Goldman's +/- 0.0001% NFP Estimate: 175,000 (125,000 Census), 9.7% Unemployment

Jan Hatzius, who along with Erik Nielsen, knows what the DOL and the IMF will announce and do about two weeks before the respective agencies do, has come out with his most recent preliminary NFP number. The verdict: +175,000, consisting of 125,000 from the Census. The unemployment rate will remain at 9.7%, unchanged from March's hilarious 9.749% (the gov't just like goldman rounds down the nearest trillion). Still, a bit off from VP Biden's prophecy of half a million jobs created each month "very soon."

From Jan:

Claims Down Modestly But Still at High Levels; Preliminary Payroll Forecast is +175,000
BOTTOM LINE: A mixed report as initial and continuing claims fall modestly but from upward-revised levels, particularly for continuing claims. We expect nonfarm payroll hiring of +175k for April, consisting of underlying hiring of 50k and a census contribution of 125k.

KEY NUMBERS:
Initial claims -11k to 448k in week ended Apr 24 vs. median forecast 445k.
Continuing claims -18k to 4.645 million in week ended Apr 17 vs. median forecast 4.618 million.

MAIN POINTS:
1. Initial claims fall by 11k to 448k in the week ended April 24. (There was a negligible revision of +3k to 459k in the prior week). The 4-week average of initial claims remains high at 463k.

2. While continuing claims fell by 18k to 4.645m in the week ended April 17, they were revised up in the previous week by 17k to 4.663m. Continued claims were therefore essentially flat between the March and April payroll survey weeks. Extended benefits, which are available only through April 10, fell by 91k after falling by 480k the week before. The significant reduction of the number of extended benefits claims since the beginning of April is consistent with the expiration of the extended benefits programs during this time.

3. We expect nonfarm payroll hiring of +175k for April, released next Friday. Our estimate consists of underlying hiring of +50k and a census hiring contribution of 125k. We expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 9.7%. While the strong census hiring might be expected to push down the unemployment rate, the starting point in March is a high 9.7% (at 9.749%). As usual, these forecasts are preliminary and subject to ongoing review over the next week as new information comes to light.

Comments

[The Alarmist]

There are some who might say that it is not that he knows what they will say, rather he is telling them what to say.

[Wily Wonka]

Biden's prediction of 100-200K jobs in April and then 250-500K jobs the months after that scare me. It makes me think this is all rigged. Nah!!!!

Dow 36,000! ;)

[Oracle of Kypseli]

Friends who were hired for the census tell me that they have been hiring many more than they need and train them for 4 days. Some of them get to the pool and start working. Then they lay them off after a while and up to the point that they are not eligible for unemploynment benefits.

Others wait in line for assignments after training.

And they keep going on with rinse and repeat to buid high numbers of supposedly working, since they are not visibly unemployed.

I wonder if this is another style of derivatives 

[vote_libertaria...]

125k census

50k birth/death

net = 0

workforce (population/immigratin) growth = 120k

equals falling behind 120k further

BUY BUY BUY!!!

[kaiserhoff]

Please Tyler,

We must show all due respect to our lords and masters.  The proper title is Bobble-Head-Biden.

[Mitchman]

"As usual, these forecasts are preliminary and subject to ongoing review over the next week as new information comes to light."

In other words, we don't know what the f**k we're talking about but we had to put something out.  Now where's that bonus money?

[Fritz]

Why not make it 300,000? Hell, the sheer fantasy of the Birth/Death numbers can dwarf actual hiring by orders of magnitude.

Hatzius - you're a pussy.  Go big or don't go at all.

[Cursive]

Hatzius - you're a pussy.  Go big or don't go at all.

LOL, Fritz, go easy on him.  He's an "analyst" not a prop desk prospect.

[Mitchman]

I think that the 50,000 is the number the BLS uses.

[RobD]

Well they can add 10% of the company(Bally Technology) that I work for. We lost a senior engineer from our group and if we have another round of layoffs next quarter I could be next. Green shoots! Right.....right? 

[girl money]

Wanna have a little fun?  If you post on CNBS, as soon as the NFP # and it's doofy story pops onto CNBS, pepper the comments section with the title of a layoff or bankruptcy story and the link.  I slap truth on there regularly just for fun.  Love to get under their skin by linking to ZH, too.  Surprised I haven't been kicked off.  Like I'd care.

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com/

[Vulgus Porkulus]

That's very fight cluby-ish of you.

[Grand Supercycle]

Previously mentioned EURO buying support has returned...

MARKET UPDATES:
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-0

[depression]

So it is spoken, So it shall be.

U6 is the number in the BLS series I pay attention to anymore. A good nine months into the recovery and U6 is still drifting slowly higher. I think realistically we are looking at ZIRP for another 9 months++... the headline number would have to get below 8% for the Fed to consider ending ZIRP.

The exhaustion of extended benefits mentioned in Item 2 is troubling:

The significant reduction of the number of extended benefits claims since the beginning of April is consistent with the expiration of the extended benefits programs during this time.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-0430-99ers-20100430,0,422725.story