Goldman's "Advance" Look On Payroll: Look Out Below
Goldman's NFP forecasts have an eerie ability to be +/- 3 people of the actual payroll number. Which is why those expecting an upside surprise to tomorrow's payroll number may be unpleasantly surprised. Just released by Jan Hatzius of GS:
Downgrading Our Sept Payroll Forecast
BOTTOM LINE: We are changing our forecast for the September change in nonfarm payrolls to -
250,000 from -200,000. We continue to think that the unemployment rate will be reported at 9.8%.
1. The latest data points on the US job market have been disappointing on balance, including the Monster index of on-line hiring, the ISM employment index, consumers’ assessments of job availability, and the total number of individuals receiving continuing claims for unemployment insurance, including those for extended benefits. Accordingly, we now expect nonfarm payrolls to be reported at -250,000 in tomorrow’s labor market report for September versus a previous forecast of - 200,000.
2. Although many of the same indicators would suggest a larger increase in the unemployment rate than the 0.1-point we have been expecting, the new information is not quite enough to warrant a change, especially since the 9.7% reported for August rounded up to that level. However, risks lie to the side of a higher figure.