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Goldman Trading Desk Sees Surge In Gold Prices Into Year End
While Goldman's traditional, client-facing sell-side research is terminally useless and empirical evidence suggests that doing the opposite of what is recommended yields profitable results more than two thirds of the time, what its trading desk releases to select clients is far more targeted, nuanced, and, in one word, correct. Which is why we were surprised to hear what Goldman's traders had to say about gold. To wit: "We are hearing anecdotes of strong physical demand already coming through in the last few days. Official sector buying is also likely to feature...Although having been rather wrong footed by this recent setback I
continue to believe that gold will have a strong end of summer into q4
and that current price moves are creating another great buying
opportunity." And unlike the reverse psychology in the research department, the sales guys are much more careful as they have named accounts they get make commission revenue from. Piss these off one too many times and you are cut off. Which makes us believe that Goldman is really long and strong here.
From GS Trading:
Last week gold made an attempt to break above technical resistance of 1550. The momentum failed at 1558 and was followed by a severe correction into the end of the week losing over 60 usd in price. Yesterday we slipped below 1500 to 1491 which I felt certain would not happen as I mentioned in the previous commentary. Correlations with the eur are high and another broad de-risking across commodities amongst a highly unstable macro environment gathered gold in it's wake. This morning we trade 1508.
From the franchise flow perspective, we saw sizeable liquidations from the levered community many of which had been building positions ahead of the break (including myself). It's almost certain that CFTC data for the week that ended yesterday and released on Friday will show a sizeable drop in spec length although not yet taking us to the lower ranges. Most recent spec positions were 29m oz. I think it could be at least 3m oz lower. Anything below 20m is considered a much cleaner backdrop. Last summer we also saw painful liquidations in gold as comex length dropped from 30m to 21m oz with prices dropping 100 usd to 1160. This was quickly absorbed by the physical and central bank players which set the stage for the huge rally in September and October before ending the year at 1430.
From a technical perspective the thin summer markets could allow for further weakness to test last months support around 1465-70 but I am sure that the physical markets will be absorbing well ahead of these levels. We are hearing anecdotes of strong physical demand already coming through in the last few days. Official sector buying is also likely to feature. A recent survey of central banks suggested that gold purchases would continue to be an important part of their future activity.
Although having been rather wrong footed by this recent setback I continue to believe that gold will have a strong end of summer into q4 and that current price moves are creating another great buying opportunity. A significant break of 1460 will probably usher in a new era and author of GS trader commentaries.....
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Long, strong, and not wrong.
At what point will being contrarian to Goldman become mainstream enough that the Goldman's analysts will have to give correct advice in order to get the sheep to do the opposite? We may be getting close to that point.
+1
too funny...
Just put the gold shorts in on the news..
take a ride on the Dizzy.... DZZ, that is.
I disagree,
First we gonna see the 1.300-1.350 USD
Long Term Still bullish, but tactically (1-3 months) is a trap cos EURUSD has to drop hardly and all commodities are overvalued .
Well, equities and bonds and currencies are all overvalued too.
Money must be somewhere¡, (specially with Mutual Funds Mandates where force them to invest yes or yes 30% in their investment policy ) Mixed Strategy Mutual Fund.
Institutional are too benchmarked...and not focused on Total Return Strategies...thats the key to see a Real Sell off in Equities,...Force all those Mutual Funds to be underweighted in Equities and Long Cash and or Forex Trades.
Thats the key, to identify flows(inflows-outflows) across asset classes.
The illusion of money is somewhere.
"The illusion of money is somewhere."
Brilliantly stated. +1
Ha ha ha He he ha....
SheepDog's comment is extra brilliant!
+ $1505
We get Cash4Gold, China get Gold for Cash...
http://dont-tread-on.me/we-get-cash4gold-china-gets-gold-for-cash/
Just curious: how does the EURUSD maintain any meaning when the IMF is hell-bent on blending them together? Is Christine the crepe-maker going to funnel only "weak" USD through to the PIIGS?
I think gold is increasingly going to ignore FX and take on more and more of its own "sovereign" character...
It shows the real game being played here which everyone misses, they are setting up for a ONE world currency. Sure its a disaster already, but that wont stop the lunatics.
As long as the one world currency is bitcoin, I'm fine with that.
Bingo!
Sooner or later Gold and Silver will decouple from the insanity and lead the way to dry land. Considering CBs have become net buyers, people "know" QE whatever is around the corner, the Crimex is suddenly cleaning up all the "real" Gold and Silver etc etc it makes sense for Gold to make another substantial leg higher.
It's not a matter of if, but of when. And the miners might just lead the way this time.
$1300.. bring it.
V
Howsa bout I just send you a postcard with a picture on it.
Pony up or go home.
yikes bra..
Hell yes, and the eurousd to parity please. Oh and how about $2 gas for my third wish... :-)
I don't understand why any central bank would trade valuable fiat for some barbarous relic.
haha +1
+21214
Cant eat it. But you can eat with it, just look at Flava Flav's grill.
Sell.
Nice avatar! Looks like R Friekorps resting comfortably after a good day of sniping.
buying at or near the top is always a winning trade.
especially when bernanke is shutting down the printers at 10AM today.
If you believe that the printers are REALLY shutting down, me thinks you might be smoking the hoochee dingus
The printfest has to end at some point, QE is not a perpetual motion machine and maybe those who imagine it just goes on forever and Ben works for them making sure their bubble stocks continue to further levitate past full retard are really the ones smoking the loco weed.
Agreed. Essentially I view printing like smoking - eventually EVERYONE quits.
Take your pick: A collapsed lung or a collapsed currency; past a point, neither one breaths.
It's like a fundamental principle
Which will come to an end first?
a) High Frequency Printing
b) High Frequincy Trading
c) Sheep's High Frequency Posting
Perhaps the question should have been..., which do you prefer end first.
;-)
IEA annouces it is already considering an oil release "extension" in July.
Smells like panic.
http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article264422.ece
Seems like this news has generated nothing more than a giant 'Meh!' from the pits. Looks like crying Wolf too many times reduces the response.
Theyll need to release more oil in July, not for the convenience of the avg American Idiot's access to oil, but early July we'll also be at war in Iran.
I think they're scheduling that one for October.
Those who are playing with gold for a profit are playing with fire. Those who are holding gold as insurance against the ever increasing possibility of a chaotic unravelling will not care about what transpires in the meantime. The time frame will define whether you have succeeded or not. For example, someone who buys and then sells a month later for a 10% profit might feel quite happy. But if in the following month gold explodes upwards and you cannot access your bank account, you will be hitting your head long and hard. So playing with the time frame is also like playing with fire.
'Buying gold for profit' makes no sense at all, its now an armageddon hedge against crumbling fiat currencies, hedge against the Maniacal Monetizers insanity. So anyone buying today and seeing day by day if theyve got a 'profit' yet miss the entire point by a mile.
sure... but if you think that the gold to silver ration might end up at around 20, you could buy silver for profit.
Gold and silver ratio pegged to what, the Fiatsco? Where it really ends is with the currency destroyed, and gold and silver still the worlds only and oldest solid real money.
nono.. i actually mean profit! profit in purchasing power, compared to the purchasing power of gold. Of course, this "profit" only exists if the ratio goes down compared to today. This would just mean that silver is undervalued compared to gold.
It's no "profit" if you convert it back to a face-planting paper currency. Preservation of wealth trumps profit when the latter is measured in "valuable fiat" as was nicely coined earlier.
Buy. Store. Win. (and occasionally polish for a little endorphin surge)
armageddon hedge against crumbling fiat
Put that on a tee-shirt and I think it sells.
Figured you would all love this. From the latest Men's Health I just got in the mail:
Is it too late to buy gold?
Right now gold is going gangbusters at $1500 an ounce - double its 2007 price. Why so high? "People buy gold in times of crisis because its price tends to rise while everything else is moving down," says Lew Altfest, PHD, CFA, an associate professor of finance at Pace University. But even gold eventually loses its luster and hits a price plateau - and it may be nearing that plateau now. So if you want to jump in now, be conservative: Allocate no more than 5 percent of your investment dollars towards shares of an exchange-traded gold fund such as SPDR GLD, says Altfest. Each share represents part of an ounce of bullion, so investors don't have the costs associated with actual gold bars."
Despite what respected Men's Health says, I prefer to have 10% of mine in physical Au (and 2% in other physical PMs).
Hey, but that's just from a Bearing with a hole in the middle where a brain would normally go...
At least my US dollars can be set on fire to provide warmth, or used as toilet paper when none is available.
Try doing that with your gold.
Gold holds warmth better than paper.
As for wiping, its more like scraping. I keep three by the lou and they rinse off real nice and are reusable unlike your paper that might clog up your pipes and can only use once.
After monitoring the comments on this article, I am once again shocked at the fringe views held by many of the “Zero Hedge” readers. Many of the readers appear to be write-wing extremists and/or conspiracy theorists, some of whom openly criticise the entire Federal Reserve System. Readers will often subject respected government officials to the most appalling verbal abuse. Again, I realise that these are a minorty of extreme individuals, but I would still advocate regular montoring and profiling of these hateful comments.
Yep! It's the only way to stop The Bernank and the Midget from steering this ship into the iceberg.
End the Feds!! (Federal Reserve & Fed.gov)
End the European 'Experiment'!! (EU & EUR)
De-fund the IMF!!
I appreciate what you are saying. But we have already hit the iceberg.
The real question now is simple. Who will be saved and who will be 'sacrificed' in order to save those who are at the top of the list. We are down in steerage just in case you were wondering.
We think we have a survival plan, but in fact we have little control over our lives unless we proactively take steps to stop the insanity. Waiting for those at the top of the list to 'save' us is the ultimate act of denial on our part.
I'm not talking about asking the Feds to end the Feds! ... I'm talking about each individual, using whatever connections they have, to get their local representatives to non-violently withdraw from the central planning systems.
Texans should do it ... Arizonans should do it ... Greeks should do it ... Irish should do it......... It would only take about 6 sovereign states to say 'no mas' to start a rush for the exits.
It's never too late to try a 'hail mary' ... so I'm recommending a method that could appeal to the 99.5% of the population of both continents that are unwavering statists. Personally, I'd rather get rid of all governments at all levels, but that is a long way off!
Word, secessionism and decentralization are truly the last hope of western civ.
Alas I think darker days are ahead in the US, though the Congress has a single digit approval rating the vast majority still worship the Empire and all its glory. Who better to "fix" it then the glorious Imperial Executive.
I think the next president, Obama or otherwise, is probably the last.
Obama IS the last. There will be no more POTUS elections. Either we win or they win ... before the end of next year. Of that, I'm now certain.
Out with a whimper huh, too bad.
Oh well, I suppose I can let me freak flag fly....I will counter charges of latent racism with overt racism, should be fun.
+100
At least be original in your trolling rather than cutting and pasting from your identical posting of yesterday. You owe yourself that much.
BTW it is "right wing" not "write-wing".
"Readers will often subject respected government officials to the most appalling verbal abuse."
Southern_Pov clearly shows whose team he is on.
I may still be a slave, but at least I am thinking about how to get out and fighting the fight.
The Southern Poverty law center called ZH opinions extreme?
Your BS isn't going to work.
We all know exactly what YOU and the SPLC are about. YOU are the extreme left and an opposition to the US Constitution and individual liberty. YOU love Obama. You want to take my freedom because you live in fear. But, you will not.
Try the youtube.com crowd... probably more your speed. You'll find plenty "still retarded from my liberal education" 23 year old's who don't understand anything. They never made any money or investments, never paid a $10,000+ tax bill or run a business or been responsible for other people. We get it, here at ZH. (Well, most do.)
Your foolish, unfair and destructive opinions are not welcome in my home. Not to mention that they've been a total failure for America and everywhere they've been implemented.
You been here 1 week and you are already telling us how the site should be run.
Typical liberal. Get lost!
I can just never resist you fucking nazi fucks. Try picking up a dictionary, you so-called America Lover (NOT), and read the definition of 'liberal.' Then explain why you aren't. Our living room is this great country, which has never benefitted from the asinine policies and attitudes of shitheads like yourself. Liberal policies are the reason you get to shoot your stupid mouth off without being jailed. Liberal policies have been responsible for every great leap forward in human rights (wasted on the likes of you). Putting all the tribes and races together in this country is what made it great. You wanna be a Hapsburg, asshole? Be my guest,, and move your stupid ass out of my country - I hear Bulgaria and Moldova are perfect for neoNazi shitfucks like you.
SPLC can bite my ass for what they have done to the Outer Banks, but that doesn't mean we ain't shootin' at dumbfuck Nazis if they get too far across the lawn.
You understand that you are being trolled, right?
Right?
You understand that you are being baited, right?
SPLC has been on ZH for 10 days. And you assume it really is the Southern Poverty Law Center?
Too funny that you are still stuck in the left/right, liberal/conservative mind fuck.
Of course I do. I just like bashing Nazis, Trolls and other assholes. Some people pay for therapy. I can't afford it - too busy buying silver. So hunting dumbfucks, well, its like plugging in a school of hungry bluefish. You're gonna reel a few in. SPLC, whether this be them or not, lost my [liberal] vote a long time ago - I don't really think the rights of ten bird nests ought to determine the welfare, historical provenance and livelihoods of people unless they are truly threatened with extinction. SPLC has gotten way too big for its britches - which is what happens when you allow lawyers to make the rules.
As for lib/con mindsets, well...stuck or not, we all get to Live The Dream every day, here in God-Blessed America.
Personally, I'm a pantheistic worldcitizen who believes that all species have a right to exist, and that trading ingots is better than trading bullets. When the DOT builds us a bridge to another habitable planet, I'll change my views. In the meantime, I like fucking with political hacks, and I sure ain't afraid of dialogue.
Interesting for someone that styles themselves as above the "lib/con" fray, you seem to be firmly entrenched in the paradigm. As to your dictionary advice, therein lies the problem. The language has been perverted to such an extent that while you use the term "liberal" presumably to describe classical liberalism in the enlightenment sense, this definition has been turned upside down by the "thought leaders". When liberal is used as a pejorative, it is in response to the perversion of language by those aiming to exploit useful "liberal" idiots to their own ends. Liberal no longer bares any resemblance to the enlightenment tradition (which I assume to be your mindset), rather it denotes the imperial brand of authoritarian collectivism, imposed on the West over the past half century, that is now in its death throws. "Liberalism" today is nothing more than the Oligarchy's vibrating rabbit, switched on for self gratification.
I would also add that the notion of an American "conservative" was also distorted, employing different means and through a different frame of reference, appealing to a different herd. The fact is that American "conservatism" today is the exact same strain of authoritarian collectivism, with a slightly deeper bow to the Imperial nature of its philosophy than the more communitarian "liberal" dialect.
Alas I am tired of waging this battle in an empire of lies, so I just call myself an anarchist and am left alone.
I take serious offense to your handle Southern Poverty. We dont need nor want you in the south, take your carpet-bagging ass back up to where you came from you vulture.
Southern Poverty Law Center is Soro's funded and Obama's manufactured propaganda and hate generator. fool
SPLC has been around longer than Obama, fool. They give a bad name to Liberals the way folks like you do to the Right.
For at least the past twenty years, the SPLC has acted as an adjunct of the DOJ to criminalize any thought/speech that in any way, undermines the power & legitimacy of the federal government.
It is a truly brilliant scam, question the transgressions of the Empire and you are an extremest, a neo-confederate, racist, a hate monger, etc.
Now that the aura of OKC has waned amongst everyday people and with the legitimacy of the Federal government openly questioned and mocked at every turn, I fear another FBI/SPLC false flag operation is coming soon.
Dear SPLC - What were you doing at Elhoim City? Did you run OKC for the FBI?
as much as i like gold, one thing is certain: there is no physical shortage at this stage!
Agree.....if you have $1500 plus prem.....no shortage.
GM, interesting comments.
1. We trash our leaders because they are not leading. They do not respect the office with which they were elected too. All they care about is getting re-elected. Hard to do that if you make the right decisions for the nation long term. Look what they allowed over the last 10+ years.
2. Doubt if gold goes much below 1460 or so. These corrections have been shorter and less severe this year. I remember corrections well over 10%...125.00 dollars +. And the volatility has declined. Have not had a 40 dollar gold day, up or down in a while. I think more realize what gold is really about.
3. We may be a minority but we are an informed minority who do not believe what we hear on mainstream media, as they rarely report real news in depth.
Protect yourself, and miners may not be the go go investment right now, but are you comfortable buying stocks with PEs of over 80 and follow the crowd. I will pass.
Agreed (particularly with #1).. Here the government wants to raise taxes on "the rich" and small businesses, meanwhile a poll I read yesterday showed 95% of respondents saying to cut spending, as opposed to other methods to fix the budget gap.
Well, if you believe in polls, just remember the famous saying, "Figures don't lie, but liars can figure."
If you're going to cut spending, leave old folks and children's education out of it - add money to it, because uninformed, uneducated fools are taking over the entire body of policy-making institutions - which, as GWB proved, is a bad idea.
You want to cut spending? Cut the Pentagon budget. Lay off the idiotic War on Drugs (pointless, useless, expensive and not working). Cut the entitlement programs of politicians and their staffs, and ask yourself the simple question: "Why wouldn't I want my taxes spent on my kids and old age?" Instead of illegal wars, lobbyists and special-interest Rothschild MF's who don't care who they kill...when is the Conservative Movement going to stop being a bowel movement and realize they've been hijacked by idiots? We need a truly bicameral governing body, if not tri- or quatro or more. What we have now in our government would never pass as work out here - they would all be fired for failure to perform the duties for which they were hired.
And as far as I'm concerned, the rich can pay a little more and get off the back of the working man - more people making more money and having homes to live in is a recipe for a strong economy and stable government. Stop mining the poor - they don't have anything left to steal.
We all need to step back and ask some simple questions, quiz ourselves to see if what we are thinking really makes sense. Read some history so that we don't repeat the worst parts. And root out the "my way-or-the-highway" thing from political discourse. I hate to break it to the more radical fringe, but we liberals own property and pay taxes too...AND we own guns. Go figure.
taxation with representation isn't so hot either...
there's just no pleasing some people.
"root out the "my way-or-the-highway" thing from political discourse"
Isn't my way or the highway the very essence of demoracy? I am the 50% +1, I win, you will do what I say else armed thugs in costumes will shoot you down like a dog.
Lately, GS is a proven bad forecaster. Why don't they keep away from talking about gold? I don't want them to be wrong. But they do have a 'negative midas touch' with their forecasting.
I say that if GS sees a surge in gold, beware! Go the other way and sell Gold.
No problem.....the research desk is still calling it down to $600.
While Gold-Man's "traditional, client-facing sell-side research is terminally useless and empirical evidence suggests that doing the opposite of what is recommended yields profitable results more than two thirds of the time, what its trading desk releases to select clients is far more targeted, nuanced, and, in one word, correct."
Give me a fcking break, another sad attempt to attract even greater fools into this purely speculative con getting everyday people to part with their hard earned savings in exchange for an artificially jacked up asset.
That's why I favor my pretty paper over assets....assets are so overrated.
You really can't do math, can you? (Chauncey G)
what math can't I do?
Newbie poster "Southern Poverty Law Center" call Zero Hedge regulars, "fringe views" which "must be monitored". You've been here 1 week and have the audacity to complain about Zero Hedge?
I'm sitting here with my .45 on my hip, coffee in hand, 2 lab retrievers at my feet. I'm so fortunate to be loved by a fine wife, a loving family and blessed by God.
And nothing you or the SPLC do will change my life. My rights were given to me by God. And no man will take them. Not you, not Obama, no one. Get it, now?
Clue in and get away from the SPLC before your brain and soul are permanently damaged.
I'm amazed the ZH crowd would even discuss the SPLC.
They're ambulance chasers.
Dude, what DO you put in that coffee? Your rights were given to you by the blood our ancestors spilled fighting for them. Your rights are given to you by the US Constitution. Look around the world, and ask yourself how easily those rights get taken away, and then look at the current makeup of our Supreme Court and their most recent decisions.
The Nazis and Fascists are already in your house, mate, and you can't see them for the pablum you eat from your political hacks. Put your gun down and write some letters demanding true representation in exchange for the taxes you pay. That is your duty before God, your country and your family. SPLC has already changed your life. They call ZH fringe (well, lets face it, there are some here), but they are the fringe of the Left. They no more represent the broad Liberal point of view than Glen Beck represents the broad views of the Right.
Your .45 won't help win this battle against The Idiots. Voting and getting involved in the political process will.
==> Your rights are given to you by the US Constitution
Serious, fatal flaw, in your understanding of rights.
Your rights are *protected* by the US Constitution. They are nowhere, nohow, "given" by the US Constitution.
They are, fundamentally, different concepts.
Your Human Rights were given by no one, they are a virtue of being human.
Once you stop begging politicians for rights which are naturally yours, you might actually rise above the fray which you are perpetuating.
The US Constitution was a compact amongst sovereign states, ceding a bit of their sovereignty in exchange for mutual defense and trade. YOU, I, WE are not parties to it and are not bound by it. My Human Rights were acknowledged in this compact but certainly not awarded through it.
Now this compact has been so consistently and thoroughly sodomized over the past 150 years that it is in every sense a dead letter. Those that still yearn to work within the system to "fix" the system (just elect the "right" people), would be greatly empowered by acknowledging this fact, condemning this central government to the dustbin of history and building something new & legitimate before the Nazis really do take over.
I know it's hard to come to terms with but you cannot "get involved" in Federal politics, the Empire doesn't give a flying fuck about you, about the constitution, about liberalism, about humanity, it serves itself alone to its own ends.
If you're paying 10 grand in taxes, especially property taxes, you have a problem, not him
The way I see it is that gold and all commodities and equities will fall in the short term for the fed to start QE3
Let them fall.......................
You will see a tsunami in physical purchasing, and a REAL shortage.If the price drops even a $100.00, the buyers are out in force.
A drop of $200+/-, there will be NONE to be found.
I don't care what level of Hell these Goldman boys are at - this stuff gives me the shits.
Just doing opposite of what Goldman says has been my secret weapon in this markets.
If they would, for some reason, stop giving advice and pointers, i would lose everything i have.
Thank you GS, it's nice to have somebody you can depend on.
I wish I had done the opposite of GS when they IPO'd MCP (by selling a big part of their holdings at $14), MCP (Molycorp) now is about $50.
You see? Can't go wrong with those guys.
So what the fuck happened to gold this morning...???
There wouldn't be Blessed manipulation going on,would there now....
FUCK YOU LITTLE TIMMY
Hmmm.... somebody high up must have read this article, they're knocking gold down as we speak.
London pm Fix...silver too. It's called that for a reason.
so can someone tell me why any CB would feel a need to own gold if the main reason owning it is failed CB policy. It is like a bet against yourself.
No they are betting against other central bankers failing. Its a hedge and it's needed as the fiat currency system becomes more unstable and the race to devaule accelerates. All betting on each others greed. Savers and investors earning nothing right now on a real rate basis.
No they are betting against other central bankers failing. Its a hedge and it's needed as the fiat currency system becomes more unstable and the race to devaule accelerates. All betting on each others greed. Savers and investors earning nothing right now on a real rate basis.
only reason to own gold is if you believe that people hording it will successfully be able to take down the current banking system and replace it with a new global currency backed by the gold they hold, making us all slaves to their new goldbacked currency which we have to borrow from them to pay eachother for real goods and services. the massive amounts of money being spent on gold propaganda is scary for this reason. one step closer to the death of national sovereignty and the hard-fought for individual liberties that it are supposed to be protected by national constitutions. all the while people are none-the-wiser as they willingly hand over what small freedoms we have in the name of honest money which has never existed since the beginning of fractional reserve banking.
Only reason to own Gold, or any PM's, esp Gold, is INSURANCE.
There is no Salvation/Savior forthcoming for fiat...........anyone's.
Before this puppy unwinds, Gold and PM's WILL be the only real wealth left.
precious metals arent insurance against anything unless they become money by fiat, or decree...and only people who would want that would be the people hording precious metals because then they hold all the money. So yes if you're okay with those current holders of gold becoming the new owners of a monopoly on money and credit, then it's insurance. I have a hard time believing that the world's current holders of US dollar reserves will give up that power.
I really don’t give a shit what GS forecasts. To my mind nothing has changed for the better. The trend politically and economically is still down, down, down. The summer months as I can recall have typically been a lull for PM’s for as long as I can remember, so BTFD. PM’s, guns, storage full of a years worth of consumables, and a few escape routes planned is where its at.
two days later Gold down $27 looks like Goldman was selling indeed.