Goldman's "Advance" Look On Payroll: Look Out Below
Goldman's NFP forecasts have an eerie ability to be +/- 3 people of the actual payroll number. Which is why those expecting an upside surprise to tomorrow's payroll number may be unpleasantly surprised. Just released by Jan Hatzius of GS:
Downgrading Our Sept Payroll Forecast
BOTTOM LINE: We are changing our forecast for the September change in nonfarm payrolls to -
250,000 from -200,000. We continue to think that the unemployment rate will be reported at 9.8%.KEY POINTS:
1. The latest data points on the US job market have been disappointing on balance, including the Monster index of on-line hiring, the ISM employment index, consumers’ assessments of job availability, and the total number of individuals receiving continuing claims for unemployment insurance, including those for extended benefits. Accordingly, we now expect nonfarm payrolls to be reported at -250,000 in tomorrow’s labor market report for September versus a previous forecast of - 200,000.
2. Although many of the same indicators would suggest a larger increase in the unemployment rate than the 0.1-point we have been expecting, the new information is not quite enough to warrant a change, especially since the 9.7% reported for August rounded up to that level. However, risks lie to the side of a higher figure.
h/t H.I.
(3 votes)
»
- Login or register to post comments
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 13:03
#85433
Maybe they know the true number is 230k and they merely want it to "beat expectations"
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 14:07
#85522
Could be... but you would need a concerted effort to move the consensus higher than 200k at the last minute.
It is sort of interesting to see the subtle change in tone at Goldman transform over the past 48 hours. Yesterday, they turned cautious on real estate. Now... unemployment.
It's either another "pump & dump"... or maybe this time they have already positioned themselves for the flight to quality trade.
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 15:35
#85660
It does feel more like a sea change is being ridden/generated.
There was after all no capitulation at the bottom - remains to be seen how far this ride will take us.
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 13:04
#85434
Vampire squid leak count = 1, ethical Washington bureaucrats = 0
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 13:07
#85442
Whatever, the BLS statistics have all these statistics as 40-50% too low. It's all crap anyways.
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 13:10
#85446
Sensing a pump job coming soon...just a hunch...but looks like we may close with a drop of less than 1%.
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 13:12
#85448
what are the analyst "expectations" -175k?
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 13:12
#85450
So they pump the market while it's going up, but when it reverses they ahem, politely turn bearish. Fucking pigs.
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 13:30
#85474
I don't like GS any more than anyone here, but that is the whole idea and it sure beats being bearish for six months and turning bullish on Oct 1, eh?
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 13:31
#85461
It's not the truth that's important. It never was and it never will be. It's what the people think the truth is that counts and that can be easily manipulated.
Perception IS reality and the corporate media have that dialed in.
But that doesn't mean ZH (or any other truth telling blog) should ever stop. There is reason for hope.
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 13:33
#85479
It take two for a lie to work. Fortunately for Goldman, the American people will believe a-n-y-t-h-i-n-g.
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 14:13
#85529
how very reflexive of you, CD...
OR SHOULD I SAY GEORGE SOROS - ah ha!!!
:p
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 13:21
#85467
Vampire squid is perking electronic trading in India.
http://www.livemint.com/2009/09/29215738/Algorithmic-trading-uptake-in.html?h=A2
NSE started charging penalty for unexecuted orders after fed up with them.
http://www.nseindia.com/content/circulars/faac13029.pdf
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 13:33
#85478
I agree with BabaJ - I bet GS is setting up for a beat of the estimate so they can run the market up. They are definitely one of the master manipulators
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 16:38
#85769
This type of commentary is just embarrassing. This is one step away from blaming "bad blood" for your cough.
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 22:30
#86118
ain't that humorous
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 13:36
#85485
Notice there's no Obama "heads up" this time how the stimulus is helping the jobs market!
Maybe he's wise to be in Denmark :-)
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 13:49
#85497
If THEY say it, so it will be!
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 13:50
#85500
In past years, Goldman was a premier investment firm. Today, they are nothing more than WHORES, acting as an unofficial branch of the U.S. Government. The managing partners in this firm need to bring a stop to this type nonsense. We are hearing daily, that large clients of the firm are increasingly moving their business away from Goldman for these reasons. Sooner or later goldman's partners will wake up...
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 14:45
#85579
Hey there LB...
85500's comment is kind of what I was referring to the other nite....I know that you got my memo.
I honestly have no way of knowing if you are losing clients but if you are, you certainly have even bigger problems than I would have imagined. Either way, the American people (not only Obama's base, but those "conservatives" and Republicans alike) are really quite fed up with the wall street/banking fiasco and as I said before, Goldman Sachs is the personification of this mess in their minds.
tick tock, tick tock
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 20:11
#86012
I agree, personally know of 3 largest institutions in Asia, one very prominent SWF have pulled all trades and advisory jobs from GS this year. Not sure whether this was before or after Matt's article in Vanity F though.
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 13:59
#85513
There was some economic number overseas that disappointed overnight, but the EUR/USD absolutely tanked 15 mins ahead of it. I was watching it and wondered what was up - wasn't confirmed by any other FX pair. Then the headline hit (seriously can't remember what the number was), and the other currencies promptly jerked in reaction. But EUR/USD held, it had already been factored in.
Thought it a nice coincidence to the PMI in the states. Flashing has now been relocated.
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 14:14
#85531
EVERYTHING is bullshit, especially involving Goldman Sucks!
The Truth Is Out There is also bullshit, as nothing out there is the truth.
There are damn few places where I get CREDIBLE information/news. Those few being, ZeroHedge, MarketTicker, MineSet, LeMetropole Cafe (GATA), Campaign for Liberty (Dr. Paul).
EVERYTHING else is goddamn bullshit.
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 14:25
#85553
I hate to support GS, but there's pretty much no way they couldn't downgrade their forcast for tomorrow's employment data. Every thing this week has been worse then forcast, Chicago PMI, ADP, new claims. I also hate them for being rich, but at least I admit its simple envy. I'd like to see a real study of the accuracy of their forcasts relative to those few investment houses left.
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 15:45
#85685
$200/barrel oil by December 2008 was one memorable GS forecast. And to think I lost a bet because I predicted a much more modest $100.
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 21:44
#86076
That's an anecdote, not a study!
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 14:47
#85583
"Goldman's NFP forecasts have an eerie ability to be +/- 3 people..."
This one is a gem.
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 14:48
#85584
Lowered their forecast now? It was just on Tuesday that the rumour was Goldman telling clients to expect a **positive** jobs number on Friday (which limited the negative reaction to the lower CB consumer confidence number, and effectively held up the markets).
Isn't this a fun game in which we all partake?!!
~prairie_p
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 15:22
#85642
Second month in a row where the squid updates its NFP estimates during the middle of the day on Thursday before NFP is announced. It's becoming a trend of theirs.
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 16:12
#85733
All this tells me is that after the run up, goldman is now short.
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 16:21
#85744
Yeah they lowered it within a 1K last month. Seems to cute I wonder if the Gov beats that number so they can hammer the shorts.
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 00:13
#86143
I don't think there are too many shorts left.
I think they're trying t justify in advance how they will only have two losing trading days this quarter as well.
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 16:57
#85803
I'm amazed that there are people here who still have doubts on whether GS's profits are ill-gotten or not.
Privileged, inside information is the life-blood of GS.
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 17:04
#85809
I will be really surprised if tomorrow's number doesn't beat their new expectation # of -250K.
No way is GS going against the Government's plan for a continuing bull market.
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 21:54
#86088
I don't think they have inside information, I just think they manipulate the numbers better than others.
There are a lot of stupid people out there, and goldman guys just skate around them.
If you don't believe me just watch CNBC for a few hours.
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 17:45
#85861
"Goldman's NFP forecasts have an eerie ability to be +/- 3 people of the actual payroll number"
F'in hilarious. Made my day!
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 22:22
#86110
Yen crosses getting all melty-downy tonight ...
on Thu, 10/01/2009 - 22:52
#86125
Ergo -275k. Scumbags!
on Fri, 10/02/2009 - 07:32
#86224
The unemployment rate is at 9.8%, the worst since June of 1983. Jobs lost total 263,000.