from GS - passed along by a friend ...

- - - - 


 

1. Friday’s jobs numbers were disturbing.  At best, they show an economy that is growing only quickly enough to keep the unemployment rate flat near 10%.  At worst, they suggest that the labor market is once again turning down.  Both the manufacturing workweek (the only part of the employment report included in the index of leading indicators) and the employment/population ratio (the broadest job market measure in the household survey) dropped significantly in June.  Given the noise in these series and—in the case of the workweek—the potential for substantial revisions, both fortunately fall short of a clear-cut signal that another labor market downturn has begun.  But we will need to see at least a partial reversal of these declines next month.

 

2. This comes at a time when the end of the inventory cycle has triggered the inevitable slowdown in the manufacturing sector.  With inventory investment now again close to a normal rate, GDP growth is likely to converge to final demand growth, which has averaged only 1½% since mid-2009 and is unlikely to accelerate given the various headwinds facing the economy.  The resulting slowdown in GDP growth is likely to be concentrated in the goods-producing sector, which previously received the largest boost from the inventory cycle.  Hence, further declines in the ISM index following last Thursday’s drop to 56.2 are likely; our GDP forecast implies a decline to around 50 by early 2011.

 

3. The weak labor market implies not only a great deal of hardship for workers, but also a growing risk of deflation.  Although the last couple of core CPI/PCE releases were a bit higher than those earlier in 2010, the trend still seems to be downward and other measures such as wage growth and inflation expectations have been declining.  In particular, the 5-year 5-year forward breakeven inflation rate in the TIPS market has fallen 75bp since April and now stands at 2% for on-the-run securities, the lowest level since mid-2009.

 

4. Our recently released Global Economics Paper No. 200 entitled “No Rush for the Exit” argues that policymakers should react to the combination of a sluggish recovery and declining inflation with additional policy easing, either via a return to unconventional monetary policy or via further fiscal stimulus.  The obvious counterargument is that monetary and fiscal easing carries long-term costs in the form of, respectively, a risk of a renewed asset bubble and a higher public debt burden.  But our study shows that these costs look far from prohibitive at present.  On the monetary side, US financial markets are nowhere close to bubble territory.  On the fiscal side, it is difficult to argue that the US government has reached the limits of its debt capacity when long-term bond yields are low and falling, and when federal interest payments stand at just 1½% of GDP.  When compared with the risk of a renewed economic downturn and/or a descent into deflation, the cost of additional stimulus seems to be well worth paying.

 

5. So what is to be done?  On the monetary side, the possibilities include additional purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, as well as TALF-like structures—i.e., special purpose vehicles that lend to nonbanks using equity provided by the Treasury and debt provided by the Fed.  Whether these will happen anytime soon is another matter.  Additional purchases of Treasuries and/or MBS mortgages do not yet seem to command a sufficient majority on the FOMC.  This might change if growth and/or inflation ease further.  But even then it is unclear just how effective they would be.  After all, Treasury purchases did not seem to have much impact in 2009, and MBS spreads are already quite compressed, limiting the potential for further narrowing.  A TALF-like structure could be more powerful, but it would need the Treasury’s cooperation and the Fed’s authorization under article 13.3 of the Federal Reserve Act, i.e. the Fed would need to invoke “unusual and exigent circumstances.”  This is a very high hurdle.

 

6. On the fiscal side, we hope that Congress passes the extension of emergency unemployment insurance, continued aid to state and local governments, and at least a temporary extension of the bulk of the 2001/2003 tax cuts beyond the end of 2010.  If some of the tax cuts are left to expire, then this should be offset by temporary fiscal easing elsewhere.  The point is that a tightening of the overall fiscal stance at a time when the economy is already struggling to maintain the current, unacceptably low level of resource utilization is a bad idea.  In fact, we favor additional deficit-financed stimulus, coupled with a commitment to cut the longer-term deficit more aggressively than currently envisaged in the administration’s 10-year plan.  The consolidation could include cuts in discretionary expenditures, slower growth in entitlement spending, and gradual hikes in both direct and indirect taxes.  The precise mix is a matter of political preferences, and reasonable people can disagree about the pros and cons of different measures.  But the need for long-term budget restraint should not stand in the way of a near-term boost when the economy clearly needs it.

 

7. A failure to enact additional stimulus—at a minimum, extended unemployment benefits, state fiscal assistance, and extension of the bulk of the 2001/2003 tax cuts—would imply a downside risk to our GDP and employment forecasts, specifically for 2011.  Right now, we are showing a gradual reacceleration to 3% on a Q4/Q4 basis in 2011, but we worry that this might end up being too optimistic.  We will evaluate developments both on the policy front and in the US economic data closely over the next few weeks to see whether any adjustments are warranted.

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 11:18 | 456621 dirtiersanchez
dirtiersanchez's picture

No sir. This rally has legs...and follow through...check your markets...gonna rip all day..bias is up....will be self fulfilling over the next few days. The stress test news is monstrous and certainly a catalyst for risk to be put on.

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 11:30 | 456648 onecrazytexican
onecrazytexican's picture

Thank you for your comment. As typically happens when I make bold predictions, you've caused the market to reverse.  I, for one, appreciate your contribution.

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 11:48 | 456678 walküre
walküre's picture

Sir, gravity is pulling the markets back to Earth. Whether you, Goldman, any xyz financial "wizard" or whoever makes the boldest predictions.. the laws of gravity will apply.

Wed, 07/07/2010 - 11:19 | 456625 dcb
dcb's picture

if we grow at zero percent we aren't in a recession. that doesn't mean stocks aren't over priced here.

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