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Goldman: "Virtual Stall In Industrial Production"
When even Jan Hatzius tells you it is time to get out of dodge, you listen.
From Goldman Sachs
Actual: 74.1% mom
Previous: 74.1% mom
Consensus: 74.2%
Released: Thursday, July 15, 2010 at 09:15 (New York time)A Virtual Stall
BOTTOM LINE: Industrial output decelerates to a virtual stall, with manufacturing output down on the month.
US-MAP: Industrial production 0 (2, +1), judgmental adjustment -1 reflecting skewed composition (to utilities and mining).
KEY NUMBERS:
Industrial production +0.1% in June (mom, +8.2% yoy) vs. GS and median forecast -0.1%.
Capacity utilization 74.1% in June vs. GS and median forecast 74.1%.MAIN POINTS:
Growth in overall industrial output ground to a virtual halt in May despite a sharp increase in utility output (+2.7%, month on month) and a modest gain in mining as well (+0.4%). Setbacks were fairly widespread across industries, though tilted toward nondurable manufacturing. The Empire index results for July hint at another stagnant month - more on this when we see the Philadelphia index at 10am.
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Isn't the Baltic index incredibly lovely at predicting these things?
+1 yes .
Gee, I wonder how Leo's self-built bulkshipping ETF is faring today?
DRYS 3.90 -0.15 oops
T, now don't you go calling out Mr. D-Dip.
Well yes, it stalled, but it's not like about to go into a tailspin or anything like, oh, wait, never mind.
It stalled because I stalled it. Gods work will now being on the short side of the trade.
Don't disappoint me Lloyd.
Muir, could you pop in everywhere and post please? Although I appreciate your comments in this instance you do not even need to saying anything worthwhile. A simple piece of punctuation or one letter/number will do.
Best avatar ever. I cannot focus!
They are just now starting to understand that industrial capacity is only running around 45%? This isn't new news, it's was just ignored two years ago when it was at 70%.
The Baltic does indicate how goods are being shipped, only reason it's not zero right now is oil, north american recycling and food are the only things being shipped.
BDI is for dry bulk shipping not oil.
I know, but the only things being shipped right now anywhere is oil, recycling and food. Consumer products are pretty much in the crapper.
Although it wouldn't surprise me if they started to include oil to boost numbers.
I think pulling out of a stall requires remarkably dexterous pilotage (totally missing) and loads of power (running on empty).
Crash of some significant proportion before this month's end.
No doubt!
Definitely before August 15th. Unless you run an HFT station, really is time to quit Dodge(ing) the markets.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
There worst part of a stall is when it's not really apparent because you have no horizon, and your inner ear plays tricks on you and tells you your still flying straight and level. At that point the plane drops a wing and you find yourself in an incipient spin realizing to late what the economy oops sorry the plane has been trying to tell you all along.
So what happens when the stick starts shaking and the throttles are already all the way forward, flaps are fully extended, and the nose is already down?
A round of golf?
That's exactly where I'm heading!! See you at 19th!
More like mach tuck SW.
Physics takes over and things get REALLY interesting!
Down a full percent at 10:40. Pump it, baby!
The solution is to ignore gravity because it does not exist.
http://arxiv.org/abs/1001.0785
Muir, those bouncing "titties" are totally hypnotic.
Screaming "Come to Momma"
I'm not complaining but I think the bouncing may give me an epileptic seizure.
Yes -- totally hypnotic.
+++
The best avatar I have ever seen.
it will be interesting to see this commentary "cached" and the results in 4-5 years vs what is being put out currently. bottom line is that things are improving somewhat and we've come so far and so quickly that there has to be some sluggishness from here. patient now out of intensive care, going to have to hit them with the paddles again at some point but eventually, the patient is walking and in 5 years, running.
I want some o' what you smoking.
Considering some $23 Trillion in loans, gifts and guarantees have been throw at the problem and this is all we get.....is much more troubling.
Trillions of new debt to support faux stimulus which got us a bit north of 1% (final sales, net of inventory builds) GDP growth for a few quarters is not the patient being moved out of intensive care. It is more like very expensive morphine for a terminal patient. The pain subsides temporarily but the underlying conditions remain untreated.
Second funny item of the day.
Still think this market is more technical than anything else....So, we stalled at 1099 on the SPX, the downtrend line...Numbers are ugly and the impulse is to sell...I think those who do are going to feel like suckers in a few weeks....I am super bearish, just not until Labor Day.
Interesting. I think a lot of people are ignoring the summer market, but the data releases for the past 2 weeks are the kind of thing that gets real money thinking of leaving.
Whats your estimate of how high we can go before then?
I believe SPX 1145 is the August target....I expect that Jim Grant is right and the government is going to throw out another big stimulus plan.
From a d.c. perspective, I have to disagree. If the dems can't even get emergency unemployment extended, they don't stand a chance at another 1 trillion in stimulus.
+1
1st QE - FAIL!
Economy - Sliding back toward the abyss.
Further amelioration - tenuous.
I
Smell
War.
Only too true. Remembering that the Keynsians who "taught" me "economics" in the 1960's were convinced that WW2 ended the Depression, would it be too much to think that the current crop might try it? It sure would get our minds off our troubles, and give them another excuse to wrap our nation in the small-pox-infected blanket of Statism.
"give them another excuse to wrap our nation in the small-pox-infected blanket of Statism"
Merl, did you hit your medicaid prescription gap or something? We can pass the hat here at ZH and send you some money for your meds. Be happy to.
No, QE 2.0,already being discussed.Today..............LOL
Hey man, if we're going DOWN, do it with Panache
You smell what the Bernanke has cookin' eh?
"Virtual Stall in Industrial Production"
but more importantly, a "Virtual Hyperaccelleration of Our Bonuses"
And when will the Government acknowledge the recovery has faltered?
Never. Not politically advantageous to the party in power.
Better off calling everyone who disagrees with them a racist instead.
Rally stalled. Yesterday flat. Today downtrend. Tomorrow is Friday.
No volume, no bids. Outflows accelerating. Buckle up Daisy!
I wonder how much of this could be Gulf related?
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