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Goldman Vs Pimco Round 2: Goldman Buying Belly Again As It Doubles Down On Client Call To Short The 5 Year

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Three months ago, Goldman's Francesco Garzarelli released a note to clients advising them to short the 5 Year as follows: "We recommend going short 5-yr US Treasuries at 1.936% for a potential target of 2.30% and a close below 1.80%." Naturally, our cynical outlook on life prompted us to say the following: "As usual, since that would mean Goldman is now accumulating 5 Year inventory, it appears we will soon have a rather dramatic duel between the two biggest Wall Street titans: PIMCO and Goldman, at least as pertains to their outlook on rates." Well, Goldman won so far (its clients not so much). Today, Goldman is telegraphing that it is starting to accumulate the next batch of 5 years, which makes sense considering the point on the curve experienced its 3rd worst 3-day decline ever as reported yesterday. To wit: "Ahead of key data for June, starting with the June ISM report this Friday, we recommend initiating short positions in 5-yr UST at the current level of 1.70%, for an initial target of 2.00%, and stops on a close below 1.40%." Round two of Goldman vs PIMCO is now on.

This is what Goldman said on Marcy 18, and this is what it said last night:

Over the past month, global bonds extended the rally in place since mid-April. In the total returns space, the top performers continued to be the more cyclically-sensitive economies (US, UK, Australia). The Eurozone aggregate portfolio lagged, as the rally in Germany (+0.9 on the month, using the EFFAS index) was more than offset by negative returns in Spain and Italy (-1.6% and -1.1%, respectively).

At least in part, the solid performance of fixed income can be attributed to an ongoing shift in macro factors. In the US, consensus real GDP growth over the next 12-months is now 2.8%, or 40bp lower than in February, prompting investors to push back the time of policy rate normalization. By contrast, the outlook for activity has been upgraded in Euroland. One-year projections of CPI inflation is much higher than at the start of the year, but are no longer increasing. Based on the current array of macro expectations, our measure of ‘fair value’ for 10-yr government bond yields in the main markets that we track has fallen by around 10bp in June (see page 7).

With regards to the market’s direction from here, we note the following.

  • In spite of the marginal decline in ‘equilibrium’ intermediate yields, bond valuations remain unattractive. The US and Canada stand out in particular, trading close to one standard deviation too expensive, according to our Bond Sudoku model. Barring a more substantial downward revision to the macro outlook, which we do not see as imminent given the much more conservative activity forecast levels we have now reached, we remain of the view that US 10-yr yields will not be able to hold much below current levels.
  • Regarding the macro outlook, the pace of economic recovery is admittedly lackluster. But expectations have now adjusted lower, and we may see some bounce in industrial indicators as supply-side disruptions stemming from the Japan earthquake fade. Evidence of this has already begun to transpire. Headline inflation is stabilizing because of favorable 'base effects' in the food and energy components, but ‘core’ inflation remains on an upward trajectory in most advanced economies.
  • The ongoing European sovereign crisis has kept the allocation to government bonds heavily skewed to the highly rated countries. As discussed below, a gradual resolution of tensions surrounding Greece should lead to a broader distribution of risk, to the benefit of the larger, more liquid sovereigns of the Euro area.

Based on these considerations, we maintain our view that intermediate maturity yields will be around 50bp higher in the second half of the year, and some 30bp above the forwards. Our forecast total returns in 2H11 are -5% for US Treasuries and -3% for German Bunds. The combination of greater inflation pressures, and lower trend growth rate should translate into less convex yield curves between 2- and 10-yr maturities (with the 3- to 5-yr sector underperforming) and flatter term structures thereafter.

Ahead of key data for June, starting with the June ISM report this Friday, we recommend initiating short positions in 5-yr UST at the current level of 1.70%, for an initial target of 2.00%, and stops on a close below 1.40%.

 


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Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:22 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

hey, tyler, whats the deal with all of these wall street cuts? i thought the quants were making hand over fist again?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-30/bofa-goldman-among-banks-bracing-for-job-cuts-as-trading-slows.html

 

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:27 | Link to Comment Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Quants only trade where the vol is. Nobody has been trading equities for months (which means volume will get less and less as HFT strats become unpractical, especially if rebates are adjusted and that shuts the door for risk free parasitic HFT churning). Everyone is in FX and commodities.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:42 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

thanks.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:42 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Nobody has been trading equities for months? WHAT? According to RoboTrader thats all anyone is doing, piling into spandex and boutique coffee stocks...somethings wrong here.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:28 | Link to Comment sabra1
sabra1's picture

OT:

Assailant Grabs French Leader Sarkozy in Crowd

A man in a crowd yanked French President Nicolas Sarkozy by the shoulder Thursday and nearly knocked him to the ground before being tackled by security officers and detained.


Getty Images French President Nicholas Sarkozy

The unusually aggressive incident occurred as the president shook hands with a crowd in the town of Brax in southern France.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:35 | Link to Comment Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Love Love LOVE IT!! He Jerked that @ssclown by the scruff of his Brooke Brothers suit like he intended to clean his clock

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2co6RwmsN8

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:47 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

My God...a peasant slightly touched a Lord? SHOCKING!

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:32 | Link to Comment Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Does anyone keep track of all Goldmen's investment suggestions/predictions? How do they stack up?

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:39 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

they are always right and always wrong

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:33 | Link to Comment Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

Usually Wall Street Layoffs indicate revenue misses and the beginning of a resession. Or at least it has in the past. What do you think this time around? Revenue misses and  Resession? Perhaps the ISM numbers will tell us over the next few days.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:38 | Link to Comment augie
augie's picture

I wouldn't count on the ISM's telling us anything other than what we are suppose to "know."

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:48 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

ISM numbers all collapsing already, what more do you want to see?

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 21:11 | Link to Comment RichyRoo
RichyRoo's picture

In the Australian financial press (Financial Review) this was described as being a result of expected M&A, IPOs and a general increase in banking business predicted post GFC (Global Financial Crisis) not materialising.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:34 | Link to Comment MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

The US sewer GovtSacks needs to be dismantled.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:41 | Link to Comment Mercury
Mercury's picture

It certainly seems like PIMCO, although still a gorilla,  no longer influences the Treasury market like it once did a few short years ago and that PDs are that much more powerful in this regard.  For a Master of the Universe, Bill Gross gets saltier and more grumpy every month.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:45 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well hes got a pretty nice $80 billion cash cushion anyway.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:50 | Link to Comment TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

PMI just out...PUMP IT BABYYYYYY

 

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:56 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

And I'm in position to forward the 75% trade barrier...

 

God I love ALGO's, dumb as fucking stumps....just follow a herd.  For good measure I'm puttin in a single share at 8000.00 dollars and one at zero dollars.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:51 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

SOX taking off today.

Rotating meltup, every day a new sector takes off.

Gold getting slammed.

Perfect day for the PigMen.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:56 | Link to Comment augie
augie's picture

There he is, the man of the hour!

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:53 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

SOX wow thats a new one, Pigmen groupie.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:54 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

BRCM, KLAC, MXIM, LLTC, etc.

All of them are charging hard off the lows.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:59 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

Load gun...

 

bang bang bagn

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 10:24 | Link to Comment Gladio Insurrection
Gladio Insurrection's picture

Reloaded short QQQ @ 56.94 from yesterday.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-us-kleptocracy-too#comment-1...

Looks like I'm in front of a freight train.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 11:46 | Link to Comment Gladio Insurrection
Gladio Insurrection's picture

Stopped out while mowing the lawn.  54bp net gain over two days while being situated completely countertrend, how is that possible robo?

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:55 | Link to Comment Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

What is the difference between Squid and Pimpco?

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:58 | Link to Comment augie
augie's picture

Is that a set up for a joke, or did you just not read the above article yet? 

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 09:55 | Link to Comment TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

None! Both are Benjie's Whores!

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 10:04 | Link to Comment Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

+100 lol

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 14:51 | Link to Comment dcb
dcb's picture

you know I am awful, but keep an eye out for the fake breakout, a but above the buy signal to sucker in the masses ad then a sell off. I can't predict, but it's a feeling I have.

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